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Week 10 Game-by-Game DFS Breakdown

NFL DFS

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Welcome to the game-by-game DFS breakdown for Week 10 of the NFL season. In this writeup, I’ll walk you through the players, stacks, one-offs, etc., that I’ll be targeting weekly in DFS. My aim here is that you can apply this encyclopedia of stats and my word vomit to a variety of sites and contests with everything from cash to your GPP entries.

With plenty of words ahead to peruse, let’s dive into this week’s action. 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys

DAL -9, O/U 55

Pace and playcalling

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This game will be one of the faster ones on the main slate. The Cowboys are eighth in neutral-script pace, followed by the Falcons that sit at 11th. The passing rate should also be healthy here. Both teams have been trending up in this department. Atlanta is 11th in neutral passing rate (58.9%) for the season. Since Week 5, Dallas is also leaning on the aerial attack, ranking 12th (59.2%) in passing percentage in close games.

Injuries

Atlanta

  • No notable injury designations

Dallas

  • Amari Cooper (WR) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
  • Ezekiel Elliot (RB) – (Knee – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Injury Designation
  • Randy Gregory (DE) – (Calf – LP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
  • Tyron Smith (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
  • Cedrick Wilson (WR) – (Shoulder – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Falcons

As nauseating as it seems, Matt Ryan is in play for GPPs this week. Crazy to say, but Ryan has been quite good in the last five games. Over that span he has four games weeks with 283 or more passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns. He’s surpassed 21 fantasy points in three of his last five games. Dallas is tied for the fifth-most turnovers generated, but for our purposes that matters little. The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game (19.5) to opposing quarterbacks. They have given up 7.8 yards per attempt (10th) while showing a vulnerability to play-action passing. Dan Quinn’s defense has surrendered a 7.8% passing touchdown rate (seventh) and a 74.6% adjusted completion rate (third highest) on play-action throws. With Arthur Smith calling the shots play-action has been a staple for Atlanta. Ryan has 87 play-action dropbacks (11th) in only eight games. He’s been surgical on play-action passes with the second-highest adjusted completion rate (78.3%).

Despite the hollow window dressing of rushing attempts, Mike Davis isn’t rosterable with his nonexistent red-zone role. We again turn our attention to Cordarrelle Patterson. Since Week 5, he’s averaging 16.5 touches and 95.7 total yards per game. Last week, he played 56.8% of his snaps at running back and 28% at wide receiver. Patterson should have ample opportunities to make plays in all facets of the game against a defense that since Week 5 is ranked 25th and 28th in explosive rush and pass rates allowed. The Cowboys have given up the eight highest gash rate (12.3%) and fantasy points to wide receivers (26.4). Patterson is a strong play regardless of the role he is playing snap to snap. 

Weeks 7-9

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Cordarrelle Patterson 32 8 16 63
Mike Davis 22 2 8 50
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Over the last two weeks, Kyle Pitts has led the team with a 22.5% target share and 37.5% air yard share. In that stretch since Calvin Ridley’s departure, Pitts has played 83.9% (45.2% slot, 38.7% outside) of his snaps as a wide receiver. Pitts will match up with Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown when outside and Jourdan Lewis when he’s in the slot. Diggs has shadowed on four occasions this season, but not since Week 5. Diggs isn’t likely to follow Pitts, especially with his high slot rate. Diggs has played 8.7% of his snaps in the slot overall this season and only four snaps inside over his last four games. Diggs is allowing a 54.7% catch rate and 69.8 passer rating. Brown is conceding a 59.3% catch rate and 85.9 passer rating. Lewis allows a 69.7% catch rate and 89.2 passer rating.

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Last week Pitts, Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe were the only full-time receivers running 27-30 routes. Olamide Zaccheaus only ran 19 routes while drawing three targets, so don’t chase his two-touchdown performance in Week 10. Russell Gage has drawn a 14% target share and zero red-zone targets in the last two weeks. He’ll run about 53% of his routes from the slot against Lewis. The stacking options (in order of GPP interest) are Pitts and then Patterson. Gage doesn’t make the cut with his lack of a red-zone role. 

Cowboys

The Falcons remain one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (28th in DVOA), and with the Cowboys’ rising passing rates, we can go back to Dak Prescott as a DFS option. The Falcons are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.9) to opposing quarterbacks. Much of this is due to allowing 17 passing touchdowns (third-most) and downfield production. Atlanta is 25th in DVOA against deep passing, surrendering the ninth-highest deep completion rate (44.8%). Prescott is 13th in deep passing rate (12.9%) with five deep passing touchdowns (tied for second-most). Prescott makes core plays this week. 

