Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 10, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend DFS slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 10.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
BUF -13.5 @ NYJ, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: BUF 30.5, NYJ 17
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- I’m experiencing deja vu while looking at this matchup after last week, as it is seriously one-sided on paper. Of course, as week nine reminded us, they have to play the game.
- The Jets are last in points allowed at 31.4 PPG (2.92 points per drive).
- Buffalo is still first in points and yards allowed per play and drive.
- After giving up 532 yards to the Colts, the Jets are allowing 467 total yards per game (32nd) over their last three (408 this season, 32nd).
- The Jets have allowed 14 rush TDs and 40 FPPG on DK, 9 FP more than Detroit.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
The Jets are allowing 4.74 RB yards per carry to go along with all those rush TDs, but the Bills have averaged just 13.5 RB rush attempts per game in their last four and feature a two-back committee. The backs also yield 7.1 carries and 39 rush yards per game to Josh Allen, which hurts their upside. Allen does not throw to his backs very much and takes away carries/rush TDs (2.1 RZ attempts per game). He is the clear-cut QB1 against the Jets’ 31st-ranked pass DVOA, even after the dud last week. The RBs are nothing but GPP fliers on a slate with so many great backfield options.
The Bills DST is in a great spot. Buffalo is allowing 3.5 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 1.5 fewer than the second-ranked Rams. Jets QBs have combined for 14 INTs, while Buffalo is tied for third with 11 INTs on defense.
Cole Beasley is banged up and was limited in practice all week again, but doesn’t carry an injury designation, so I think he plays. He matched his QB last week — lots of targets/catches, but a putrid 33 receiving yards on 8 catches. That makes him the cheapest way to get exposure to this offense and their 30.5 team total. He caught 11 balls for 112 yards last year in this matchup in New Jersey.
GPP/MME
Stefon Diggs has been good but underwhelming (only three games over 80 yards this season) considering his high price and ownership throughout the season. We may get him at slightly lower roster percentage than normal given back-to-back games averaging 14 fantasy points per game. I think Buffalo takes the Jets apart, and Diggs will play his part with one of the best WR/CB matchups on the slate. The only reason he is in GPP/MME is being so close to Davante Adams. I like Diggs a lot in this spot, but if playing cash or one lineup I am playing Adams and DK Metcalf above Diggs.
Like last week, I will be making a ton of Bills stacks mixing in combos of Diggs, Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Dawson Knox will also be in the player pool assuming all signs are good regarding his health. Sanders is getting red zone and deep targets so remains a solid candidate for another low-rostered 20-fantasy-point game in your Allen stack (Sanders has games of 20 and 26 FP on DK this season).
Corey Davis is expected to return, joining Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole and Denzel Mims (COVID-19 list, could return if two negative tests). When you add in Michael Carter and the TEs, you have a target distribution nightmare in an inefficient offense against a top defense. Moore should get a lot of attention after breaking out for over 28 fantasy points against Indianapolis, his third straight with at least 10 fantasy points, but with the target share leader returning (Davis), he is an easy fade for me against Buffalo (first in WR FPPG allowed).
The Bills have been brutal for pass-catching backs, allowing just 3 catches per game (first), which makes Carter a tough sell as well at his highest price point of the season. I like him more with Captain Checkdown Mike White back at QB, but he is not a priority.
Tevin Coleman could be active for the first time since Week 5. I would think the rookie has done enough to keep the gig, but I learned long ago to not assume NFL coaches will do the logical thing. Coleman is the “veteran,” so I would not be surprised to see him work back in the mix with Ty Johnson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Footabll Team
TB -9.5 @ WAS, O/U 51.5
Implied team totals: TB 30.5, WAS 21
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Both teams are in the top-4 in RB yards per carry allowed, which pushes their opponents into the pass. TB also scores a ton of points (32.5, first), which led to a 68% pass rate against (first).
- Washington would like to stay balanced, even run heavy if the script ever allowed it, but at 2-6, they have had to play a lot of catchup. That should be the case again as 10-point underdogs.
