DVOA Preseason Award Picks

Bryan Knowles: This looks…familiar. Vaguely familiar, at any rate.

Welcome friends old and new to the FTN DVOA preseason award picks! For years at our previous home, we have gone through the NFL’s list of end-of-season awards, carefully pieced through all of our DVOA projections and data, used careful consideration to account for all possible variables, and came up with unique, irreplaceable insights like “Patrick Mahomes is very good”. You can’t get that sort of analysis anywhere else, folks.

Cale Clinton: New home, same familiar faces! It feels good to be days away from real football. After weeks of sweating out camp battles and deciphering whether preseason reps against third-stringers mean anything, we finally have something meaningful to sink our teeth into. Here’s to speculating on the season to come one last time.

Bryan: As a reminder, for each prop, we’re picking a favorite – the player we think most likely to win the category, regardless of the odds given. However, we’re also highlighting the players we think are the best bets, the best value for your money, as well as a long shot or two for the truly inveterate gamblers out there.

Cale: If you like any of our player picks and want to find the best odds in your state with FTN’s Prop Shop. Plug in the state you legally bet in, type in any player’s name to the Prop Shop window, and you’ll find a curated list of props from all the major sportsbooks in your state.

Bryan: So come and go with us; it’s more fun to share. Let’s make some predictions that will look incredibly stupid in about eight weeks, shall we?

Editors’ Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly, and can differ from site to site. These specific odds all come from either Caesar’s or DraftKings and were all correct as of time of writing.

Most Valuable Player

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: It’s been 11 years since a non-quarterback won MVP, when Adrian Peterson had his 2,000-yard rushing season in 2012. Since then, this has become the “best quarterback in the league” award, and there’s little reason to go against that this year. Patrick Mahomes (+600) until proven otherwise.

Cale: For the sake of variety, I like Josh Allen (+750) out of the top three. 2022 felt like an off-year capped off by a playoff loss somehow more disappointing than 13 Seconds. That still understates how good Allen was despite working with a new offensive coordinator and a limited receiving corps. MVP is partly about the narrative you tell, and Allen leading the Bills out of the gauntlet of the AFC East would be a pretty great story for voters to run with.

The Field

Bryan: I’m tempted by Aaron Rodgers (+1500). Riding into town and leading the Jets to the playoffs for the first time in over a decade would be a compelling story. Instead, though, I think I like wherever your NFC East winner ends up being. Jalen Hurts (+900) only has the one-year track record of MVP-caliber play, but he was a top-10 passer who was so good at short-yardage rushing that the league considered banning the push sneak. Our projections have his passing DVOA going up, and if the Philly defense takes a step back due to extensive turnover, the Eagles will rely on him even more than last year.

And then there’s Dak Prescott (+1800). I’m not sure anyone realizes just how good Prescott is, and that includes Jerry Jones. A perennial feature in the top 10 of passing DVOA, Prescott at his best can lead one of the top offenses in football. And with Brandin Cooks added to his targets this year and Zack Martin back in the fold, Prescott should have the weapons and blocking to have a great season. If the Cowboys win the NFC East, look out.

Cale: Rodgers did pique my interest at +1500. New team, new toys, and an offensive coordinator who’s practically letting Rodgers write the play-calling sheet. Give me all the Lamar Jackson (+1400) shares, though. By far the best odds for value on this list. The Baltimore Ravens have completely rejuvenated themselves offensively. Todd Monken has already talked about “empowering” Jackson as he sends the new OC plays from YouTube. Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham are both recovered from their injuries. Zay Flowers is tearing up the rookie show as well as the preseason. Jackson has never had a receiver finish better than 35th in receiving DVOA. There’s a chance he gets at least two in the top 30 this year. Jackson has been great, but this could be an incredible leap.

Cale: If we’re really looking to get into the slop, I’m keeping my eye on Derek Carr (+4000). Is it sexy? God, no. But it is possible. Before last year’s downturn of a season, Carr had three straight seasons of top-10 DYAR performances and was an 11th place finish away from doing the same in DVOA. He’s a very solid quarterback who won’t outright bury a team with bone-headed moves. Working with a solid group of pass-catchers and the league’s easiest projected schedule by DVOA, he could make enough noise to mount an MVP campaign.

