MSG Week 2 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 2.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

BUF -5.5. O/U: 42
BUF: 23.5 | MIA: 18

Pace and playcalling 

If Week 1 was any indication of what’s in store for the 2020 Fins, it is not going to be a fantasy-friendly offense like it was in 2019. Miami started below league average (31.6 seconds per play, 22nd) and sped it up to an average of 26.5 seconds per play once they fell behind (16th). The real issue surfaces when we take a look at their playcalling when down by 7 or more. For those 20 plays, the Dolphins passed at a 55% rate (15th lowest out of 20-teams that were down at least 7), compared to 72% in 2019 (fifth overall). This resulted in 6 fewer plays than their 2019 average. This is par for the Chan Gailey course when looking at his historical pace and playcalling.

Buffalo is a lot more fun to analyze. They ran 81 plays against the Jets (not a misprint), the most in Week 1. They also passed at 60%, despite being in the lead by 7+ for 42 plays. Bills continued to pass at a 62% rate, the 4th highest of 15 teams that had a lead of 7 or more. This could be due to playing away from the strength of NYJ, but it could also be a more aggressive offense with Allen in his third year and the addition of Stefan Diggs. We should get another chance to see them in that spot, with Buffalo drawing a Miami team it has dominated recently. Buffalo has won five in a row in the series, including three straight blowouts by an average score of 36-19.

Bills

Only Cam Newton (against this Miami team) had a higher play-action pass rate than Josh Allen (42%) in Week 1, nearly twice his 2019 rate. That along with an aggressive game plan, lifted Allen to his first 300-yard passing game of his career. He led the league or finished in the top five in countless categories, including fantasy points. What really stood out is 14 RZ pass attempts (first), and three RZ rush attempts (fourth). I realize the Jets stink, but this is Miami, so this is not point chasing. Miami got gashed by Newton on the ground, allowing 15-72-2 to go along with 155 passing yards. We can’t project out that kind of an outlier game in the run … or can we? Allen has averaged 10.3-75.0-0.75 TDs per game against Miami in four meetings. You would think all this would equal Allen being chalky, but that is far from the case, with Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady coming in higher in our FTN ownership projections. With that in mind, he becomes a top-three option for me.

I spoke about Allen’s heat map last week, in terms of his efficiency to the left side, but he was awesome all over the field (Brown, 60% from the left side). Stefon Diggs and John Brown were out there for 93% and 94% of snaps, both running over 40 routes and seeing a combined 19 targets. This was a true “1A” and “1AA” situation, with virtually no difference in their usage. Brown got one more target overall, with three RZ targets (one EZ target), but this will go back and forth throughout the season. Smokey will see Byron Jones for about 60%, who finished third last season in fantasy points allowed in coverage per game but does not shadow. He didn’t in Dallas and didn’t in Week 1, playing 100% on the right side. Still, I like Diggs here if I am choosing one to stack, with Xavien Howard being one of the more overrated CBs. He has the name brand, but in terms of fantasy points allowed per target, he finished 62nd (2018) and 73rd (2019) before getting hurt. Last week he didn’t get tested much, seeing two targets in coverage (two receptions allowed). Diggs also moved inside on 30% of snaps, which would put him in a great spot against UDFA slot CB Jamal Perry or one of their safeties. If you multi-enter, I would also load up an Allen/Brown/Diggs stack. For example, I may have a $150 three-max with the Allen/Diggs combo, so I will play an Allen/Brown/Diggs stack in the 20-max and Milly Maker type GPP.

The biggest risk factor for the Bills passing stack is Devin Singletary (59%, 53 yards on 14 touches) and Zack Moss (45%, 11 touches for 27 total yards). Miami gave up the largest percentage of yards via the ground last week in New England (60.5%), which could give the Buffalo staff ideas to change it up from last week, against the Jets team that funnels teams into the pass. As for playing the backs, this is going to be a gross situation, but we can look to red-zone and passing-game usage to see who gets the edge. Well, Moss got all the RZ work (3 carries, 2 targets), but Singletary outsnapped Moss and ran more routes/saw more targets (7 to 4). This will be a troll situation all season if both stay healthy, but I lean Moss with the expected gamescript this week.

Dawson Knox caught 2 of 3 targets (1 RZ). He and Cole Beasley played 64% of snaps with Beasley getting a healthy 7 targets out of the slot. They are priced up for my liking on DK in one of the more loaded slates I can remember from a value perspective. The Bills played 25% four-WR sets, the most of any team in Week 1. That led to fourth-round rookie WR Gabriel Davis playing a surprising 49% of snaps in his debut. He ran 18 routes and caught both of his targets. He is not a viable DFS play yet, but it is yet another weapon for Allen in this (at least for one week) new-look Buffalo offense. Another positive of spreading out with four receivers is that it creates more space for Allen to run.

Dolphins

After looking at the Pace and playcalling , I won’t have much Miami exposure. If Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be neutered by this offensive system, his appeal drops substantially compared to the 2019 version. Throw in the Bills D (highest DVOA grade for Week 1, second in FPPG allowed to QBs in 2019) and you get an easy fade. 

DeVante Parker re-injured his hamstring and was expected to sit this one out, but he practiced Wednesday and Thursday, which has him on track to return. Both he and Preston Williams have a tough draw against Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace on the outside. White is arguably the best CB in the league, but he stays on one side. This pass defense is just tough, good LBs, good safeties and a solid scheme going into its fourth year. It’s just not a place I want to attack with outside WRs. Where we have attacked this D is with slot WRs and RBs in the passing game. Isaiah Ford could be a guy to put in your player pool as a run-back to your Bills stacks (mass multi-enter only). He is $3.5k on DK after playing 74% of snaps last week (second-highest with the Parker injury), running all of his routes from the slot. Miami’s other slot WR is TE Mike Gesicki, running 78% of his routes from the slot. I am a founding member of the Gesicki fan club, so would not be shocked to see him have a solid game, but he is not a guy I am excited about playing this week. Again, they had the No. 19 pass rate in a game they were down after finishing second-highest 2019 (down by 7-plus), not sure we want anything to do with this passing offense. 

The Miami running attack is a bit of a mess also, with Myles Gaskin (63%) getting 9-40-0 and 4-26-0 (4 targets), Matt Breida (23%), 5-22-0 (2 RZ) and Jordan Howard 8-7-1 (3 RZ, was injured but returned) all playing a role. Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports, “The Dolphins intend to utilize all of Gaskin, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida out of the backfield going forward.” With Gaskin getting four targets, he would be the guy to take a flier on ($4.2k on DK). 

CORE PLAYS: Allen/Diggs, Buffalo D

GPP ONLY: Allen/Diggs/Brown, Moss, Gaskin 

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

DET +5.5. O/U:47.5
DET: 20.5 | GB: 27

Pace and playcalling 

Detroit started with a league-average pace (28.82 seconds per play) but cranked it up to the fastest pace of the week once trailing (19.63, 8 plays). They passed at a 68% pass rate on 29 plays in neutral situations which was the seventh-highest in Week 1. 

The Pack stayed fairly aggressive in terms of pass rate, but they don’t play fast, finishing 30th overall as a result of grinding out the play clock in the second half (34.33, 29th). 

Both teams finished in the top-seven in offensive plays, so if Stafford can keep this close this game could surprise from a fantasy perspective. 

Lions

After posting a few Lions OVER futures, I regret to inform you Kenny Golladay will miss his second consecutive game with a hamstring injury. Things could not be going worse for the Lions and my bets, who after D’Andre Swift dropped a TD pass from Matthew Stafford to fall to 0-1. 