- Tampa is 13th in pace and second in neutral pass rate (66.8%). The combo of their high pass rate and their opponents’ passing at the highest rate has led to TB games averaging 55.4 points per game.
- Washington is 26th in third-down conversion rate which has their opponents running 66 offensive plays a game. Tampa is second in third-down conversion rate, which had led to them running the second-most offensive plays per game.
- Injuries are a big story in this game, with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski OUT. Chris Godwin is a game-time decision, but it is looking like he is also out.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Not much analysis is needed for the Goat, Tom Brady, and Mike Evans in this spot against WFT, who has allowed 20 TD passes and the most fantasy points per game to QBs this season, despite holding Teddy Bridgewater to 213 and a TD last game. WFT blitzes often (seventh) but is 15th in QB hurries. Not having Brown, Gronk and Godwin seems like it should cap his upside a bit, but that is priced into his low ownership making he and Evans a top GPP QB/WR combo.
Per our Eliot Crist in his Advanced Matchup piece, “WFT is allowing 9.13 yards per attempt when doing so, with the second-highest average depth of target against (9.34 yards).”
Logan Thomas was eligible to return this week but was not activated, so it’s Ricky Seals-Jones time once again. RSJ was slowed by Denver prior to the break but averaged 5-50 in the three games prior (1 TD). TB has seen the third-most targets and second-most receptions to TEs.
I am back on Tyler Johnson at $3.3k on DK ($5.1k) FD. This will be three straight as a WR3/flex in the breakdown (5-65-0 on 6 targets before the bye). Johnson is playing the Antonio Brown role, so whether Chris Godwin plays or not, Johnson will be a big part of my Sunday. If Godwin is out, he will be much more popular, but still a top value play on the slate.
TB signed WR Breshad Perriman and TE Darren Fells this week, but at the time of writing this neither was promoted from the practice squad. O.J. Howard and/or Cameron Brate should be a factor if Godwin is out. Howard has some upside, so I will be sprinkling him into my MME TB stacks.
GPP/MME
Leonard Fournette is a solid play but ended up down here simply due to a loaded RB slate. WFT is good on a YPC basis, but TB has a 30.5-point team total and WFT has given up 12 RB TDs in eight games including a league-high 7 passing TDs to backs. Last we saw Washington, they let Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams combine for 110 total yards, 5 receptions and 2 TDs. He should see a bump in target share if both Godwin and Brown are out and will be a great play at $6.1k on DK if he can grind out a similar line as the Denver backs.
WFT is still thin at WR with Curtis Samuel out, but they should have Cam Sims and Dyami Brown should be back to complement Terry McLaurin. They make DeAndre Carter and Adam Humphries unusable. McLaurin has been predictably unpredictable while tied to Taylor Heinicke and is way too expensive. With a low expected ownership, I will get some stacks in GPPs with these two plus RSJ. I will also have a Heinicke plus RSJ stack (without McLaurin), to allow me to squeeze in Dalvin Cook and/or Najee Harris with Evans and Lenny.
Antonio Gibson admitted he is still battling a shin injury, which has affected his play. He said, “Game day, you definitely get frustrated, because there are certain situations where you’re like, ‘Ah, I couldn’t do this because of this.’” This is another J.D. McKissic game anyway with the script and matchup being brutal. Tampa Bay allows 7.3 RB catches p/g (fourth most).
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
ATL +9 @ DAL, O/U 55
Implied team totals: DAL 32, ATL 23
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Coming off their lowest point total this season, Dallas is still third in offensive Drive Success Rate, first in yards per play and third in points per game.
Defensive Success Rate (DSR) is the unweighted accumulation of an opponent’s offensive success rates for each individual team. Success rate is a measure of how many plays gain 50% of needed yards on first down, 50% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.
Further in DSR stats, a standard down includes all first downs, second down with 1-7 yards to go, or third/fourth downs with 1-4 yards to go. Meanwhile, passing downs are second and 8 yards or more, as well as third/fourth downs and at least 5 yards to go. Yardage gained on a QB scramble is considered yards gained on a passing play in the calculation. Offensive kneeldowns are not included (per Inside the Pylon). - Atlanta has faced one of the easiest schedules this season, facing New Orleans (17th in offensive DVOA), Carolina (31st), Miami (28th), the Jets (27th), Washington (22nd), the Giants (26th), Tampa (1st) and Philadelphia (13th). Somehow, they are still 28th in points and points per drive allowed.
