MSG Week 8 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 8.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to. 

IND -2.5. O/U: 50
IND: 26.5 | DET: 24

Pace and playcalling 

Detroit plays at a solid neutral pace (eighth), while Indianapolis is 15th. Their run/pass ratio is nearly identical in that situation and also right in the middle at league average (56% pass). Detroit will turn it up to 67% pass when down by 6 or more while playing at the fifth-fastest pace, making that our ideal situation for this game to be a profitable DFS stack. Indy has averaged 15.4 PPG in the first half (10th).

Indy has been a solid defensive team this season (fourth in DVOA), allowing the fewest yards per game (tied with TB for fewest yards per play allowed, 4.8). 

The Lions started out as one of the worst defensive teams but have crept up the DVOA ranks to 18th. They are not good; they just aren’t the absolute dumpster fire they were to start the season (27.5 PPG allowed, 20th), but have been a bit better over their last three games (24.3 PPG). 

Detroit is second to only Seattle in first-quarter scoring, while Indianapolis is top-eight in first-half scoring. If both teams can come out and put up some early points, this game could surprise, but bettors are not counting on it. This game opened at 51 and has been bet down to 50 with both the public and percent of money backing the under. 

Colts

Philip Rivers has shown just how important gamescript is for fantasy. The Colts would prefer he play the game manager role, but when you fall behind 21-0 early, you can’t stick to the run-first game plan. Rivers tossed a season-high 3 TDs and 371 passing yards in their last game, finishing Week 6 as QB6 with 25.74 Fanduel points (16.82 had been his high). With teams attacking Detroit on the ground this season, (eighth in rush rate against), only Matt Ryan has eclipsed 300 yards against them, and they have allowed just 6 passing TDs against 4 INTs in their last three games. I never play Rivers — if anything I am looking to play the DST against him in hopes of getting one of his TD passes he throws to the other team — Rivers is sixth all-time with 25 pick-sixes. 

Jonathan Taylor should be a popular play again this week against the Lions’ poor rush D (they’re still 30th in adjusted line yards, despite two solid games against Atlanta and Jacksonville). Taylor has not had the usage we want in an RB1 (yet), ranking 26th in opportunity and 22nd in weighted opportunity. 

The difference in Indy’s rush play volume stands out, which again illustrates the importance of nailing the gamescript. They ran it 64 times in two easy wins vs. the Jets and Bears, then had only 29 rush attempts in a loss and comeback win against the Bengals. The targets have been dependent on script as well — Taylor is averaging 4.3 targets per game in three negative gamescripts and 1.33 when Indy controls the game. 

Over his past two games, he has handled 24 of 29 team rush attempts (84%), after just 30 of 64 in their two games prior (47%). He has also seen a higher target share, with the main factor being Jordan Wilkins going from a snap share that had been over 25% to only a 5% share in his last two. Wilkins’ snap share correlates with script, seeing 7 snaps in negative gamescripts and 46 when the Colts control the game. 

Let’s be honest: Taylor has not been good from an underlying statistical point of view, ranking 54th in yards created per touch, with the No. 42 juke rate and 1.5 yards after contact (37th). Still, there are some trends that lead me to believe a heavier post bye-week workload is in-coming however, regardless of how the game plays out. 

In the Indianapolis Star, Colts RB coach Tom Rathman said, “He’s done everything that he needs to do… It’s just about getting experience…The more he gets, the better he’s going to be.” Reading more of this week’s coach speak — which can be helpful or a bunch of BS — head coach Frank Reich said, also in the Star, “This is a guy coming out of Wisconsin that people think that he doesn’t catch the football, but I think we’ve used him in the passing game. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands, so get him in space, let him use his size and speed.” He added, “We are committed to the run. Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would’ve liked to. That’s who we want to be. We want to run the football…I think (Taylor’s) getting better every week, running with more confidence,” Reich said. “I feel really good about where he’s at and the trajectory he’s on.”

Trey Burton has emerged to lead all Colts tight ends (14th in combined TE target share) in both routes and targets (5.33 targets, last three games). Two of those games were with Mo Alie-Cox OUT (he had a limited practice Thursday). Jack Doyle has also been in and out of the lineup, so I will wait for the final injury report to decide what to do here, but I do have my eye on Burton as the cheap DK TE at $3.5k. The Lions have been solid against the position but have not been tested, facing Atlanta, Green Bay, Minnesota and Arizona. All four are in the bottom 11, with only the Bears ranking higher among Lions opponents. 

Picture source: IndyStar 

I don’t have a ton of interest in the WRs, T.Y. Hilton (1-11-0, 5 targets) is a player I haven’t used yet this season, Marcus Johnson (5-108-0, 8 targets, was tackled just shy of the goal line) and Zach Pascal (4-54-1) out-targeted Hilton prior to the break. I suppose there is a price that could make me do it, but $4.9k/$5.5k ain’t it. Johnson is interesting if you are putting together groups for 150-max. The undrafted 26-year-old has some juice, at 6-foot-1 with 83rd or higher percentile in height-adjusted speed and burst. He has a great story, battling back from cancer to go off at the combine (4.38-second 40-yard dash) to get his break in the league. He is playing opposite Hilton in three-WR sets (the Colts line up three-wide at a 71% rate), so should be on the field for 65% of snaps again with Michael Pittman Designated to return from IR but not set to return. 

Injuries 

(per Rotoworld) 

• The Colts designated Michael Pittman for return from the injured reserve list on Wednesday. He still needs to be activated in order to play Sunday.
• All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard was able to elevate from being limited in practice on Wednesday to a full participant on Thursday. The Colts have averaged 14.5 PPG with the All-Pro (four games), and 29.5 in two games without. 
• Colts C Ryan Kelly (knee) was downgraded from “limited” to “DNP” on Thursday. Not what you want to see with the Colts coming off their bye week. It remains possible this is just rep management for the league’s highest-paid center. Monitor his status.

Lions

Matthew Stafford (QB17) came up with 340 yards in the dream matchup with ATL, completing 69% of his passes for 340 yards and a TD. Even after being touched up without Leonard a bit, the Colts are still first in PPG allowed to the position, so Stafford is not a guy I am considering. 

D’Andre Swift (13 touches) and Adrian Peterson (12 touches) continue in a committee as predicted, even after the rookie’s Week 6 breakout. This is also a negative matchup for the RBs — the Colts are sixth in both yards and points per play allowed (3.96 adjusted, 3.48 RB yards per carry). If the Lions fall behind, Swift could land in a good spot; he has seen 7 of the last 8 RB targets. The Colts have also covered RBs in the pass well. 

Kenny Golladay will line up against Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin and is the Lions player to use in this spot. Rhodes has been much better this season — seventh in catch rate and eighth in passer rating allowed in coverage — but Golladay is a beast. He ranks seventh in yards per target, fourth in yards per routes run and 15th in fantasy points per target (2.35). There are some trade rumors floating in Detroit after Golladay’s Instagram post the week prior after the win in Jacksonville. It doesn’t make any sense, with the premium put on a true WR1 combined with the Lions making a trade to bolster their defense last week. Narrative aside, Golladay is just too big and talented for most CBs. It’s only a matter of him getting the volume we want in a No. 1. His target total (7, 8, 6, 7 so far, 22.7% target share) is WR2 usage and forces him to be close to perfect in terms of efficiency to hit big. That throws him into the GPP-only bin, but a top play over there at less than 10% ownership and an upside of 100 yards and 2 TDs. 

