MSG Week 5 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 5.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

AZ -6.5. O/U: 47.5
AZ: 27.5 | NYJ: 20

Pace and playcalling 

The public is pounding the Cards, but the sharp money is all flowing to the Jets as a home dog getting a TD, despite losing their games by an average of 16.5 PPG. Bettors love trends, and the Cards are 9-19 ATS when traveling east for a 1 p.m. game. Looking back 10 years, that trend (like most) has been fool’s gold, with West Coast teams covering the spread 55.6% of the time (per teamrankings.com). 

The Jets have played the fewest snaps with a lead, so other than the first part of the game, they have been playing from behind. They have run a total of eight snaps with a lead, ranking third in overall pace. That puts this as the fastest-paced game, with both teams top-five overall. That is where the excitement ends, with both teams falling in the fast-but-inefficient grid, with the Jets rankings 32nd (28th in DVOA) and the Cardinals 23rd (25th in DVOA) in yards per play.

These teams are tied for the most penalties, averaging 8.0 per game.

Cardinals

Kyler Murray continues to lead Lamar Jackson in QB rushing yards per game, averaging 8-64-1. To put that in perspective, Mark Ingram is averaging 8.5 attempts for 37 yards and 0.5 TDs. So despite throwing for a putrid 4.1 YPA last week in Carolina (5.5 ANY/A, 30th), he still finished as the QB8, his fourth top-10 finish on the year. The Jets have only faced one rushing QB (Josh Allen in Week 1) and gave up 14-57-1. Other than Allen, they have had a soft QB schedule, with Jimmy Garoppolo leaving the game after carving them up (14-16 for 131 yards and 2 TDs).

Kenyan Drake is essentially Jordan Howard at this point. I know that’s harsh, but he is averaging 1.2 targets a game (Howard, 1.0), something we have discussed for two weeks here after dismissing it as gamescript-related issues after the first two games. Chase Edmonds has 13 receptions on 17 targets, playing about 35% of snaps. Drake was banged up last week, which could lead to more playing time to the more talented Edmonds. Jets keep getting beat up by RBs (tied for the eighth-most FP allowed) thanks to their terrible offense, but it is still the “strength” of this D, for lack of a better term (seventh in rush DVOA), they are second in adjusted line yards allowed and 10th in RB yards allowed (4.57), which is one of the odder splits I have seen after looking at this metric for years. One thing that has to be at the center is tackling, with the Jets leading the league in missed tackles. 

Arizona has only used four-WR sets on 16% of plays this season after a lead leading 31% in 2019. This follows the trend that started at the end of last season, when they used four-WR sets on 20% of plays. That has not stopped them from targeting their WRs at a league high 70.4%. DeAndre Hopkins is a usage monster, one of four players seeing over 30% of team targets (33.75%). He is leading the league in receptions, but 92nd in average target distance (7.0 yards). Nuk has arguably the best individual matchup of the slate against Blessuan Austin and a struggling Peirre Desir, who has allowed over 3.0 fantasy points per target in coverage. Jets are collectively allowing a 72.09% completion rate against, which has Nuk coming in the early projections as the highest-owned WR on the slate. A fade won’t be fun, with his usage rate and this defense we are going to need a big lead and him to stay out of the end zone to be happy. He is averaging 11.5 targets a game with an 84% catch rate. The Jets are unable to stop a bunch of average WRs, allowing the 10th-most FP despite the eighth-fewest attempts allowed and one of the softest scheduled since being demolished by the Bills wideouts in Week 1. You have to project Hopkins for 8 catches and 80 yards as a floor (he’s had at least 7 catches in all four games, averaging 99 yards), which we can live with on the teams we fade. I will put him on one of my three-max DK rosters to match the field — if he pops for 10-150-2 (very much in the range of outcomes), I don’t want to be looking up at 30% of the field with a 39-DK-point WR. For MME, I would lock him in at 30% as well at a minimum on DK, fading high-priced/volume WRs on FD is a little easier as that 8-80-0 game is only 12 FP or 1.37x of his $8.7k price tag. 

Update: Blessuan Austin missed practice Wednesday before practicing on a limited basis Thursday and Friday. He’s likely to play Sunday but could be at less than full strength. As though Hopkins needs the help.

Andy Isabella kept a 46% snap share with Christian Kirk back last week, which along with Larry Fitzgerald makes the non-Nuk Cardinals WRs a crowded situation. Kirk is the guy to focus on, running 80% of his routes on the right side, which will put him in front of Pierre Desir. Desir has allowed receptions on 12 of the 14 targets into his coverage for 210 yards and 3 TDs, which is 3.70 FP per target. Again, the Jets have not played anyone since week one which makes those numbers even worse. He hasn’t had the usage we want for cash, but he is in the GPP pool, primarily stacked with Kyler.

Injuries 

• Safety Budda Baker is back this week with some sort of contraption to protect his hand. Jalen Thompson (ankle) is eligible to return to practice from IR but is on the questionable side of things along with S Chris Banjo (hamstring). Arizona started Curtis Riley and Deionte Thompson last week in CAR, which was one of the reasons I liked the CAR offense. 
• Outside linebacker Devon Kennard (calf) also sat out Wednesday. CB Dre Kirkpatrick, who was placed in the concussion protocol Thursday and did not practice Friday as a result — he played 31 defensive snaps Sunday — was a limited participant Wednesday with a calf injury.

Jets

The Jets named Joe Flacco the starter for Sunday’s game against the Cardinals in the wake of starter Sam Darnold‘s right shoulder injury, which kept him out of practice Wednesday.

Jamison Crowder (77% slot rate) is one of four WR with a target share of at least 30% (in games active) this season and is the most (only) viable Jets player to consider on a main lineup. He hauled in 14 of 23 targets for 219 yards and a TD from Darnold, and there is no reason to think the Jets/Flacco would not use him as the WR1. He has only played two games (hamstring) but practiced in full Wednesday, which is a great sign he is at full strength. Like I highlighted last week for Robby Anderson and Mike Davis, short/intermediate routes are the way to hammer this Arizona defense (45% of their fantasy points allowed from the slot).

Source: Sharp Football Stats 

Jeff Smith (7-81-0 on 9 targets) came up from the practice squad last week to play opposite Chris Hogan for 95% of snaps. We will need Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman to be out again to consider Smith, but it’s not often you find a minimum-priced $3k WR who could see 100% of snaps and 7-9 targets. Mims is eligible to come off injured reserve this week, so monitor his weekly status. If both Mims and Perriman remain sidelined, Smith is a deep dig WR5 option.

Chris Hogan is dealing with both ribs and knee injuries. This situation needs more time for clarity. 