- Atlanta is last in defensive Drive Success Rate.
- Dallas is eighth in pace and 12th in pass rate (last four, neutral)
- Atlanta is 11th in pace and pass rate, making this one of the better games on the slate, as indicated by the game’s 55-point total.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Dak Prescott was awful last week yet still ended with 19.9 DraftKings points thanks to garbage time. Dak has a 47% completion rate under pressure and 74% when clean, setting him up very well against an Atlanta team that is 31st in adjusted sack and pressure rate. Atlanta’s defense is 29th in the league in pressure rate (18.6%), last in sacks (11), 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.51) and 29th in passing points allowed per game (17.9). He is my QB1.
Slot WR Cedrick Wilson is banged up, but Michael Gallup is back after being injured in Week 1 (4-36-0 on 7 targets, 60% of snaps). Gallup can be used immediately in GPPs in Dak stacks. His return (and Wilson’s possible absence) is big news for CeeDee Lamb, as he should see the majority of his targets from the slot moving forward. Lamb saw 92% of his targets from inside last season (27% in Week 1 with Wilson in the lineup). Lamb led the league in air yards last week (212 yards, ending with 29 actual receiving yards) making him the ultimate buy low on the slate. He is my WR2, behind Davante Adams.
Ezekiel Elliott had his injury designation removed (knee), which makes him a key RB play to get exposure to. ATL is solid statistically, but when you review the RBs they faced. They allowed New Orleans backs 180 total yards and a TD last week on 33 touches, including 9-75-0 through the air. Elliott has picked it up in the passing game, catching 14 balls for 98 yards (last 3).
GPP/MME
Amari Cooper will also get more work from the slot, but he and Gallup will see more A.J. Terrell, Atlanta’s best CB (31% catch rate allowed in coverage). Terrell does not shadow, so don’t fade Cooper due to him in GPPs.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the top option for Atlanta, seeing over 6 targets per game over his last four. They can’t run, averaging just 62.7 yards per game (last 3), but this is a favorable matchup with Dallas allowing 195 rush yards per game (last two). I don’t love to play him as chalk, but I will have him in DAL/ATL game stacks.
Matt Ryan is set up for a high-volume day against a defense that gives it up to QBs (fourth-most fantasy points per game). He came through last week in the second half in NO, but I worry about him on the road without Calvin Ridley. We are just a week removed from a 146-yards passing game with 3 turnovers. Just like recency bias with all the great players who shit the bed last week, don’t go crazy chasing the good performances either. With the high total, good script and environment, Ryan is a top-seven QB, just keep in mind the rock bottom floor he has.
With Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle off the main slate, rookie Kyle Pitts is the premium option and should be the most popular TE, especially as a runback in Dallas stacks. I will get some exposure but will likely be lower than the field with my priority being high-end WR/QB stacks.
Blake Jarwin is on IR. Dalton Schultz has fallen back to earth with Dallas moving back to more three-WR sets. I would assume that continues with Gallup back, which (combined with his higher salary) makes him more of a Dak stack/GPP play than a cash game/single-entry play.
If you insist on stacking a WR with Ryan, Tajae Sharpe and Russell Gage are playing the most snaps, but they have taken turns with usage/production, so both are GPP fliers only. Olamide Zaccheaus caught 2 TDs last week, but I would not chase them at his 47% snap rate (last 2).
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
NO +3 @ TEN, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: TEN 23.75, NO 20.75
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Tennessee changed it up without King Derrick Henry, passing at a 63.6% neutral rate against the Rams (54% with Henry). It is one game, that is not enough to say that is the Titans moving forward, but against a great New Orleans rush defense I assume we will see a similar split.