Marvin Jones also took advantage of the schedule last week, posting 5-80-0 on 6 targets against the Falcons. Both he and T.J. Hockenson are also falling victim to Stafford’s low volume (34 pass attempts per game). Unless you think this game is a borderline shootout like last week, it’s going to be tough to play these secondary options. Hockenson is the one maybe, with three straight games with a TD; he is now tied with Mark Andrews with seven end-zone targets. The problem is, the Colts have talented and intelligent LBs that have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position by more than 2per game. 

Core plays: Jonathan Taylor, Trey Burton (GPP if Alie-Cox is playing) 

GPP only: Kenny Golladay (one of my favorite one-offs), Detroit DST (Punt play), Matthew Stafford-Golladay-D’Andre Swift stack (can use T.J. Hockenson in this stack also), Marcus Johnson (min. priced punt) 

LV +2.5. O/U: 53.5
LV: 26.5 | CLE: 27.5

Weather

This game is nasty — 27 MPH winds in the forecast with 35 MPH gust, in addition to a strong possibility of rain. If the offenses become one-dimensional, using the RBs is less appealing, as the defenses can load up at the line of scrimmage. It is also harder to sustain drives without the threat of the downfield pass. Since 2003, teams are 456-351-8 (57%) to the UNDER once a game reaches at least 10-MPH winds. 

Strategy note:

One large-field GPP strategy if you MME is just to pretend there is no weather. Build lineups like you would, YOLO. Some of these stadiums are nowhere near the city center. Accuweather will allow you to search the stadium itself, rather than the general metro area. 

As a reminder, we want to stack our QBs with his WRs/TEs/RBs in tournaments. Yes, an optimal lineup can hit, but it is the outlier. More on stacks: Mix in low-owned one-offs in chalk stacks (like SF/SEA) and secure your low-owned stacks with solid cash-friendly plays as your one-off (Kareem Hunt). Most GPP winners are a combo of chalk, with 2-4 lower-owned plays, not a nine-player parlay of sub-10% plays. 

Pace and playcalling

The weather here is a shame, with both defenses in the bottom-seven in pass DVOA, allowing the fourth- (Cleveland) and second-most (Las Vegas), at a combined 60 points per game allowed. Las Vegas has been a bastion of fantasy goodness, going 5-0-1 to the OVER, while Cleveland sits at 5-2. The Raiders are 29th in yards and 32nd in points per drive. The big difference in the two defenses is Cleveland’s ability to rush the passer, ranking sixth compared to Vegas at 26th. 

Looking at pace data from ideal conditions like these teams have had so far this year is not going to be very useful, but both are in the bottom-10 in neutral situations. This game opened at one of the highest totals on the slate but has moved to 50 at the time of writing this.

Cleveland already ranks second in rush rate at 49.3% overall and 48% in neutral situations. So they don’t need to change the game plan much, if at all. Las Vegas also runs on 48% of neutral plays (T-fourth), then cranks it up to 65% once trailing by at least 7. Cleveland sticks to their way, running at the fourth-highest rate once trailing by 7 or more. They each take about 3.5 deep shots a game (20-plus yards), so those may go away, but play-action and short passes to the TEs and RBs should be OK. 

Raiders

Derek Carr has posted back-to-back top-12 finishes against two top passing defenses (8.5 adjusted YPA, fifth). One of those was a blowout (Tampa Bay), the other a shootout with the champs. The script always helps a QB, but especially one in a run-first offense like the Raiders’. He now has five straight games with multiple TD passes, two with 3 TDs. If not for the weather, he would be in play at $5.5k, but it is a tough sell if there is rain coming in sideways at 30 MPH. Cleveland also has an edge here with a top-six pass rush in this weather, Carr drops from 79% to 42.5% when under duress, which could lead to sacks and turnovers. 

Josh Jacobs (knee) was limited at Thursday’s practice. He should play, but a bum knee on a wet field isn’t optimal. The Las Vegas run blocking has also been less than optimal, averaging 3.97 adjusted and 3.99 RB yards per carry (27th). That is a steep decline from 2019, where they ranked sixth at 4.63 adjusted line yards. Cleveland is middle of the pack in adjusted line yards, but have only allowed 3.71 RB YPC, allowing just one back to go over 54 yards (James Conner, who managed 101 yards on 20 carries). 

I keep hearing Jacobs is less script-dependent than last year, but when you pull out his splits in wins and losses, I see the same RB, just without the good blocking. In the Raiders’ three losses, he is averaging 13.6 carries, compared to 25 in their three wins. The targets are up 1.8 per game this season, but that still only gets him to 4.0. 

With Jacobs currently projected as the fourth-highest-owned RB per our DFS Ownership Projections, he is not going to end up on my main lineup. Both Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard have played more than 20% of snaps over their last two, combining for exactly 12 touches between the two in each game. FB Alec Ingold is even in the mix, averaging 2 targets per game this season. That might not seem like much, but when you have 3 backs averaging 5.6 targets a game, it limits the RB1’s upside. 

Darren Waller should get force fed in this spot, running and catching almost all his routes close to the line of scrimmage (5.8 average yards per target, 35th). He is first in TE targets per game (9.3), seeing 29.8% of Carr’s passes come his way. He has also seen a 35.7% red-zone target share, with five coming at the goal line. Expect Waller to be very popular on this slate, with his skill set holding up well in the elements. He is currently projected to be 20% on DK, the most popular TE on that site since he comes at a $1k and $1.4k discount to Travis Kelce and George Kittle, respectively. On FD, the three stud TEs are going to garner at least a combined 50% of the overall TE ownership. Waller will likely land in my core plays Sunday morning and on at least one of my three-max teams. His popularity makes sense given the plus matchup with the Browns and him being so successful on short routes. 

Nelson Agholor is a thing, matching Waller with 9 targets against the Bucs and posting 5-107-1 in a tough matchup. He is averaging an eye-popping 3.4 FP per target this season (second among all WRs) while running 34.25 routes per game in his last four. He is averaging 14.6 yards per target (third), so will need to shorten things up a bit, which he is perfectly capable of. 

As the deep home-run hitter, Henry Ruggs takes the biggest weather hit. Ruggs has topped out at 3 catches this season, averaging a hilarious 26.5 yards per catch thus far on 3.5 targets per game. 

Browns

Baker Mayfield is not someone we have rostered yet this season, which worked well until he exploded last week with a season-high 5 TD passes and 294 passing yards. Prior to that, he averaged 182.5 passing yards a game with 10 TD passes (six games). On a run-first team, sideways rain, without his best WR is not the week to chase points, even in a plus matchup with Las Vegas (fourth-most fantasy points to QBs, allowed 333 yards per game and 2.5 TDs in their last three). 

Kareem Hunt continues his maintenance program during the week on his injured rib but will be a go once again after playing a season-high 90% snap share last week (70% was previous high). Since Nick Chubb was injured (Week 5), Hunt is averaging 17 carries and 3.5 targets per game, which is OK, just nothing to get excited about considering his price and high ownership through those three games. I have been lukewarm on Hunt over this run and have done fine fading him as the public flocked, but this is my week to jump on the wagon. Raiders allow a ton of production to backs, 29th in rushing points and 28th in receiving points on DK. He is projected to be the most popular RB on the slate, as good chalk. 