The Jets could get back Le’Veon Bell after missing the past three weeks with a hamstring injury. Frank Gore has averaged 17 touches per game, which is hard to find at $5.1k (DK). Darnold threw to his RB on 17.6% of pass plays, which you would assume gets a bump with Bell taking over for the Dinosaur. Arizona has allowed 3 TDs to RBs via the pass. 

CORE PLAYS: DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray, Jamison Crowder (better on DK), Arizona DST (they were bad last week, but NYJ is allowing the third-most FP to DST and now it’s Flacco time), 

GPP ONLY: Christian Kirk, Kenyan Drake (MME), Dan Arnold (MME) 

CAR +2.5. O/U:54.5
CAR: N/A | ATL: N/A

Pace and playcalling 

Atlanta offered a strange game plan Monday against Green Bay, one that saw them run 13 of the first 24 plays despite falling behind from the opening gun. They ended up back up to their season average of 63%, but we would prefer to run more than we have seen in recent past (53% pass rate when up by at least 7, 55% up by at least 3). When down at least 7, they crank it up to a 69% pass rate, but that is down from 75% last season, which correlates with the trend. 

Atlanta was playing very fast, which we love, averaging 27.18 seconds per play in neutral situations (fourth) and playing even faster when down. Atlanta also showed us last week (while down) that they want to slow it down and run more. They have only passed on 59.02% of plays over their last three games (52% in neutral gamescript), which is way down from the 68% in 2019 and very telling considering they lost all three. To compound that, teams love to attack Carolina with their RBs.

Carolina is playing slower this season (22nd), slowing to 31.7 seconds per play with a lead (25th). Panthers pass 70% when down, and 53% when in the lead so our preference is for ATL to get up and get Teddy Bridgewater and Co. passing at a quicker pace. Atlanta is allowing the sixth-most plays per game as a result of their fast pace and 39% third-down conversion rate. 

Carolina is running 54% of plays with three WRs on the field, down from 68% in 2019. TE Chris Manhertz played a season-high 77% of snaps last week, with Ian Thomas staying in the same range as previous weeks. That took all the WRs across the board down about 15%. It was a home win, so it’s not going to be a weekly thing, but Manhertz was already playing about 50%. 

These defenses have allowed a combined 60 PPG on average this season, with the offenses averaging a combined 50. Both the public and the money has been backing the OVER at a steady rate since it opened at 52.5. 

Like I tweeted last week, the Packers  looked like they were practicing a 7-7 drill against ATL, with Aaron Rodgers standing in the pocket and throwing to wide open players. What makes it worse for this pass D is they have been good against the run (seventh in adjusted line yards allowed), which forces opponents into the seventh-highest pass rate. Opponents have posted the fifth-highest passing yards percentage allowed, despite the Dirty Birds being 0-4. I can’t say I have ever seen an opponent pass rate that high against a winless team. I suppose blowing fourth quarter leads is a factor, but it is also the path of least resistance for opposing offenses (8.1 YPA allowed with a 72% competition rate against). 

Panthers

Teddy Bridgewater was an offseason QB2 target for me in best ball, so it is nice to see him become more acclimated in this new Carolina offensive scheme. The patience level of the typical fantasy player is comical, calling him a bust after three games, two against the Buccaneers and Chargers, while losing the centerpiece of their offense. He hit 27 fantasy points last week, but a lot of that was from 30 rush yards and a rush TD. I am throwing that out in terms of future projections, instead I am looking at his accuracy and what it means for his pass catchers. Bridgewater is first in catchable pass rate at 85%, which is the polar opposite of what Carolina experienced last year with Kyle Allen. 

Atlanta is as friendly as a matchup you can get, with them leading the more publicized Seattle and Dallas defenses. They have allowed an eye-popping 35 fantasy points per game to QBs on DK this season after letting Aaron Rodgers post 327 and 4 TDs (without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard). They even let Nick Foles and the Bears look good, which is quite a feat. Foles put up 188 and 3 TDs on just 29 attempts after taking over for Mitchell Trubisky, who left with 128-1 and 45 rush yards. This offense should have a ton of success with all their crossing patterns and misdirection. 

Bridgewater is projected to be around 6% or less on both sites, making him a top QB punt on the slate. Carolina has been surprisingly good in pass protection, ranking first or second in pressure rate allowed, depending on the source. When given protection, Teddy is one of the most efficient passers, completing over 81% (adjusted). Atlanta is 26th in adjusted sack rate. 

Mike Davis is showing why the analytics community are not fans of giving RBs big/long-term deals. No, he has not been as good as Christian McCaffrey, but he also doesn’t cost $64 million ($30 million at signing). Davis has back-to-back games of at least 22 fantasy points on DK, catching 7 passes per game as a starter. Thirteen receptions in the last two show he is script-proof, with Carolina winning both games. He is also giving us 14 carries a game and a whopping seven red-zone touches in each of his last two games. Atlanta allows the most TDs per game on a league-leading 4.5 RZ attempts per game. In comparison, San Francisco is first with 1 red-zone attempt per game allowed. Again, the Falcons has been solid against the run, but have continued their incompetence at stopping RB passes in Dan Quinn’s system (13-135-1 to GB RBs last week through the air). Unlike GB, Davis could get 100% of RB toches with Reggie Bonnafon on IR. Trenton Cannon has been inactive the last two games and is more of a special teams guy, and Pete Guerrerio, an undrafted free agent from Monmouth, was signed to the practice squad last week. That’s it in the RB room, which means wheels up on Davis in a dream matchup for his skill set. 

One of the more enjoyable things about this article is staying ahead of the public. We have been discussing Robby Anderson and Mike Davis since training camp. Last week I broke down Anderson’s route chart and said he was the play while everyone flocked to chalky D.J. Moore. It played out exactly as predicted, with Anderson running short to intermediate routes across the middle of the field, while Moore stayed outside and ran lower-efficiency, higher-aDOT routes. Anderson is your WR5 on the slate at 19.7 fantasy points per game, yet remains a relative value as the 18th-most expensive, less than Moore yet again. He is a No. 1 WR priced as a No. 2 — don’t overthink this one. 

As you can see by combining Anderson’s route chart from last week with the Atlanta defense and Bridgewater’s heat map (Sharp Football), Anderson is in another smash spot. 

Moore should be the contrarian player, but early DFS ownership projections in Kyle Murray’s model have Moore at 15% and Anderson at 10%. I think that will be flipped by kickoff, which is what Saber Sim’s ownership projections have (Anderson at 17%, Moore at 12%). 20% is the level I start considering a player for ownership, so I’m not too worried about it either way. 