- New Orleans also passed at a higher rate last week, asking Trevor Siemian to drop back 41 times in the loss to Atlanta (28 pass attempts per game entering Week 9). Considering they lost, I think Sean Payton will go back to the run-first game plan, even with Alvin Kamara OUT. New Orleans is averaging nearly 10 fewer pass attempts this season on the road, so that is not the first time they have passed heavier at home.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Mark Ingram arrived in NO just in time with Alvin Kamara out. He picked up 9-43-0 plus 5-21-0 on 5 targets last week on just 34% of snaps. Again, NO averages 30 rush attempts per game this season and has the highest target share to RBs (30%), which means Ingram steps into one of the best situations in the league at just $4.5k on DK ($5.5k FD). He has props of 15.5 rush attempts and 3.5 receptions, which is hard to find at that price.
New Orleans signed RB Josh Adams to the practice squad, leaving Alex Armah and Dwayne Washington as the other RB options for the Saints. They clearly don’t want to use those last two, as indicated by the trade for Ingram and signing of Adams.
New Orleans stud LT Terron Armstead (shoulder, foot) appears to be OUT. Bad news for Ingram, but not enough to move off him at these prices.
Tennessee is eighth in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs, but the underlying stats say they are not that good, ranking 26th in adjusted line yards allowed per carry, 24th in rush DVOA. They have also allowed an 80% catch rate to RBs.
Tennessee has 8 INTs in their last six games and have scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four weeks. They are the best-value DST on the board this week against Siemian. They are 11th in pressure rate and tied for fourth in sacks and get a bump with Armstead (NO’s best pass blocker) likely out.
The New Orleans DST is a GPP option, averaging over 10 fantasy points per game on the road this season (fourth in INT%). Tennessee is 29th in adjusted sack rate allowed, which has led to Ryan Tannehill being sacked 27 times (third) and tossing 8 INTs (11th).
GPP/MME
A.J. Brown is the other play in this game. Marshon Lattimore is having another strange/inconsistent season, playing very well against Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin while being torched by just about everyone else (2.1 FP per target in coverage). Regardless, Lattimore has a brand name and DFS players don’t like playing WRs against CBs they have actually heard of. Julio Jones is questionable after missing Friday’s practice, which sets AJB up for another heavy workload (9.75 targets per game in his last four). He is an easier play on FD, where he is less expensive with a larger overall cap.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
JAX +10.5 @ IND, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: IND 29, JAX 18.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Week 9 will test players for recency bias at an unprecedented level. Jacksonville is still 26th in points allowed and 32nd in pass DVOA. What does seem legit is their rush defense, which cracked the top 10 in rush DVOA for the first time this season (second in explosive rush rate).
- Teams have taken notice — opponents have rushed 19.7 times per game (last 3, 31st). That is a dramatic change from 30 rush attempts per game against to start the season. They have allowed 72.7 rush yards per game (last 3), after 130.0 over their first five games. They are now second in RB YPC allowed (3.52).
- This will be a test to see if that strong three-game run was scheduling (MIA, BUF, SEA). Indianapolis comes in hot on the ground, with 167 rush yards per game in their last three against the Jets, Titans and 49ers (second most), and they are fifth on the season (137.3 yards, third in explosive rush rate).
- Jacksonville’s offense is terrible, averaging 13 points per game in their last 3 and 16.5 for the season (31st).
- Indianapolis leads the league at 35.3 points per game (last 3), averaging 29.4 PPG at home.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Michael Pittman should keep it going against the Jaguars, who allow 192 yards per game to opposing WRs. Shaquill Griffin has been decent, but as a whole this secondary is toward the bottom in nearly every relevant stat category (30th in explosive pass rate, third-highest completion rate on deep passes). If Jacksonville is able to keep up the solid play against the run, Pittman could end up as the play in this game.
When we have a battle of strengths, give me the offense playing at home as a 10.5-point favorite. Jonathan Taylor has 9 TDs in his last six games behind 5.1 red-zone touches per game(1st). With such a loaded slate of RBs, Taylor is coming in as the eighth-most popular despite grading out second in our own Kyle Murray’s model.
Carson Wentz has surpassed 20 fantasy points in three straight despite Taylor being so greedy at the goal line. He has 10 TD passes in four games plus a rush TD.