**Update: Elliott’s full practice on Friday is reassuring for his outlook for this weekend. He’s a leverage play this week and nothing more.**

We’ll have to monitor Ezekiel Elliott’s practice reports this week. Elliott sustained a knee injury during last week’s game that led to him matching a season-low in touches with 13 and playing on 53% snaps. This isn’t a glittering matchup on the ground for Dallas. While Atlanta allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game (21.0) to opposing running backs, other underlying metrics aren’t as kind. Atlanta has the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the third-lowest gash rate allowed. The Falcons have hemorrhaged production to pass-catching backs, and Elliott does fit the bill there with his 13.6% target share over the last three weeks. If (or when) Prescott and the passing attack becomes popular, Elliott is a fine leverage play if he is going to be a full-go. If he’s limited all week and possibly a 50-55% snap player, he’s an easy fade. 

Week 9

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Ezekiel Elliott  10 0 3 20
Tony Pollard 4 0 2 16

Weeks 5-8

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Ezekiel Elliott 54 11 18 81
Tony Pollard 31 6 8 27

If Michael Gallup returns this week, he’ll move into the starting LWR role and move around the formation. He played 60% of the snaps in his only game before the injury, drawing a 12% target share. Gallup will run about 90% of his routes on the outside against Fabian Moreau and A.J. Terrell. Moreau is allowing a 62.5% catch rate and 120.6 passer rating. Terrell has continued his stellar play for Atlanta allowing a 46.4% catch rate and 65.2 passer rating. If Gallup returns to the starting lineup, CeeDee Lamb should take over the primary slot receiver role. In Week 1, he played the slot 40% of his snaps which could have arguably been higher if Gallup had played the entire game. Lamb leads the team with a 22% target share, 32% of the team’s air yards, and a 24% first read share. Lamb will match up against Avery Williams in the slot. Williams is conceding a 66.7% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating. Amari Cooper will run about 70% of his routes on the outside against Moreau and Terrell. Cooper has been the team’s preferred red zone (22%) and end zone target (23%). Cooper and Lamb are tied for the team lead with 15 deep targets. 

Last week with no Blake Jarwin (IR), Dalton Schultz ran a route on 90.6% of Prescott’s dropbacks. He’s garnered an 18.6% target share this year with a 9% red zone target share. His red-zone volume is tied for fifth on Dallas with Malik Turner and Blake Jarwin. Atlanta is an average to below-average matchup for the tight end position. The Falcons are 18th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders), allowing 40 receptions (19th) and 417 receiving yards (19th). Schultz is viable in a game stack. His red-zone role is too puny, and the matchup isn’t eye-popping enough to put him in the mini-stack conversation or one-off territory. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb/Amari Cooper (prefer single stacking one with Prescott), Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts
GPP only: Michael Gallup (leverage if Cooper or Lamb become chalk), Dalton Schultz (game stack only), Matt Ryan

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

TEN -2.5, O/U 44

Pace and playcalling

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At first glance, this game looks like a disgustingly slow rushing extravaganza, but recent developments could flip that on its head. After playing like a slug all season, Sean Payton has finally broken that mold over the last two weeks. Since Week 8, the Saints are 11th in neural-script pace. Their passing rate remains low (25th, 52.2%), but the increased pace can help. 

In their first game without Derrick Henry, the Titans changed the diagram, ranking eighth in natural passing rate (63.6%) after sitting at 54.0% (25th) in Weeks 1-8. They remain a below-average play volume team ranking 20th in pace in neutral situations. 

Injuries

New Orleans

  • Alvin Kamara (RB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
  • C.J. Gardner-Johnson (CB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
  • Terron Armstead (OL) – (Knee/Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Tennessee

  • Bud Dupree (LB) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
  • Chris Jackson (CB) – (Foot – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
  • Harold Landry (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
  • Jeffery Simmons (DT) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
  • Rashaan Evans (LB) – (Ankle – LP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
  • Julio Jones (WR) – (Hamstring – / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Saints

The only options on New Orleans worth discussing for DFS are the ground game and Tre’Quan Smith. With Alvin Kamra out, Mark Ingram will lead the rushing attack this week. The Titans are ranked 26th in adjusted line yards and 18th in second-level and open-field yards allowed. They have given up the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt. They are an average to slightly above average for opposing rushers. Most of the production against this defense should be expected from what these backs do on the ground because they are eighth in DVOA against pass-catching backs. The target volume can help, but don’t expect big numbers through the air for either player. 

