Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 14 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals got back both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins this past week, which provided a needed boost to the offense. James Conner now has 14 touchdowns on the season, a new career-high. Chase Edmonds is scheduled to return in Week 14, which puts this backfield into flux, at least a bit. Prior to his injury, Edmonds had at least three receptions in seven of his first eight games.
Las Vegas Raiders
Running back Kenyan Drake suffered a broken ankle and will miss the remainder of the season. Josh Jacobs hauled in all nine of his targets in Week 13 and could see a nice boost in that department moving forward. Jalen Richard is currently on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Peyton Barber had a nice two-week stretch back in Weeks 2-3 and he could see an expanded role.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Buffalo Bills
Zack Moss returned from a one-game absence (healthy scratch in Week 12) to see 10 touches last week, which was the same as Devin Singletary. After coming on strong in recent weeks, Matt Breida had just one carry. It’s becoming increasingly frustrating for fantasy managers to just any of these running backs on a weekly basis.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are coming out of their bye without Christian McCaffrey for the rest of the season. Both Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah have had value in recent weeks so it will be worth closely monitoring how the team deploys these players moving forward.
Denver Broncos
The Javonte Williams breakout game finally happened. Melvin Gordon missed Week 13 and Williams responded in a big way. He topped 100 rushing yards and totaled 178 yards from scrimmage on 29 touches. Gordon returned to practice Wednesday so a committee approach may once again be in play for the Broncos moving forward.
Detroit Lions
Without D’Andre Swift on the field, Jamaal Williams posted season-high marks in carries (17) and rushing yards (71) in Week 13. Swift did not practice Wednesday, so Williams remains a must-start based on volume if Swift is unable to go this week. Jermar Jefferson did see five carries (season-high) this past week so he’s worth a look in deeper formats.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Carlos Hyde outcarried James Robinson 9-8 in Week 13. Both running backs lost a fumble, and Robinson has been dealing with a heel injury for several weeks. Hyde snuck into the end zone this past week and only has value if he does that, or if Robinson misses time.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson was active but did not play in Week 13. He had been dealing with a thigh injury leading up to that game. Sony Michel erupted for season-high marks in carries (24), rushing yards (121), and tied season-high marks in targets (4) and receptions (3). Michel has been a fringe-starter in deeper leagues throughout this season but has likely earned a larger workload moving forward.
New England Patriots
The Patriots dominated the Bills on the ground in a grinding victory Monday night. They deployed their usual backfield of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson who saw 10 and 24 carries respectively. Harris ripped off a long touchdown and left early with a hamstring injury. The Patriots do have a Week 15 bye, which should allow Harris time to heal.
Minnesota Vikings
In place of the injured Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison turned 25 touches into 124 scrimmage yards and a score. The Vikings have a short week and play the Steelers Thursday night; reports Thursday morning are that Cook is likely to give it a shot. He was a limited participant in practice this week and received the first-team reps. It’s not an ideal decision for fantasy managers pushing for the playoffs as Cook could split time with Mattison.
New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram has filled in for Alvin Kamara in recent weeks, but it was reported he tested positive for COVID-19, which places his availability for Week 14 in doubt. However, Kamara was a full participant in practice Wednesday and appears to be on track to play for the first time since Week 9. He gets a great matchup against the Jets.
Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13 was an interesting week for the Eagles. Gardner Minshew was under center in place of the injured Jalen Hurts, and Kenneth Gainwell had one of the best games of his rookie season. Miles Sanders set season-high marks in carries (24) and rushing yards (120) but he left after reinjuring his ankle. Boston Scott missed much of the previous week of practice and only saw three snaps and Jordan Howard missed with an injury. The Eagles have their bye in Week 14.
San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell has at least 22 carries in each of his last three healthy games. However, he is currently in the league’s concussion protocol and his status will need to be monitored in the coming days.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
Another week, another solid outing for Cordarrelle Patterson. His usage in both the running and passing game make him a must-start each week.
Baltimore Ravens
Devonta Freeman has at least 17 touches and 60 scrimmage yards in three consecutive games. He’s the only fantasy-relevant running back on the Ravens.
Chicago Bears
David Montgomery did not practice Wednesday thanks to a variety of minor injuries. Still, he’s been impressive this season. His 21 carries in Week 13 were the second most in a game this year and his targets (9) and receptions (8) were definite season-high marks.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Joe Mixon breakout season continues. He has double-digit carries in every game and has 14 total touchdowns on the season. If there is a slight worry, it’s that his involvement in the passing game has been erratic, but he’s seeing incredible volume and is making the most of it.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns were on bye in Week 13. However, in Week 12, Kareem Hunt returned from a five-game absence to carry the ball just one less time (7) than Nick Chubb (8). Chubb remains one of the best running backs in football, but he needs more than eight carries.