Over their last five games, the Wentz/Taylor stack has averaged 49.44 fantasy points per game, with a multiple of 4.4x, 3.22x, 3.16x, 4.1x and 5.16x. This will be their highest combined salary, with Taylor going over $8k, but Wentz remains under $6k, which makes it a viable QB/RB stack.
The Colts allow the third-most targets per game to the TE and are a weekly target for opposing slot pass catchers. Dan Arnold has seen 7-of-14 slot targets over his last three games, tied for the most on the team with Jamal Agnew. Arnold has a 20% target share over his last four games (23% last two) and remains one of the best-value TEs on all sites.
Agnew has also been good, despite breaking my heart with a dropped TD last week in a tough matchup. He has averaged 7.3 targets per game and runs into the best slot matchup against Kenny Moore, who has seen the most targets, receptions, and yards in the slot this season (per PFF).
GPP/MME
James Robinson should be back. He was red hot prior to the injury, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game in his last four, but I would assume Carlos Hyde stays more involved with JRob still limited in practice. If he is giving away 30-40% of snaps in a game where the script could go against the run, $6.2k is a lot to pay for the hope of passing-game work/TDs.
Zach Pascal has 6-plus targets in three straight. He saw a ton of air yards last week and is the other WR to have in your player pool with Wentz.
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers
DET +9 @ PIT, O/U 43
Implied team totals: PIT 26, DET 17
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Pittsburgh started the season with the third-highest neutral pass rate (65.2%, first four games), averaging 16.75 PPG. That’s dropped to 28th in neutral pass rate over their last four games (51.8%), scoring 23.5 PPG.
- Detroit has played with the lead for just 22 plays this season (32nd). That has led to the highest rush rate against (51.3%, 53% neutral).
- The Lions would like to run (53% neutral) but have the fourth-highest overall pass rate since they are always playing from behind.
- Detroit is 30th in yards per play allowed, 31st in points and 32nd in points allowed per drive (2.99 points per drive).
- Detroit has allowed 35.3 points on 374 total yards per game in the last three.
- Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS the spread at home and 0-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
- Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 to the UNDER overall; Detroit is 1-3 to the UNDER on the road.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
As laid out in the pace section, Najee Harris is in a smash spot with 20-plus touches in six straight and 25-plus in his last four. This sets up as one of the best matchups of the season, as a large home favorite against a run funnel. They have allowed 16 RB TDs (first, tied with NYJ) and 33.3 rush attempts per game (last three). I may just push the lock button on Najee this week.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool OUT, James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud get a bump with Diontae Johnson being the obvious “other” player to use in all formats. He is a top-five WR on the slate.
GPP/MME
T.J. Hockenson has finally been used like he should on this terrible team, seeing 31 targets in his last three after just 13 in Weeks 3-5. Pittsburgh allowed 7-115-0 on 11 targets to Chicago TEs last week. He is my preferred runback if you are stacking Pittsburgh.
D’Andre Swift is a fade for me this week. Pittsburgh is a tough matchup and Swift, while leading the league in targets and catches by a back, still hasn’t gotten full run at the goal line on a team that is projected to score 17 points, the lowest total on the slate. Pittsburgh has allowed the third-fewest targets and fourth-fewest RB catches.
Eric Ebron is expected back, but with all the injuries at WR I expect Pat Freiermuth to stay involved. That said, he is currently projected as the chalk TE on FD in our model. I was surprised by this with Ebron back, and it has me less excited about the play. He has scored 3 TDs in his last two games, which is obviously not sustainable. Check back Sunday morning to see my final ranking for Freiermuth, but as of now I will be underweight compared to the field.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
CLE +1 @ NE, O/U 45.5
Implied team totals: NE 23.25, CLE 22.25
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- This is a terrible game from a pace and playcalling perspective. Cleveland is 30th, New England 22nd in neutral script. CLE runs at the third-highest rush rate (48.1%, neutral). Since Week 4, NE has switched to the fourth-highest rush rate (47.7%).
