2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Now including Monday Night Football.
Did Lamar Jackson blow the MVP award with a bad game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday? The idea seems silly, but there was a lot of talk along those lines on social media. Jackson didn’t have such a bad day when you consider the defense he was facing, and more importantly, great quarterbacks rarely get through the season without at least one stinker.
Lamar Jackson finished 16th out of 26 quarterbacks on Sunday with 53 DYAR: 32 passing and 21 rushing. That would be 23 YAR without the opponent adjustment for playing the Steelers. So Jackson’s bad game wasn’t even “below replacement level.”
I went back and took a look at the 10 different quarterback seasons where a quarterback put up at least 2,000 passing DYAR since 1979. In only two of these 10 seasons did the quarterback not have a game with passing DYAR as low as the 32 DYAR that Jackson had against the Steelers. Even the greatest quarterbacks have a bad game once or twice in their greatest seasons. The exceptions are Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Peyton Manning in 2004.
Here’s a look at the top 10 quarterback seasons by passing DYAR, and the worst game of each season by DYAR:
| Worst Pass DYAR Game in Best Pass DYAR Seasons, 1979-2023 | ||||||||||
| Year | Player | Wk | Opp | DYAR | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | 15 | NYJ | -32 | 14 | 27 | 130 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 12 | NE | -102 | 19 | 36 | 150 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 1984 | Dan Marino | 9 | BUF | 9 | 19 | 28 | 282 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | 5 | OAK | 69 | 16 | 26 | 198 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Peyton Manning | 11 | DAL | -99 | 20 | 39 | 254 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | 8 | STL | -53 | 30 | 44 | 269 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | 15 | KC | 9 | 17 | 35 | 235 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2012 | Tom Brady | 16 | JAX | -25 | 24 | 41 | 267 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 5 | JAX | 53 | 22 | 38 | 313 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 2009 | Tom Brady | 12 | NO | -3 | 21 | 36 | 237 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Jackson is no longer on pace to join this group. He’s got 1,261 passing DYAR, which puts him on pace for 1,949 DYAR in 17 games. However, Jackson is way, way ahead of the rest of the NFL quarterbacks this season. Joe Burrow is now second at 837 passing DYAR, so the gap between Jackson and everybody else is equal to the gap between No. 2 Burrow and No. 12 Jordan Love Jackson also leads the NFL quarterbacks in rushing DYAR.
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