With Odell Beckham OUT, Jarvis Landry is in line for a target share bump and is also in that weird spot where a low average depth of target is actually a benefit. Landry is 62nd in average target distance, which should benefit him in this weather. The issue is only two red-zone targets on the entire season — even last week, with Beckham out early and Mayfield going off, Landry only got 1 red-zone target compared to 9 for the TEs and Hunt. Landry has also been playing with a broken rib and is overpriced for me at $5.6k. 

The other “Hollywood,” Rashard Higgins, has emerged lately, and also steps into an expanded role with Beckham out. He caught all six of his targets last week, racking up 110 yards, after getting into the end zone in his previous two games. Higgins has one of the worst athletic profiles you will see in an NFL WR, but he produces when targeted. In college, he had a 29% target share and 30 TD catches in 38 games.
Donavan People-Jones was a guy I had my eye on after going through all the rookie profiles this summer (86th percentile height adjusted speed, 99th percentile burst score, per PlayerProfiler). He caught all three of his targets on a season-high 68% of snaps after Beckham went out and has a plus matchup against 5-9 Nevin Lawson (133.0 passer rating allowed in coverage). 

Austin Hooper was not present at Thursday’s practice, putting Harrison Bryant (17 routes) and David Njoku (14 routes) back in our lives for another week. Bryant out-targeted Njoku 5-3 and hauled in four of those for 56 yards and 2 TDs. Njoku also got into the box, posting 2-20-1 to save the chalk donkeys who played him (me). Again, Cleveland uses multiple-TE sets at a 57% rate, and targets the position at over 31%, so they will be in the mix once again. They only ran 14 and 12 routes, respectively, so without a score both of these guys could disappoint, but then that’s the case with most TEs not named Kelce, Kittle or Waller. 

Injuries 

• Myles Garrett did not practice Thursday, but is supposed to play. 

Core plays: Darren Waller, Kareem Hunt 

GPP only: Derek Carr/Darren Waller/Nelson Agholor stack, Josh Jacobs, Harrison Bryant, Rashard Higgins, Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones 

LAR -4. O/U: 45.5
LAR: NA | MIA: NA

Weather 

Typical hot/humid Florida weather with some rain in the forecast the day before and after the game. Looks clear for game time. 

Pace and playcalling

In terms of points allowed per drive, this matchup ranks higher (or lower, depending on your perspective). They have allowed the second- (LAR) and third-fewest points per game this season. 

The Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game this season after a three-game run of 259 total yards allowed (first) and just 14.7 PPG. Miami had the 13th-best passing offense, but just removed the reason for it (Ryan Fitzpatrick), making this a potentially brutal first start for rookie Tua Tagovailoa. 

Miami is an extreme run-funnel per DVOA, ranking sixth against the pass and 32nd against the rush. That plays right into this version of the Rams, who rush at the fourth-highest rate overall. 

Miami operated at the fourth-slowest pace with Fitzpatrick, so expect the Fins to be swimming slowly between plays with a rookie under center. They have played at the 12th-slowest pace when trailing by 7-plus, so again, not a plus team for pace of play (25th in plays per game). 

The Rams play at logical splits, 24.3 per play when trailing by a TD (9th), and 29 seconds with a lead, but only pass on 36% of plays in that situation (T-4th lowest). 

Rams

Jared Goff won’t have to deal with any elements, with the forecast in Miami calling for 10 MPH winds. He has been solid, not spectacular this season, which is going to be the case when you operate an offense like this — like Baker Mayfield but with extra 3 pass attempts per game (Goff is averaging 31 pass attempts). Chastised for not playing well on the road, Goff has flipped the narrative, averaging 13.35 fantasy points per game at home and 24.79 on the road this season after finishing 2019 with a +2.18 FPPG edge on the road. That means over his last 25 games, he is more than 5.0 fantasy points per game better on the road (multiple passing touchdowns in five of his past six games, averaging 3 TDs per game on the road). Miami has feasted on bad QB play. They played C.J. Beathard plus a rushed-back-from-injury Jimmy Garoppolo, plus Joe Flacco, Cam Newton and Gardner Minshew, and holding those four teams to an average of 196.5 passing yards. Against Russell Wilson and Josh Allen, things did not go as well, with the Dolphins allowing 388.5 yards and 3 TDs per game to the two MVP candidates. Their CBs are solid, but the way the Rams move people around the formation, use motion, CBs don’t have the same type of influence. Goff is projected for a 3% ownership, making him a solid GPP play if you MME. 

Darrell Henderson is also looking at a sub-5% ownership, putting him on my radar, especially on FanDuel at $6.1k ($5.9k on DK). I know Malcolm Brown is a tilt waiting to happen, seeing 10 carries last week, his high since Week 2. 

Rookie Cam Akers seems to be in Sean McVay’s doghouse, seeing just four snaps in his last two games while apparently healthy. Maybe he will send him a fruit basket at some point and get back on the field, but for now I am assuming this is a two-man committee with Henderson being the lead back. He has 15-14-15 carries in his last three, in addition to a handful of targets (2 per game). He has 16 red-zone touches in his last three games, which puts him in the Derrick Henry usage rate around the goal line (Henry, 17 RZ touches in his last three). Again, the matchup favors the Rams to dominate the line of scrimmage, boasting the No. 1 offensive rush DVOA, No. 1 adjusted line yards average and No. 3 power rank against the Miami rush D, which is 31st in adjusted line and 30th in power rank. Miami has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to RBs on the eighth-fewest RB carries. 

The Miami CBs (Xavien Howard and Byron Jones) are solid, but both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp play inside on 51% and 61% of their snaps, respectively, which will line them up with our boy, Nik Needham (or as I call him, Nik “Need my WR to go”ham), an article favorite to attack. Needham is an UDFA who runs a 4.72-second 40-yard dash — even the speed-challenged Kupp will have an edge. Per our Advanced DvP tool, Miami is allowing 9 targets and over 15 FPPG to the slot. Like Goff, both Kupp and Woods will be an afterthought on this slate. 

Miami has only faced one legit tight end this season — George Kittle, and even that was in the game his QB got benched. That is why I am not going to shy away from Gerald Everett if Tyler Higbee is OUT again. First, I should disclose that I am a full-blown Everett stan, so take of the rest of this writeup with that in mind. GE turned the lights on last week, playing the Higbee role (76% snap share), getting 5 targets compared to 3 targets and 54% for new TE2, Johnny Mundt. I would have liked the targets to be a little more skewed to Everett, but we know this offense is going to target their TEs, especially when their opponent offers some resistance on the outside. 

I am mainly looking to roster Everett on FD, where they have kept him at $4.5k, which could allow us to squeeze in an expensive stack or a Henry-Adams-Hunt combo, etc. 

Dolphins

As a guy who watches very little CFB, I just have to listen to the experts that tell me Tua Tagovailoa is a stud and look at the data that shows him in the 97th percentile of college QBs entering the league in YPA and QBR. This is just a rough draw or a debut, regardless of pedigree. Miami has done a solid job in protection, but the Rams front seven is sixth in sacks, which, combined with a solid secondary (11th), has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the QB position. Another factor working against Tua is pricing — the sites should have left him at minimum price, which always makes things more interesting, but at $6.8k and $5.6k, I can’t do it. 

Jordan Howard has been a healthy scratch in his last two games, leaving Matt Breida behind Myles Gaskin as the two Dolphins backs seeing the field. Gaskin remains mispriced, coming off back-to-back RB1 finishes (18.35 FPPG), seeing 18.5 touches/targets per game, with 27 total RZ touches (fourth-most), out-touching Breida 11-3 over his last three game in that part of the field. 