- Baker Mayfield isn’t in play on most weeks for DFS, and Week 10 is no different. Mayfield takes on a New England secondary ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA. The Patriots have allowed the third-lowest adjusted completion rate (69.8%) and sixth fewest passing touchdowns (12).
- The Patriots are not a pushover run defense, but they can be run on. New England ranks 17th in adjusted line yards allowed, 19th in open-field yards. They have allowed the second-highest yards after contact per attempt and sit at 22nd in stuff rate per FTN Data. These metrics matter more to me when looking at the overall quality of a run defense than counting stats, which also don’t take into account the strength of the opposing offensive line. Cleveland is top three in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards, so I won’t question their ability to bully a defensive line. New England has already faced three top-10 offensive lines (Dallas, Tampa Bay, New Orleans) in adjusted line yards. The running backs for those teams have averaged 26.3 rushing attempts and 109.3 rushing yards per game with 4.1 yards per carry. That type of volume could be needed here, but with the entire running back room possibly out this week, D’Ernest Johnson could get it. In Week 7, Johnson exploded with 24 touches and 168 total yards.
- The elevated passing-game usage would be fantastic against a Patriots team that struggles to cover running backs. New England ranks 29th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing 61 receptions (fourth most) and 593 receiving yards (second most).
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
D’Ernest Johnson is the chalk at RB this week with three Cleveland backs on the Reserve/COVID-19 List. I keep seeing people on Twitter worrying about the NE defense/Bill Belichick. This is nonsense; the Hoody is not some defensive sorcerer who can take away an entire rushing offense, much less the league’s most efficient rushing offense. Cleveland ranks first in rush DVOA by nearly three times over second-place Baltimore, a disparity I have never seen this far into a season.
New England has solid defensive ends but is thin up the middle where Cleveland will pound you into submission. The Browns will be without center J.C. Tretter, who is PFF’s seventh-best center this season, but NE (top-10 pass DVOA, 17th against the rush), will be without LB Jamie Collins.
Johnson has a player prop of 76.5 rush yards after seeing 22 rush attempts in his one start this season against Denver. He only ran 11 routes in that game (2-21-0 on 2 targets) with Demetric Felton getting 3 targets. But Felton is also out, which could lead to a spike in passing work against a NE team that has allowed the third-most RB targets and fourth-most RB receptions. I will try to come in at (minimum) 1.5x the field, meaning if final ownership is projected at 40%, I will get 60% exposure (or more).
Cleveland signed Brian Hill this week as insurance, but I don’t expect him to take many snaps from Johnson.
GPP/MME
Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are hoping to clear concussion protocol before kickoff, but their uncertainty and a tough Cleveland rush D has me off NE RBs. Jonnu Smith did leave last week’s game with a shoulder injury to give Hunter Henry some added runway should Smith be out for a period of time, but Henry had already distanced himself as the lead tight end in this offense. If Smith is OUT, Henry can be rolled out in GPPs.
The Cleveland DST has allowed 15 PPG in its last three after getting beaten down by the Chargers and Cardinals. They are third in QB pressure rate and T-2nd in sacks while blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate. This combo was tough on Joe Burrow last week, who was sacked 5 times and turned it over 3 times. Mac Jones has been really good against pressure thus far, but being able to generate pressure without blitzing is generally not a good combo for rookie QBs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
MIN +2.5 @ LAC, O/U 51.5
Implied team totals: LAC 27, MIN 24.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- This should be a popular game for DFS this week with so many low totals and bad teams playing.
- I outlined the massive home/road splits Minnesota has produced last week so won’t go into the same detail. In summary, they are now 4-0 to the OVER on the road with their games flying over the number by an average of 12.5 points per game (1st).
- Minnesota has averaged (ironically) 12.5 more points per game on the road (30.5).
- Both teams are terrible at stopping the run. LAC is 29th and MIN is 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed per carry, with LAC last in RB yards per carry (4.86).
- Minnesota runs a lot of plays (eighth most) and gives up even more (second most).
- Minnesota can get after the QB (fourth in pressure rate), but Los Angeles is equally as good at protecting Justin Herbert (fourth-best QB pressure rate).