The Lions actually dropped four Stafford passes, but otherwise, he looked like himself pre-injury. I prefer to have Golladay to reach Stafford’s ceiling game, so is not a guy I am looking to play this week on any of my main lineups. That said, at $6.2k (DK) and $7.2k (FD), he is a solid GPP play if you are an MME player. Again, if Swift catches the pass, they are 1-0, and Stafford posts over 24 FP, which would have been good for QB6. 

D’Andre Swift (44% snap, 25% opportunity share) could do some work in the passing game if this thing goes the Packers’ way. The biggest issue is Adrian Peterson (3-21-0, 3 targets on 9 routes) had heavy usage for such a low snap share (14-93-0) seeing a touch on 71.5% of his plays. (31% snap share). He got 4 RZ touches but the only GL carry went to the rookie. Kerryon Johnson played 20 snaps and received seven carries but did not run a pass route. 

Marvin Jones disappointed with a 4-55-0 output on eight targets. This is a tough matchup for Jones, who fits into the No. 2 role perfectly. This week he will get a shadow from Jaire Alexander, who got lit up by Adam Thielen (4-66-1 on 6 targets), but some of that was in garbage time. He one of the better CBs, and without Golladay to take attention, I am not on Jones on any of my three-max LUs. 

T.J. Hockenson has a blue-chip, “Travis Kelce” profile. He should become the alpha with Golladay on the sidelines. It is just one game, but his underlying metrics are jumping off the page (11.2 yards per route run). He caught all five of his targets for 56 yards and a touchdown while just missing a second. He is priced up, so not an optimal cash play, and is a better play on FD at $5.6k (9.5% of cap vs. 10.5% on DK). He is best for Stafford stacks or a run-back to Rodgers. 

Quintez Cephus saw 24.4% of Stafford’s targets (10), running 34 routes (Jones, 39). He finished in the top-10 in air yards and even saw a pair of RZ targets. He converted on three of five catchable targets, so don’t get scared off by his 3-43-0 line. At $3.8k and $4.6k, he will be in my player pool. 

Danny Amendola had the best game of any WR, posting 5-81-0 on 7 targets. He is a bit expensive considering he is still sixth in the pecking order for RZ usage (1 RZ look in his last 27 targets). 

Injuries

(Source: Pride of Detroit) 

• Starters Kenny Golladay, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, and Desmond Trufant remained out of practice — putting all three in serious doubt of playing this week against the Green Bay Packers — backup cornerback Darryl Roberts returned to practice in a limited fashion.
• The addition to the injury report is that of starting left guard Joe Dahl, who is listed with a groin injury. Dahl was limited in Thursday’s practice, and it’s unclear exactly how severe the injury is.

Packers

Desmond Trufant got banged up (yet again). The Lions will have their first-round pick, Jeff Okudah (hamstring) make his debut, but heading into GB without their newly acquired CB is less than optimal. With Justin Coleman on IR, the rookie fifth-rounder Amani Oruwariy will be the primary cover guys against Allen Lazard (58% slot), Marquez Valdez-Scantling and of course Davante Adams. MVS has gotten a lot of hype this week, deservedly so, but Lazard played as the No. 2 (87%, two fewer snaps than Adams). 

Adams got a league-best 17 targets last week (40%, 50% of team air yards), which is what we expected coming into the season with Jimmy Graham gone and the Packers not addressing the position at the draft or in free agency. The Lions were playing very well — it is only when Coleman and Trufant went out that Trubisky started producing. That sets up Aaron Rodgers very well once again, as Detroit simply does not have someone to cover Adams. He will be the chalk, but as we were reminded last week, the NFL is not MLB. There was one WR with 40plus FP last week (Adams), and two others over 30 (DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen). What this means is there isn’t always replacement value at the top of the food chain. If you miss out on a Christian McCaffrey 50-FP week at 40%, you are going to lose. 

Aaron Rodgers had one of his high-ceiling games (33.8 points) against a new-look Vikings defense. I started with the issues in the secondary since they clearly apply to Rodgers and his prospects of another top-five finish. He was second with 12 RZ attempts, a stat he finished fourth in during 2019. He also made nine attempts of 20-plus yards (first) and was third in ANY/A and first in accuracy rating. I know it’s one game, so we can’t go nuts, but this is a Hall of Famer, so we shouldn’t ignore it either. He is only 36, which is well behind Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

Aaron Jones is back as a top-five RB play, getting 16 carries for 66 total yards and a score. His snap share was lower than you would like out of an RB1 (51%), but you can’t complain about 20 touches (4-10-0 on 6 targets). The Pack OL played well, getting 5.19 adjusted line yards per carry (third). Detroit allowed 5.38 adjusted YPC to Chicago, which was only better than GB. He will make a great leverage play again in GPPs if you decide to fade Adams, with his ownership likely a third of his WR teammate’s.

Injuries 

Source: SI.com

• OL Lane Taylor was put on IR; he is out for the season
• Offensive lineman Billy Turner and safety Raven Greene, who did not play Sunday at Minnesota, and offensive lineman Lucas Patrick, who started but exited with a shoulder injury, were on the practice field for the Green Bay Packers Wednesday.
• Starting defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who exited the Minnesota game before halftime with a groin injury, went through rehab in the Don Hutson Center and did not practice.
• Turner, who is listed as the starting right tackle, missed the opener with a knee injury. He was limited participation at Thursday’s practice but did not practice on Friday and was inactive on Sunday. 

CORE PLAYS: Adams (All formats), Aaron Jones (GPP), Hockenson (GPP)

GPP ONLY: Cephus, Peterson, MVS, Lazard, Marvin can be played as one offs. 

If you are a MME player, consider Stafford/Jones/Cephus/Hockenson combos, with two GB players as your runbacks. The thought is these stacks are projecting a shootout, so go all-in on that scenario. This is how you want to think about building GPP rosters, with an expected (hopeful) outcome of a shootout. You want to get some GB stacks also with that in mind, use variations of Rodgers/Jones (yes, stacking QB/RB is OK) with MVS/Lazard/Adams. 

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

LAR +1. O/U: 46.5
LAR: 23 | PHI: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

Without Miles Sanders in Week 1, Philly passed at the highest rate (72%) when tied or up by 3-plus. I would expect that to regress in this game with Sanders practicing in full. The Eagles were only down for eight plays, but passed at a 89% rate and operated at the fastest pace (15.6 seconds per play), so we can count on them to be aggressive and move quickly if the Rams get a lead. 

LAR finished 2019 with the ninth-highest pass rate, so to see them finish 31st after a game with Dallas is an eye-opener. Their pace remained solid, ninth in neutral and 11th fastest with a lead, setting this game up as one of the best from a pure pace perspective. The other positive coming in is Philly’s opponents have been pass-heavy for a few seasons now with the Eagles being a top rush D (third-highest in 2019). 

These teams combined for 65.5 points per game in their two meetings with Sean McVay and Doug Pederson at the helm. This game opened at 48 and has since moved down to 44.5 at some books, despite the public betting up the over at a 63% rate. That tells us the “sharp” money is coming in on the under. The public is also chasing the Sean McVay trends that have the Rams 18-7 (72.0%) record on the road (SU), and 6-1 on the East Coast (ATS).

