Predicting 2023 Stat Leaders

Bryan Knowles: Welcome back to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA preseason picks! Earlier this week, we looked at our best bets for the NFL’s end-of-season awards. Today, we’re going a little more objective, predicting the leaders in the major statistical categories. Voters might take away a well-deserved MVP or DPOY campaign. But the only one who can take away well-earned rushing yards is a bad call from a referee, and what are the odds of that happening?

Cale Clinton: This is a much more quantitative discussion–and in my opinion, a more fun article–than an end-of-year awards discussion. Trying to come up with an MVP is more or less a creative writing exercise, coming up with potential storylines and comparing head-canon narratives. With season-long stat leaders, at least there is material to build off of. This is an exercise in examining opportunity and making educated guesses, with only a hint of creative storytelling.

Editors’ Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly, and can differ from site to site. These specific odds all come from DraftKings and were all correct as of time of writing.

Most Passing Yards

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: I believe in Kellen Moore. Or, perhaps, to be more accurate, I anti-believe in Joe Lombardi. It was somewhat defensible to have Justin Herbert (+600) dink and dunk early in the season, when he was still recovering from fractured rib cartilage. It was somewhat less defensible for that to continue throughout the entire year, to the point where Herbert nearly set a record for failed completions. With Moore calling the shots, and Quentin Johnston added to stretch the field more, I like Herbert’s chances of putting up huge numbers.

Cale: There’s something very enticing about that Josh Allen line of +900. I’m concerned by the lack of receiving talent behind Stefon Diggs, but so many of them can attack vertically. Gabe Davis led the league in ADOT among receivers (min. 50 targets). Dalton Kincaid was the only tight end in college football last year to get 10 or more targets 20+ yards downfield. Deonte Harty averaged nearly 16 yards per reception during his breakout 2021 season. Trent Sherfield’s 75-yard up-the-seam touchdown against San Francisco is burned in my brain. All those players are working under Ken Dorsey, who constantly dialed up downfield action for Allen his first year calling plays. If the supporting cast steps up, it can really open up the door for one of the league’s best arms.

The Field

Bryan: Kirk Cousins (+1300) is a fine NFL quarterback. He’s fine! Could be better. While he’s never led the league in passing yards, he’s been in the top 10 in six of the past seven seasons and routinely hovers around 265 passing yards per game – you need about 300 to lead the league. Where might those extra 35 yards per game come from? Well, what about covering for the projected 32nd-ranked defense in the league? The Vikings, unlikely to be as lucky as last year, will have to rely on plenty of Cousins-to-Justin Jefferson miracles to try stay competitive. That’s a great recipe for passing yards! On similar “we’re going to need to throw ten zillion times” paths, I like Matthew Stafford (+2500) and, why not, Bryce Young (+8000), if you want a true longshot.

Cale: If you are a real believer in the Geno Smith (+3500) Renaissance, why not sprinkle some money on his odds? Seattle’s passing percentage moved up about three percentage points moving from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith. The result: Smith finished eighth in the league in total pass attempts and passing yards. Now Seattle could have one of the best receiving trios in the league and an even more confident Geno. Jordan Love (+5500) also led the league in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) in his limited sample size last year. Imagine LaFleur worked some magic and he extended that for a whole season?

Most Passing Touchdowns

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: Ah, here’s where I go Patrick Mahomes (+275). Picking last year’s leader is neither fun nor exciting, but chalk is chalk for a reason. Barring injury or Travis Kelce suddenly falling off of a cliff, Mahomes seems almost a stone-cold lock to lead the league in touchdowns, considering what he did with the motley crew the Chiefs had at wideout last season. The real question is how many of those touchdowns will be normal, and how many will be crazy, left-handed, behind the back and through the legs nonsense. He’s just on a different level to anyone else.

Cale: Yeah, Mahomes led the league in pass attempts in the red zone last year. The big plays generated in Kansas City’s offense are one thing, but opportunity is incredibly important. On volume alone, Mahomes is going to be in the best position to lead the league.

The Field

Bryan: Mahomes is also my best bet. If, for some reason, I wasn’t allowed to pick him, I’d be going for more longshot-types. What if Lamar Jackson (+3000) finally has a receiving corps worth caring about in Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman? He hasn’t hit 30 passing touchdowns since he led the league during his MVP season in 2019, but he also has been playing with random, bargain-basement receivers since then. Maybe he stays healthy and thrives in Todd Monken’s passing attack. Or, if you want a real deep shot, let’s go with Brock Purdy (+4000). He threw a touchdown on 7.6% of his passes in 2022, leading the league for players with at least 150 attempts – Mahomes, by comparison, was next at 6.3%. Some small sample size regression is likely coming for Purdy … but what if it doesn’t?