- 50% of TDs against LAC have come via the run (second highest, 66% in their last three).
- Minnesota is fourth in passing TD percentage at 76%.
- Los Angeles is quietly 28th in yards per drive allowed (25th in points), with their games averaging a combined 50 points.
- Los Angeles has some key defensive injuries. Safety Nasir Adderley (ankle) is questionable and cornerback Michael Davis (hamstring) is OUT. Even bigger (literally) is Joey Bosa being added to Friday’s injury report as a DNP. Late-week additions are usually a bad sign. If he is out, give a bump to Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook.
- After losing Patrick Peterson and Danielle Hunter in recent weeks, Minnesota will be without Harrison Smith due to COVID-19 again this week.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Austin Ekeler flopped last week, but the entire slate was a big steaming pile of garbage, so the theme continues. Have a short memory, throw everything you saw last week out the window, and play Ekeler. I know some dismiss home/road splits as noise, but most football stats and trends are too small a sample to satisfy a true statistician. That is just the nature of the game so if you are waiting for a big enough sample, it’s already too late. I noticed Ekeler’s home/road splits last week and dismissed them due to the small sample, well, not this week. He is averaging 28.3 FPPG at home and 13.5 away and is my RB2, getting a slight edge over Cook.
Dalvin Cook is still not seeing the passing work I want, averaging just 12 routes in his last two after 18 per game in his first four, but I still love him in this spot. Cook has seen the downside of TD variance, after 17 TDs last season (5% TD rate), he has 2 TDs on a 1.5% TD rate. I think he gets in the box this week.
Per our own Derek Brown in his game-by-game writeup, “They (LAC) are 32nd in stuff rate while also giving up the tenth highest gash rate. Cook’s pass game usage has dried up as he hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Week 4, but it matters little here when he could break the slate with his rushing output alone.”
On a slate full of elite RB options, Cook stands out on the high-end, just after Najee Harris and Ekeler in my projections.
I will be game stacking Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins with (primarily) Justin Jefferson and Keenan Allen (32.4% and 35.1% of the team targets, last two). The Vikes have allowed the sixth-most FP to opposing WRs, which makes Allen my preference and the only one I would play in cash or SE (not in a stack).
The matchup is not ideal for the MIN passing options with LAC being an extreme rush funnel, making the LAC side my preference with Cook as the run back.
GPP/MME
This will test our resolve, but I think we need to stack Mike Williams again. He has been terrible since coming out hot, catching just 6 balls in his last three games. But this is who he is and has always been. He has a rock bottom floor and as high a ceiling as any WR in the game.
Adam Thielen, Jared Cook and Tyler Conklin will be in my player pool stacks for this game, but I won’t use them anywhere else.
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
CAR +10 @ ARI, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: ARI 27.25, CAR 17.25
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- This is a gross mismatch with a Phillip Walker-led Carolina team traveling to Arizona.
- Kyler Murray seems to be trending toward playing, but he along with DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore are game time decisions. A.J. Green was activated off the Reserve/COVID-19 List. Even if Nuk and Kyler play, the matchup is not great with Carolina fourth in pass DVOA and seventh in QB pressure rate, and I don’t think CAR will press them enough to allow them to reach value at their high prices.
- Carolina is 20th, Arizona 24th in neutral-script pace. Both teams want to lean on the run game also, which makes this a brutal game for DFS outside of a couple plays.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
James Conner is set up very well again with Chase Edmonds OUT. They used him like a true RB1 last week once Edmonds left, giving him 26 touches for 173 total yards and 3 TDs. This feels like point chasing, but I assure you it is not with Edmonds out. We have picked on Carolina’s rush D, as their poor offense and strong pass rush/secondary pushes teams to the run (sixth-highest rush rate against). New England backs touched the ball over 30 times last week for more than 200 total yards and a TD. Conner leads the league with 11 TDs. Conner had 5 targets heading into Week 9, where he got 5 targets (5-77-1), making him a top option.