Bryan: Oh, if you want to go crazy crazy, Jimmy Garoppolo (+10000). Hey, he led the league in DVOA last season! Doing it outside the comforting embrace of the Shanahan system is … not likely. But that return! The value!

Coach of the Year

Top Five

Dan Campbell: +850
Sean Payton: +900
Matt Eberflus: +1100
Arthur Smith: +1400
Matt LaFleur: +1600

The Favorites

Cale: If we’re being totally honest, I don’t love the top end of this list. I’m as much as a Dan Campbell guy as anyone, but the Lions Bandwagon has gained a little too much steam for my liking. And I’m staying as far away as I can from the Broncos – after last year, I’ll let them win me over. I’m going all the way down to Matt LaFleur (+1600) as my favorite. I think we are all going to be pleasantly surprised by Jordan Love and the post-Rodgers Packers. LaFleur’s PA-heavy, motion centric offense should help Love acclimate to full-time starter play, and turning Love into a starting caliber quarterback should be a Coach of the Year case in itself. Couple that with a bounce-back year for the defense, and there’s a great bet here.

Bryan: The Falcons improved significantly on the field last season, but didn’t see a jump in their win-loss record as a result. With the second-softest schedule in the league, and without an established star or top prospect under center, a playoff run from Arthur Smith (+1400) would turn a lot of heads. Yes, the Falcons are probably just going to be average, but an average team is going to win the NFC South. And if they do, Smith and his running scheme will get a lot of credit for making it happen.

The Field

Bryan: LaFleur is a great choice, and I’m going to steal it for all the reasons you said. But I’ll also stick in Mike Tomlin (+2200) in the conversation. He’s never had a losing season, and the Steelers throttled their opposition this preseason. That means less than nothing, of course, but it looks like Kenny Pickett and some of the other young players have taken a step forward, and the return of T.J. Watt will be huge. If Tomlin could come out on top of a fierce AFC North? I could see it.

Cale: A small part of me wants to go Doug Pederson, but his third-place finish last year makes me think the Jaguars may have already gotten their due. I really like Mike McDaniel (+1800) out of this middle pack as well, and I’ll go with him. This was a team with a weird 2022 season. The highs were incredible, but losing Tua Tagovailoa to concussions took all the wind out of their sails. An encore performance from that lightning-fast offense, coupled with an improved Fangio-led defense, would warrant some Coach of the Year consideration.

Bryan: … Mike McCarthy (+4000). Maybe Kellen Moore was the problem!

First Coach to Permanently Leave Position

Top Five

Ron Rivera: +500
Josh McDaniels: +600
Mike McCarthy: +600
Todd Bowles: +600
Dennis Allen: +850

The Favorites

Cale: … are you sure THIS isn’t the place you wanted Mike McCarthy?

Bryan: It isn’t; I think the Cowboys are making the playoffs. If they lose early again I could see Dallas moving on, but I highly doubt McCarthy will be first out the door. Instead, I’ll stay in the division and take Ron Rivera (+500). I do not believe in Sam Howell at all, and the ownership change means there’s no preexisting equity with Rivera and management; he’s the old guy’s guy! I could easily see Washington falling to 5-10 on Christmas Eve, and Josh Harris pulling the plug as a way to generate enthusiasm. Happy holidays.

Cale: I feel oddly confident about Washington, and even if Rivera got a Christmastime dismissal, that feels late for first off the board. Of the top guys, I’d go with Todd Bowles (+600). The Buccaneers are a year away from a full-on rebuild. They still have too many good players on their books to completely let go. But if the seasons starts out poor, I could see them having a deadline fire sale to kickstart the rebuild. A full-scale teardown would likely means Tampa Bay lets Bruce Arians’ hand-picked replacement walk in an effort to get a head start on the coaching search.

The Field

Bryan: It feels like the Titans are on the precipice of deciding they need to blow everything up and start over; a rebuild deferred. If the bottom falls out this year, maybe they make the move early, cutting Mike Vrabel (+1400) and letting Ron Carthon find someone to guide the team into the post-Ryan Tannehill era. And while I suspect Sean McVay (+1600) would have quit before this year if he wasn’t interested in working with a rebuilding team, the rumors do continue to circle that he’s considered retirement in the past. Is it crazy to suggest that, if the Rams are awful, he voluntarily ducks out early to give Mike LaFleur a few weeks of an audition? Probably. But not impossible.