We are assuming Tua runs the same offense Fitzpatrick did, but do we know Tua will check it down? Young QBs will often lock onto a primary receiver and never make it to the second or third progression, which is the RB on most passing plays. That will be something to watch for in his first start. The same logic applies for DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki. We have zero clue how Tua is going to distribute his passes. The Fins also have Jakeem Grant, Isaiah Ford, an emerging Adam Shaheen, and something named Durham Smythe all playing 30% of plays last game. Jalen Ramsey is staying home this season, so I don’t think he will shadow, but that does not mean I am on any of these Miami WRs. I get taking a flier on Gesicki, as the common notion is “young QBs love TEs,” but I have never seen any actual data on that take so have no idea if it real. 

Core plays: Darrell Henderson, Gerald Everett (better price on FD, if Higbee is OUT), Myles Gaskin (I doubt I run him out on a SE, but he may end up as a flex on FD) 

GPP only: Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp/Gerald Everett stack, Rams DST/Henderson stack (play KC in cash if you want to pay up for a DST)

MIN +6.5. O/U: 54.5
MIN: 23.5 | GB: 31

Weather

25 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 40mph early in the afternoon. The current forecast calls for winds to gradually “wind” down in the second half.

Both teams will air it out when needed, but they also are fine running the ball (Minnesota fifth, Green Bay 14th in rush rate). 

Minnesota is allowing 32 PPG, last. GB is second with 32.8 PPG scored. 

Vikings

GBs vulnerability is the run, which is Minnesota’s strength. The Packers are top-10 in points allowed to WRs and TEs and dead last against opposing backs. What makes that stand out more is the rush attempts, with Green Bay allowing the sixth-fewest rush attempts per game. A big reason is RBs in the passing game, allowing two big games to Alvin Kamara (13-139-2) and the Texans RB Johnsons (9-85-1). Dalvin Cook (97.8 rush yards per game, 7 TDs in five games) appears to be a full go, and is a solid value on DK. I do think he is more script-dependent then most, averaging 3.2 targets a game this year (Derrick Henry is at 2.8) after averaging 4.5 in 2019. In the blowout in Week 1 (Minnesota tried to come back, but it was over early), Cook only played 63.8% of snaps and got out targeted 4-2 by Alexander Mattison. All the TDs have carried his RB3 rank, with 42 of his 107.5 fantasy points coming from touchdowns (15th in opportunity share, 21st in WOPR). 

I will wait to update the Minnesota passing options, but assume Jaire Alexander will shadow Adam Thielen (6 targets, 4 receptions, 66 yards and a TD on 81.5% of snaps when Alexander shadowed Thielen in Week 1). It is important to note that while the game was close, Alexander had his way. He did last week also, shutting out Will Fuller on 70.8% of snaps. Like last week, the other WRs are in the better matchups, but Minnesota only runs 3WR sets on 39% of plays, and those snaps have gone to Chad Beebe (39% snap rate in Week 5). Josh Jackson is the other guy we want to pick on, with Kevin King OUT. He will get rookie sensation Justin Jefferson in primary coverage.

Irv Smith has lined up for 19% of his routes in the slot and had two straight games with 5 targets heading into their bye. He has a low aDOT and runs his routes in the favorable area of the field. If not for Kyle Rudolph, Smith would be an every-week play, but as of now he is only a GPP play if you MME ($4.5k on FD). 

Packers

Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most completions of at least 20 yards and the most of at least 15. With both Holton Hill and Mike Hughes OUT, the Vikings will be rolling out Cameron Dantzler and Harrison Hand as their starting outside CBs, with Jeff Gladney in the slot. This has to be the worst starting CB trio in the league, setting up Davante Adams for another blowup after his 13-196-2 in Houston last week. 

Adams is averaging 14.3 targets in his full three games, leading the league in target share, target rate and yards per route run (a gaudy 3.33). He is getting 2.9 yards of separation per route, which seems like it should be impossible given he is Davante Adams and everyone knows he is getting the ball 10-plus times a game. This matchup is for the ages, with Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard OUT and Minnesota having no CBs. It’s only the weather getting in the way from pushing the lock button. 

Aaron Rodgers (8.9 adjusted net yards per attempt, first) is third with 5.8 deep ball attempts (42.9% completion rate on those targets). If the wind/weather neutralizes that aspect of this matchup, it is not (quite) as appealing. He has feasted on the bottom ranked defenses, including Minnesota for 364-4 in Week 1. 

I will update this game in full once we have a better picture of the weather, as it is a great game for fantasy if things improve a bit (Minnesota is allowing 49 fantasy points per game to wide receivers on DK). 

Aaron Jones is OUT, making it Jamaal Williams Week Part II. Williams played 88.7% of Green Bay’s snaps last week, turning 23 touches into 114 total yards and a TD (3-37-0, on 5 targets). Minnesota is 26th in adjusted line yards, making this another great matchup for Williams. The big difference this week (and it is big) is that both sites jacked up his price dramatically, making it a more complicated decision than last week. JWill should be fine regardless of the forecast. 

Note: Again, I will update this game on Sunday.

Core plays: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams

GPP only: Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Williams, Justin Jefferson (though check back Sunday for an update), Irv Smith, Robert Tonyan (only with Rodgers), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (only with Rodgers), Green Bay DST 

NE +4. O/U: 43
NE: 20 | BUF: 23

Weather 

20 mph winds, rain, and cold. Worth a Sunday update, but this is not a game to stack. 

Pace and playcalling

The Patriots are also struggling on offense, scoring a combined 28 points in their last three games. But Buffalo has also been below average in a number of defensive stats/metrics, making this a strange matchup. 

Buffalo has gone much more pass heavy this season, dropping back on 61% of neutral plays (sixth-fastest neutral pace). They came out of the gate on fire, but three straight games against the Jets-Chiefs-Titans put a stop to that (17 PPG after 30.75 in their first 3).

New England has gone full blown run crazy, running on 50% of plays in neutral and 33% when in the lead. 

Patriots

Whether COVID-19, his shoulder acting up, or that he just sucks at this point, I have no interest Cam Newton or this New England passing offense. Even with safety Micah Hyde OUT, and Buffalo not anywhere near its 2019 level on defense, I just can’t see a New England team winning GPPs in Buffalo without Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry. 

The OL/DL matchup favors New England, as does the loss of the WRs, as NE has to try to keep the game close and run the ball. Damien Harris, aka “Sony Michel, Part II,” will be the early-down back, with James White and Rex Burkhead in the mix if NE has to pass. Burkhead also sees 4.5 carries per game, which is just enough to cut into Harris. He also cuts into White just enough in the passing game to make them all fairly useless for us. 

Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd are the last men standing in the NE WR room. I have heard some people talking up these guys, but I don’t want to be tied to Cam in potential high wind game.

Bills

Patriots CBs Stephon Gilmore (knee) is questionable, but I think he is closer to doubtful/out. CB J.C. Jackson could also miss this week’s game, leaving New England’s secondary paper thin against Josh Allen and company. NE is 25th in defensive DVOA, allowing the 20th-most points and 27th-most yards per drive. Gilmore’s likely absence helps Stefon Diggs, and Allen can always smash with his legs and rushing TDs. Other than that, I haven’t used anyone from this game. I would assume the Hoodie focuses on Diggs, giving some help to Gilmore’s replacement over the top. That, combined with Allen’s recent accuracy woes, and the weather has me looking at other WRs in DIggs’ price range for three-max and single-entry. For multi-entries, the DIggs/Allen combo is the way to go, or Allen naked and hope he runs for a 100 and a couple of scores. 