GPP/MME
It feels strange to put a healthy Christian McCaffrey in the GPP section, but welcome to Week 10, one of the most loaded RB slates I can recall. McCaffrey played just 49% of snaps last week yet still grinded out 100 total yards. It’s pretty remarkable that he was able to do that considering the QB play, matchup and low playing time but he is just that good at football. With Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook and so much other value on the slate (including Conner) I can’t play him in cash or SE while tied to Phillip Walker and the defense selling out to stop him. It’s CMC — I won’t be surprised in the slightest to see him get 100 total yards and 4-5 catches.
Arizona is a sneaky good matchup for backs, ranking dead last in explosive rush rate. What has saved them is their offense scoring so much, which has teams playing catch up/passing. That has them ranked seventh in fantasy points per game allowed.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos
PHI +3 @ DEN, O/U 44
Implied team totals: DEN 23.5, PHI 20.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- As I say often, if you are a single entry, cash or three-max player, you can’t play every player, nor can you stack every game. With so many clear paths to fantasy points this week, I don’t want to be a “fantasy salmon” and swim upstream.
- Denver is 31st in neutral-script pace and (with Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant healthy) has nasty committees that make it tough to roster any of them.
- Philadelphia has taken the rush rate to another level, ranking first in neutral rush rate at 68.4% (last two).
- Denver also likes to run and drain clock, so again, we can move along from this one.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
N/A
GPP/MME
N/A
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
SEA +3.5 @ GB, O/U 50
Implied team totals: GB 26.75, SEA 23.25
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- In terms of pace and neutral rush rate, this game is as bad as DEN/PHI. Of course, this one features two future Hall of Famers at QB who are among the most efficient of all time.
- Aaron Rodgers is seventh, Russell Wilson ninth in all-time TD rate, but second and third in the modern era behind only Patrick Mahomes, who trails these two by a significant margin in longevity/total TDs.
- The QBs are just so good that we still need to stack this game, especially with the level of talent at WR. That said, I think I will stack it or fade it as the slow pace, high rush rate and decent defenses give it a chance to bust.
- Seattle is 1-6-1 to the UNDER.
- Green Bay is 2-7 to the UNDER.
- These teams run the fewest (Seattle) and seventh-fewest plays per game, which has both in the top eight in points allowed.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Davante Adams is (per the usual) the WR1 on the slate. You’ve got to love (pun intended) his price declining to $7.9k after last week, just the second time this season he has been under $8k on DK and $1.1k less than his season high. Like Dalvin Cook, Adams has had bad luck with TDs, scoring three times (5% TD rate) versus 17 last season (15% TD rate).
Due to the low play volume and scores, Seattle is seventh best against opposing WRs but has allowed some big games to WR1s, including 8-156-2 to Deebo Samuel. He and DK Metcalf are the only players I will be using as one-offs from this game.
GPP/MME
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have to be in great moods as they get ready to play with RW3 again. I will have them stacked with Russell Wilson together and prefer DK as the runback to GB stacks.
Aaron Jones is (sadly) a GPP-only play with the emergence of AJ Dillon. Removing the game where Adams was out, Jones has 11 and 12 touches in his last two. With his price still up in the RB1 area I just can’t do it outside of game stacks where we think these two QBs elevate this into a shootout.
Cash/SE Core
Core (FanDuel)
Core (DK)
Stack ranks
- BUF
- ATL/DAL
- JAX/IND
- TB/WFT
- MIN/LAC
My Player Exposures (not in the core)
QB
RB
**Taylor, Ekeler, Elliott, and Conner are optimal/cash plays, there are just too many RBs this week).
WR
- Michael Pittman (I have a lot of Pittman)
- Stefon Diggs
- Keenan Allen
- Amari Cooper
- DK Metcalf
- A.J. Brown
- Michael Gallup
**The WRs in BOLD could have easily made it into the optimal.
TE
DST
- Titans
- Bills
- Steelers
- Cards
- Panthers (if Kyler Murray is OUT)
- Bucs
- Eagles
- Colts
Low(er) owned: Taylor Heinicke, Christian McCaffrey (strange to have him down here), Terry McLaurin, Mike Williams, Tyler Johnson, Jamal Agnew, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tyler Conklin, Adam Trautman, Browns DST