Rams

The rush-heavy Rams gave their backs 40 rush attempts, second to only the new-look Patriots and +17 from their 2019 average. Malcolm Brown did his “Todd Gurley, circa 2018” impression very well, racking up 21 total touches including four passing targets and both GL attempts. He faced one of the lowest “stacked boxes” rate (six-plus at the line of scrimmage), as Dallas came in expecting to stop the pass. This really helped Brown, who only had one rush attempt against a stacked front (2.2 vs. 6.3 YPC for his other 17 carries). He is way too cheap on FanDuel — a result of playing the SNF game — staying at $5.2k after posting 24.5 FP on that site. The matchup is not good — Philly was top-three in adjusted line yards allowed in 2019 and improved that in the game with Washington. It was only two rush TDs from Peyton Barber that threw off the FPPG allowed. That said, his work on third down and in the passing game is more than enough for us to trust him at his rock-bottom price on FD. On DK, he is $5.7 with a lower cap, making him a GPP-only play. Per PFF, Andrew Whitworth‘s 95.2 grade ranked second among all offensive players in Week 1.

Cam Akers still got 14 carries for 39 yards and a reception in their run-heavy first week. I am all about him still, but we can’t ignore Brown’s usage in this one. He is $400 more on FD, which once again illustrates what a solid value Brown is on that site. 

Jared Goff would be the clear loser if the Rams really plan on going to a more run-heavy scheme. It was one week, so let’s not bury him just yet, but it’s not a great trend for fantasy to see his attempts go from 39.1 (first) to 31 (23rd) in a game that was projected as a shootout. With his continued shaky play under pressure, it makes sense to do this again in PHI, who was sixth in adjusted sack rate in Week 1, fifth in overall pressure rate.

Robert Woods will have to deal with the effects of Goff being under pressure and a potentially lower pass rate, but this dude is as consistent as any WR and continues to be mispriced. He saw 28.6% of targets and 40% of RZ targets (2). He will get a bunch of Darius Slay, unless he rolls into the slot (32%), but he will deal with his former teammate Nickell Robey-Coleman on those plays, so this is not a great matchup on paper for him to hit a ceiling game. 

Gerlad Everett is limited with a back injury but returned to practice Thursday. This is a situation to monitor for Tyler Higbee. As our NFL splits tool shows, Higbee’s four-game run late last year was correlated with Everett being off the field. Eagles gave up 4-37-1 to Logan Thomas on eight targets last week, which will likely be a trend this year with Darius Slay funneling targets away from the WR1.

Eagles

The story of the week in Philly is the offensive line, which got run over by our $2k DST lock, Washington (16.2% adjusted sack rate, 8 sacks allowed). They were also brutal in run blocking, getting 3.06 adjusted yards per carry for their backs (3.44 RB ypc). In comes Aaron Donald, who led the Rams front seven to a 42% pressure rate on Dak Prescott and a superior Dallas offensive line. Lane Johnson is probable but has also admitted to not being fully healthy, so who knows what we get from him. I think Philly will look to get rid of the ball quicker with more short-to intermediate targets to Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and the TEs. They will attack with Sanders, who sat out Week 1 likely to be cautious. The Rams allowed Ezekiel and Tony Pollard to rip off 159 total yards and two TDs. Sanders (for now) appears to be projected for low ownership, which makes me very excited to play him at his ridiculous $6k price tag on DK (LAR allowed 4.88 adjusted YPC to Dallas, 27th). Rams struggled last year in DVOA against RBs in the pass, and got worse at LB. This is a smash spot for Miles. 

DeSean Jackson was your air yards champion for Week 1, seeing a ridiculous 214 (26 more than Julio Jones). DK has not added air yards as a stat, so the positive there is Jackson and Carson Wentz are taking deep shots, which eventually (assuming they stay healthy) will lead to big production as some of those attempts are converted. He will see some Jalen Ramsey, but our WR/CB guru Jeff Ratcliffe does not think he will shadow. 

Jalen Reagor surprised many by suiting up in Week 1. He actually led all WRs with a 59% snap share, posting 1-55-0 on 4 targets. He too had a ton of air yards, but those types of long bombs have a low conversion rate. I would like to see a little more short/intermediate pass targets, otherwise we are dealing with DeSean Jackson Part II in terms of boom/bust receivers. Slot WR Greg Ward led with 7 targets but posted 31 yards on 5 catches. He was essentially the “Oh shit, let me throw the ball to Ward before I take another sack” option for Wentz, seeing 4.4 yards per target (77th). 

No one (except Chris Meaney) has more Dallas Goedert than I do in best ball, so I was thrilled to see him explode for 8-101-1. We have talked over and over about the Philly offense targeting their TE tandem at an historical rate and it was on display again in Week 1 (38%). He played on 86.4% of snaps, ran 31 routes, and saw a team-high 9 targets (17% from the slot). Dating back to last year, he now has 31 targets in his last three regular season games for 20 FPPG on DK (one of those games had Zach Ertz OUT). Dallas will cost you a bit more of your cap on DK, so prefer him on FD. That said, I will have exposure on all sites. 

Back to Zach Ertz: He saved his backers with a TD — otherwise it would have been a two-catch performance. While these two are both healthy, it’s tough to roll either out in cash, not with Mark Andrews and Kelce on the slate to pay up for. 

Injuries 

• WR Alshon Jeffery (OUT)

CORE PLAYS: Sanders, Brown (FD), Rams D 

GPP ONLY: Goedert, Woods, Ertz, Philly D, Higbee 

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

DEN +6. O/U: 43
DEN: N/A | PIT: N/A 

Pace and playcalling 

Denver operated at league average in all situations in Week 1. Their playcalling was also pretty much league. They struggled on third downs, which was the issue last season (31%, 30th). This will be a tough week to break the trend however, with Pittsburgh’s pass rush and effectiveness on third down (36%, seventh in 2019). Drew Lock will get a bit of a break without the terrible towels going crazy, but this is still a tough matchup for the young QB (Pittsburgh had two takeaways in Week 1, led the league with 2.4 per game in 2019). 

Broncos

Drew Lock has had one fantasy relevant start, when the Broncos went nuts in Houston for a half last year and then held off a late charge from DeShawn Watson. Take out that game and he has been dreadful for fantasy, as illustrated by our NFL Splits tool. He will have his moments this season, but this is not the week. Steelers were first in Week 1 with a 54% pressure rate.

Phillip Lindsay is out, putting Melvin Gordon in a good spot to get a heavy workload. He managed well against a tough Tennessee run D, amassing 85 total yards and a TD. The issue is expected gamescript and the Pittsburgh D, which ran through Saquon Barkley (-0.15 adjusted line yards and 0.44 RB ypc). Like Barkely, we will need Gordonto produce in the passing game (6-90-0). Lock targeted his backs five times in Week 1 (15.6%), but did target them at the solid 23.4% rate in 2019. I expect to see more Royce Freeman as the RB2, but also expect Gordon to see a bump to his 64% opportunity share (12th). His price is more palatable on DK, where we can get a full point per reception, but he is best for MME guys. 

Jerry Jeudy looked good (though his two drops are irrelevant). He created over 3.0 yards of separation on his routes, which was impressive. I think we need Courtland Sutton to be out in order to use the rookie in this spot. We saw Noah Fant step into the No. 1 target role, catching 5-of-6 targets for 81 yards and a TD. He is a beast, but this feels like point-chasing a bit, with the Steelers being tough against TEs (second in DVOA vs. TEs in 2019, held Evan Engram to two catches in Week 1). 