The issue with Moore is target share, I don’t play WRs under a 20% target share unless they are ultra-value/minimum price. Moore has seen just 12.7% of the team’s targets over his last two games, his 10 targets are just two more than Curtis Samuel and three more than Ian Thomas over that span. I still like Moore in this spot on Bridgewater stacks, but behind Davis and Anderson. The fact that Samuel and Thomas are still in the mix is another reason to like the quarterback, as the Falcons just made Robert Tonyan famous with their TE coverage. Thomas should build on his 5-target game from last week (Atlanta has allowed 27.1 fantasy points per game to TEs), but is only someone to consider in a Milly Maker or large-field GPP. 

Injuries

• ATL S Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen may return after being limited in Friday’s practice, as will rookie cornerback A.J. Terrell. Like the chart shows, Anderson is lining up all over the place, so I am not worried about these guys. Terrell allowed 2.5 FP in coverage in his two starts.

Falcons

Matt Ryan looked like a chicken with his head cut off in GB, which he seems to do at least once or twice a season. He has only averaged 265 passing yards per game in his last three weeks to go along with just 2 TD passes in two games. In the era of the “Super QB” (Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray), these pocket passers need 350-plus yards and 3 TDs to hang, as we know the rushing production is the cheat code. If Ryan is without Julio Jones, that monster ceiling game seems to be capped. With all the production flowing to the RBs vs. CAR, they have allowed the fourth-fewest FP to QBs.

Dan Quinn loves Todd Gurley, especially in the red zone (19 RZ touches, most in the NFL). Carolina is seventh in YPA allowed through the air, but is giving up 32.6 FPPG to RBs (last) as a result of 7 rush TDs allowed, a trend they started in 2019 (11 rush TDs in their last five games in 2019). That is 18 rush TDs in nine games. Gurley has made his way with volume but has been bad otherwise (51st in RB yards per touch). He only sees 2 targets per game, with Ito Smith and Brian Hill splitting the rest (Atlanta’s 17% target rate to RBs ranks 22nd). That makes him extremely TD-dependent, but this is Carolina and at home, so if you are ever going to chase scores this would be the spot. 

Calvin Ridley has an ongoing ankle issue, playing a season-low 64% of snaps Monday night. He went through Friday’s practice in a limited fashion and looks to be on track to play. I can see them limiting snaps again, which would be terrible in cash games. I am undecided on Ridley at this point — with Jones out he seems like a no-brainer in terms of usage, but knowing he is not 100% coming in coupled with his price and so many great WR options has him outside the cash core. Check in on Sunday to see if I have changed my mind, but for now he is just a runback on a Bridgewater stack. He put up 13-219-2 in two games against Carolina last year, but this is a new-look secondary for the most part. They are still not very good, but to look at “Football BvP” without the context of players and scheme is misleading (like real BvP). 

The “other” ATL WRs could have a big impact on this slate. Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus should get full-time snaps with ATL sticking to mostly three-WR sets last week and Jones playing just 21% of snaps. Zaccheaus led the team in snaps and targets, hauling in 8-of-9 for 86 yards. Due to the fact that he played the Monday game, his price was already set for this slate at minimum price, making him the premier punt WR3 to squeeze in expensive assets into a stack or cash game LU. I actually like him just as much or more if Ridley is active, as I am not sure he can carry a team as the X or WR1. Eight of his nine targets came to the short middle and short right side of the field, which aligns perfectly with where Carolina has been hurt by opposing QBs

Gage has also been banged up, seeing his snaps fluctuate (83%-19%-63%) over his last three. Carolina has allowed more targets and yards to the slot per our Advanced DvP tool, though it is important to note almost all of it is being fueled by Keenan Allen’s 13-reception game on 19 targets. Other than Allen, they have not allowed much production to slot WRs. 

Hayden Hurst makes a lot of sense with Jones OUT, already seeing 16.4% of Ryan’s targets. His red-zone usage is almost non-existent, seeing one RZ target in four games that saw Ryan attempt 23. The thing we need with TEs not named Travis Kelce or George Kittle are TDs, so if Hurst is being left out of the mix by the goal-line, he is not someone we want to keep chasing. Carolina has held Darren Waller (6-45-0) and Hunter Henry (5-50-0) in check, so I prefer the WRs to connect with Ryan.

CORE PLAYS: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Teddy Bridgewater

GPP ONLY: Calvin Ridley (check Sunday morning’s update to see if he gets bumped into CORE/CASH), D.J. Moore, Matt Ryan (MME), Russell Gage (MME) 

CIN +13.5. O/U:51.5
CIN: 19 | BAL: 32.5

Pace and playcalling 

Cincinnati has played 78 snaps with a lead and logically shifted to a lower pass rate and slower pace (55% pass rate) in those instances. But with Baltimore a 2-TD favorite, that should not be an issue, which means we will see the team that moves at the second-fastest pace when down by at least 7, taking just 18.49 seconds between plays and passes at 76%. 

Baltimore has only averaged 58 plays per game (30th), while allowing the ninth-most. Cincinnati is running a ton of plays (74) while also allowing a high play volume (fifth-most). We hope Cincinnati brings Baltimore up, and not the vice versa if we are stacking this. 

Baltimore moves very slowly, 30th in neutral and 31st overall. They need a lead to stay in their run-heavy scheme, as we have seen them struggle in hurry-up or comeback mode. 

Baltimore has been lights out against teams that are not reigning Super Bowl champs. They have allowed Houston, Cleveland and Washington just 13.5 PPG, while being slapped around by Patrick Mahomes for 34 points. 

The same can be said for the offense, posting 30-plus points in each of their three wins and only 20 in the loss to KC. Dating back to last season, they have scored 30-plus in 11 of their last 17 games, with the six unders coming against Pittsburgh (twice), Kansas City (twice), Buffalo and San Fracnisco (notice a trend?). Over those 15 games, they have averaged 23 PPG against those four strong defenses, 34 against everyone else. 

Bengals

We knew Joe Burrow was about to ball out, so no surprise to see him post three straight 300-yard games, the first time in NFL history a rookie has done that. If you watched him at LSU last year and your takeaway was anything other than he was going to be a big-time NFL QB, you should reevaluate your process. 

Burrow is averaging 44.2 pass attempts per game (second-most), which is going to put him in the mix as a viable DFS option nearly every week. This week isn’t an optimal matchup, but the script should set up well again as a double-digit underdog. In addition, the Ravens rush D has been their strength this season, and their pass D vulnerable, which was the opposite we saw last year. Baltimore has allowed an average of 324 pass yards over their last three, one of which was against Dwayne Haskins. One issue is the pass rush, which is in the bottom-two in pressure rate and bottom-nine in adjusted sack rate. Last note on the rookie: He is first (or last, depending on your perspective) in expected points. Meaning he has left the most fantasy points “on the field,” a signal for future regression. I will be stacking him up in some low-dollar qualifiers as he should be 1%-2% owned. 

