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Week 11 Quick Reads: Good QBs Have Bad Days

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Now including Monday Night Football.

Did Lamar Jackson blow the MVP award with a bad game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday? The idea seems silly, but there was a lot of talk along those lines on social media. Jackson didn’t have such a bad day when you consider the defense he was facing, and more importantly, great quarterbacks rarely get through the season without at least one stinker.

Lamar Jackson finished 16th out of 26 quarterbacks on Sunday with 53 DYAR: 32 passing and 21 rushing. That would be 23 YAR without the opponent adjustment for playing the Steelers. So Jackson’s bad game wasn’t even “below replacement level.”

I went back and took a look at the 10 different quarterback seasons where a quarterback put up at least 2,000 passing DYAR since 1979. In only two of these 10 seasons did the quarterback not have a game with passing DYAR as low as the 32 DYAR that Jackson had against the Steelers. Even the greatest quarterbacks have a bad game once or twice in their greatest seasons. The exceptions are Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Peyton Manning in 2004.

Here’s a look at the top 10 quarterback seasons by passing DYAR, and the worst game of each season by DYAR:

Worst Pass DYAR Game in Best Pass DYAR Seasons, 1979-2023
Year Player Wk Opp DYAR Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk
2007 Tom Brady 15 NYJ -32 14 27 130 0 1 1
2013 Peyton Manning 12 NE -102 19 36 150 2 1 2
1984 Dan Marino 9 BUF 9 19 28 282 3 3 1
2004 Peyton Manning 5 OAK 69 16 26 198 3 1 1
2006 Peyton Manning 11 DAL -99 20 39 254 2 2 2
2011 Drew Brees 8 STL -53 30 44 269 1 2 6
2011 Aaron Rodgers 15 KC 9 17 35 235 1 0 4
2012 Tom Brady 16 JAX -25 24 41 267 2 2 3
2018 Patrick Mahomes 5 JAX 53 22 38 313 0 2 1
2009 Tom Brady 12 NO -3 21 36 237 0 2 1

Jackson is no longer on pace to join this group. He’s got 1,261 passing DYAR, which puts him on pace for 1,949 DYAR in 17 games. However, Jackson is way, way ahead of the rest of the NFL quarterbacks this season. Joe Burrow is now second at 837 passing DYAR, so the gap between Jackson and everybody else is equal to the gap between No. 2 Burrow and No. 12 Jordan Love Jackson also leads the NFL quarterbacks in rushing DYAR.

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