Injuries 

• Sutton was limited and is a GTD. “Courtland Sutton practiced for the second consecutive day with a shoulder injury, but the 2019 Pro Bowler is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Steelers, according to Head Coach Vic Fangio.”
  “Courtland’s doing better,” Fangio said. “He did better today than he did yesterday. I think it will still be a game-time decision. He’s truly 50-50.”
• Running back Phillip Lindsay (toe) is OUT. 
• Linebacker Mark Barron (hamstring) is OUT 
• CB A.J. Bouye (shoulder, put on IR)           
• Tackle Garett Bolles is also questionable with an elbow injury, but Fangio said he thought Bolles would be fine for Sunday.
  “I think we’re listing him as questionable,” Fangio said, “but I think he’s a better questionable than Courtland right now.”

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger was back to his old ways in Week 1, tossing 3 TD passes Monday in New Jersey. He came out of the gate a little slow, which is not surprising given the long layoff. There is some worry with the offensive line banged up, but not enough to get me off this Steelers offense. 

The Broncos will roll out rookie slot CB Essang Bassey to face JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot (83.3% slot rate in Week 1). They lost A.J. Bouye and Von Miller (IR) already this season and saw Chris Harris Jr. go to LAC in the offseason, so they have a lot of issues. I have no doubt third-round rookie Michael Ojemudia can be a solid pro, but this is just his second game. Bassey, Ojemudia and Bryce Callahan (played all his snaps on the outside in Week 1) will be tasked to slow down Big Ben, JuJu and Diontae Johnson. Since JuJu played on MNF, DraftKings actually lowered his price to $6.5k. Speaking of poor pricing, Johnson stayed at $4,500 after seeing 10 targets (32.3% target share), making him one of the better low-priced WR options on a slate full of them. James Conner (ankle) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and was not given an injury designation. His injury cost me a nice chunk of dough in the Thursday-Monday slate, so I will not be going back to him. The big thing this does to the slate is it moves Benny Snell off the “good chalk” list like he was when I thought Conner was out. Broncos allowed over 3.5 of yards before contact with Tennessee in Week 1. 

Injuries 

Source: Dale Lolley on Twitter

• James Conner (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday’s practice.
  It’s a miraculous turnaround for Conner, who missed practice entirely on Wednesday. Although he was entrusted as the team’s bell-cow prior to injury in Week 1, it’s still plausible Conner cedes touches and snaps to Benny Snell after the latter appeared (much) more explosive off the bench. Conner’s designation following Friday’s practice will be worth monitoring.

CORE PLAYS: Diontae Johnson (cash or on a Roethlisberger stack), JuJu (GPP, just because we don’t want to stack two Pittsburgh WRs in cash), Steelers DST 

GPP ONLY: Ben/JuJu/Johnson stack, Gordon 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

JAX +10.5. O/U: 43
IND: N/A | JAX: N/A

Pace and playcalling 

Tennessee ran a ton of plays against Denver (78), setting up Ryan Tannehill to pass 43 times, his most since joining the Titans. They played quickly, ranking in the top-10 in neutral and overall pace after finishing 19th and 22nd, respectively. 

Jacksonville passed at just 51% rate in Week 1, down from 61.86% a year ago. Even more concerning is the fact that they passed at a 53% rate on their 23 plays while trailing by 3 or more (68% in 2019). Their pace was also painfully slow, finishing 31st in neutral pace at 36 seconds per play. If Derrick Henry is having his way on the ground, and Jax is grinding out 30- to 35-second plays, this one could be a bust for most of the ancillary options in this game. “Ancillary,” meaning “players not named Derrick Henry.”

Jaguars

For all the reasons above, I don’t have much interest in Gardner Minshew or the Jaguars passing attack here. He was 19-of-20 passing last week for 173 yards and 3 TD passes. That kind of efficiency is unsustainable, so without pace or volume, I would rather look elsewhere for this week and see if this is the new normal or a one-week anomaly. 

James Robinson emerged as an every-down back for Jax in their slower, more run-heavy offense. He played 68% of the snaps, compared to 24% for Chris Thompson, running one more route (1-28-0 on 1 targets) and accounting for the fourth-highest opportunity share of any RB in Week 1. He looks better than I had pegged him for, making some guys miss tackles, including a Saquon-like leap over a defender. That game stayed close, so I assume Thompson eats into that usage rate if the script goes against the Jags staying slow and running. Robinson is still $4.4k, making him one of the best value RBs on DK ($5.3k on FD). Tennessee was nothing special in Week 1 against the rush, finishing 21st in adjusted line yards allowed (Denver backs racked up 133 total yards and a TD on 28 touches).

D.J. Chark operated as the alpha, playing the most snaps, and running the most routes. The issue is 20 pass attempts (Chark, 15% target share) and the addition of Laviska Shenault (4 targets, 1 RZ). Shenault’s presence, along with incumbent Keelan Cole (5-47-0 on 5 targets) and offseason addition Tyler Eifert make Chark a riskier proposition than he was in 2019, when he saw 22% of targets on a team that passed at the ninth-highest rate overall and even higher when trailing (which was basically the entire season). He saw only 3 targets, catching all of them for 25 yards and a score. The defense also played better than anticipated — I don’t expect that to continue, but that is yet another risk factor on these Jax passing options. They are firmly in the GPP-only section until further notice. As much as I like Chark, he now has fewer than 50 receiving yards in five of his last six. 

Titans

One advantage of waiting until late in the week to do this article — besides having more accurate injury reports — is seeing player props come out to see where the market is on a certain player. This week it is Derrick Henry’s 118.5 rush yards prop that sticks out. We have seen some at 100-plus, but I personally can’t remember a line as high as 118. The big man handled nearly all of the Titans RB touches (94% opportunity share, first), with only a Khari Blasingame reception prevented it being 100%. What may have been lost among his league-leading 31 carries (31-116-0) was his 22 routes run, the fourth-most among all RBs in Week 1.

Ryan Tannehill has been ultra-consistent since taking over for Marcus Mariota. We all keep waiting for it to end, citing a lack of volume and hyper (unsustainable) efficiency, yet here we are again after another 249 yards and 2 TDs (19.2 FP). 

Adam Humphries should be busy with A.J. Brown out. He saw 7 targets in Week 1, working out the slot for 88% of his snaps. Jacksonville allowed 7-85-0 to Indianapolis slot WRs, making Humphries one of the best punt WR3/flex options you need to jam in Davante Adams, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, etc. He has averaged 10.15 FPPG on DK in his last two matchups with Jacksonville, and now gets the usage bump with Brown out. He is a better play on the full-PPR site. 

Corey Davis is one of the strongest WR plays on the slate. Fantasy football folks spend years getting to know prospects, which create biases that carry into their decisions. This happens so often with players like Davis (see Breshad Perriman circa 2019). Considering his draft capital, I get those guys being worn out by this dude, but this is DFS, so none of that matters. We only need him for a week. A.J. Brown’s absence opens up a 20% target share for the guys remaining. It normally is distributed down the line by existing target share, meaning Davis should pick up 1.5-2 targets at minimum. He should see both C.J. Henderson (NFL’s top rookie performer in Week 1), and Tre Herndon on the outside with Kalif Raymond stepping into Davis’ role as the flaker or “Z” WR in the formation. 

I think they play even more two-TE sets also (39% in Week 1), putting Anthony Firsker (40% snap share) and MyCole Pruitt (38%) on the field along with Jonnu Smith (73%). These guys are the biggest risk to the Humphries play (10 combined TE targets, 2 RZ in Week 1). Tennessee targeted their TEs at a 25% rate in 2019, fifth-highest. Smith is the man we need to know for DFS, after posting 4-36-1 on 7 targets in Denver. Jacksonville has a bad LB unit, making Smith a solid TE1 option this week with Brown out. 