Cale: By my logic of “Let’s bet on all the high-volume red zone passers,” let’s look at the quarterback with the second-most red zone pass attempts. That’ll be…Kirk Cousins (+2000)? You heard that right. And I don’t hate the bet, either. Cousins has quietly finished top-10 in passing touchdowns four of the last five years and finished fifth in 2022. If we really want to run this metric into the ground, let’s talk about Baker Mayfield (+6500). Tom Brady finished third in the league in red zone pass attempts. Tampa Bay attempted the highest rate of pass plays last year while simultaneously rostering the league’s worst rushing offense. The opportunity’s there, the team and the name are the only things scaring me off.

Most Rushing Yards

Top Five

The Favorites

Cale: I again find myself drawn to the favorite. Nick Chubb (+450) has three straight top-five rushing DYAR seasons and led the league in both rushing DVOA (19.3%) and DYAR (340). The departure of Kareem Hunt opens up 123 rushing attempts. Those will get split some way between Chubb, Jerome Ford (8 carries for 12 yards in 2022), and Pierre Strong (10 carries for 100 yards in 2022 with New England). Chubb is going to get a massive workload this year, enough to potentially secure his first career rushing title.

Bryan: Before Jonathan Taylor went on the PUP list, I was going to pick him – the Colts are going to need to lean on him heavily while Anthony Richardson gets through his rookie struggles, so certainly, they’d value their top running back, right? Ahem. Anyway, with Hamlet going on in Indianapolis, I’ll turn instead to Derrick Henry (+650). This is about volume more than anything else; Henry has led the league in rushing attempts in three of the past four seasons, with Tennessee absolutely willing to let him run until the wheels fall off. While I question how long he can carry that kind of workload – and, indeed, he isn’t the same explosive player as he was even two years ago – in a world of committee backs, volume is sometimes king.

The Field

Bryan: I’m not in love with any of the names near the top of the list, honestly. A rookie at +1000? The franchise tag holdouts at +1500 apiece? Chubb is a good shout to lead the league, too, but +450 is tough for any running back. No, I think I’m going to have to go longshots here if I’m not siding with the volume king. Kenneth Walker (+3000) was explosive but inconsistent, which is why Seattle went out and drafted Zach Charbonnet. If Walker can just up his success rate a little bit, however, he could end up keeping the lion’s share of the carries, just as he did after Rashaad Penny went down last year. Volume plus explosion plus a little bit more consistency equals a rushing leader, right?

Cale: Yeah, I’m also struggling to find any value in the middle swaths of this list. A lot of premier RB2s muck things up for the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, and Aaron Jones. I have some faith in J.K. Dobbins (+3500) carrying a big workload for Baltimore. He’s another year removed from injury and the Ravens running back room is less crowded than in years past. I just get worried about how much the Monken offense changes the Ravens’ run rate. Beyond Dobbins, there’s no one with longer odds that’s worth reaching on.

Bryan: It’s also worth noting that the leaders in yards per carry these days are all quarterbacks. Is this the year that a quarterback leads the league in rushing yards? No. But just in case it is, Lamar Jackson (+5500) and you heard it here first.

Most Rushing Touchdowns

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: We list the top five favorites, with an arbitrary cutoff after that. But there’s actually a tie for fifth here, with Jacobs having the same odds as Jalen Hurts (+1300). His 13 rushing touchdowns a year ago was one off the all-time record for quarterbacks and tied for second for players last year, just behind Jamaal Williams‘ outlier season (he had 45 rushing attempts inside the 10; no one else had more than 26). With Williams’ workload to be dramatically reduced, Hurts is kinda-sorta your defending champion. So why not? Until the Unstoppable Push Sneak is stopped, he’s my guy.

Cale: Just going to keep mashing the Nick Chubb (+850) button here. The rationale is pretty similar to my argument in the Most Rushing Yards category. Chubb already took a ton of red zone work in 2022. His 41 red zone carries were ninth-most among running backs. The departure of Kareem Hunt opens up another 25 red zone carries. Ford and Strong are pretty girthy running backs, but Chubb is still the biggest of the trio.

