Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
All roads to fantasy football championships are paved by volume. The foundation of that volume is pace, or how many plays are run in a given game. That can vary widely from team to team and the context of the perspective game. Every week, I'll take a swan dive into the deep end of the pace and play-calling pool to give you the layout on possible game scenarios and the edges they can present.
With only one week of data regarding how these offenses will run, it's important to note the differences and weigh them lightly. As we gain a larger sample with more weeks in the rearview, trends take shape, and we can draw more concrete conclusions. For that reason, the data referenced in these charts are from 2019. The disparities in Week 1 will be highlighted in my breakdowns below.
Let's explore the range of possibilities for each game for this week.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Last week, the Bengals were surprisingly slow on offense, dropping from seventh in neutral script pace in 2019 to 17th. Whether this is a product of a shortened offseason and rookie quarterback, we’ll see. Still, it’s worth noting that currently, the Bengals are not a team that will necessarily push the pace as previously assumed walking into the season. The Bengals neutral script passing rate was also saddening, sitting at 53% compared to last season’s 62%, which ranked sixth. It’s not a shock that the Browns played similarly to the 2019 Vikings, and their pace increased over last season’s snooze fest. The Browns could surprise in play volume if the Bengals get up early, but if Week 1 was a benchmark, their passing rates will stay similar to last season. The Browns were not pass-heavy when trailing like the 2019 Vikings.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Anyone expecting a high flying, fast-moving Jaguars passing attack was probably disappointed with their Week 1 showing. In their first game under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, their passing rate dropped from last season's 58% to 51% in neutral script. Their pace was at a similar crawl in neutral script, ranking 31st compared to 30th last year. Moving forward, the passing rate on this team when trailing will bear watching, especially this week, as they're currently nine-point road dogs. If this team moves slowly and passes less, they'll be a weekly avoid in DFS and concern in all other formats.
The Titans surprised with both their pace and passing rate in Week 1. Tennessee was 10th in neutral script pace last week. Tannehill's 43 pass attempts were a new high since becoming the Titans' starter. The closest he got to that total was 39 attempts once last season when the team was trailing the entire game. The Titans were in neutral or positive game script most of this game. While the Titans won't likely be throwing this much every week, any increase would improve the full season outlooks for A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis and the rest of the pass-catchers here.
New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
The Giants offense was one of the most surprising of the week, ranking fifth in negative game script pace, 12th in neutral and first in positive game script pace. If Jason Garrett pushes the play volume weekly, then wheels up for an increase in volume, helping to alleviate fears about supporting all the skill players on this offense. The Bears decreased their passing rate in negative and neutral scripts, with a 21% decrease when trailing. However, the Bears moved the ball quicker, ranking seventh in neutral scrip pace last week. If Matt Nagy keeps the offense moving, it can help lessen the blow of a lower passing rate.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
This game is going to be among the fastest and most pass-happy contests of the week. Both teams were top-11 in neutral script pace last week and top-seven in negative script pace. With both teams retaining last season’s coordinators, their passing rates were nearly identical to 2019.
Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
These teams moved at a slower pace than anticipated from Pat Shurmur’s 2019 Giants’ squad and the Steelers in 2018 rates. The Broncos were 18th in neutral pace, and the Steelers were right behind them at 19th.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Vikings crawled in Week 1 under Gary Kubiak, ranking 30th in neutral and positive game script pace but flipped the switch and turned into Usain Bolt when trailing. In Week 1, the Vikings ranked fourth in negative game script pace. The Vikings neutral script passing rate jumped off the page, ranking 32nd in the NFL last week. The Vikings negative script passing rate was similarly horrifying at 53%, a 20% drop from 2019.
The Colts, however, were an encouraging team from a pace and passing rate perspective. The Colts were ranked second and third in negative and positive game script pace, so even if they are beating the Vikings this week, they could still roll up the volume. In Philip Rivers’ first game, the Colts neutral script passing rate jumped by 11% compared to last year (63%). This is a welcomed sight for all the fantasy general managers that rostered Parris Campbell, Jack Doyle, T.Y. Hilton, or Nyheim Hines.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Both of these teams were huge disappointments from a pace perspective. The Panthers were expected to be a speedy team under Joe Brady but ranked 16th, 15th and 22nd in negative, neutral and positive game script pace last week. When the Panthers trailed, the passing rate was troubling at only 41%, which was a 30% fall off from last year. As Teddy Bridgewater acclimates to his new surroundings, it will be interesting if any of these factors pull a 180.
In Tom Brady’s first game under Bruce Arians, there were expected speed bumps possibly related to an abbreviated offseason. The team was 29th in neutral script pace and only passed the ball on 39% of their plays in neutral script. The silver lining that alludes to the fact that these could be short-lived was the trailing script passing rate was near identical to 2019 at 76%. Better days are likely ahead for this offense and Brady.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills will tangle with the Giants as the most interesting team of Week 1. The Bills picked up the pace in a big way from last seasons, ranking sixth in neutral script and eighth in positive game script. While the Bills' neutral script passing rates were almost the same as 2019 (58% vs. 57%), their positive game script passing rate was eye-popping. Josh Allen was throwing on 61% of plays, which ranked third on the week versus last year's 42%. If this continues, the Bills passing will be undersold this week versus Miami.
