Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
If your fantasy football team has survived this far into the season, it likely means that you have made it to championship week. Even now, there are still important decisions that need to be made in your quest for your fantasy football championship, and I’ll try to assist you in the process with this week’s Usage Report.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 16
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Amari Cooper Still Not Getting Enough Snaps
If you’ve held Amari Cooper throughout his Buffalo tenure thinking that things would get better, well, it sadly hasn’t. He’s still not getting enough snaps to be viable. In Week 16, he saw just 54% of the snaps (32), and was outsnapped by Mack Hollins, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. If you’ve had Cooper in your lineup, you should definitely explore some sort of alternative.
Miami Dolphins: Malik Washington Leads Dolphins WRs in Snaps
With Jaylen Waddle out due to a knee injury, we knew Malik Washington would see a big increase in snaps, but it was a bit surprising to see him lead the wide receivers and tight ends in snaps after seeing 87% of the snaps (snaps), which meant he saw more time on the field than both Tyreek Hill and Jonnu Smith. Unfortunately, he did not see as many targets as Hill and Smith, catching all 3 of his catchable targets for 28 yards. Waddle’s status for Week 17 is uncertain, but even if he sits out, I’m not sure if Washington is worth starting unless you’re in a super deep league.
New England Patriots: Antonio Gibson Outsnaps Rhamondre Stevenson
Antonio Gibson saw his highest snap rate of the season, seeing 59% of the snaps (43). He ended up getting 12 touches but was only able to get 36 total yards. You’re not going to be starting Gibson, so the question here is whether we continue to play Rhamondre Stevenson. That answer is, yes — absolutely. Stevenson continues to produce and will continue to get plenty of touches regardless of the opponent. In Week 17, they’re facing a Chargers team that has had a much tougher time defending the run this season.
New York Jets: Even in Meaningless Games, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams Dominate Usage
Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are basically the only three startable Jets outside of Aaron Rodgers, and that continues to be the case even though the games are completely meaningless for the team. The biggest surprise is definitely Hall, who saw 77% of the snaps (53), which led to Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis combining for just 28% of the snaps (20). While you may be wary about playing the Jets’ big three with the remaining games being even more meaningless, I wouldn’t worry about it.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry Sees Highest Snap Rate of the Season
Derrick Henry saw more time on the field than usual after Justice Hill was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a concussion. Henry’s 74% snap rate (46) was a season high. The only other option was Rasheen Ali, who had gotten his feet wet in Week 15 with 8 carries for 32 yards. But even with Hill out of the picture, Ali got just 1 carry for 2 yards. With the race for the AFC North as tight as ever, I would imagine Henry’s workload is likely going to be similar to what we saw in Week 16.
Cincinnati Bengals: Cowboys Game Might Have Been an Anomaly — Tee Higgins Is a Must Play
After a super disappointing game against the Cowboys, Tee Higgins has bounced back with two straight amazing weeks. This past week, he actually out-targeted Ja’Marr Chase and caught all 8 of his catchable targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. If there were question marks surrounding Higgins before, you can go ahead and throw them out the window.
Cleveland Browns: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Doesn’t Help the Fantasy Value of Any Receiver
Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a tough time getting anything going against the Bengals, and it hurt all of his receivers. If you have Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore or even David Njoku on your roster, you have to think twice before starting them in Week 17 against the Dolphins. DTR did suffer a calf injury, so it’ll be interesting to see if Jameis Winston gets another shot or if Bailey Zappe gets an opportunity. If Jameis is back, then you can play them with confidence; otherwise, I would be relentlessly searching for alternatives.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Might Be Panic Time When It Comes to Najee Harris
Najee Harris came off a season-low in snap rate in Week 15 and followed it up with yet another season-low in Week 16 when he saw just 28% of the snaps (17) while Jaylen Warren saw 67% (40). Considering it’s not going to get any easier this week when they face the Chiefs, I would definitely be concerned about starting Harris.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Tank Dell Role Unlikely to Be Filled by Either Xavier Hutchinson or Robert Woods
Tank Dell’s gruesome injury in Week 16 against the Chiefs was excruciating to watch. Nevertheless, we do have to analyze Dell’s absence for fantasy football purposes, and that begins with Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods. They both saw 58% of the snaps (34) and had very little impact in the game. It should be noted that John Metchie III was inactive for the game due to a shoulder injury, and the team also acquired Diontae Johnson after he was waived by the Ravens earlier in the week. Based on what we saw from Metchie prior to Nico Collins’ return from IR, and the fact that Johnson has only been a Texan for two days, I would imagine that Metchie is the best candidate to take over the majority of Dell’s snaps and targets.
Indianapolis Colts: Adonai Mitchell Outsnaps Josh Downs
While Josh Downs might get most of the fantasy love, we saw Adonai Mitchell see 89% of the snaps (55) against the Titans. The problem is that he only caught 1 ball on 1 catchable target for 36 yards. With Alec Pierce potentially coming back from his concussion, Mitchell still isn’t very playable, especially with Anthony Richardson as his QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Be Careful with Tank Bigsby
Tank Bigsby did out-touch Travis Etienne Jr. 13-11, and he did score a touchdown while Etienne did not. But he still only saw 28% of the snaps (19) while Etienne saw 52% (35). His production appears to be very touchdown dependent, and that’s extra risky when you’re playing for one of the worst teams in the league.