CORE PLAYS: Henry, Robinson, Jonnu Smith (Prefer on DK), Davis, Humphries (DK)

GPP ONLY: Chark, Tannehill 

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

DAL -5. O/U: 52
DAL 29 | ATL: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

This is the best Week 2 game from a pace perspective, with Dallas finishing first and Atlanta third in overall pace in Week 1. They passed at a 73% (ATL) and 67% rate after falling behind. We think Dallas would go more run heavy if they get control of this one, but that is a very big if with this Dallas D. This game is the clear chalk, and I understand the contrarian wanting to look elsewhere, but I have a hard time seeing this game completely bust. Maybe the backups troll the TDs, but we are talking about 11 talented fantasy players, in high-octane offenses, playing indoors against an aggressive opponent. The likelihood of them all busting is infantile, so I am stacking this thing 10 different ways. Not just a WR and a QB either, I mean 4-3, 3-3, 3-2 stacks. Sometimes when a game is chalky, it pays to just go all the way with your stack (4-4), as most people won’t go all in like that on one game, and when they do, they mess up the correlation. On that note, our partners at Saber Sim have a correlation feature that is very helpful when deciding which players make sense together. All the starters outside of Russell Gage will carry approximately 15% ownership or higher, with Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliot, Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones at the 20-25% range.

Falcons

Matt Ryan picked up from 2019, attempting a league-high 54 pass attempts in Week 1 (450-2-1). He just needs protection. When he gets it, he rips apart opposing defenses as he did in Week 1. In 2019, he had the highest pressure rate at just under 40 of his dropbacks. Last week, it was down to 23%. Dallas only got pressure on Jared Goff 20% of the time, which led to him averaging 8.9 YPA (fourth) and posting 275 yards on just 31 attempts. With Byron Jones in Miami, the Cowboys just don’t have the personnel to match up against Jones, Ridley and Hayden Hurst. He projects out right behind Dak, with Prescott having the potential to get points with his legs. That said, Ryan will come in at a lower ownership rate, making him grade out very high for me. 

Hayden Hurst ran the most routes of any TE last week in a tough matchup with Jamal Adams and the Hawks. Let’s hope that box score keeps his ownership down, because he is in a smash spot. Dallas allowed the most receptions to TEs in 2019, and already lost LB Leighton Vander Esch for the season, joining Sean Lee on IR (Lee can return). Jaylon Smith struggles in coverage, so look for Hurst to pop for a big game in this matchup. 

Julio Jones (26% slot rate) is possibly the greatest WR of all time (Super Bowls have nothing to do with it). His TD rate is still baffling, with Julio scoring 14 TDs to Ridley’s 19 since the latter joined the league despite Julio seeing over 100 more targets over that span. He will see a lot of rookie Trevon Diggs who Julio should be able to have some success against. 

Jones was limited in practice this week, but there is “low concern” heading into Week 2, according to Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. We have seen this episode before, many times. Julio is banged up, makes everyone worry about playing him, and then goes off at a reduced ownership rate. I am going to update my thoughts on Jones Sunday morning, but for now I am not going to worry about it. 

Calvin Ridley (15% slot rate) came up huge for us in our ATL/SEA game stacks last week. He posted 9-130-2 on 12 targets, while racking up nearly 200 air yards and getting 75% of Ryan’s EZ targets. His primary matchup is not as good as Julio’s (Chidobe Awuzie), but he is not someone to worry about in this spot. Both he and Jones move around the formation quite a bit, and none of these Cowboys CBs are going to travel. If that isn’t enough, slot CB Anthony Brown (ribs) is questionable after being a limited participant in Friday’s walkthrough. 

Russell Gage posted 9-114-0 on 12 targets. Many are noting that his production came in the fourth quarter, but it all counts. That same scenario (the Falcons getting their ass kicked) is probable, which would open up Gage and all these guys for some prime GTP (garbage time production). Atlanta runs mostly three-WR sets, so he will be out there for 70%, at low ownership/price in the slates most likely shootout. 

Todd Gurley only played 45% of snaps in his debut (68% opportunity share). He only ran 12 pass routes but saw a healthy 5 targets. If the game stays closer to than last week, or ATL has a lead, I expect his usage to tick up a little. He got 5 RZ carries (three inside the 5), so he will have a healthy TD prop at kickoff. 

Cowboys

Dak Prescott is ranked behind only Lamar Jackson in my Week 2 ranks. I am worried a bit about LT Tyron Smith missing the game with La’el Collins and Cameron Erving already on the shelf. Luckily, Atlanta does not have a strong pass rush (sixth-lowest pressure rate in Week 1). That is pretty much the only thing that can derail the Boys bouncing back, with Dak completing 80% of his passes when clean, and 30% when under duress against the Rams. 

Ezekiel Elliott looked great, posting 127 total yards and 2 TDs. He has 8 TDs in his last five games, and Dallas could look to protect their QB by simply running the ball. Even with the injuries, the offensive line was sixth in adjusted line yards per carry. 

Amari Cooper is in a smash spot. He is nursing a bruised foot but has no injury designation. I hope the injury reports keep some people off him, but I am not counting on it. A.J. Terrell and Isaiah Oliver allowed 180 yards and a score to SEA outside WRs, which also sets up Michael Gallup for a get0rhgt game after the pass interference call from hell. 

CeeDee Lamb operated as a full-time slot WR, playing 82% of snaps inside. He will see Darqueze Dennard as his primary WR, but slot guys also get to work on safeties and even a LB on occasion. Speaking of that, Dalton Schultz will step in for Blake Jarwin (IR, out for the season). I don’t have much interest in playing Schultz, but I do give a slight bump to both Lamb and Zeke as the guys running routes in the middle of the field. 

CORE PLAYS: Elliott, Hurst, Cooper, Ryan, Jones (prefer on DK), Gallup, Lamb

The pricing is so soft, I am considering stacking this game in cash. I know it is unconventional, but I like my chances with a full game stack here against traditional cash game lineups

GPP ONLY: Prescott, Ridley (fine for cash, just felt ridiculous listing so many guys), Gurley, Gage

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CAR +9.5. O/U: 42
CAR: 20 | TB: 30

Pace and playcalling 

We have grown so accustomed to this matchup being a fantasy bonanza that it is strange to see a 42 total. Tampa played very slow, ranking 29th in neutral-situation plays, and then sped up all the way to 12th-fastest once they fell behind. With this being a gamescript that should lean to TB, the team could slow down and leave us wanting more. Both sides have so much offensive firepower, it shows just how important Pace and playcalling  are. 

Carolina also took a turn for the worse, passing at the third-lowest rate when trailing (53% overall, 64% in 2019). With the new system and matchup against a tough Bucs defense, I am off the Panthers this week on my main lineups. I will have some Tom Brady/Christian McCaffrey/Mike Evans stacks, as TB continues to give up production to RBs via the pass while locking them down on the ground (3.12 adjusted yards allowed, second). 

Buccaneers

Both DT Kawann Short and DE Yetur Gross-Matos are OUT, making a bad situation worse for CAR. The Panthers are going to be the “get well” defense this season. They have allowed 36 PPG in their last five and lost 10 of 11 overall. They are starting to break into the record books for all the wrong reasons. 