Weeks 8-9

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Alvin Kamara 32 8 10 50
Mark Ingram 15 1 7 20

In Weeks 1-6, the Titans started out pummeling opposing ground games, allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate. Since Week 7, though, they have been much more giving, ranking 24th in explosive run rate allowed. The coincides with facing the Chiefs, Rams and Colts, who all have top-shelf offensive lines. This year, the Saints are not playing up to that level in 19th in yards before contact per attempt and 26th or lower in second-level and open-field yards. The efficiency might not be there for Ingram, but he projects as a core play and cash viable with Kamara out. Ingram ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel, 1.6x SuperDraft) is in line for 15-20 touches with nearly all the red-zone work against a 24th-ranked red-zone rush defense. 

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Marquez Callaway has seen a 14% target share with Trevor Siemian under center, but if Kristian Fulton makes his return this week, that’s not a matchup to attack. Callaway would run about 53% of his routes against Fulton, allowing a 39% catch rate and 72.2 passer rating. Deonte Harris might lead all wideouts in target share with Siemian, but he hasn’t been a full-time player. He’s averaged 18.5 routes per game over his last two, so if the routes or the high target per route numbers take a dip, he’s a trap. Tre’Quan Smith has only drawn a 9.5% target share, but he’s second among the wideouts in routes (66), playing 80% snaps last week. Since returning to the starting lineup, he leads the team in slot snaps (66) and draws a plus corner matchup. He’ll draw either Elijah Molden or Chris Jackson in the slot. Molden is allowing a 72.7% catch rate and 122.3 passer rating. Jackson is allowing only a 60% catch rate and 72.9 passer rating in slot coverage this season, but he gave up an 83.3% catch rate (24 targets) and 131.1 passer rating in the same role last season. 

Titans

With the Titans’ increased passing rate last week and the New Orleans Saints’ recent vulnerabilities, Ryan Tannehill returns to the GPP conversation. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan have destroyed this secondary after the Saints started the season with a cakewalk quarterback schedule, including Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke and Geno Smith in the last two weeks. Brady and Ryan completed 72.8% of their passes, averaging 359 passing yards with 10.2 yards per attempt. Tannehill can recreate this type of performance through play-action passing Sunday. This season, the Saints have allowed 9.2 yards per attempt (10th highest) and a 7.2% passing touchdown rate (ninth highest) on play-action throws. Both of Ryan’s touchdown passes in Week 9 came on play-action throws. Tannehill is ninth in play-action dropbacks with the eighth-highest yards per attempt (9.3) on these play designs. With New Orleans’ elite run defense, this is a pass funnel matchup. 

The Titans’ backfield without Derrick Henry dissolved into a three-way committee with Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman all seeing at least five touches. The Saints are top four in every defensive line yard metric I care about and have allowed the fewest rushing yards (590) in the NFL. Don’t roster a Titans’ running back in Week 10. 

Brown has dominated the passing work in the last three games that A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have been active (Weeks 6, 7 and 9). He’s seen a ridiculous 37% target share (63.6% of the team’s air yards), averaging 9.6 targets and 88.6 receiving yards per game. Brown has played RWR about 39% of his snaps while also running out of the slot on about 39%. This would match him up with Paulson Adebo and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (if active) for most of the game. Marshon Lattimore has shadowed three times this season, so it’s possible he does this week, but it’s unlikely with Julio Jones on the other side. Adebo is allowing a 64.3% catch rate and 109.9 passer rating. Gardner-Johnson is giving up a 73.3% catch rate and 97.6 passer rating in slot coverage. If Gardner-Johnson is out, then P.J. Williams will cover Brown when he rolls inside. Williams has allowed all eight of his targets to be secured this season while covering the slot with a 102.1 passer rating. 

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Julio Jones has only seen a 16.6% target share and two red-zone targets over his last three games. Jones hasn’t seen more than five targets since Week 2. He’s averaged a paltry 4.3 targets, three receptions, and 44 receiving yards since Week 6. He’ll run about 55% of his routes against Lattimore if he doesn’t shadow Brown. Lattimore has had equal amounts of stellar and shaky play this season, allowing a 52.1% catch rate but also giving up five receiving touchdowns and a 114.8 passer rating. For Jones, at this juncture, it’s more of a question of health than effectiveness. Among 98 wide receivers with 20 or more targets this season, Jones is 16th in yards per route run (2.18), immediately behind Tyreek Hill and Diontae Johnson. Jones is a leverage play off Brown or a large field GPP target. His mid-week hamstring issue could take him out of play for me in GPPs depending how Friday’s practice and his designation are set. 

