NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/14)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have five games on tap on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

*NOTE: FanDuel’s main slate locks at 6 p.m. ET and has six games on the slate, as they have opted to include the Bucks vs. Hawks game. The other five games on BOTH main slates are listed below.

NBA Vegas Data for November 14th | NBA DFS First Look

Golden State Warriors @ Charlotte Hornets

GSW -5, total: 225.5

Pace: GSW (5th), CHA (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• P.J. Washington has been ruled out for the Hornets.
• Damion Lee is listed as questionable for the Warriors.

Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

PHO -8.5, total: 221.5

Pace:  PHO (4th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Deandre Ayton is doubtful for the Suns.

Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

BKN -9, total: 213.5

Pace: BKN (11th), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• N/A

Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -6.5, total: 214

Pace: POR (10th), DEN (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard has been ruled out for the Blazers.
• Jamal Murray and Michael Porter  remain out for the Nuggets.

Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -4, total: 217.5

Pace: CHI (15th), LAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nikola Vucevic remains out for the Bulls.
• Marcus Morris is questionable for the Clippers.

Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Sunday, November 14th.

CJ McCollum saw a 6.67% bump in usage rate in four games without Damian Lillard last season, 

Already sporting a 26.84% usage rate in games that Lillard played, McCollum saw that balloon to 33.51% in the four games his fellow guard missed. That put him up there with the league leaders in usage as he took over as the go-to option on offense.

In those four games, he averaged 25.3 points, 6.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.25 steals in 37.5 minutes per game, all rather significant jumps from his season averages and leading to over 42 DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. McCollum’s price is simply too low to pass on with Lillard out on Sunday, making him a core play on both sites.

LaMelo Ball has posted a 32.2% assist rate and 15.7% rebounding rate over his last three games, both leading the Hornets team.

Ball’s peripheral production has been off the charts over the last week, as he’s averaged 14.0 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game to go along with 16.3 points in 37.2 minutes per game. He notched a triple-double in that span and finished one assist shy of a second one last game. He’s in the best form that we’ve seen all season.

The Warriors are a stout defensive unit, but with the projected pace of this game being the fastest on the slate, it’s hard to not consider Ball. His elevated $10,100 price tag shouldn’t be a deterrent given the peripheral production that we’re seeing.

Zach LaVine saw a 30.5% usage rate in the Bulls’ first game this season without Nikola Vucevic 

The results were not what we were expecting with LaVine, especially considering his usage rate, as he scored 23 points (on 10-17 shooting), but only finished with 30 DraftKings points due to contributing virtually no peripheral stats. The Bulls also got steam-rolled by the Warriors in this game, losing 119 to 93, so the box scores across the board for Chicago were rather disappointing. Now in a bounce-back spot, LaVine should have another opportunity to capitalize on an increase in usage, making him an elite option in the $8,000 range.

The Suns currently rank 28th against stretch bigs and 30th against 3-and-D archetypes, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP tool.

Christian Wood neatly falls into those two categories, with the others being crafty finisher (Suns rank 12th against them), and rebounder (14th). The Suns have not had a ton of success on the defensive end against players like Wood. The absence of Deandre Ayton doesn’t help, as they’re down a big body with JaVale McGee seemingly being incapable of filling in more than 20-ish minutes. Wood comes into the game in some shaky form, but his price has dropped to $8,600 on DraftKings. Wood will have to play a massive role if the Rockets want to keep this game close.

James Harden is averaging 24.5 points, 9.0 assists, and 8.5 rebounds in 35.0 minutes of floor time over his last four games

Harden’s play is starting to come around, as he’s shot 51.7% from the field and 41.9% from three over the last four games while attempting 7.3 free throws per game. Fresh off of his best game of the season, in which he posted 39 points, 12 assists, and five rebounds, Harden should have no problem keeping his momentum going against a tanking Thunder team. The Nets guard is as good a choice as any if you want to take a different approach than the field with your spend-up pick.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,600)
2. Stephen Curry ($11,400)
3. James Harden ($10,800)
4. Kevin Durant ($10,700)
5. Paul George ($10,500)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
2. Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
3. Stephen Curry ($10,300)
4. Kevin Durant ($10,100)
5. Paul George ($10,000)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic (1x)
2. Kevin Durant (1x)
3. Stephen Curry (1.05x)
4. James Harden (1.05x)
5. Paul George (1.05x)

With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Pull Up Jumper ($100k to first) last night.

PG: Spencer Dinwiddie (49.25)
SG: Gary Trent Jr. (37.50)
SF: Kyle Kuzma (38.50)
PF: Evan Mobley (42.25)
C: Pascal Siakam (54.00)
G: Goran Dragic (31.75)
F: Jerami Grant (39.75)
UTIL: Robert Williams (46.00)

Total: 339.00

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k SUPER Swingman ($100k to first) last night.

PG: Ja Morant (49.8)
PG: Eric Bledsoe (40.5)
SG: Darius Garland (35.8)
SG: Spencer Dinwiddie (45.2)
SF: Tobias Harris (45.7)
SF: Terance Mann (25.6)
PF: Robert Williams (47.7)
PF: Myles Turner (44.4)
C: Mo Bamba (48.9)

Total: 383.6

Ownership on this slate gravitated towards both Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyle Kuzma once Bradley Beal was ruled out. Both players turned in phenomenal performances relative to their price tags on both sites. The note here is that on both FanDuel and DraftKings, neither winner opted to pay all the way up for someone like Paul George (who carried ownership over 33% on DraftKings). They instead went the route of Ja Morant on FanDuel and Pascal Siakam on DraftKings, both of whom outproduced George by a wide margin.