The Field

Bryan: Alexander Mattison (+2500) had a 52.5% DVOA in the red zone in 2022; it was only on 14 carries but he was more effective than Dalvin Cook at that end of the field. DeWayne McBride‘s release takes away his primary competition for touches at the goal line in Minnesota, too. If the Vikings’ offense is better than we project it to be, Mattison could easily end up with double-digit touchdowns. I also think J.K. Dobbins (+4500) is worth a deep flier. Dobbins had nine rushing touchdowns on just 134 attempts the last time we saw him healthy. The Ravens swear he’s good to go now, and while I’m not fully sure I believe that, I’m fine with believing that at 45-to-1 in the Baltimore offense.

Cale: I know he’s more a dual threat back than goalline fiend, but Austin Ekeler (+1400) finished with the third-most red zone rushing attempts among running backs. A healthy offensive line and some Kellen Moore creativity could open up scoring opportunities for Ekeler as a rusher. My real favorite on this list is much deeper. Give me all the Damien Harris (+5000) stock. I’m using the 2022 Lions formula here: a cheap veteran gets the goalline touches in place of the lighter, more agile young guy. Eventually that veteran RB2 takes over the lead rushing role completely. Harris got the lead goalline work in his preseason debut for the Bills. In has only season with more than 11 games played, Harris punched it in 15 times. 10 of those came inside the 10-yard-line, and eight came inside of five yards.

Most Receiving Yards

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: Well, let me see. Is Justin Jefferson (+550) still the best receiver in football? Yes. Are the Vikings going to be terrible this year and need to be throwing a zillion times to catch up? Yes. Alright, then, case closed there. I don’t know if he’ll hit 1,800 yards again; that’s a hard mark to clear. But Jefferson is entering “bet against him at your own risk” territory, and +550 isn’t nearly short enough odds for me to be scared off.

Cale: No reason for us to go all Boring and Snoring, picking Justin Jefferson for all the receiver props. Let’s have some fun. Tyreek Hill (+900) had Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson throwing to him for five games last year and he still managed to put up the second-most receiving yards (1,710) on a top-five yards per target (10.1). Hill joined Davante Adams as the only two receivers with a target share above 30%, and he’ll likely have to repeat that this year for Miami to be successful. Give him a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, and Hill’s ceiling is Megatron’s receiving record.

The Field

Bryan: Cooper Kupp (+800) still in the top five at time of writing, despite his hamstring flaring up? Hrm. I might use FTN’s Prop Shop to find slightly better odds there; you can find him as low as +1300 if you shop around some. For the right value, I still like Kupp; he’ll get healthy sooner rather than later (one can only hope). +800 isn’t good enough, but you can find better values on him elsewhere.

Down the list, CeeDee Lamb (+2200) has some solid odds. I’m as concerned with Mike McCarthy as the next guy, but Lamb should see even more work with a full season of Prescott at quarterback and no obvious answer at tight end to take away his volume in the slot. And for a true longshot, Tee Higgins (+6000). If something happens to Ja’Marr Chase, I think Higgins can absorb a huge chunk of his volume without losing too much – he has had a higher DVOA and DYAR for two straight years, although route-based DYAR puts Chase higher where he belongs. You never want to root for injuries, but the Bengals might have the best option to step in if one of the tippy-top guys gets hurt.

Cale: Has a tight end ever led the league in receiving? Nope, but if one did, it would be Travis Kelce (+2200). In a receiving room full of young unknowns and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kelce is the rock Mahomes can lean on. There’s a world where the top receivers on this list–Jefferson, Hill, Chase, Adams–get targets vultured off of them by competent receivers beneath them, and Kelce gets a huge chunk of Kansas City’s work. Speaking of those strong WR2s, Jaylen Waddle (+3500) deserves a flier. Couple the logic of the Hill pick with the circumstances of Bryan’s Higgins pick. Waddle finished seventh in the league in receiving yards on a league-leading 11.6 yards per target as a WR2.

Most Receiving Touchdowns

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: Have no fear, Bengals fans; here’s where I’m hitting Ja’Marr Chase (+400). Chase finished sixth with nine receiving touchdowns last season despite missing five games; 0.75 touchdowns per game was second behind Davante Adams for qualified receivers last season. And with Adams swapping out Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo, Chase is your leader in the clubhouse for “most likely to break the hearts of opposing fanbases”.

Cale: Travis Kelce (+500) has an even better argument for leading the league in receiving touchdowns than he does for leading in receiving yards, but let’s take a player with just as much opportunity at a better value. Stefon Diggs (+1200) set a new career-high 11 touchdowns, topping the career high 10 touchdowns he set in 2021. Diggs has drawn 150 or more targets each year he’s been in Buffalo. In 2022, 24 of those targets came in the redzone, sixth most among all players. Diggs has the volume and the opportunity to take home a receiving touchdowns title, all while in a vertical offense equipped for breakaway scores.