Cale: How bad do things have to get in Los Angeles for Brandon Staley (+1600) to get fired in-season? Their clock is reset with Justin Herbert’s new contract locked in, but they are still obviously looking to compete. The damage done by Joe Lombardi spamming Stick could be irreparable, and the defensive performances have not been up-to-par, especially given the star power on that side of the ball.

Bryan: If you’re looking for a real longshot: what if the Cardinals think they’re going to be regular-bad, but they are actually historically bad? That might be a calamity, Jonathan Gannon (+4000). A well-run team would understand they’re spending the year dead for tank reasons. The Cardinals may or may not be that team.

Cale: Gannon would be the seventh coach in the Super Bowl era to get fired before the end of his first season. He would also be the third coach in three years to suffer that fate. Simultaneously historically rare and recently trendy!

Offensive Player of the Year

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: The voters seem to have finally decided this is a “best non-quarterback” award, though it is not yet clear if they are aware offensive linemen exist. Justin Jefferson remains my pick for the best receiver in football, but I think Minnesota will struggle this year and Jefferson’s candidacy will get a little bit lost in the wash. So I’ll go with one of the other top choices for best receiver in the league with Ja’Marr Chase (+1100), especially with reports that Joe Burrow will be ready from the off.

Cale: Bit of a dangerous game, making Chase the odds favorite. Competing with a Burrow MVP candidacy, alongside an elite trio of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, could be tough to really stake a standalone case. Christian McCaffrey (+1500), on the other hand, can both be the centerpiece of the 49ers’ run game AND one of their top receiving threats. Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold aren’t taking away from McCaffrey’s shine, nor are they doing enough to make their pass-catchers top-of-the-league offensive talents.

The Field

Bryan: The 49ers offensive DVOA jumped from -5.8% to 24.0% after they added McCaffrey. That was true whether it was Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy running the show. His positional versatility makes him one of the very few running backs who can rise above the “oh, we’ll just find a replacement” muck. Seconded, whole-heartedly.

But if we’re talking about running backs and value, I like Austin Ekeler (+5000). Kellen Moore loves throwing to his running backs, and Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. Breaking away from the Joe Lombardi give-up screen game (32 screen targets last season! 32!) and working him in as part of a functioning offense has real potential.

Cale: The odds aren’t as long as that, but Tyreek Hill (+2000) is my favorite pick outside of the top five. He is the absolute lifeblood of the Miami McDaniel offense, commanding a target share well over 30%. That set new career highs of 170 targets, 119 receptions, and 1,710 yards. According to ESPN, Hill led the NFL in yards per route run (3.33) in 2022, more than any receiver in the last three years. That superhero performance is going to have to be replicated – if not outright surpassed – if Miami hopes to stay competitive.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Five

Micah Parsons: +500
Myles Garrett: +800
T.J. Watt: +850
Nick Bosa: +1200
Sauce Gardner: +1500

The Favorites

Cale: I’ve tried to stay away from outright favorites thus far, but it’s hard to deny that this feels like Micah Parsons’ year (+500). In just his second year in the league, Parsons helped lead the Cowboys to second in the league in pressure rate. He has already become one of the league’s most dominant edge rushers. This award has become a bit dominated by pass rushers. Parsons is projecting to always hang around the top of the league’s sack and pressure rankings. Feels safe to me.

Bryan: For two or three years straight, I started this section with “This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. Well, Aaron Donald is usually just about as good as Aaron Donald.” It feels weird to go against that, but we’re in a new era of the Rams being terrible, so there you have it. I’ll take T.J. Watt (+850) coming back from injury; he tied the NFL record in sacks the last time he was healthy, so, you know, that’s pretty good.

The Field

Cale: In the non-edge-rusher list, I’m drawn to the New York Jets to get some shine. Most breakout defenses are usually due for regression the following year, but the Jets’ low turnover rate as a top-five defense means they are primed to repeat. Any shine will likely come from reigning DROY Sauce Gardner (+1500). He became the eighth rookie defensive back since 1999 to put up 20 passes defensed, and his 5.8 yards per pass allowed were seventh among all corners. A similar season would certainly put Gardner in the running.