With Zack Moss back in the mix with Devin Singletary , the Bills RB situation is not something I am targeting, even with NE falling to 27th in adjusted line yards after being stomped by the Niners. The Bills line has been just as bad, ranking 30th in offensive adjusted line yards. 

Cole Beasley has been good for Allen this season, and especially over these last two games (Beasley now has 26% and 28% of the team targets), but it’s a trend that dates back to late 2019. Beasley has averaged 8.33 targets per game in his last 12 regular-season games. He ran a season-high 44 routes last week, getting 12 targets for 112 yards on 11 catches. FanDuel seems to have missed these stats, keeping him at $5.3k despite him averaging more fantasy points per game than Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquise Brown, to name a few notables. 

Like most slot WRs, Beasley will run short routes that are conducive to both the weather and where teams have had success against NE. (sources: Sharp Football and NFL Next Gen Stats). 

Core plays: Cole Beasley (FD), Buffalo Bills DST (New England is tie for first with the most giveaways per game)

GPP only: Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs/Beasley 

NYJ +19.5. O/U: 48
NYJ: 14.5 | KC: 34

Jets

Jamison Crowder (the Jets best offensive player this season) is doubtful, trending toward OUT. That takes away Sam Darnold’s security blanket, leaving rookie Denzel Mims (4-42-0 on 6 targets) as his best option since Breshad Perriman is also OUT. Braxton Berrios should assume Crowder’s role in the slot, with Jeff Smith back in the mix opposite Mims. At $3.2k, in a spot that is about as guaranteed as we can ask for in terms of gamescript, Mims is in my MME player pool. It’s not like we are playing JAG — Mims has an elite profile, standing 6-3 and running in the 93rd percentile at the combine. It won’t be pretty, but he could end up with 10-plus targets, so even a 50% catch rate would get us to value. Garbage time counts, so be patient if you play him. 

That’s it for the Jets … and to be honest, I can’t believe I am recommending even one. 

Chiefs

KC comes in favored by 100 points, the largest point spread in team history. I kid, but 19.5 really is their largest point spread ever. I feel like the KC passing offense is being overlooked here for a few reasons, which gives a nice chance to pounce. For one, KC has been “meh” lately, despite tossing up 43 in Denver last week. Patrick Mahomes (QB6) only played 80% of team snaps, with the game out of hand. KC has done this in four games they won big, seeing Mahomes go under 236 passing yards in all four. We just went through it with Ryan FitzMagic against the Jets. Yes, he got us three quick TD passes, but without the volume he finished with under 200 passing yards. The Jets held Josh Allen and the Bills to a bunch of field goals last week, but they still allowed 300-plus passing yards. 

The arrival of Le’Veon Bell has also shifted the spotlight to him, and off of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. I agree Bell is one of the better narrative-based TD situations I can remember, playing his former team in his debut, at home, as (almost) a 3-TD favorite. I would not be surprised to see Andy Reid call Bell’s number at the goal line to make good first impression with his new RB

The Chiefs have the largest team total on the slate at 34, a number they have hit three times already. I love their DST again, and would not be shocked to see them take their third defensive TD of the season to the house in this spot. 

Core plays: Kansas City DST, Travis Kelce (I have him behind Kittle, just ahead of Waller in terms of his raw projection) 

GPP only: Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Kelce/Denzel Mims, Mahomes/Hill/Demarcus Robinson, Mahomes/Kelce/Mecole Hardman, Kansas City DST/Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City DST/Le’Veon Bell

PIT +3.5. O/U: 46.5
PIT: 20.5 | BAL: 24.5

Overview 

The best “real” football game on the slate, with division rivals squaring off in what is always a physical football game between two top defenses. Unlike Cincinnati/Tennessee below, this is not a full game stack (Pittsburgh is second, Baltimore third in overall DVOA), but it does offer a few solid plays to consider. 

Baltimore is first, Pittsburgh sixth in points per game allowed, and we may also be dealing with weather (15mph winds with stronger gusts, and a chance for rain).

With this game already being on the fringe for me, I require an up-to-the-minute weather report to make a final call. Marquise Brown is one of the guys I was considering, with Pittsburgh being a boom-or-bust secondary, but I don’t know how much I want to play a deep threat WR in high winds and rain. 

**SUNDAY AM WEATHER UPDATE **

I hate talking about the weather, just an FYI. This is not horrible football weather, but in a game like this (two top defenses), it certainly isn’t ideal. 

Pace and Play-Calling 

BAL has run the 6th most plays per game, and limited their opponents to the fewest plays per game. They run at the league’s highest rate (50.1%), and see the lowest rush rate in return (65% pass rate against), as a result of always being ahead. 

BAL

Lamar Jackson has not handled the blitz and pressure in general very well. It can get him running, as a pocket breaking down can encourage him to scramble, but it can also lead to sacks, fumbles, and INTs. PITT blitzes on 44.3% of plays, second to only BAL. Even when he was lighting the football world on fire last year, he had his worst game vs. PITT, tossing 3 INTs on 161 yards passing. He masked it a bit with 70 rush yards, and his legs certainly can do that, but I actually prefer the PITT DST here than Lamar, they should be very low owned for a team-leading the league in sacks and averaging 1.5 takeaways per game. 

Marquise Brown is seeing a 27% target share, which is my happy zone for WRs (25-30%). Of course, the Ravens are DEAD LAST in pass attempts per game (27.5) so his 27% is not equal to Tyler Boyd at 27%. That said, he is a HR hitter, and the Steelers have been allowing big pass plays (21 passes over 20+ yards, and 3+ 40 yards).  He makes more sense on FD at $5.9k and yards/TDs being the primary goal over there. 

Mark Andrews is in the same boat, high usage on a low volume offense. The BIG difference is Andrews gets all all the EZ targets & TDs (7 EZ targets + 5 TDs, 1st). This slate is full of great TE options, especially up top, so Andrews is going to be ULTRA contrarian at 2-3%. Like most things, PITT covers the TE well (7th fewest FP allowed). They did allow 4-57-1 to Noah Fant, which should be your goal if you roster Andrews in GPPs.

PITT

Ben Roethlisberger is being used more as a game manager this season than a gunslinger, ranking 27th in YPA on the 15th most attempts per game. The PITT D is partly to blame, at 6-0, we have yet to see him in hurry-up/catch-up mode. He is QB17 on the back of 13 TD passes, which tells us there is a low-floor if and when the TDs don’t come. Unlike Lamar, Ben can handle the blitz and pressure better than most (7th in pressured completion rate), which sets up well for him against the Ravens blitz-happy scheme. We saw Pat Mahomes drop 300+ and 4-TDs on this Ravens team this season, so there is some precedent, and Ben has all of his talented WRs healthy, so I will have a few PITT stacks in tournaments.  

James Conner has busted out with 100 total yards in four of his past five, averaging 22.5 touches/targets in his last two games and heavy RZ usage (7th, even after the Benny Snell troll last week). It won’t be pretty, but Conner could get you 100+ a score again at minuscule ownership. He is a GPP only play for those that submit more than 3 LUs. 

The PITT WRs all being healthy is not ideal for DFS, BAL has allowed some production in the slot, but I am not one to attack Marlon Humphry. I rank them Chase Claypool, Dionte Johnson, Juju. I also think Eric Ebron will be used today, but he just adds another complication to the WRs, more than a guy I want to play on this TE heavy slate. 