The big news is the health of Chris Godwin, who is doubtful. That paves the way for Mike Evans to absolutely crush this secondary. I know that seems crazy, after he was shut down last week. But CAR has no one even remotely close to Marshon Lattimore and his $6.4k price tag is just too low for no Godwin + CAR. 

Ronald Jones got 17 carries and 3 targets in 33 total snaps in Week 1. That was good enough for the eighth-highest opportunity share in Week 1. Now Jones gets the mother of all RB matchups, with CAR on an epic streak of futility against the position (5.32 RB yards per carry in Week 1, six straight with multiple RB TDs). Rob Gronkowski (77.1%) and O.J. Howard (52.9%) were about even in pass routes run, with Howard getting 6 targets to Gronk’s 3, including two RZ targets and a TD. I can see this being a week-to-week situation so not too excited about playing either. 

Injuries 

• According to the final injury report of the week, the Buccaneers will be without just one player for their home opener Sunday. That player is tight end Antony Auclair, who is battling a calf injury sustained this week. Both receivers ?Chris Godwin? and ?Mike Evans? were upgraded with the latter practicing fully for the first time since the season began.
• Godwin was limited in Friday’s practice and has been officially been listed as “doubtful” for Sunday’s game as it remains unclear if he’ll be able to exit concussion protocol in time to take on the Carolina Panthers. The other four players listed on the Bucs’ injury report should be ready to go for the divisional matchup.
• TE Antony Auclair (calf) – Did Not Participate – OUT
• WR Chris Godwin (concussion) – Limited Participation – DOUBTFUL
• DL Ndamukong Suh (not injury related) – Did Not Participate

CORE PLAYS: Evans, Jones, Bucs D, CMC

GPP ONLY: Brady, Scott Miller 

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts

MIN +3. O/U: 46.5
MIN: 23 | IND: 25.5

Pace and playcalling  

The Vikings came out with their slow pace and rush offense in mind last week, operating at the 30th-fastest pace in neutral situations. They were forced out of that quickly, scoring a ton of garbage points/fantasy points late. In the second half they played at 22 seconds per play, a 14-second difference (fourth overall) from their neutral pace. This was the biggest disparity I saw in Week 1. Even with the fast pace, they stayed at a 57% pass rate when down by three or more (eighth-highest rush rate in that situation). That is my concern — if Minnesota controls the game early with Dalvin Cook, they will be very happy to run it 40-plus times and grind the clock. They saw the film of their D and likely are thinking their best hope is the ol’ “ball control offense” game plan.

Vikings

Dalvin Cook got 13 touches for 48 yards, but scored twice to make his investors happy … or at least not pissed. The issue was usage (58% opportunity share, 19th), playing only 57% of snaps compared to 33 snaps for Alexander Mattison (37%), C.J. Ham (23%) and Ameer Abdullah (4%). When we pay for a back at his price point, we need a top-10 usage rate. Cook is a stud and will likely post another solid line, but he is not my priority this week in cash or SE with so many backs ranking higher. Mattison saw four targets, which is important to note with the Vikings D in some trouble this season. If we take away the Cook TDs — which we know are volatile from week to week — we are left with 50 total yards and one reception. He will be a player to keep a close eye on again this week. 

Adam Thielen got the elite usage rate we expected with Stefon Diggs in Buffalo. He saw 32% of Kirk Cousins targets but did most of his damage in garbage time (4-78-2 in the fourth). Regardless, the points count, and the targets aren’t going anywhere with Olabisi Johnson, Justin Jefferson and Tajae Sharpe combining for 8 targets in a game they were behind from the start. 

There aren’t any other Minnesota skill position players I am interested in this week, with so much usage going the way of Thielen and the RBs. Last week was the best script those guys could ask for, and still only Johnson (4) got more than three targets. As always, if I come up with something for this game or any other game, I will update and tweet. 

Colts

It’s Jonathan Taylor Chalk Week with Marlon Mack put on IR. Taylor only picked up 22 yards on the ground in Week 1, but caught six of seven targets for 67 yards. This is not the Minnesota D we are used to, finishing 25th in adjusted line yards allowed to the Pack (176 total yards to GB backs on 37 touches). With Mack out of the way and the passing-game usage, Taylor is a lock.

Nyheim Hines also got 15 touches, catching eight balls for 45 yards. I know he punched in a couple TDs, but I would rather throw those out and focus on the passing-game work. Philip Rivers loves to target RBs, so Hines is not going to be in the mix, with gamescript being his biggest risk. 

T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell are terrific plays this week. It is just a matter of how many Colts you want to run out in cash. This is not your father’s Vikings defense. The secondary is inexperienced, and it showed last week as Aaron Rodgers shredded them for 364-4-0. I will have a good amount of exposure to these two, just not sure they are going to make the cut in cash. Check back for the final call on them and Mo Alie-Cox, who is also in play now that Jack Doyle has been ruled out. 

Injuries 

• After not practicing all week, it isn’t surprising to see rookie cornerback Cameron Dantzler ruled OUT of this one with a rib injury. Hopefully he’ll be on the mend and back in the lineup soon.
• Other than that, the Vikings have no injury issues to speak of. Both cornerback Jeff Gladney and wide receiver Olabisi Johnson missed Wednesday’s practice with knee issues, but both participated in full on Thursday and Friday so they’re good to go.
• Jack Doyle is the lone member of the Colts that has already been ruled out of this one. They do have several players listed as questionable, however, notably defensive end Justin Houston, who did not practice on either Thursday or Friday.
• The Colts also gave three of their veterans rest days on Friday, as defensive lineman Denico Autry, offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo, and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton sat out of the Colts’ Friday practice session.
• Those are your final injury reports for this one, folks. We’ll have more for you on this one as we get closer to kickoff.

CORE PLAYS: Taylor, Alie-Cox 

GPP ONLY: Hilton, Campbell (only because we don’t want to stack too many Colts in cash), Philip Rivers, Hines

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

NYG +5.5. O/U: 43.5
NYG: N/A | CHI: N/A

Pace and playcalling 

The Giants played at a top-12 neutral pace, dialing it up to 20 seconds per play when trailing, the fifth-fastest pace of Week 1. Dallas has operated very quickly under Jason Garrett, so this is not a huge shock, especially with them falling behind at half. They passed a 68.75% rate, which is right in line with their last three games in 2019 and slightly higher than their season average. They also used the most no-huddle, which we tend to see decline on the road. That said, it’s 2020 and there are no fans in Chicago, so we may not see those no-huddle splits surface like normal. 

The Bears were behind for three-plus quarters last week and played at a league-average pace for those snaps (26 sec per play). What stands out is there wasn’t much different than their neutral pace (+2 seconds), which is promising for their fantasy commodities. 

Giants

Saquon Barkley posted six rushing yards against PITT. I know you don’t want to play him in Chicago, but that is a mistake. The Giants OL was completely overwhelmed by the PITT front seven, leaving Barkley with the inevitable designation of RB with the fewest yards before contact in Week 1. Chicago allowed 3.82 yards before contact to Lions backs (4.7 YPC). Another thing to be positive about Barkley was his use as a WR. He lined up at the slot position at the second-highest rate of any back in Week 1. Even with all those positive indicators for a bounceback, he has yet to make it on to one of my main lineups on either site. This slate is loaded, so tough decisions will need to be made. It seems like a good slate to multi-enter. 