Dallas Cowboys
Over the last three weeks, Ezekiel Elliott has 31 carries and Tony Pollard has 24. Elliott was a full participant at practice Wednesday while Pollard did not practice due to a foot injury.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers enjoyed their bye in Week 13 and will roll out the tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon over the last month of the season.
Houston Texans
This backfield should be avoided at all costs.
Indianapolis Colts
There are no more words to describe Jonathan Taylor at this point. He has 18 touchdowns on the season but, unfortunately, is on bye in Week 14.
Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has provided a nice balance for the Chiefs’ offense since returning from injury. He has 26 carries for 117 yards and a score over his last two games.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler salvaged a tough day (two fumbles) with a touchdown in Week 13. He’s only topped 15 carries in a game twice this season but has 20 total receptions over his last four games.
Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin has at least 12 carries in seven consecutive games and sees meaningful involvement in the passing game. He’s a high-end RB2.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley has looked solid over his last two games but was added to the injury report Wednesday with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on his status and make sure you have Devontae Booker added, if possible.
New York Jets
Tevin Coleman continues to be an adequate fill-in for Michael Carter, who has been on injured reserve. Coleman is currently in the league’s concussion protocol and Carter will miss at least one more game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Najee Harris continues to get it done. He has 20 targets over his last four games, which allows him to be immune to negative gamescripts.
Seattle Seahawks
Rashaad Penny and Adrian Peterson both topped 10 carries in Week 13 but neither was very efficient. Alex Collins had been the RB1 for the Seahawks in recent weeks but missed the last game. For the time being, it’s looking like a backfield to avoid.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette is the RB4 on the season. That feels weird to type. The pass-catching element of his game has been the biggest surprise; he has 28 receptions on 31 targets over the last four weeks.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans enjoyed their bye in Week 13 and fantasy managers anxiously await how they will deploy Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman moving forward.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson is finally looking like the running back fantasy managers were hoping for when they drafted him. Over his last four games, he is averaging just over 23 carries for almost 90 yards and has three scores in that time.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Carolina Panthers
Prior to his bye week, Cam Newton was benched after a horrific outing back in Week 12. He has since been confirmed as the starter for this week, but it doesn’t sound like it would be out of the question for Phillip Walker to get some playing time as well. The matchup against the Falcons is promising but aside from DJ Moore, no other Panther is worth starting right now.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins returned from three game absences to post solid fantasy performances in Week 13. Murray had a quiet passing line of 11 for 15 for 123 yards and two touchdowns (one to Hopkins) but his two rushing scores on the ground boosted his overall finish. Both Murray and Hopkins are must-starts each week when healthy.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields will get the start in Week 14 against the Packers following a two-game absence because of a rib injury. Andy Dalton did not practice Wednesday due to a hand injury. Allen Robinson was limited Wednesday as he works his way back from a hamstring injury. He has not played since Week 9. Cole Kmet has 11 receptions on 18 targets over his last two games, which were both with Dalton.
Detroit Lions
The Lions secured their first win of the season in Week 13. Their offense also posted some strong numbers, especially through the air. Jared Goff nearly topped 300 passing yards and rookie wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had the best game of his young career. The Lions likely won’t repeat that level of offensive output each week, but it was encouraging nonetheless.
Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both in danger of missing Week 14 due to COVID-19 protocols. Fantasy managers will need to keep an eye on this situation in the coming days.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were on the losing end of that Lions’ victory. More importantly, however, is the ankle injury suffered by Adam Thielen. He has already been ruled out for Thursday night against the Steelers, and K.J. Osborn figures to be the immediate beneficiary. Osborn posted a line of 4-47-1 (seven targets) in Week 13.
New York Giants
Evan Engram led the way with 61 receiving yards in Week 13 as Mike Glennon started in place of Daniel Jones. However, if Glennon can’t clear the concussion protocol in time, it sounds like Jake Fromm would make his first career start.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson and Co. looked sharp in Week 13 despite losing to the Eagles. Elijah Moore continues to impress regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Corey Davis has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a core injury.