Joe Mixon went bonkers last week, racking up 181 total yards and 3 TDs to break the slate. He played more snaps and saw more passing-down work, getting a season-high 6 targets in addition to the 25 rush attempts, moving to third in opportunity share and sixth in WOPR. Mixon was questionable coming in, which we found out meant nothing — just a reminder that his questionable tag this week is likely meaningless as well. Unless this game goes the way of the Bengals, it is hard to see him coming anywhere close to that ceiling game here. Don’t chase last week, we missed it, it’s over. 

Tyler Boyd is a tough one for me this week. On one hand I am a huge Boyd stan, but this week he faces one of my other favorites in Ravens primary slot corner Marlon Humphrey. Still, we have to address the Ravens getting lit up by slot WRs, even if some of those routes were not directly against Humphrey. Ravens have allowed 6.8 catches for 84.8 yards to slot WRs per game, which is the fourth-most. Boyd has averaged 8 receptions in his last three games on 10 targets. 

A.J. Green has a meager 11% target share in his last two games. A big (literally) reason for the decline in usage is Tee Higgins. Higgins has out-targeted Green 16-11 in his last two games as the two outside WRs. They have low-key interesting matchups on the outside after Anthony Averett took over at RCB last week for Jimmy Smith. Smith has been limited in practice this week and is supposed to play, but it appears the Ravens are happy to roll with Averett despite Washington targeting him 14 times last week for 13 catches. It must be injury related, since Smith has been great in coverage this season once again. 

Injuries 

• CB Mackensie Alexander (hamstring), RB Joe Mixon (shin). Alexander sat out Friday, after being limited Wednesday/Thursday, normally a sign the player will sit out

Ravens

Lamar Jackson’s star was already bright last year, but his games with Cincinnati pushed it into another solar system. He rushed for 19-152-1 and 7-65-1 in their two meetings, averaging 33.53 fantasy points per game on DK. The matchup is good once again — Cincinnati let a slightly less athletic QB named Carson Wentz QB run for 9-65-1 in Week 3 and then allowed Gardner Minshew 350-2 through the air last week. Jackson has been in the same bucket for me every week, a great (but expensive) GPP-only option. He was head and shoulders above the field last year, but in this year of the super QB, he is one of a group of six (Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson) who can all pass for 300-plus and run for 50 and a TD). 

Cincinnati is seventh in adjusted line yards allowed (4.93), so a Ravens RB or two is going to do some work, but that doesn’t help is in DFS, as a three-way RBBC is not the answer. Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have produced just two individual games with 10 carries among them (and both of those were exactly 10). 

Mark Andrews got us the two TDs as predicted last week, but it came on only 3 targets, so I am not taking a victory lap. Sometimes you just get lucky. That is two of three games with three or fewer targets, which is a major red flag for me at his price point. I have no issue with him stacked up with Jackson in GPPs (6-53-2 and 6-99-0 against Cincinnati in 2019), though. I actually love that stack. But it’s worth noting that he is not in the Kittle/Kelce tier. 

Marquise Brown is in the same boat as Andrews, getting a high usage rate, but in a low-volume passing offense (24.5 pass attempts per game). He is getting all the air yards/deep targets, he just has no goal-line work, yet to see one target inside the 20. Miles Boykin and Willie Snead are next in terms of targets and snaps, but you can’t use them in anything outside of a showdown slate. 

Injuries 

• Lamar Jackson (knee/illness), TE Nick Boyle (thigh), CB Marcus Peters (thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (knee), DT Broderick Washington (illness), WR Marquise Brown (knee), DB Anthony Levine Sr. (abdomen), WR Chris Moore (thigh/finger), OT Ronnie Stanley (shoulder/hip), DT Justin Madubuike (knee), DE Derek Wolfe (elbow), TE Mark Andrews (thigh) 
• Wolfe is the only one looking doubtful, but it is something to note that both veteran CBs were banged up this week. 

CORE PLAYS: N/A 

GPP ONLY (In order of my own exposure): Lamar Jackson (naked), Jackson/Marquise Brown stack, Jackson/Mark Andrews stack, Joe Burrow/Tyler Boyd/Tee Higgins stack

JAX +6. O/U:54.5
JAX: 23.5 | HOU: 30.5

Pace and playcalling 

This game sets up well for us and should be on the Sunday morning top stacks list. The Jaguars would like to play slow (31.68 seconds per play), but they crank it all the way up to 26.54 seconds per play when down (seventh-fastest). Jacksonville has an underrated offense (sixth in DVOA), and an overrated defense (32nd in DVOA), which is a great combo for a shootout. Two of their four games have combined for 58 points or more after last week’s 25-33 loss in Cincinnati. 

With Bill O’Brien fired, we don’t know that Houston will play at the same pace or pass/run ratio. Romeo Crennel takes over. He will likely want to establish the run like most ol’ ball coaches, so don’t expect a revolutionary new offense or for them to turn into an ultra-aggressive offense. 

Jaguars

Houston has been so bad against the run, allowing over 5.0 adjusted yards per carry (5.36 to RBs), that QBs haven’t done much (18 fantasy points per game allowed). Gardner Minshew has had three top-12 finishes due to passing over 40 times in each of his last three games. Minshew struggled with Houston last year — that, plus my love of James Robinson, has me pretty low on the second-year signal caller. That said, I will absolutely have some Minshew stacks with D.J. Chark in tournaments where I submit 150 lineups. 

James Robinson failed to reach the end zone last week, so he left us a little disappointed. He did put up 107 total yards and caught four balls; it just wasn’t the blow-up I predicted (right game, wrong back). The one issue is only 4 red-zone touches in his last three games, getting shut out last week on five Jacksonville red-zone plays. Robinson’s 161 receiving yards through four weeks is second among all RBs, helping him post 120, 129 and 107 total yards in his last three. Chris Thompson did not receive a carry or target last week in a script that was made for him, telling us this is JRob’s job in all scripts moving forward. Houston has allowed 35 fantasy points per gmae to backs this year after getting ripped apart by Dalvin Cook. With Robinson moving into fourth in overall opportunity share after no other Jacksonville back touched the ball last week, he is a top-three back on the slate. 

D.J. Chark is back. After getting healthy by sitting out Week 3, Chark came back to get a season-high 9 targets (9-95-2). He and Minshew have been money in the bank, connecting on 15 of 16 targets this season for a perfect 158.3 QB rating (first). Minnesota WRs also tore apart this Houston D last week, with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson going over 100 yards.

Minshew has a nice stable of receivers now with second-round pick Laviska Shenault emerging. Shenault also went off last week, catching 5-86-0. Unfortunately, he is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been limited all week. If he was unable to go, Keelan Cole and Chris Conley will get more usage, but for me it is Robinson, Chark and a Minshew/Chark stack.