My darkhorse pick also comes from the Jets: defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (+3000). His 12.0 sacks in 2022 were second among all defensive tackles, and he finished second on the Jets in pressures. All the Jets’ young talent on the edge, coupled with their elite secondary, could open up the opportunity for Williams to put up massive numbers. A DPOY award would go nicely alongside his new contract extension

Bryan: The list of players who have gone back-to-back as DPOY is small and exclusive – Donald, J.J. Watt and Lawrence Taylor. Could Nick Bosa (+1200) pull that off? His odds have taken a dip at the moment in part because he has not yet signed an extension, but most reports have that happening before Week 1. If so, you’re getting a discount on last year’s DPOY for no reason. That screams value to me.

Elsewhere, maybe Haason Reddick (+2500), finally staying on the same team in back-to-back seasons after years wandering the free agency wilderness; will build on a career-high 16 sacks as the Eagles defy defensive regression. And if I have to pick a non-edge rusher, I quite like Derwin James (+7500). While James has never received so much as a DPOY vote, he’s such a versatile chess piece in Los Angeles. If the Chargers defense does very well, he’ll get a lot of attention as being one of the reasons why, enabling Brandon Staley’s creativity.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Five

Bijan Robinson: +275
Bryce Young: +450
Anthony Richardson: +650
Jaxon Smith-Nijgba: +650
C.J. Stroud: +700

The Favorites

Cale: Choo-choo! All aboard the Anthony Richardson (+650) Train! No wide receivers allowed! The 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards taught me that if a quarterback is even playing remotely well enough to contend, they’ll win over any skill position player. The situation around him looks pretty dire. Jonathan Taylor is all but gone. Quenton Nelson has turned into a pumpkin. Indianapolis only kept three of their wide receivers on the roster. More load for Richardson to carry. Richardson boasts one of the most athletic combine performances of all time by Relative Athletic Score and is coached by the coordinator who had experience coaching Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. That’s sky-high potential, even in a rough situation. I like my money with him.

Bryan: Nope, I’m not a Richardson believer; I don’t think he’ll be accurate enough to be anything other than a highlight and hope machine in 2023. He’ll be fun to watch, but not good enough to win awards. I’m going with the chalk pick of Bijan Robinson (+275). Maybe he was picked too early, but he’s really good, and the Falcons are going to lean on him hard. I could easily see him finishing in the top five in the league in rushing yards at 1,200 or so with double-digit touchdowns, and running away with the award. What, are the Falcons going to pass the ball? I think not.

The Field

Cale: For the same reason I love Lamar Jackson as my MVP, I love Zay Flowers (+1600) just as much as an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Flowers was a fantastic slot receiver who tore up Shrine Bowl practices enough to propel himself into the first round. He then proceeded to cook in preseason. Flowers can handle a big workload running crossers in the slot and could be the rookie receiver Jackson has been looking for. On that same front, Dalton Kincaid (+2200) could thrive in Buffalo. Kincaid was the only tight end in the country to be targeted 20+ yards downfield more than 10 times. Josh Allen was one of the most high-volume deep passers in the league last year, and verticality is the name of the game in Ken Dorsey’s offense.

Bryan: Opportunity matters here as much as anything, and Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000) looks like he’ll get a lot of play in Detroit, shifting into the slot in sub packages. If he can have an Ekeler/CMC-type usage pattern, he could produce major numbers on a potential division-winning Lions team. And, as a longtime 49ers fan, I’m terrified of seeing Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+2000) racing through wide open zones twice a year for the next half decade.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Five

The Favorites

Bryan: Co-favorites make it tough! I think Jalen Carter (+500) finds himself in the better situation in Philadelphia, and there’s enough talent around him to help make his job that much easier than Will Anderson will have it. Not that Carter needs a ton of help, mind you; he’s already looking like a beast. He’s going to get plenty of opportunities to pin his ears back and rush the passer while replacing Javon Hargrave; he has a chance to be the first Eagle rookie with double-digit sacks since Reggie White.