Tennessee Titans: Tyjae Spears Officially More Valuable Than Tony Pollard to End the Season
For the second week in a row, Tyjae Spears outsnapped Tony Pollard, and for the second week in a row, he finished with 2 touchdowns. He continues to be outstanding in the passing game, catching 9 passes for 126 yards and a touchdown over these last two games. The Titans are definitely giving Spears an extended look to close out the year. If you have some question marks at your RB2 or your flex, you should definitely take a look at your waiver wire to see if Spears is somehow still there.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Don’t Get Fooled by Audric Estime’s Touchdown
With Jaleel McLaughlin inactive due to a quad injury, Audric Estime got a few more touches than he normally would. He ended his night with 9 rushes for 48 yards and a touchdown. The problem is, McLaughlin is likely going to be back this week, and with McLaughin in, you can’t really guarantee Estime more than 3 touches. Don’t waste a roster spot on Estime and look for other alternatives if necessary.
Kansas City Chiefs: Marquise Brown Makes Debut, Looks Outstanding
Marquise Brown was activated from IR and saw his first action of the season with 27% of the snaps (20). While he was outsnapped by four other Chiefs receivers, he finished with the second-most catches — catching 5 passes on 5 catchable targets for 45 yards. I don’t necessarily think he’s a great play this week against the Steelers, but if anything, he’s going to impact the others in the receiver’s room. DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the two fringe plays on the roster right now, and with Brown being so impactful in his debut, I’m not sure there’s many formats where I would feel comfortable starting them.
Las Vegas Raiders: Aidan O’Connell Loves Getting the Ball to RBs
Since Sincere McCormick is out of the picture, the Raiders went with a 50/50 split between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah Both running backs were impactful, and that’s largely due to Aidan O’Connell’s heavy usage of his RBs in the passing game. They combined for 9 catches to 76 yards, which made them his second-favorite target outside of Brock Bowers In PPR formats, I think the circumstances really put both Mattison and Abdullah in a place where they could be viable flex options if you’re desperate.
Los Angeles Chargers: Gus Edwards Might Be the Only Playable RB in Week 17
Even though Kimani Vidal has seen a larger role leading up to the Thursday night game against the Broncos, it was Gus Edwards who led the running backs in snaps, seeing 46% of the snaps (30), while Vidal only saw 32% (21). The Chargers are also not giving Vidal many touches whenever he is on the field, while Edwards ended up seeing a season-high 15 touches for 71 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns. If anything, the goal line work appears to be locked in to Edwards, and that’s going to keep him relevant through the end of the season. (To be fair, keep an eye on J.K. Dobbins’ status.)
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Brandin Cooks Leads Cowboys WRs in Snaps
The Cowboys are a team that gives six different wide receivers significant playing time throughout the game. It should be noted that in Week 16, Brandin Cooks saw 77% of the snaps (46) to lead the Dallas receivers in snaps. He is also building a solid rapport with backup QB Cooper Rush — catching 3 balls on 3 catchable targets for 48 yards. CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson are still the top two passing targets, but Cooks may be a viable flex in deeper leagues.
New York Giants: Wan’Dale Robinson Getting Plenty of Touches
The Giants went back to Drew Lock in Week 16, and Lock definitely gave his team the full Drew Lock experience, going 22-of-39 for 210 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. He isn’t afraid to sling the football, and that’s going to benefit other Giants receivers who aren’t necessarily named Malik Nabers In this case, Wan’Dale Robinson caught all 7 of his catchable targets for 62 yards. Robinson showed immense potential to start the season but definitely cooled off. He heads into Week 17 as a viable flex target in PPR leagues.
Philadelphia Eagles: Very Little Impact with Kenny Pickett Under Center
Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the Week 16 game against the Commanders early in the first quarter. Throughout the season, we’ve seen Hurts lean on his star players in Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Kenny Pickett getting significant playing time didn’t exactly change much. In fact, there were 48 touches spread out throughout the game and all of them went to Barkley, Brown, Smith, and Kenneth Gainwell. Hurts should be back in the saddle against the Cowboys, and well, it’s business as usual when it comes to who you can play from the Eagles.