Philadelphia Eagles
Gardner Minshew started in place of Jalen Hurts and looked the part of a starting NFL quarterback. Tight end Dallas Goedert was the clear beneficiary as he hauled in all six targets for 105 yards and a pair of scores. Hurt remains the starter according to the team but it was an impressive showing for Minshew regardless.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans were on bye in Week 13 and are reportedly getting back wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones practiced Wednesday, which bodes well for this week. A.J. Brown remains on injured reserve.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
Despite only having one touchdown, Kyle Pitts is having a remarkable rookie season for a tight end. He has 89 targets, 49 receptions and 709 receiving yards and currently sits as the TE8. The entire Falcons offense has struggled this season. Russell Gage is a viable starter in PPR formats.
Baltimore Ravens
Rashod Bateman has trended in the wrong direction in recent weeks. Over his last four games, his target total has been 8, 6, 4, 1. He was held without a catch this past week. Lamar Jackson continues to feature both Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews and Jackson hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in a game since Week 9.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs continues to see a high volume of targets each week and has six touchdowns over his last seven games. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be worried about the Week 13 loss to the Patriots in poor weather.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sophomore wideout Tee Higgins has come on strong in recent weeks to the tune of 15 receptions for 252 yards and a pair of scores over his last two games. The Bengals can and will support multiple high-end wide receivers, and Higgins is back inside the top 25 at the position.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns enjoyed their bye in Week 13, which should have afforded Baker Mayfield to heal up a bit more. The passing game has struggled, and Mayfield has gone three straight games without throwing more than one touchdown. Jarvis Landry remains the only viable option in the passing game.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ offense continues to be rich with fantasy production. Amari Cooper played a limited role in Week 13 after missing the previous two but should be good to go moving forward. CeeDee Lamb is the primary option in the passing game and Michael Gallup has benefitted from Cooper’s absence to post a few nice outings.
Denver Broncos
This offense is tough to watch knowing how explosive it could be with an upgrade at the quarterback position. Courtland Sutton has two or fewer receptions in five straight games and Noah Fant continues to be one of the bigger disappointments at the tight end position.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Houston Texans
For much of the season, Brandin Cooks was the only fantasy-relevant option for the Texans. Now, even Cooks has been disappointing with three or fewer receptions in three consecutive games.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman continues to quietly impress. He hasn’t scored since Week 9 and is in the shadow of teammate Jonathan Taylor, but he is the WR14 on the season and has topped 50 receiving yards in 10 games this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
When your top receivers over the last two weeks are Tavon Austin and Laquon Treadwell, there’s a problem.
Kansas City Chiefs
It was a disappointing Week 13 for both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, as the duo combined for just five receptions for 49 yards. Still, both remain must-starts.
Las Vegas Raiders
Hunter Renfrow has a touchdown or 100 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s also shattered his season-best marks in targets, receptions, and yards.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is averaging over 11 targets, 8 receptions, 113 yards and almost a full touchdown per game this season.
Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle is outscoring Ja’Marr Chase over their last seven games and has at least eight receptions in four of his last five games.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones attempted just three passes in Week 13, but it was enough to help the Patriots defeat the Bills. For obvious reasons, don’t expect that to happen each week. However, don’t put anything past Bill Belichick. The Patriots are on bye this week.
New Orleans Saints
Despite dealing with a finger injury, Taysom Hill will be back under center this week. He threw four interceptions in Week 13 but offset them with 101 rushing yards. He’s a fine streaming option in a great matchup against the Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger appears to be in his final season as retirement reports came out last week regarding the veteran signal caller. He’s played well in recent weeks and Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth have all been varying degrees of productive. Johnson has at least 11 targets in four straight games, Claypool has topped 50 yards in three straight and Freiermuth has five scores in his last six games.
San Francisco 49ers
After missing Week 13, Deebo Samuel could potentially play this week. Brandon Aiyuk struggled without Samuel on the field but George Kittle looks to be his dominant self once again. Kittle had 181 yards this past week and has five scores in as many games.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson looked better this past week and Tyler Lockett continues to outproduce DK Metcalf. Metcalf hasn’t topped 11 fantasy points in four weeks whereas Lockett has at least 12 fantasy points in three straight.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antonio Brown has been suspended for three games, but Tom Brady & Co. keep clicking on all cylinders. Chris Godwin posted a massive line of 15-143 on 17 targets in Week 13 and both he and Mike Evans are top-10 wide receivers.
Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin was held to his worst game of the season and Logan Thomas is out for the year with a knee injury. Still, the Washington Football Team continues to find ways to win.