Daniel Jones has smashed plus matchups, and struggled against tougher defenses. This is very logical considering his inexperience. He still managed a solid game against Pittsburgh, which projects out as a top-three defense. Still, he is not a guy we need to target this week on any of our main lineups. I may make 150 lineups if I have time Sunday morning, and if I do I will share my exposures to guys like Jones and the Giants passing options like Darius Slayton, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. 

Injuries 

Source: Ryan Dunleavy

• Golden Tate, who missed a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers due to a hamstring injury, appeared to ratchet up his participation, but head coach Joe Judge sounded less than optimistic about his chances to play.
  “Obviously, I’m expecting him to practice today like he has the rest of the week. We’ll take a look at him today and see how he looks in practice. But he’s been working hard with the trainers and has progressed nicely,” Judge said, refusing to commit to Tate one way or the other.
  It’s likely that Tate, who is listed as questionable, will be a game-time decision.
• Joining Tate with a questionable designation is rookie linebacker Carter Coughlin, who made his NFL debut in Week 1, primarily playing on special teams. He has been limited this week with a hamstring injury.
• Meanwhile, veteran defensive back Adrian Colbert, who was added to the injury report on Thursday, is out with a quad injury.
• Finally, rookie linebacker Tae Crowder, who was inactive on Monday night and missed practice last week due to a hamstring injury, did not receive a designation and appears cleared to play.

Bears

Allen Robinson is popping in our model after getting 25% of team targets and 47% of team air yards. He moved all over the formation, running 40% from the slot. The Giants continued to get sliced up inside after JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 6-69-2, setting both Robinson and Anthony Miller up well. The issue with trusting these guys is their QB, so save them for GPP stacks. 

David Montgomery played 29 snaps (44%), handling 61% of the RB touches and was good, posting 74 total yards on 14 touches. One of the biggest surprises for me was the Chicago offensive line, which finished second in adjusted line yards. Montgomery was top-10 in evaded tackles and top-four in yards created per carry. He also saw 3 targets en route to the 13th-highest opportunity share (coming off the hamstring injury in a negative gamescript). The Giants gave up 100 yards to Benny Snell after James Conner left (5.5 adjusted YPC). Playing at home, in a game the Bears could be up in the second half, Monty is a solid play that will come in at around 5%. 

Injuries 

Source: Bears PR

• The Chicago Bears combination of edge rushers, Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, have been listed as questionable for Week 2’s home opener against the New York Giants, the team announced Friday.
  Quinn completed his first ‘full’ practice of the 2020 season, while Mack was limited with a knee injury.
  “I’m going to be ready on Sunday,” Mack said Friday.
  The Bears’ pass rush has a huge opportunity to get on track against the Giants, whose offensive line surrendered the most pressures of any team in the NFL in Week 1.
  Giants coach Joe Judge fully expects Mack and Quinn to play, and to be effective too.
  “I’d be surprised if those players don’t play,” Judge said. “We’re fully anticipating seeing those top-end defensive players, especially the edge players going as hard as they can for 60 minutes.”

CORE PLAYS: Robinson

GPP ONLY: Montgomery, Miller, Engram, Mitchell Trubisky 
 

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets

SF -7. O/U:43.5
SF: 25 | NYJ: 17.5

Pace and playcalling 

49ers

The interesting thing about this matchup is it is strength vs. strength, with both teams being strong in the run. Buffalo backs managed just 3.29 adjusted yards per carry, after this front seven finished first in that category in 2019. I have no doubt San Francisco can grind out a win on the ground against this porous Jets offense, but I think Jimmy Garoppolo could have success if they choose to open it up. 

Garoppolo and friends travel to New Jersey to play the Bad News Jets. The public is pounding the Niners, despite losing at home to the Cards and George Kittle, which tells you all you need to know about the state of the Jets. 

Brandon Aiyuk is back from a hamstring injury and will make his NFL debut in a great spot. Deebo Samuel is still on IR, which left SF relying on Dante Pettis and Kendrick Bourne as their primary receivers. Aiyuk is a first-round talent with great after-the-catch abilities built for this offensive scheme. It is not a comfortable play, not knowing what kind of snap/target share he will get, but I will be taking the plunge in GPPs. At his price point, if SF does decide to feature him as their primary, he could be a slate-breaker. Bourne saw another two end-zone targets, and seems to have one game per season with multiple TDs, so he would be my choice to stack up with Jimmy G if you don’t trust the rookie coming off a hamstring injury. We saw what Josh Allen did to this secondary in the red zone, so I will have some exposure to the Niners passing offense. 

If the game turns one-sided, I can see the running game overcoming the tough Jets rush D. But with Jerick McKinnon a confirmed thing, and Tevin Coleman likely getting more usage now that he is out of the fire zone, it is tough to trust Raheem Mostert in this spot. 

San Francisco also added Mohamed Sanu, but I can’t find much info at the time of writing this on their plans for him this week. 

Jordan Reed played 10 snaps, ran five pass routes and caught both of his targets or 12 yards. Before scoffing, keep in mind all the SF WRs caught four balls combined. I like most of you have been burned by this guy and have attended his fantasy funeral at least three times now. But hell, I played freaking Robert Tonyan last week on 80% of my lineups (and won a few thousand). When a TE is priced at $2.5k on DK (Reed is $2.6k), the equation changes, you are doing it as a punt, to squeeze in the high-priced guys you need to cash (Davante Adams, Ezekiel Elliott, etc.). I will be monitoring ownership reports before making my final call here. 

Injuries 

Source: 49ers Web Zone

• Tight end George Kittle missed his third practice of the week and has been ruled “out” of Sunday’s game due to a knee injury. Kittle suffered the injury just before halftime during Week 1’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Cornerback Jason Verrett is the only other 49ers player who has officially been ruled “out” — other than those on injury lists.
• Defensive end Dee Ford experienced some neck stiffness this week and underwent further tests. He has been listed as “questionable” to play against the Jets.
• On the Jets’ side, wide receiver Jamison Crowder has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. That is significant considering the 49ers are going to be without veteran cornerback Richard Sherman for at least the next three games.

Jets

I am fading the J-E-T-S, JETS-JETS-JETS. I understand there is a ton of opportunity available with all the injuries, so no issues if you roll out Christopher Herndon. He saw 21% of targets last week, and gets the bump with Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell on the shelf. 

Injuries 

Source: Gang Green

• Wide receiver Jamison Crowder has been officially ruled out of the game with a hamstring injury. It seemed like we were trending in this direction after he sat out Thursday’s practice. The Jets had plenty of issues at wide receiver before losing Crowder, but now they will need to figure out how to deal with the San Francisco defense without him.
• Linebacker Avery Williamson is listed as questionable. He was limited in practice all week. Williamson could help against San Francisco’s run game, but we will need to wait and see whether he will be able to suit up for a regular season game for the first time since 2018.

CORE PLAYS: 49ers D, Reed (have not decided if he will be in the cash core yet)

GPP ONLY: Jimmy G/Aiyuk/Bourne

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

BAL -6.5. O/U:52.5
BAL: 30 | HOU: 22

Pace and playcalling 

Ravens

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are once again your top stack of the week. This is not a hot take — it will cost you over $17k to do it on FanDuel, which is 30% of your total cap. That is not optimal, so these two won’t be as heavily owned as they should on that site. Like all matchups, this sets extremely well for the MVP. Houston was fifth in adjusted line yards allowed against KC. I know that is a running back stat normally, but with Jackson we are buying his inflated price for the rushing. That is one reason I am fine rolling him out naked in cash games, as our ideal scenario is him rushing for 100-plus and scoring 3 rushing TDs, a scenario that would make it hard for a $7.5k Andrews to pay off. 

