DVOA Articles

NFL DVOA

September 10, 2024

Week 1 DVOA: The Saints March In

Just how much does it mean for the New Orleans Saints to destroy a bad opponent in Week 1?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

September 9, 2024

Week 1 Quick Reads: Baker Mayfield’s Career Day

One NFC South quarterback had the best day of his career yesterday, but it may not be the one you expected. Plus, all the DYAR stats from Week 1.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

September 4, 2024

2024 DVOA Projections

Updated 2024 projections are here, with San Francisco as our Super Bowl LIX favorites.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

September 3, 2024

Preseason Award Picks Part II

More analysis of NFL awards for 2024, looking at Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and who will win the Super Bowl in New Orleans.

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

September 3, 2024

Preseason Award Picks Part I

Bryan and Cale take a look at the most likely award winners for 2024: the best bets, the strong longshots, and the best values.

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 28, 2024

AFC West Over/Unders 2024

Is anybody going to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West? No, but you can still bet on the over/unders for those other teams!

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 26, 2024

AFC South Over/Unders 2024

The AFC South is now an exciting division where all four teams have a quarterback on a rookie contract. Can the other three teams stop the Houston Texans?

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 21, 2024

AFC North Over/Unders 2024

Who will win the NFL's most lauded division? Can the Ravens dominate again, are the Bengals back, or is it all about the Browns defense?

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 19, 2024

AFC East Over/Unders 2024

Can the Dolphins get past the Bills? Will the Jets finally put up the big season with Aaron Rodgers? How bad are the Patriots?

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 14, 2024

NFC West Over/Unders 2024

Can anyone catch the 49ers in the NFC West, or even the whole NFC? Are the Rams and Seahawks going to go over or under their season win totals?

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 12, 2024

NFC South Over/Unders 2024

Could the Saints be the NFC South favorites? Could the Bucs repeat? Or is it time for the Falcons and new QB Kirk Cousins?

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 7, 2024

NFC North Over/Unders 2024

Can the Packers carry over last year's late success? Are the Lions really Super Bowl contenders? Plus the Bears and Vikings.

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

August 5, 2024

NFC East Over/Unders 2024

Are the Eagles properly the favorite in the NFC East? Are the Commanders on the rise? Plus, Cowboys and Giants.

Bryan Knowles

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

July 31, 2024

Slot vs. Wide 2023: Defenses

Let's take a look at which defenses and cornerbacks were best against receivers in the slot vs. out wide in 2023.

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

July 23, 2024

Quarterbacks Throwing to the Slot vs. Wide 2023

Looking at how QBs did throwing wide vs. to the slot in 2023. Was Patrick Mahomes' "off year" entirely based on screens and quick outs?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

July 18, 2024

RB/TE in the Slot in 2023

Taking a look at which running backs and tight ends get the most usage and have the most success when lined up in WR positions.

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

July 16, 2024

Slot vs. Wide 2023: Wide Receivers

Taking a look at which WR succeeded in the slot vs. out wide in 2023. Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb may surprise you!

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

July 8, 2024

FTN Football Almanac 2025: PRESALE!

Learn more about the FTN Football Almanac 2024, plus download the free sample L.A. Chargers chapter!

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

July 3, 2024

Defensive Plus-Minus and YAC+ 2023

Taking a look at which defenses were best at preventing completions and YAC given the location of the passes against them, led by the Browns, Ravens, and Jets.

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

June 26, 2024

2023 YAC+: Another Huge 49ers Year

Taking a look at which receivers had the most YAC over expectation in 2023, a stat where the 49ers always do very well.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

June 18, 2024

Receiving Plus-Minus for 2023

Looking at the most efficient receivers in 2023: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and... Evan Engram?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

June 11, 2024

Passing Plus-Minus for 2023

Something Derek Carr was good at: completing passes compared to expectation. Brock Purdy was even better.

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

June 4, 2024

Caused Pressure Rate for 2023 Offenses

Can we learn something from how often offensive pressure is caused by a blown block? The Arizona offensive line says yes.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

May 28, 2024

Defense by Number of Pass Rushers 2023

We know the Vikings blitzed more than anyone else in 2023. Were they good at it?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

May 22, 2024

Defenses and Pressure 2023

The Lions got a ton of pass pressure, and they needed it because of secondary issues. Plus more defensive numbers from 2023!

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

May 14, 2024

QBs Under Pressure in 2023

Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

May 9, 2024

Fantasy Football: The Early Days

An excerpt from the new book "The History of Fantasy Sports" takes a look at the roots of fantasy football, during the early days of the AFL in Oakland.

Shaun Evans

NFL DVOA

May 7, 2024

Failed Completions 2023

A stat where Brock Purdy was great and Patrick Mahomes was poor? It also wasn't a great year for Bryce Young or Derek Carr when it came to complete passes that still were unsuccessful plays.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

May 2, 2024

2024 NFL Draft Report Card Report

Here's our annual look at draft report cards. It was a good year in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia!

Cale Clinton

NFL DVOA

April 24, 2024

Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Defense

Are teams trying to get smaller at defensive back? Plus more defensive numbers from 2023.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

April 23, 2024

Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Offense

Shanahan and McVay influenced coaches like their teams smaller, while the Ravens go big.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

April 16, 2024

The 2018 NFL Draft, Six Years Later

What does it mean that analytics did such a bad job of projecting Josh Allen and the other quarterbacks of 2018? We look at the whole draft with the advantage of time.

Bryan Knowles