Washington Commanders: Olamide Zaccheaus Has Huge Game
Noah Brown’s absence has created a lot of opportunities among the Commanders receivers. At this point, we are seeing significant impact from Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus and Jamison Crowder. The receiver who stood out the most was Zaccheaus, who led the team with 6 catchable targets. He caught 5 of those targets for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s still available in 99% of Yahoo leagues and could be a sneaky add to your starting lineup with a matchup against Atlanta’s 24th-ranked defense DVOA against the pass.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet Isn’t Getting Enough Touches
It’s pretty unlikely you’ve made it this far with Cole Kmet in your lineup, but if you somehow have, you absolutely must find someone else to fill your starting tight end position. While Kmet caught a goal line touchdown against the Lions, he still only got 2 catches on 2 catchable targets for 9 yards. The problem is that almost all of Caleb Williams‘ targets are going to his top three wide receivers in Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs or Bust at the RB Position
There were a lot of questions heading into Week 16 regarding the Lions’ running backs. With David Montgomery likely out for the rest of the season, we knew that Jahmyr Gibbs would get a significant increase in touches. Unfortunately, there’s no other fantasy viable opportunities being created as Craig Reynolds, Sione Vaki and Jermar Jefferson combined for 11 touches, with none of the backups getting more than 5 touches.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson Held Without a Catch
Monday night’s lopsided win against the Saints was arguably the biggest walkover win of the season by any team. Still, it was quite concerning to see that Christian Watson finished the contest without a catch. He got beat up on an end around that led to a knee bruise that limited him throughout the game. It’s going to be extremely hard to trust him for Week 17 considering the Packers are locked into a playoff berth and there’s no urgent need to get Watson back on the field.
Minnesota Vikings: T.J. Hockenson Can’t Find the End Zone
T.J. Hockenson has been a big upgrade to the Vikings tight end position, but he just isn’t a focal point in the red zone. Hockenson has seen just 2 end zone targets since he returned in Week 9. Even the TE2 and TE3 in Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt have each seen 2 end zone targets since Week 9. While Hockenson still gets enough opportunities to be viable in PPR, I would strongly consider my alternatives if I have him in a standard league.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts Can Be Dropped
In Michael Penix Jr.’s first start, we saw him definitely lean on his top two wide receivers in Drake London and Darnell Mooney throughout the game. We also saw that Charlie Woerner still outsnapped former first-rounder Kyle Pitts. Pitts finished the game with just 1 catch on 2 catchable targets for 7 yards. The QB change made absolutely no impact to Pitts’ value, and at this point, you absolutely must drop Pitts for a different tight end if you’ve survived this far.
Carolina Panthers: David Moore Leads Receivers in Snaps
With Xavier Legette inactive, we did not see Adam Thielen see an increase in reps. David Moore was the biggest beneficiary — seeing 90% of the snaps (61) and it led to 2 catches on 3 catchable targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. Thielen continues to be the most impactful Panthers receiver, but considering he only saw 59% of the snaps (40), it’s pretty tough to feel comfortable with him in your starting lineup.
New Orleans Saints: Jordan Mims Leads Saints RBs
Monday night, the Saints offense looked like it was still hanging out in the cafeteria freezer, because virtually no one showed any type of fantasy impact on offense in the absence of Alvin Kamara. It was actually Jordan Mims instead of Kendre Miller who led the Saints running backs. He may have ended with just 32 all-purpose yards, but that also include 5 catches. He’s going to be the main receiving running back for the Saints as long as Kamara is out of the lineup. It’s a stretch, but I can see some potential in using Mims if you’re in a deeper PPR league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White Could Be Doomed for Week 17
With Sunday night’s game-ending fumble that sealed the Tampa Bay loss to the Cowboys, and considering it is his second fumble in as many weeks, I think White’s chances for a productive Week 17 takes a significant hit. White already appeared to lose a lot of his snaps to Bucky Irving and only saw 50% of the snaps (36) Sunday night. He appears to be falling out of head coach Todd Bowles’ favor, and that could lead to Irving get an even bigger share of the touches.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Michael Carter Gets Significant Snaps in Season Debut
Michael Carter saw his first action of 2024 and actually saw the second-most snaps from the running back position at 36% of the snaps (25). He actually showed immediate impact, taking 10 touches for 48 all-purpose yards. This includes 5 catches, which actually led all Cardinals receivers including Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. While Carter makes a compelling add, I’d still be very cautious considering Trey Benson could be back in the lineup against the Rams.
Los Angeles Rams: Rams Now Have 4-Headed Monster at Tight End
Tyler Higbee made his season debut, nearly a full year after he tore his ACL in last year’s Wild Card game against the Lions. While he only saw 27% of the snaps (14), he did finish the game with a game-sealing touchdown in the fourth quarter. In total, four different tight ends took the field for the Rams against the Jets, but Higbee was the only one who saw a target. At this point, none of the four are going to be viable in any fantasy formats, and that includes Higbee, who isn’t likely to see enough snaps to contribute enough.
San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo the Only Playable RB
With Isaac Guerendo inactive for Week 16, there was a thought that both Patrick Taylor Jr. and Ke’Shawn Vaughn could jump in and provide some much-needed production from the running back position. Unfortunately, that didn’t end up being the case as Taylor only got 9 touches for 25 all-purpose yards, while Vaughn failed to even touch the ball. Guerendo is on track to return to the lineup in Monday’s game against the Lions, and frankly, should be the only 49ers running back on anyone’s roster right now.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet Sees Lowest Snap Count, Could Still Be Set Up for a Big Week 17
Zach Charbonnet finished Week 16 seeing just 22% of the snaps (14) due to an elbow issue. Still, Kenneth Walker III is out Thursday against the Bears, and with Charbonnet already practicing in full, we might be in line for another Charbonnet-heavy game.