Greg Roman said the Ravens’ running back roles will change every week. Yikes, just want we want to hear as DFS players. Reading the tea leaves, I would say that means Mark Ingram is in line to get a TD or two, after rookie J.K. Dobbins punched in two scores last week on just seven total touches. This is a nightmare of a situation, let the MME guys try to get this right, avoid it on three-max. 

Marquise Brown looked great as advertised, posting 101 yards on 5 catches (6 targets, 18.8-yard aDOT). Only a TD prevented the chalk WR from really paying off big, which is likely to happen this week. 

Injuries 

Source: Ravens Wire

• Baltimore did get a scare last week when left tackle Ronnie Stanley left the game with an ankle injury and then didn’t practice Wednesday with a hip injury, but his return to practice Friday bodes well for his chances to play this week.

Texans

I think Houston can put up fantasy points in garbage time, but I do not want to play expensive players with the hope they get blown out and put up garbage time production. Deshaun Watson struggled under pressure in KC (he completed just 1-of-7 passes for six yards, taking four sacks), so I expect the Ravens to do their best to do the same. 

With Duke Johnson doubtful, David Johnson is primed for a heavy usage day in his home debut. David Johnson was good in KC, racking up 109 total yards and a score. He was sixth in routes run among all RBs, so he should be script-proof. With so much ownership going to a few backs, guys like David Johnson will be ultra-contrarian. Cleveland backs amassed 140-plus total yards on 27 touches (5 receptions). 

Since writing this, Duke has made progress, so I plan on looking into Houston Saturday and will update if I find something. As of now, I don’t have any Texans players on any of my main lineups. 

CORE PLAYS: Jackson, Andrews, Brown (GPP only)

GPP ONLY: Ingram, Dobbins (both are best for large-field GPPs), Ravens D 

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

KC -8.5. O/U:49
KC: 29.5 | LAC: 19.5

Pace and playcalling 

Chiefs

Like Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are a platinum-level stack. They are both priced up so high that it becomes somewhat contrarian to just pay up for them both in a spot like this. The entire KC offense (outside of Clyde Edwards-Helaire) seems to be going a bit overlooked. The biggest issue, besides LAC having a legit D, is the high rush rate KC rolled out in Week 1. They only passed on 49% of plays, down 12% from 2019. Sure, it was just one game, but I don’t know if the Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers can score enough to get them out of it. CEH was awesome, putting up nearly 3 yards created per carry and 5.5 overall. I can also see LAC wanting to run it a ton with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley (third-highest rush rate in Week 1). For these reasons I am extremely underweight on this game. If anything changes, I will update. 

Chargers

Austin Ekeler broke my heart in Week 1. Heading into the afternoon games, I was sitting it great spot to win a good amount of coin, but it was not meant to be. Sure, Ekeler played 50 snaps, a career-high (19 carries, also a career-best). The issue was one target and a vulture TD by Kelley. This week (assuming Taylor knows how to throw a pass to a running back), Ekeler is set up very well, with Kansas City historically bad against RB passes. I have him all over my best ball and fantasy leagues, so I will sit this one out in DFS. I will be happy to be wrong. 

My favorite player to run back on a KC stack is TE Hunter Henry, who saw 27.6% of Taylor’s targets in Week 1. As I said last week, Tyrod likes to throw to the TE, and this offense is already geared that way anyways. Mike Williams is also appealing in this spot at just $4.2k on DK. The big WR saw a team-high 31% target share, catching just 4 of 9 targets.

CORE PLAYS: CEH, Henry 

GPP ONLY: Mahomes/Kelce/Hill, Williams 

Washington Football Team vs. Arizona Cardinals

AZ -7. O/U 46.5
WASH: 19.75 | 26.75

Pace and playcalling 

Washington played at the fourth-fastest overall pace in Week 1, a night-and-day switch from 2019. When you combine that to the Cardinals’ fast pace (fifth overall/fifth neutral), you get a top-two game from a pace and playcalling perspective. Washington still stuck to a more run-heavy playcalling scheme (sixth-lowest pass rate in Week 1) — in their 25 plays while down by a FG or more, they only passed at a 58% rate.

Football Team

J.D. McKissic (31) led the way for Washington in RB snaps. Peyton Barber (29) was next, followed by the rookie, Antonio Gibson (18). I like Gibson, and I think he takes this job at some point, but for now it is a three-headed monster and I will look elsewhere. 

I don’t have a ton of interest in many Washington players outside of Logan Thomas at TE. The Cardinals have become well-known as the friendliest teams for TEs, allowing the most TDs to the position in 2019. George Kittle posted 4-44-0 in about 12 minutes before getting hurt, so don’t think they have fixed the problem. It was simply hidden for Week 1 due to the injury. 

Terry McLaurin is the clear No. 1 in Washington, but he is still tied to a shaky (at best) QB. With so many WRs I like this week, we need to cross some good players off the list, and F1 is one of those guys. 

Cardinals

DeAndre Hopkins set a new career-high in Week 1 with 14 receptions. He and Kyler Murray looked like longtime teammates, connecting on 14 of 16 targets. Murray also racked up 13-91-1 on the ground against the 49ers, setting him up as one of the more popular DFS QBs for Week 2. Personally, I would rather pay up for Dak Prescott or Matt Ryan and get exposure to that game. As I said last week, Washington is no joke up front, and the team’s secondary played very well (first in pass DVOA for Week 1), so I would rather keep him for GPPs. 

Kenyan Drake is the other chalky AZ player on the slate. After 18 touches and targets, he got a price reduction, falling under $6k, which is too cheap. He played 58 snaps (72%) and ended up with the 16th-highest opportunity share. Still, the reason I didn’t invest in seasonal came to fruition in Week 1, with Drake losing a TD to Chase Edmonds (6 carries, 5 targets). I like Drake, but when I see him go over 20% ownership, I want to fade. Not only does he have Edmonds to contend with, Drake also has a QB who can rush for 100 and take away goal-line work. 

Injuries 

• Safety Jalen Thompson went down with an ankle injury two plays into the game, while starting center Mason Cole injured his hamstring later on in a 24-20 win over the San Francisco 49ers. Thompson landed on the injured reserve Thursday, while Cole was ruled out of the Week 2 home game against the Washington Football Team, coach Kliff Kingsbury said Friday.
• Kingsbury also said tight end Maxx Williams (ankle) will miss the game at State Farm Stadium.
•  

CORE PLAYS: Logan Thomas, Murray

GPP ONLY: Hopkins, Drake, McLaurin 

Top Stacks: 

ATL/DAL (Don’t overthink this. Stack it)

MINN/INDY

WASH/AZ

CASH Core (FD): Ryan – Zeke – Henry- Adams – Julio – Ceedee -Alie-Cox  

CASH Core (DK):  Ryan – Henry – Zeke – Julio – Corey Davis – Hurst – Jets D 

*ALT Build – If you aren’t a fan of stacking in cash, move from Hurst to Logan Thomas and Julio to Adams on DK

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE: Lamar (FD), Kyler (DK), Logan Thomas (both), Ridley (both), Miles Sanders (both)

Underweight – Adams in GPP, Evans, CMC 

Low(er) owned one-offs: ARob, Aaron Jones, David Johnson, TY Hilton, James Robinson 

**12:52 LATE SWAP UPDATE** 

I am going to David Johnson on a bunch of my main teams with DUKE confirmed OUT.