Core plays: N/A

GPP only: Pittsburgh DST, Baltimore DST, Hollywood, Lamar (Naked or with Andrews/Brown if you MME) 

*Ben – Chase – Dionte stack with Hollywood as the run back 

TEN -6. O/U: 54.5
TEN: 30.5 | CIN: 24

Pace and playcalling

This is one of my favorite games on the slate, a full-blown game stack from both sides, incorporating both QBs, RBs and receivers. 

Despite still being run-heavy (sixth-heaviest run rate), Tennessee is playing up in pace (fourth in neutral situations), with their games combining for just under 57 PPG (second-highest neutral no-huddle rate). 

Cincinnati is also a fast team (eighth in neutral pace), passing at the highest neutral rate. At 42 pass attempts per game, only Dallas has thrown more this season. 

Weather is also a concern here, with 15-20 MPH winds, right on the line. I plan on updating this game Sunday morning, as I want to invest pretty heavily but won’t do that until I see what they are playing in. We all have seen people fade good games/plays due to weather that didn’t end up being a factor. That said, we have also seen plenty that go well under the total in ugly, turnover-packed games. Our brains are sophisticated enough to process it all correctly, so we look to the analytics, which say high winds are not good for passing games. That doesn’t mean one or two guys can’t emerge with a good game, but we want to game stack, and to get that perfect stack (like Cardinals/Seahawks last week), it is likely coming in perfect conditions, and often inside. 

Per PFF: “Derrick Henry has more yards after contact (1,407) in the last calendar year than any player has total rushing yards in that time.”

(Play them all!)

Core plays: Tyler Boyd, Giovani Bernard, Derrick Henry, “Old” A.J. (A.J. Green), “Young” A.J. (A.J. Brown), Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill 

GPP only: Tee Higgins, Jonnu. Smith, Corey Davis 

Cincinnati stacks: 

• Burrow/Henry/Green/Boyd/Brown
• Burrow /Henry/Bernard/Boyd/Brown
• Burrow/Henry/Higgins/Boyd/Brown
• Burrow/Brown/Higgins/Boyd/Smith

Tennessee stacks:

• Tannehill/Henry/Brown/Boyd/Green
• Tannehill/Henry/Bernard/Boyd/Brown
• Tannehill/Bernard/Smith/Boyd/Brown
• Tannehill/Bernard/Green/Davis/Smith

LAC -3. O/U: 44.5
LAC: 23.5 | DEN: 20.5

Pace and playcalling

I got started a bit late on this game and thus will finish it properly when I get up Saturday. It has no weather warnings, but both of these division rivals play each other tough, with these games combining for 33 and 44 points last season. Granted, LAC is cooking with Herbert now, but as I have pointed out before, this Denver D is legit. The team got clobbered last week by KC, but it wasn’t on the D. They remain in the top-10 in both yards and points per drive (seventh in DVOA) 

**UPDATE** 

Sure am glad I waited on this one, as I assumed Philip Lindsay was OUT. I was going to tell you how much I like Melvin Gordon against the Chargers 20th ranked defensive line (adjusted line yards), in a revenge spot.  But, Vic Fangio said that running back Phillip Lindsay (concussion) will go for one more post-concussion evaluation on Saturday, but the team “expects him (Lindsay) to play” in Week 8. Last week, Lindsay only played 18% before leaving the game, but he saw an eye-popping 9 carries on those 14 plays, showing just how much of a RBBC this is. DEN loves him, giving him 23 carries the week before on 40 snaps. Gordon lost two fumbles against the Chiefs, which gives him some more risk, if he were to put another on the ground, you know it will be “Lindsay time”. 

A quick pace summary, this game actually grades out well, tied for the third combined fastest pace (neutral). The issue for fantasy is the 7th (LAC) and 8th highest rush rates. Don’t let Justin Herbert’s success fool you, the Chargers coaching staff is the worst, they continue to keep the shackles on Herbert by asking him to hand it off on first down at such a high rate, especially on first down. With the rookie under center, LAC has run it on 52% of plays for 3.3 YPC (30% success rate). Compare that to when they pass (8.1 YPP, 43% success), you can see how it is holding back the offense. He is throwing on 80% of his third-down attempts (10th), as they continue to put him in 3rd and long situations. It is even worse in the first half, with LAC running on 56% of first downs. 

LAC 

Having Herbert & Kyler as our top-2 QBs last week was fun, posting 41.5 FP on DK. WIth games against KC, CAR, TB, NO, & JAX, he has proven he can do it against the best and the worst. DEN has allowed the 11th most FP to QBs, despite having some luck to keep the scoring down. They faced the impotent Jets, Post COVID-CAM, and that strange snow game last week that ended up a blowout due to KC. They did allow Mahomes 200 yards and a TD in 23 attempts (8.6 YPA), so again, they are not a scary enough unit to cross off the QB4 on the season in terms of FPPG (DEN allowed 7 TD passes in their first 3 weeks). The biggest risk for him is the Denver offense being stagnant and keeping the Chargers in their run-first mode. 

Joshua Kelley handled 66% of LAC’s RB carries last week (3.0 a/ypc). He also matched him in targets, which was not the case before the bye.  Jackson (3.1 a/ypc) has been banged up, so maybe that played a part, but Kelley is the guy they just invested a 4th round pick on, so it makes sense to give him more run (47% to 38%). When I see terrible adjusted YPC numbers like that, you know it is blocking related. LAC is 29th in adjusted line yards, DEN is allowing less than 4 RB YPC this season, making this a tough matchup for two guys in an RBBC. 

Removing Keenan Allen’s injury game (2-29-1 in 12 plays), he has been a LEGIT WR1, yet is still priced at $6.2k on DK. 

As you can see I was telling the truth, with 13.5 targets, 9.5 rec., 103.75 yards are his AVERAGE (22.63 FP). Going further in by selecting just those weeks on our AIR YARDS tool, you can see just how ridiculous he has been (37.75% target share, 40% of MS air yards, 84.63% WOPR). He will be popular, but sometimes you come across such a deficiency in the market, you have to BUY the stock. 

Some folks are talking about Bryce Callahan like he is Jaylen Ramsey in his prime, but that is a bunch of nonsense. He has allowed 19 receptions (65% catch rate) for 8.7 YPR. Like the DEN pass D in general, they have not been tested much since their first three games, where 11 of those 19 catches took place on 13 targets. Keep playing Allen on DK until they correct his price. 

With Tim Patrick suffering a hamstring injury last week, he will miss this game, leaving K.J. Hamler (2-240 on 3 targets last week), and Jerry Jeudy as the primary WRs for Drew Lock. Chargers aren’t a shut down secondary, but they are on the plus side of the spectrum which is not ideal given how bad Drew Lock and this offense as a whole has been. DEN is down with the Jets and Football Team in terms of points and yards per drive. Lock is picking up 4.8 ANY/A which is good for 33rd, while also being the 32nd ranked QB in accuracy. LAC is 9th in pressure rate, Lock is 30th in pressured completion rate and 24th in adjusted sack rate, putting the LAC DST in play. 