Texans

Deshaun Watson gets a great matchup against a Jaguars team ranked 32nd in DVOA and dealing with a ton of injuries. When writing this Thursday, it looks like the Jags may be without a few significant players on defense:

• CB CJ Henderson (shoulder)
• FS Jarrod Wilson (hamstring)
• LB Myles Jack (ankle)
• CB D.J. Hayden

Regardless, I currently have a Watson/Will Fuller/James Robinson stack on one of my three-max teams. I may mix in some Brandin Cooks, who was shut out as the chalk last week. 

The injury situation we need to know is Jordan Akins, who has been dealing a concussion and an ankle injury. If he can’t go, we may get a value TE in the mix with Darren Fells. Watson targets his TEs at a 20% rate, which would throw Fells into the mix. 

CORE PLAYS: James Robinson, Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson

GPP ONLY: D.J. Chark (I will update this Saturday or Sunday morning after we get more injury news.)

LV +12.5. O/U:55.5
LV: N/A | KC: N/A

Raiders

Josh Jacobs started the season with a monster game in Carolina but hasn’t done anything else since, especially when you factor in his price over that span. Two factors are at play here: For one, the OL is only 22nd in adjusted line yards gained. Still, we know Jon Gruden will try to control the ball and run Jacobs as much as he can against this Kansas City rush D (25th in adjusted line yards allowed). The reasons we can consider him here on DK is price, with it all the way down to $6.3k. The other factor is the increased passing usage, Jacobs is up to 4.2 targets per game from 2.2 in 2019. Last year in these matchups, he only played about 56% of snaps without receiving a single target in either game, yet still racked up 203 yards on 29 carries. The increased passing-down work plus the red-zone usage (3.4 opportunities per game) has his WOPR all the way up to third from 22nd. 

Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have been getting fed with rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards OUT. Renfrow has posted 6-84-1 and 5-57-0 as one of the last healthy WRs on the roster. The Chiefs have been great against opposing pass offenses and are always tough on the Raiders in KC, but both of these guys are in line for a big workload with good script as double-digit underdogs. Edwards is confirmed out for this game, while Ruggs is officially a game-time decision. Even if Ruggs plays, Renfrow is one of the better WR punts on FanDuel at $5.1K.

Waller’s role is also locked in, leading all leads all tight ends in team target share (29.2%) and RZ target share (30.4%). He is a stud. Not sure what else you can say about him, ranking behind only the two marquee players at the position, George Kittle and Travis Kelce. If script goes like most think it will, he will likely finish with 10-plus targets and another top-five TE finish. 

Chiefs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be the most popular RB on the slate, and honestly, I don’t care. I have yet to make a lineup without him against a Vegas rush D that has allowed the most FP to the position already and now has to go into KC as a 13-point underdog. They have allowed backs 5.35 YPC this season and nearly 8 RB catches per game. That adds up to over 180 total yards per game, getting lit up in every week by the opposing RB. He is up to ninth in opportunity share and fifth in WOPR, in case you thought he was going to be used as a true RB1 (21.3 touches per game at 0.70 FP per touch). He has been a bit unlucky with his TD rate, which is why he is popping on our Expected Fantasy Points tool. CEH is -22.5 behind his expected fantasy points, with TD regression being the main cause (4.2x rush TD). 

With so much exposure to CEH, you may think I’m off Patrick Mahomes. Well, you would be wrong. I also have a Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman stack and a Mahomes/Hill/Travis Kelce stack in one or more high-dollar GPPs as a hedge to all my CEH exposure. In addition, I have a Mahomes/CEH stack, where the thought is buying all the KC TDs. They could also connect for a passing TD, with CEH seeing just under 5 targets per game. 

Travis Kelce trails only Waller in target share (23%), averaging 6 receptions and 74.25 yards per game. Kelce loves seeing the Silver and Black, posting 5-90-0, 7-107-1, 5-62-0, and 12-168-2 since Mahomes took over for Alex Smith. 

CORE PLAYS: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Hunter Renfrow, Mecole Hardman, Josh Jacobs (better on DK)

GPP ONLY: Sammy Watkins (stack KC with multiple combos if you multi-enter)

LAR -8.5. O/U:45.5
LAR: 27.5 | WAS: 17

Rams

Cam Akers is back, which makes this a three-way RBBC I am not interested in, despite this being a good, run-funnel matchup (Washington third in pass DVOA, 18th in rush). This is not the same Rams team we have grown accustomed to, with Sean McVay managing Jared Goff with one of the league’s highest rush rates. 

Chase Young is back, which along with the rest of this defensive line makes a formidable opponent for a QB like Goff who has struggled under pressure. Again, McVay is treating Goff like a Kirk Cousins, rushing at the third-highest rate. As of now, I have not put any Rams player on a three-max, nor any GPP team after building about 10 lineups. 

Football Team

Kyle Allen takes over for Dwayne Haskins right after Haskins threw for 314 yards and targeted Terry McLaurin 14 times. We have to assume the passing attack will still go through F1, but it is a riskier play with Allen taking over, knowing how horribly inaccurate he was last year in Carolina. In addition to that, Washington faces an extreme run-funnel D, with the Rams seventh against the pass and 28th against the run. The issue will be the script and what happens if Washington can’t run heavy, Still, that is not enough for me to invest in this situation. 

Antonio Gibson is the guy we want to focus on. He has seen his total yards rise each week, peaking last week at 128 against a tough Ravens D. He saw a career-high 17 touches, catching four of his five targets. He has five goal-line targets (fifth) and has scored a TD in three straight games. Washington is targeting RBs a lot (22.4%), with Gibson and J.D. McKissic in the mix. That high target share should continue with Allen, who made a living last year dumping the ball off to Christian McCaffrey. 

The Football Team is not run blocking well (29th), but they should get a bump this week against the Rams and their underrated BAD rush D. Only Detroit has allowed a higher adjusted line yards per carry average (5.23), which has their DVOA down to 28th. 

Terry McLaurin was getting 9.8 targets per game (sixth) with Haskins. Jalen Ramsey has not shadowed yet but I, like many, think he will this week, with F1 being the only show in town. That and the QB change has me off Scary Terry. 

CORE PLAYS: Antonio Gibson, Rams D

GPP ONLY: Washington D

MIA +8.5. O/U: N/A
MIA: N/A | SF: N/A

Pace and playcalling 

The Dolphins would like to operate slowly and run, but their defense is too bad to let it happen most weeks. They operate at the 24th-slowest pace (neutral), and only get to 17th when trailing. They pass at 66% when trailing, which is league average and down from 2019, and then run at 62% once up by three or more. When you combine that desire to play slow and run with SF’s fifth-lowest neutral pace and similar mindset, this game projects to have a low play volume. 