Cale: See, the landing spot for Carter makes it hard for me to pick him. I think he’s going to put up numbers, but the Eagles had four players with double-digit sacks last year. Does being a product of that system shave any points off? The Defensive Rookies of the Year, especially among pass rushers, don’t have a lot of help alongside them. I’ll go with the other co-favorite, Will Anderson Jr. (+500). A barren roster means Anderson gets all the shine. DeMeco Ryans is going to have so much fun with his new toy.

The Field

Bryan: Brian Branch (+3500) is my favorite pick once you get past the big names; he’ll spend time at both nickel corner and safety for Detroit, and he shouldn’t have much of a learning curve at all getting ready to cover NFL receivers. Starting and producing from Week 1 should give him a boost over players who have to work their way into the system.

Cale: Christian Gonzalez (+1000) feels like he was built in a lab to be a Belichick cornerback. Long, rangy, hyper-athletic, Gonzalez is still a bit raw in his pass coverage skills. He is fast and physical enough to keep up with any defender, and Belichick will coach him up as the year goes on. Expect him to remain in the hunt if the Patriots defense is as good as last year.

Comeback Player of the Year

Top Five

Damar Hamlin: -275
Tua Tagovailoa: +2000
John Metchie III: +2000
Lamar Jackson: +2000
Breece Hall: +2000

The Winner

Bryan: Damar Hamlin made the Bills’ 53-man roster. Damar Hamlin will play in Week 1. Therefore, Damar Hamlin will win Comeback Player of the Year. Welcome back, Calvin Ridley, Lamar Jackson, et. al. Hamlin wrapped this up before a snap was played this season.

Super Bowl Winner

Top Five:

Kansas City Chiefs: +600
Philadelphia Eagles: +800
Buffalo Bills: +900
San Francisco 49ers: +900
Cincinnati Bengals: +1000

The Favorites:

Cale: The misery has to stop at some point, right? I can’t say for sure the back-to-back divisional round losses hurt worse than the Jim Kelly-era Super Bowl shortcomings, but at some point the luck has to change for the Buffalo Bills (+900). A top-three quarterback, a top-three receiver, a top-five defense, and a Coach of the Year candidate was good enough to land Buffalo at the top of last year’s overall DVOA rankings, but it wasn’t enough to get them to the big game. Mostly running that roster back with some key depth additions is a great way to put yourself back in the running. If luck breaks a little better this time around, Josh Allen will be hoisting a Lombardi come February.

Bryan: My worry about the Bills is that they’ll get beaten up in a tough AFC East, fall to the three or four seed, and then have to go on the road to play the likes of the Chiefs or Bengals. Not that that helped too much a year ago, losing in Buffalo to Cincinnati, a loss which has Buffalo fans concerned the window on this run is closing. They’re right; it is. But it’s not closed yet! And with questions about defenses in Kansas City and Cincinnati, Buffalo looks like the most complete team in the better conference.

The Field:

Bryan: On this particular list, the San Francisco 49ers (+900) wouldn’t count as a value pick over Buffalo; they’re at the same odds. But a little shopping around can get them down in the quad digits, thanks in part to a tumultuous past few weeks which saw them dither on Nick Bosa‘s contract and trade away Trey Lance. But they’re still one of the cream of the weak NFC, and with longer odds than the Eagles, they’re a solid value to come out on top when all is said and done. The same can be said about the Dallas Cowboys (+1500), the third in the FTN Football Almanac’s trifecta of NFC contenders. But if you want a real long shot, check out the Atlanta Falcons (+8000). In the NFC, all you need to do to get to the playoffs is finish over .500. Atlanta can do that, against a weak schedule with an intriguing set of skill position players. Then, you just have to get hot for one month. One month to glory. Why not?

Cale: When you factor in Atlanta’s 31st-ranked schedule, they might find themselves with a pretty high seed if a few things bounce their way. It’s the same reason I don’t hate the New Orleans Saints (+3500) as a flier pick, working with the league’s easiest schedule in a lax conference. I also can’t get enough Baltimore Ravens (+1800) love into this column. It would probably take the unenviable task of dethroning Cincinnati, but I really think this offense is what finally propels the Ravens into that uppermost tier of AFC talent. Things could click the same way for the Miami Dolphins defense, but the roster is just too thin for me to fully endorse a Super Bowl run.

Coming later this week: A look at the odds for 2023′ stats leaders by category.