Noah Fant is projected to be 2% owned in Kyle’s ownership model, which has me intrigued, He returned from injury to play 70% of the snaps in the blowout, securing 3-of-7 targets for 38 yards, but indications from DEN media is he is/was still not 100% healthy.  Albert Okwuegbunam took advantage of the injury to play about 40% of snaps last week. He now has 13 targets in two games and has a very sexy profile to go with it, ranking in the 99th percentile in height-adjusted speed. WIth all the injuries to the to WRs, Denver has shifted from using 3-WR sets on 73% of plays (weeks 1-5) to just 47% in their last two games. That means Okwuegbumam is not a threat to Fant, rather a little help to try and move the ball a bit. Only the Jets have less RZ trips this season. 

Core plays: Keenan Allen 

GPP only: Noah Fant, Herbert

NO -4. O/U: 45.5
NO: NA | CHI: NA

Weather 

More sustained winds at about 20-25mph (gusts close to 40), with the majority of the game being played with winds more like 15-20mph and 30mph gusts. I will update this game once I get the weather on Sunday. 

Pace and playcalling

Even without bad weather, Chicago is averaging a combined 39.7 combined points per game (last). Their games have gone 2-5 to the UNDER, while New Orleans is still the only team that is perfect (6-0) to the OVER. I don’t know that the Saints can bring the Bears along for the ride like they have, with the Bears averaging 19.7 PPG (29th in yards, 29th in points per drive). 

Saints

Drew Brees has either 300 yards or multiple TD passes in five straight games, and eventually he may put them both together in the same week, but I don’t think this is the spot, without Michael Thomas, on the road in Chicago against the third-pass DVOA (6 TD passes allowed, first).

Alvin Kamara has been a lock-button play in DFS while Thomas has been out, averaging 151 total yards and 9 targets. A low-scoring/bad-weather environment creates fewer first downs, yards, red-zone opportunities and subsequently points. Kamara can get there in a PPR with just the checkdowns and yards, but he is less likely to break the slate like he did against the Packers. Green Bay has allowed over 12 fantasy points per game more to RBs this season than Chicago. At his projected ownership of 30%, I may be fading Kamara on the majority of my teams this week. I will let you know how I am approaching him in the Sunday update. 

Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway (8-75-0 on 10 targets in Week 6) are OUT. That leaves tiny Deonte Harris (4-46-1 on 5 targets) and Tre’Quan Smith (4-54-0 on 4 targets) as starting WRs. Even in a less-than-ideal matchup, I am interested in Smith (weather permitting). He ran a pass route on 100% of Brees’ attempts last time out, so he should get more than 4 targets with Callaway joining the others on the shelf. Smith has been moving around, including inside for his first four games (no slot snaps in his last two). 

Jared Cook led all Saints players with a 61% slot rate last week, catching 3-of-4 targets for 32 yards and a touchdown. The usage is not great, but like Smith, the Saints don’t have many healthy bodies left, making Cook a logical choice to see more targets this week. Bears have allowed four passing TDs to TEs, including one last week (7-75-1 to the Rams TEs). 

Injuries 

• The Saints have ruled out WR Marquez Callaway (ankle), WR Michael Thomas (ankle/hamstring) and G Nick Easton (concussion). 

Bears

New Orleans is allowing 29 PPG this season but is still very good against the run (fifth in adjusted line yards). That sets up the pass-happy Bears to keep chucking it (69.57% pass rate last three games, first) if the weather allows. Nick Foles is already a bit of a mess — 30th in adjusted YPA and 30th in accuracy — so just asking him to keep dropping back 40-plus times a game seems less than optimal, especially if he doesn’t have Allen Robinson (concussion, doubtful).

I will update the Bears also, after we get confirmation Robinson is indeed out, and when we see the weather Sunday morning. 

Injuries 

• WR Cordarrelle Patterson (quad), LB Khalil Mack (ankle), S Eddie Jackson (knee), and S Sherrick McManis (hamstring) are listed as questionable. Jackson and McManis practiced fully and Patterson and Mack were limited Friday after missing practice all week. My guess is all these guys play.

Core plays: Alvin Kamara

GPP only: Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook 

SF +3. O/U: 54
SF: 25.5 | SEA: 28.5

Pace and playcalling

Seattle has been the fantasy gift that keeps on giving, with their games averaging 62.5 PPG. San Francisco is on the other end of the spectrum, averaging 45.3 PPG, with a lot of that being driven by the home blowout loss to MIA. If you remove that game, they have allowed just 15.5 PPG to their opponents. Of course, San Francisco has had a soft schedule, with games against the Jets, Giants and suddenly struggling Patriots. 

This Seattle team is finally playing fast and passing. They rank 10th in neutral pace and third in pass rate. If they can get another lead (a league-leading 8.3 first-quarter points per game), we could get into another shootout, with San Francisco playing at the league’s fastest pace when down just 3 or more points, while also passing at the highest rate (72%). 

Seattle has kept the foot on the gas regardless of the script, passing at the third-highest rate when leading by at least 3 and by at least 7. 

The Seahawks are pushing teams into the pass with their high-powered offense and solid rush D (4.01 adjusted line yards allowed, 11th). 

This game has the highest projected TD total, per PointsBet, with their TD line sitting at 6.5 (+128). There are a couple other games at 5.5, but this is the only one to get pushed up to 6.5. They have averaged 7.7 combined TDs per game this season (Seattle, 4.5 TDs per game). 

That puts this game into the full-stack category, as the late hammer with good weather conditions and a 54 total, we will not be alone, so make sure you have a one-off (maybe two; that is all it takes when a stack hits) with low ownership. Another way that I attack is by running out a full game stack, meaning QB-plus-two or even three WR/TE/RB from the same team and one or two correlated players on the opposing team. 

49ers

The Seattle D is the rising tide that lifts all boats. Seattle is allowing a league-high 373.8 passing yards per game. I gave that stat last week and it felt like a misprint, then they allowed Kyler Murray 360 passing yards on top of 67 rush yards to confirm it is all real. The 49ers average just 33.4 pass attempts per game, but that should get a boost with Seattle allowing the most pass attempts per game (47.8 per game), 6.9 more than second-place CLE. 

In addition, San Francisco is hurting at RB, with Raheem Mostert and Jeffery Wilson OUT. The Athletic’s Matt Barrows reported 49ers RB Jerick McKinnon has “tired legs” in recent weeks, which explains why he only saw 12 snaps in NE. 

Jamycal Hasty could be the man, pending on Tevin Coleman’s (knee) availability. 49ers general manager John Lynch said he’s “hopeful” Coleman can suit up against the Seahawks but will be a game-time decision. Hasty is $5.6k on FD and looked good in NE (10 touches for 79 yards), we just have no idea how McKinnon’s legs are doing. Last week was a blowout win for the Niners, so they had no reason to push McKinnon, with a week to rest and a date against the their rivals, I think McKinnon will operate as the third-down back, which is the role you want in this game. 

With Deebo Samuel sidelined, Brandon Aiyuk should be the alpha once again, after posting the first 100-yard game of his short career last week (6-115-0 on 7 targets). Aiyuk is a beast with the ball in his hands, a player who can make plays on designed runs, as we have seen Kyle Shanahan do so many times since he arrived in SF, as well as making runs after the catch. 

San Francisco has only used 3-WR sets on 41% of plays, using the hybrid Kyle Juszczyk on 32% on average (56% last week) along with TE2 Ross Dwelley. Speedster Richie James also played a season high last week but has yet to see a target. 