The Field

Bryan: I like Chase better than any of the other short-odds players, so let’s go diving for value. Taking Tyreek Hill (+2200) is fun; it seems bizarre that Hill’s odds are so low for any receiving-based prop but, sure enough, he’s only had double-digit receiving touchdowns twice in his career. That feels low, right? Hill was such a perfect fit for the Dolphins’ offense that it seems like he should be getting touchdowns every other game at a minimum as the offense runs through him. It should be noted that all seven of his receiving touchdowns came from Tua Tagovailoa; give him a healthy Tagovailoa all season, and maybe things take off. If you like to live dangerously, I quite like taking a flier on Mark Andrews (+5000). Perhaps his target share will drop off some now that Baltimore employs professional wide receivers, but, at the same time, it should give Andrews more room to work with underneath and in the red zone. If Baltimore’s offense really does take off, it’s worth a fiver, at any rate.

Cale: If you’re all in on the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets, Garrett Wilson (+1800) is a sound (albeit steep) investment. It would be a massive leap from Wilson’s team-leading four receiving touchdowns as a rookie, but you can just remember the Zach Wilson/Joe Flacco days and hand-wave that away. The connection between Wilson and Rodgers is well documented, and Rodgers compared Wilson to former Packers receiver Davante Adams on multiple occasions. Adams led the league in receiving touchdowns in 2020 during Rodgers’ MVP campaign. Why can’t Wilson do the same in a sophomore breakout? If you’re riding the Lions hype train, Amon-Ra St. Brown (+4500) has some decent value. Detroit can no longer feed Jamaal Williams on the goal line. Jameson Williams’ six-game suspension gives St. Brown a head start to do some damage, and the rest of the receiving corps doesn’t serve much of a threat to impede the Sun God’s fantasy upside. My moonshot: Hunter Henry (+10000). Henry was Mac Jones’s prime red zone target in 2021, scoring nine touchdown 20 yards or less. Bill O’Brien’s lone season as Patriots offensive coordinator saw Rob Gronkowski haul in a league-leading 17 touchdowns. Hey, it could happen!

Most Sacks

Top Five

Nick Bosa: +550
Myles Garrett: +650
Micah Parsons: +750
T.J. Watt: +850
Haason Reddick: +1800

The Favorites

Cale: I know the current contract holdout is putting this bet in jeopardy, but I still like a 15- or 14-game Nick Bosa (+550) against anyone in the field with 17 games. The gravity that Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead carry in the middle of the field makes it extremely difficult to send extra protection Bosa’s way. It’s a pick-your-poison defensive line that helped Bosa generate 18.5 sacks in 2022. He did that in 16 games with less talented surrounding personnel.

Bryan: While I still believe Bosa will sign in time for the season, that belief is getting more and more a matter of hope than a matter of certainty (though, I suppose, there’s every chance he’s signed by the time you’re reading this and I will look remarkably silly). With that in mind, I’ll play things a little safer and go with Myles Garrett (+650). Garrett is the only player in the league with double-digit sacks in each of the past five seasons, a level of consistency which makes him the safest bet here.

The Field

Bryan: There’s a name missing from the top five that I feel should probably be included, and that’s Maxx Crosby (+2500). I suspect some of the reasoning behind Crosby’s low total is that the Raiders are expected to be bad, which would lead to opponents running the ball more to drain the clock, which would lead to lower sack totals. But the Raiders were 6-11 last year, and Crosby still hit 12.5 sacks. Getting a double-digit sack producer at this value is too good to pass up.

I also rather like Rashaan Gary (+7500). Gary had six sacks in his first six games last season, but a torn ACL ended his year early. He’ll be on a snap count to start the season, working back into full fitness, but if he gets ready sooner rather than later, he could have sneaky value.

Cale: DeMeco Ryans could turn Will Anderson (+5000) into his pet project and unleash the former Alabama product on the NFL. To see this cash would be asking for a lot of history to be made. The rookie sack record was set by Jevon Kearse’s 14.5-sack debut in 1999. The season sack leader hasn’t been that low since 1996; in the last 10 years, the total has only dropped below 17.0 twice. It’s a huge ask, but Ryans and Steve Wilks could dump all their skill tree points into the Will Anderson bucket. There’s no one else on that Texans roster threatening the quarterback, and the AFC South offensive lines are weak enough to juice the numbers.