The Dolphins were mirror images of Chan Gailey's 2016 squad, with passing rates in the mid-50s in neutral and trailing environments. Gailey's pace over-promised and under-delivered even in 2016. The Dolphins were 15th, 22nd and 29th in negative, neutral and positive game script last week. Gailey's play volume is hard-capped by his pace and insistence on playing both sides of the coin with passing and rushing.
San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets
Kyle Shanahan’s pace was similar to last season, except that he sped his offense up when the team was leading, as they ranked sixth last week in positive game script pace. The increase in positive pace was married to an increase in passing rate when leading, as the 49ers passed on 67% of their plays when leading Week 1.
The Jets' pace was so monstrously different in Week 1 than anything Adam Gase has concocted in the past. It’s worth watching the game to see if it was him on the sideline. The Jets were third (yes, you read that correctly) in negative and neutral script pace in Week 1. The Jets passing rates also spiked in Week 1, with New York passing 67% and 69% of their snaps in neutral and trailing situations. This week will be the litmus test on whether this was an outlier or a harbinger of things to come.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This matchup could rival the Falcons and Cowboys for most plays run for the week. The Rams were still a relatively fast-paced team last week, ranking ninth and 11th in neutral and positive game script pace. The big departure for them was their passing rate. The Rams ranked 28th (47%) in neutral passing rate. This would be a massive change for Sean McVay and a crippling trend for their pass catchers if it continues. At this juncture, chalk it up to a one-week variance.
While trying not to bury the lead, the Eagles are the major headline in this game. The Eagles went extremely pass-heavy in neutral and positive game script in Week 1. Carson Wentz and company passed on 72% (first) and 70% (third) of plays when the game was close or leading. This could be a product of offensive line injuries and Miles Sanders missing the game. Still, it’s noteworthy for Wentz because even elevated rates of passing, to a lesser degree, push his weekly ceiling to the moon.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
The Lions offense under the same coordinator performed much in the same manner as 2019 with Matthew Stafford under center. The only departures being the negative script pace. The Lions were ranked 26th in negative game script pace in Week 1. The Packers, in their second year under Matt LaFleur, moved quicker and passed more when leading. Green Bay was 13th in positive game script pace, and their passing rate was up 9% from 2019’s rates. This is interesting with the Packers favored here. If the Packers get up in this game, they could keep tossing the rock.
Washington Football Team vs. Arizona Cardinals
The number of plays in this game will leave you double-taking. The Washington Football Team made good on Scott Turner's promise to go lighting fast in Week 1. Turner’s offense ranked 12th, fourth and second in pace in negative, neutral and positive game environments in Week 1. The Cardinals were their usually quick selves outside of positive game environments when they slowed to 20th in pace. Washington can push the Cardinals in this game, and the play volume overall can skyrocket.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
This game will not shock anyone with how fast these teams move. Theses offenses are predicated on explosive plays and not volume. Baltimore operated similarly as 2019 with the small wrinkle of passing more in positive game script and picking up their pace to seventh last week.
The Texans slowed down from last season, ranking 28th in neutral script last week while their passing rate went up 10% from 55 to 65%. The offense also was ranked 8th in pace when trailing last week, which could be pivotal in this week’s game to squeezing every extra attempt out of this offense.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs' passing rate fell some in last week’s game to 58% in neutral script, which is most likely an outlier consider the long track record and continuity of this team. The Chargers are the team that many had questions about walking into Week 1, and they answered many of them. The Chargers will be the team that many will misread again this week, but the play volume will be here against the Chiefs in a game they will likely be trailing for much of. Last week, the Chargers ranked 10th and second in trailing and neutral script pace.
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
These are two teams moving in opposite directions. New England was near the bottom in passing rate and pace in neutral script. Last week, the Patriots ranked 32nd in neutral pace and threw the ball on only 39% of plays in neutral scripts.
The Seahawks finally did it. They finally did what everyone has been clamoring for. They finally let Russ cook. The Seahawks upped their neutral script passing rate by 16% to 69%, and their positive game script passing rate to 71%, which was 29% above last year’s mark. This week will prove whether Week 1 was a flash in the pan, but it was a brilliant one even if it was.
New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This game will be one of the slowest of the week, as both teams ranked 22nd and 26th in total pace. The Raiders did bump their pace up to 16th in neutral script last week, but we’ve seen enough of Jon Gruden’s offense to know what we’re in store for. The Saints are now without their best receiver in Michael Thomas, so their passing rate could tumble from their already depressed 54% in neutral scripts last week. The Saints did pick up the pace in positive game script last week, ranking fourth in positive script, so if they do so again, the rushing volume could support both Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara as viable options.