It’s going to be a big dose of George Kittle (29.8% team target rate, 27.3% target share), Aiyuk (29% target rate last week in NE), and Kendrick Bourne along with Trent Taylor in the slot when they do run 3-WR formations. All these guys are slot WRs by definition, making Kittle the play of the slate. I know it feels expensive, but he needs to operate as the WR1 essentially, or 1A with Aiyuk, as they simply don’t have anyone else. Russell Wilson is the MVP at his point of the season and he is going to score, so San Francisco doesn’t get to play like it did in the playoffs last season, when Kittle became a $7k blocker. I plan on building a couple GPP teams with both Kittle and Waller, as they both grade out as two top-10 pass-catching options. 

I expected Aiyuk to be super chalk, but we have him between 8% and11%, which is very reasonable given the spot/talent/opportunity. He will be one of my highest-owned WRs, likely 2-3x the field after I see ownership Sunday morning. He has not had a rushing attempt since Week 4 after having back-to-back games with a rushing TD, but that will change this week as Shanahan breaks out all the tricks. 

Seattle has allowed the most targets and second-most fantasy points per game to the slot. Last time the 49ers played against a team that scored a lot (Miami), Kittle lined up in the slot at a 55% rate, three times his season average. What may prevent that is personnel, as they simply don’t have the guys to line up outside to allow it. 

Tre Flowers will be forced back in the lineup, making Bourne another good play to connect with Jimmy Garoppolo or run-back with Wilson. Flowers was annihilated for 20 receptions and 260 yards in two games before getting send back to the bench with Quentin Dunbar coming back from injury. Bourne will see about half of his snaps against Flowers. 

Seahawks

Russell Wilson (32.3 fantasy points per game, QB1), Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf make this one of the easier teams to handicap, especially with Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer all potentially OUT. The two have already seen 43% of RW3’s targets this season, and 50% of his passing TDs. 

San Francisco has faced Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff and Cam Newton. Murray is great for fantasy, but as a pure passer, he is 21st in adjusted yards per attempt. San Francisco can bring pressure, but Wilson is fourth in pressured pass completion rate and is rushing for 39 yards a game, mostly on plays when the blocking breaks down. He is very expensive but deserves a GPP team if you are a multi-entry player. 

Jamar Taylor has not been targeted much this season, just 12 times. But he has allowed 3 fantasy points per target on those 12 attempts, which sets up last week’s hero Lockett for another good spot. 

Metcalf did end up being shadowed by Patrick Peterson for 87.0% of his snaps last week and Peterson was great, holding the Cyborg to 2-23-0 on 5 targets. Metcalf is getting it done with a much lower target/reception rate then I would like in a $7.8k WR. He has four receptions in every game before the dud last week and the six-catch game against Minnesota the game before that. In two games against the 49ers last season, Metcalf was heavily targeted, seeing a combined 22 targets. Jason Verrett has shadowed a bit this season and has been great, allowing the fourth-lowest passer rating in coverage and third-fewest FP. 

David Moore is just in the mix enough to troll, but not enough to use on the main slate. He is a showdown play if you are so inclined. 

Last week, the Seahawks used all three of their TEs, with Will Dissly and Greg Olsen nearly identical in snaps, getting four targets to Olsen’s three. Jacob Hollister also saw three targets making this a situation to avoid. The 31 routes for Dissly were 4x his previous high and he has also seen three red-zone targets in the past two games, so keep an eye on him if you are in deep fantasy leagues. Olsen is 93 years old so is always a play a way from being back on the IR. 

Injuries

Source: Seahawks.com 

• All Pro safety Jamal Adams, who has missed three games with a groin injury, returned to practice on Friday and will be a game-day decision.
• “He worked today,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. “He got some work today so that’s a good sign. It’s a real good sign… We’ll just have to figure it out, see if he’s OK. You’re going see some guys we’re going right to game time on a number of guys.”
• The hope was that Adams would be able to return to practice earlier in the week, but he came down with an illness on Wednesday, meaning he had to be sent home under the league’s COVID-19 protocols. Adams has continued to test negative throughout the week, but that illness still kept him away until Thursday afternoon.
• Asked if there was concern about Adams potentially playing after practicing only once following a long layoff, Carroll said, “Yeah, it’s a big concern. It’s a big concern. That’s a lot to ask. He’s worked out great in his conditioning work and all that. The fact that he had to miss a couple days here really kind of threw a wrench in the works for a smooth comeback. So we’ll have to see what happens at game time.”
• Ryan Neal, who has started the past three games in place of Adams, is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury but should be good to go, Carroll said.
• Three of Seattle’s four running backs — Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer — all came out of last week’s game with injuries. “We’re going all the way to game time on all three guys and just see what happens then,” Carroll said. “We did not practice them this week and that was just to give them every single day to have a chance to get back. So we’ll see them on the field on Sunday.”
• Hyde and Carson did not practice all week, but Homer was able to return to practice Friday.
• Rookie DeeJay Dallas was the only healthy running back on the roster this week and should have a “significant role on Sunday,” according to the team’s website. 
• “He’s had an excellent week,” Carroll said. “He’s right in the middle of the plan and he’s really jacked about the opportunity to carry the load if that would be what happens in this thing. So he had a good week. Later, as the week wore on, I was making sure we were taking care of him. I didn’t want to overwork him. He wanted to take every snap and we didn’t let him do that. But he’s ready to play.”
• CB Shaquill Griffin is OUT. The Seahawks could be activating defensive back D.J. Reed from the non-football injury list.
• Another player the Seahawks could be adding on defense this week is veteran defensive tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison. Harrison signed to Seattle’s practice squad earlier this month and has been working his way back into playing shape with the hopes that he’ll be able to contribute to the defense, and that could happen as soon as Sunday.
• “Without question he had his best week,” Carroll said. “He’s needed the weeks to get going. This was the best he’s looked, and was really moving around well so he’s working to get himself back in there… This week really would make you think that he’s ready to come back and play. He’s getting there. The first couple of weeks that wasn’t the case. He was just getting worked back in shape. He’s lost some weight. He looks a lot better moving around. He’s on his stuff, he knows what he’s doing. He’s in it. So I’m really fired up that he’s competing to get on the field right now.”
• The 49ers have already declared WR Deebo Samuel and RB Jeffery Wilson OUT. WR Richie James (ankle, did not participate), S Jaquiski Tartt (groin, did not participate). LB Kwon Alexander (ankle, limited participation) is doubtful. S Jimmie Ward (quadriceps, limited participation) is also on the injury report.

Core plays: George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Jimmy Garoppolo

GPP only: Kendrick Bourne (I will update the SF RB situation Sunday)

SUNDAY AM UPDATE

Top Stacks: 

SF/SEA

TENN/CINN – The weather sucks, hopefully, that will lower ownership 

OAK/CLE – See above 

MINN/GB – ”      ” 

CASH Core (FD):  Jimmy G – Hunt – JWill – Adams – Aiyuk – Kittle – Saints D 

CASH Core (DK):  Jimmy G – Hunt – JWill – Keenan – AJ Green – Mims –  Kamara  

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE):

J. Taylor

Russ/Lockett/DK stacks

BOYD (Bengals/Tenn Stacks w/ Henry/AJ/Tee/GIO/AJ Brown/J. Smith/C. Davis)

D. HENDERSON

Underweight – Dalvin, Jefferson (Vikings), KC (I am submitting a couple high-$$ KC stacks and a little LEV as a hedge, but they aren’t in the CORE)

Low(er) owned one-offs: Gerald Everett if HIGBEE is out on FD, KENNY G, D. Robinson as a Mims pivot in KC, Fant, Herbert, BOURNE in the FLEX on FD can be used for DeeJay Dallas if Cason is ruled out.