San Francisco is second in yards per play allowed, allowing just 87.7 rush yards per game. They also have allowed the fewest RZ opportunities this season, allowing just 258 total yards a game in their last three. 

Both the public and the money are backing Miami, which is likely due to the injury situation in San Francisco. On defense, they will be without DE Ezekiel Ansah (biceps), CB Dontae Johnson (groin), CB Emmanuel Moseley (concussion), CB K’Waun Williams (knee, hip) and CB Richard Sherman (still on IR). CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) is also on the questionable side.

RB Raheem Mostert (knee) and WR Deebo Samuel (illness) are questionable, which makes this an offense that will require a Saturday or even Sunday update, depending on when news break about one or both.

Dolphins 

Brian Flores has called Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter for their game in SF, but the fact he needs to keep doing that is a little worrisome for Fitz. I am not on any Dolphins on a three-max. If anything changes due to all the injuries in the SF secondary, I will update, but for now I am not investing in MIA. 

Injuries 

• DE Shaq Lawson (shoulder), TE Durham Smythe (knee) OUT; WR Jakeem Grant (illness) 

49ers

Dolphins have the 31st rush DVOA, which plays into the hands of San Francsico, who is eighth in rush DVOA and is welcoming back Jimmy Garoppolo after missing two games with a high ankle sprain. I expect San Francisco to get closer to their 2019 rush rate, where the led the league at 51% (41% this season). 

San Francisco was stunned by a depleted Philly team at home last week, so I expect the Niners to get back to their roots and be run-heavy. Miami is 30th in power and 31st in stuffed rating, which set up this power rush offense very well. San Francisco is second in third-down conversion rate over their last three games, which, combined with a slow pace and lots of rush attempts, should drain the clock quickly. Jerick McKinnon has been a breakdown favorite since his days in Minnesota , so you know I am pumped on seeing him get 17 and 21 touches the past two games. 

(Note: I will update how I am attacking SF after we get more clarity on Samuel and Mostert.)

Per our RotoWorld News Feed on FTN: “Coach Kyle Shanahan said Mostert’s status will boil down to how Mostert is feeling Sunday morning. With Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk all expected to suit up together for the first time all year, odds are Mostert is given the green light for the 49ers to truly start their season. Expect Jerick McKinnon and Mostert to work in an efficient committee upon the latter’s return”

Injuries 

• DE Ezekiel Ansah (biceps), CB Dontae Johnson (groin), CB Emmanuel Moseley (concussion), CB K’Waun Williams (knee/hip), RB Raheem Mostert (knee), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), WR Deebo Samuel (illness)

CORE PLAYS: George Kittle 

GPP ONLY: I will update the rest of this game after more injury news breaks 

IND -2.5. O/U:47.5
IND: 24 | CLE: 23

Pace and playcalling 

The Browns have taken advantage of a Cincinnati-Dallas-Washington stretch to score an average of 39.4 points per game after just six in Week 1 against Baltimore. 

The Colts have been sucking the life out of games all season, averaging a combined 37.3 PPG over their last three. They play at the 20th neutral and 30th overall pace, due to grinding out the clock in the second half (31st second-half pace). Just like the Browns, the Colts have taken advantage of inferior opponents, playing the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. Still, both PFF and FO are sold by this D, with both sites grading them first. 

There are a couple decent one-offs in this game, but it is not going to make the top stacks list Sunday morning. 

Colts

Philip Rivers isn’t someone we are going to use much this season. Indy runs at the sixth-highest rate, T.Y. Hilton looks washed, and both Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman are on the shelf. We would need a Dallas or Atlanta to help elevate their play volume and pace. Cleveland is stronger in rush D, but I don’t think that will get Indy away from riding Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines (Hines has out-targeted the rookie Taylor 9-4 since Week 1).

I also don’t have any interest in Hilton or Zach Pascal on a three-max, despite the Browns struggling against opposing wideouts. 

The Colts TE situation has gone from one man to three this season with Trey Burton returning the lineup. Burton saw five targets last week, compared to one for Jack Doyle and two for Mo Alie-Cox. None of these guys can be trusted in a TE by committee, but Alie-Cox is turning into a RZ monster, with 5 EZ targets to lead the team. Browns have been terrible against opposing TEs, allowing 8 TDs in their last seven games to the position. 

Browns

Kareem Hunt is RB10 on DK, averaging 17.4 FPPG while playing behind Nick Chubb. He only played 36% of snaps last week in Dallas and still managed two scores and 19 FP. Cleveland is first in adjusted line yards gained per carry, first in rush yards and first in explosive runs. At 5.79 RB yards per carry, they are 0.41 ahead of second-place Minnesota. Hunt will face the league’s best defense per DVOA (4.4 yards per play allowed, first). Looking closer, Colts have faced the Bears, Jaguars, Jets and the aforementioned Vikings. Minnesota is the only one to look at as a comparison (Dalvin Cook had 71 total yards and a TD on 15 touches). One break for Hunt and the Browns is LB Darius Leonard being ruled out. Leonard is a top-10, maybe top-five defensive player. Linebacker Anthony Walker is questionable with an ankle injury. Being without both would be a huge deal. LB Bobby Okereke was questionable, but had his designation removed. 

D’Ernest Johnson broke out with both Hunt and Chubb having injuries, rushing 13 times for 95 yards. Dallas and Indy can’t be further apart, though, so ignore Johnson this week.

I won’t be chasing the big Odell Beckham game. Last week (and last year), I outlined his dramatic splits when playing bad defenses, which Indy does not qualify as (by a long shot). Baker Mayfield threw for 165 yards in a game they scored 49 points. If he couldn’t break out there, it isn’t happening against Indy. 

David Njoku is back. Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant have already been cutting into each other’s target share on a low-volume offense, so throwing another guy in the mix is not great for DFS. 

Injuries 

• CB Greedy Williams (shoulder), DT Larry Ogunjobi (abdomen), LB Tae Davis (elbow) OUT
• DE Adrian Clayborn (hip), S Karl Joseph (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE

CORE PLAYS: N/A 

GPP ONLY: Kareem Hunt 

NYG +9.5. O/U:54
NYG: 21 | DAL: 32.5

Pace and playcalling 

It’s hard to see a game with the league’s worst offense and think shootout, but that is how far the Cowboys defense has fallen, giving up 42 points per game over their last three and 36.5 for the season (last). The Giants haven’t scored a TD since Week 2 and are last in points per drive, trailing the Jets by a healthy margin. They rank at or close to the bottom in nearly every offensive category making this a potential get-well game for both sides. 

This game is one of the strangest I can remember breaking down, with Dallas’ games averaging a combined 68.0 points per game (first) compared to 35.8 in Giants games (32nd). 

The Giants have had a brutal schedule, facing Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Chicago and the Rams to open the season. All those teams are in the top-seven in points allowed, which makes this their best matchup by a wide margin. 

In terms of pace, this is a great matchup. Dallas is first in neutral pace, nearly three seconds faster than Arizona. Giants play at a league-average pace but have been behind all season (12th-fastest when down by at least 7), which has them ninth overall. The Cowboys should be able to entice the Giants into that faster pace and should pull up their play volume (Giants 29th in plays per game, Dallas first). 

These teams pass at the two highest overall rates. Giants opponents run at the eighth-highest rate, despite them being better against the run (24th pass, eighth run, 11th overall in DVOA). A big Dallas lead is the one thing that could ruin, or at least slow down, this game for DFS. In very limited (7) snaps with a lead, Dallas dropped their pass rate to 43% (69% overall, 73% when down by at least 7). Seven snaps with a lead (32nd) is clearly not enough, but after so many shootouts, you know they would love to protect their defense by simply slowing the game down and handing the ball off. 

Giants

Like we saw in LA last week, this offense against a solid D, that also likes to run the ball, equals a low-volume game with a clock that seems to never stop. But this is the Cowboys, the rising tide that lifts all fantasy boats, even a shitty little boat like the 2020 NY Football Giants.

Daniel Jones was extremely matchup-dependent last year, going off against the Jets, Bucs, Lions and Washington (twice). Those four games carried his entire season — he averaged a robust 31.66 fantasy points per game in those five games on 308 yards and 3.2 passing TDs per game (accounting for 16 of his 24 TDs). Other than that, he was unusable, averaging 197 yards and 0.83 TDs a game for 12.08 FPPG. Again, starting against the Rams, Steelers, Bears and 49ers is murderer’s row for a young QB who wilts under pressure. Jones is 30th in pressured completion rate (25%), and sixth when clean (83%). 

Looking at expected points, Jones is second with -34.7 fantasy points below expectation, which tells us this is a great spot for his fifth career blowup. He is also averaging 4.5 carries for 34 yards on the ground this year, both up from last year, which raises his ceiling. With so many multidimensional QBs in the game (and all on this slate), having our value QB with some rushing upside is nice and almost necessary at this point. 

I know it is hard to click on a guy averaging 10.8 FPPG (QB32), but we aren’t buying the past; we are predicting the future.

Devonta Freeman emerged with 37 snaps last week (54.4%), compared to 21 for Dion Lewis and 10 for Wayne Gallman. Freeman also led in pass routes, catching 4-35-0 on four targets (68 total yards). The Giants also watched the tape of the Cowboys essentially giving up on tackling, allowing 220-plus rushing yards to Cleveland RBs, not to mention the Odell Beckham 50-yard TD run, so I assume they try to run until they fall behind. Given the passing-game work, Freeman seems to be script-proof in a game with a 54-point total, at $4.6k (DK), 5% or less ownership, projected to get around 15 touches. The biggest issue for the Giants is their 32nd-ranked OL in terms of adjusted line yards. They should be able to improve that this week with Dallas 27th and without Leighton Vander Esch and defensive ends Tyrone Crawford and Dorance Armstrong. 

CB Chidobe Awuzie is still out and Byron Jones is in Miami, which will leave Daryl Worley (3.5 fantasy points per target) and rookie Trevon Diggs as the Cowboys’ starting outside CBs. Yikes. Only the Seattle outside CBs have allowed more fantasy production than this unit, which sets up Darius Slayton for a potential second blowup of the year. Per our Air Yards table, Slayton is getting all the valuable targets, with 37.25% of air yards and a 57% Weighted Opportunity Rating. 

Behind him is Evan Engram, who checks all the boxes for usage (7.5 targets per game); he just needs to produce. Engram came along with Jones for three of his four big games last season, averaging over 16 fantasy points per game in them. He has also been better with Jones under center than an aging Eli Manning, which I would have thought to be opposite. It isn’t anything dramatic, but it does illustrate that Jones likes to target his hybrid TE, averaging over 8.0 targets per game (his 40% slot route this season is fifth among all TEs).

When a receiver who relies on yards after the catch turns 32 and can no longer run after the catch, you have a problem. Golden Tate is that player — he has always relied on his playmaking ability after the ball is in his hands. He is 101st in average target distance (5.5 yards), which isn’t unusual for a slot WR, but he is also 90th in yards after the catch, getting just 1.5 YAC. I know it just takes one long play to change that, but that is not the kind of play you want to bank on, with zero targets of 15+ yards. Dallas has been horrible against slot WRs also, but I am going to attack it with Engram.

Cowboys

Dak Prescott appears matchup-proof at this point, so spending time on examining the Giants D is not going to be worthwhile. He has owned this matchup recently, averaging 27.57 fantasy points (DK) over their last four (302 yards and 3 TDs per game). He is the No. 1 QB in fantasy this season (34.3 fantasy points per game) yet remains priced below Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Giants are top-10 in pressure, but Prescott is 11th in pressure completion rate, and can use a pass rush to scramble, averaging 4 carries and 21.5 rush yards a game (5 RZ carries, 3 TDs). He needs to be on one of your three-max teams. 

Ezekiel Elliott is that usage monster that we love in cash games, averaging 23.3 touches per game (second opportunity, first in weighted opportunity). He only has 4 TDs, which is due for a bump with that kind of workload — he gets 4.8 RZ attempts per game (third) and has 8 goal-line carries (first). That has his expected fantasy points and TDs jumping off the page, and why he is a top-three RB on the slate even at his high price and expected ownership. I will likely have him on one of three GPP teams, with the hope that the Giants run defense is better than we realize and this turns into a Dak game. 

Amari Cooper has had a huge boost this season from the volume, ranking first in targets per game (12.4), up from 17th (7.4). He is averaging 9.2 catches and 102 receiving yards, with only a lack of TDs preventing him from being the overall WR1. James Bradberry has been great since Week 1, when he got beaten up by the Steelers for 4-70-2 in coverage. He held Allen Robinson down for 1-14-0 on 6 targets, and only gave up 12 yards on four pass attempts against the Rams. Like I said in the opening, looking at four weeks of defense against non-Dallas teams is not going to tell us much, Bradberry ads a little extra risk to Amari which is enough to keep him out of cash. He is only $400 more on FD, which allows us to game stack easier. 

The other reason Cooper won’t be in cash is CeeDee Lamb, who will be in the Sunday a.m. cash core. Lamb continues to be under $6k on FD, which is ridiculous after five receptions in all four games. Lamb has the best matchup of all these WRs as well, with Darnay Holmes playing 88% of snaps in the slot (93% for Lamb). Slot WRs often end up against safeties, which is how Cooper Kupp got loose for a 55-yard TD last week, so Lamb should be in plus matchups all afternoon. 

Dak’s passer rating by section of the field. 

Source: Sharp Football Stats

Giants pass defense passer rating allowed by section of the field. 

Michael Gallup is stuck in the “home-run hitter” role, averaging 21.2 YPC this season (fourth), but with only 6.0 targets a game after 8.1 last season. His target share was a respectable 21% last season, but the presence of Lamb and a higher target share to Cooper and Elliott has him in a role that isn’t great outside of MME in a large-field GPP. 

Dalton Schultz is a real thing. He has played three games as the team’s TE1 since Blake Jarwin went on IR and has been TE7, TE4 and TE18 in fantasy in those games. The one down game was the Seattle game, which saw Cedick Wilson do his Tyreek Hill impression while Michael Gallup had his blowup. Schultz’ target share is only 15.33% over those three games, but with the Cowboys’ play volume that is one more target than Evan Engram, who has a 22% target share. Despite not starting the season as the starter, Schultz is tied with Cooper in red-zone targets and goal-line targets (Lamb is also tied with 2). Schultz remains the least expensive way to get exposure to this offense and a solid play. 

CORE PLAYS: CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott (OK to play with Lamb, also OK to stack with prescott) 

GPP ONLY: Daniel Jones/Darius Slayton/Evan Engram, Amari Cooper, Devonta Freeman 

PHI @ PIT

PHI +7.5. O/U:44.5

PHI: 18.5 | PIT: 26.5

PHI

The Steelers got an unplanned bye week thanks to the Titans. That means they have been preparing for a depleted Philly squad that comes into PITT after playing in SF on MNF. Per Dr. Chao’s injury matchup tool, you can see just how beat up the Eagles are, especially in comparison to PITT. For this reason, coupled with the Steelers 3rd overall DVOA, I am off all Philly players this week. 

Carson Wentz has compiled over 40% of his fantasy points with his legs which simply isn’t sustainable. Their offensive line has allowed 14 sacks which have led to Philly averaging 2.2 turnovers per game. Murphy’s Law dictates that when your OL is banged up, you get to face the Steelers, who are 1st in blitz and pressure rate. We make fun of the Giants and Jets, and rightfully so, but this Eagles team is 31st in offensive DVOA, tied with the Jets at 4.5 yards per play. 

Miles Sanders also is hurt by the offensive line woes. This is another brutal matchup, with PITT ranked first in rush DVOA. I wish they would line him up in the slot more and use him as a WR, but he only sees 6-targets per game thus far. He is 30th in evaded tackles and 44th in juke rate, which tells us he is not going to pull a Barry Sanders and overcome a depleted line against PITT. He should get 50-60 yards and (hopefully) another 3-4 catches to push at 100 total yards with a TD being the thing that pushes him over the top. Philly is 31st in RZ opportunities which has Sanders 37th in RZ usage.  

DeSean Jackson practiced but will miss another game with a hamstring injury. Greg Ward has 18 targets in his last two games, with one 20 FP game on the back of a TD against the Bengals. His props/projection is about what you would expect, 4.5 receptions and 45.5 yards. Ward runs 72% of his routes from the slot, which means he will see a lot of Mike Hilton, who has not been good in coverage this season, allowing Randall Cobb to catch all six of his targets for 130 yards and a TD in week 3.  This is a case of attrition, and Ward is the last man standing. 

Travis Fulgham & James Hightower will play outside in 3-WR sets. PItt has not been shut down secondary by a long shot, they have allowed the 7th most fantasy point to wideouts. The reason we aren’t going after that is the pass rush, I don’t think they can protect Wentz. The Steelers 46.5% pressure rate is +15% greater than second-place NE. 

Zach Ertz looks washed, getting 4.8-34.8 yards p/g despite all the opportunity with the injuries (19% target share). He should get his 6-8 targets but is not someone I am looking to invest in on a slate with Kittle, Kelce, Waller, and all the value guys. 

PIT 

Ben Roethlisberger comes in as QB12, consistently scoring between 19 and 22 FPPG. Eagles have allowed some production to QBs, but right in that same 19-23 FP range that doesn’t get you too excited anymore in the age of Lamar, Dak, etc. 

The Eagles are better in pass D this year with the addition of Slay but will be running out Jalen Mills at cornerback in place of Avonte Maddox. Mills should see a lot of the speedster rookie, Chase Claypool which is a bad matchup for the speed challenged 6th round veteran.

Darius Slay should lock onto Diontae Johnson, who was knocked out of his week 3 game with a concussion. Obviously, having the extra week was +e/v for Johnson, who has posted  6-57-0 and 8-92-1. Johnson runs 90% of his routes on the outside, where Slay has locked up Terry McLaurin (5-61-0), Robert Woods (2-14-0), A.J. Green (5-36-0), and Brandon Aiyuk (2-18-0). 

Juju Smith-Schuster has the matchup with his decided size (skill) advantage with the 5’-7” Nickell Robey-Coleman. PITT is 21st in pass rate, which has Juju 59th in targets per game (6.3). If this is a controlled PITT win, the volume could once again cap his upside (53.3 yards per game). He is seeing 25%+ of Ben’s RZ targets, so let’s hope for a multi-TD day from Juju if we play him GPPs. Slot WRs have had the most success against Philly, including  Tyler Boyd (10-125-0), Cooper Kupp (5-81-0), and Steven Sims. 

James Conner was beasting before their unplanned bye-week, averaging 135 total yards and a TD. Philly is 6th in adjusted line yards allowed, but have allowed a rushing TD in 3 of 4 games and two to Peyton Barber. 

Eric Ebron is the other player that can take advantage of the middle of this passing defense, that got ripped apart by George Kittle. Ebron is not a 15 target guy and is not Kittle, but he has seen his target share continue to rise over his first three games with Ben. TEs against Philly have now completed 26-286-5 on just 30 targets. 

CORE: PITT D, EBRON 

GPP: JUJU, CONNER, WARD (DK), CLAYPOOL 

SUNDAY AM UPDATE

Top Stacks: 

JAX/HOU

CAR/ATL

NYG/DALLAS

Honorable Mention – RAIDERS/KC 

CASH Core (FD): Watson – CEH – Davis – CeeDee  – Zaccheaus – Kittle – PITT 

CASH Core (DK):  Teddy – Zeke – Davis – Nuk – Jeff Smith – Kelce – CEH 

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE): JRob, Fuller, (two of my highest owned players),  Mahomes-Tyreek-Jacobs-Waller, Engram, Dak/Amari stacks, Lamar/Hollywood

Underweight – Kyler, Drake (AZ in general outside of NUK),  Hunt

Low(er) owned one-offs: Hardman, Waller, Jacobs, Ebron, Shenault Jr., Gibson, Minshew/Chark