**Update: Jones injury worries me enough to cut him out of the GPP pool for this week.**

The Saints have been second in DVOA against the tight end position in the last two seasons, so don’t bother with the Titans’ tight end crapshoot. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: A.J. Brown, Mark Ingram
GPP only: Ryan Tannehill, Tre’Quan Smith

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

IND -10.5, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

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This game environment won’t surprise anyone as one that projects to limp along. The Jaguars are 14th in neutral pace, but the Colts will tie an anchor to their paws at 26th. We flip the script when we look at passing rates, though. Jacksonville has been a run-oriented offense under Urban Meyer, passing on 55.0% (23rd) of their plays when the score is within reach. With a healthier Cason Wentz, the Colts have passed more and now sit at 12th in neutral passing (58.7%) percentage. 

Injuries

Jacksonville

  • James Robinson (RB0 – (Heel – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Indianapolis

  • Xavier Rhodes (CB) – (Calf – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
  • DeForest Buckner (DT) – (Back – / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence isn’t in play for GPPs. He’s only surpassed 280 passing yards twice this season and he hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 1. The match up with the Colts’ secondary is a good one though, so we can look to the Jaguars for stacking partners. Indy is allowing a 77.0% adjusted completion rate (seventh highest), 8.0 yards per attempt (sixth highest), and the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (23). 

James Robinson sounds like he could return this week. In Weeks 4-6, after he reclaimed his every-down role (68-95% snaps), Robinson averaged 20 touches and 101.7 total yards per game. With Robinson possibly less than 100%, it can’t be ruled out he is staring down a role more similar to Weeks 1-3 (59-63% of snaps in two of those three games). Whether it’s Robinson or Carlos Hyde starting in the backfield this week, I’m not interested in the Jaguars’ ground game against a defense ranked second in rush DVOA. The Colts have the 10th-highest stuff rate per FTN Data. This defense has also been stout inside the 20, ranking eighth in red-zone run defense allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns (two) in the NFL. 

There’s a variety of pass-catching options to look at for Jacksonville for runbacks or mini-stack partners, with Marvin Jones, Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold each standing out. Since Week 5, Jones has seen an 18% target share and three red-zone targets running about 66% of his routes on the outside. Jones leads the team with eight end-zone targets (fourth in the NFL) and a 28% red-zone target share. Jones will match up with Isaiah Rodgers and Rock Ya-Sin on the outside. Ya-Sin has been his usual burnable self giving up a 69.2% catch rate and 114.6 passer rating. Rodgers is allowing a 63% catch rate and 67.7 passer rating in coverage.

Since taking over as the starting slot receiver in Week 5 (73.6% slot), Jamal Agnew has drawn a 16.6% target share and three red-zone looks. He will match up with a corner we have picked on all year in Kenny Moore. Moore is giving up a 76.9% catch rate and 101.8 passer rating. Moore has conceded the most receptions (39) and receiving yards (406) out of any slot corner in the NFL. 

Since Week 5, Dan Arnold has led the team in target share (20.6%) with two targets inside the 20-yard line. He’s run a route on 72.1% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks over that stretch. Arnold is pulling off his best Mike Gesicki and Kyle Pitts impression lining up as a wide receiver on 70% of his snaps (55% slot, 15% outside), so he’ll see plenty of linebackers and Moore in coverage. The Colts are 20th in DVOA against the position allowing 544 receiving yards (eighth highest) and six receiving touchdowns (second most). 

Colts

Carson Wentz makes the GPP list this week against Jacksonville. He’s been ultra-consistent in the touchdown department with two or more passing touchdowns in each of his last six games. Over that span the problem has been the passing yardage as Wentz has surpassed 270 yards through the air only twice. This hasn’t crushed his fantasy production though as he has 20 or more DraftKings and FanDuel points in each of his last three games. Jacksonville is 32nd in pass defense DVOA allowing the second-highest yards per attempt (8.3). They have also been wretched against the deep ball giving up the fourth-highest deep completion rate (53.1%) and sixth-most deep passing yards (564) per FTN Data. Wentz has 41 deep attempts (second highest) and the eighth-highest deep passer rating (116.1). 

Jacksonville stacks up as a tough run game opponent on paper. They rank fourth and first in second-level and open-field yards allowed. That said, they have not seen an offensive line as talented as the Colts or a rusher as explosive as Jonathan Taylor so far this season. Indy is ninth in adjusted line yards and top five in second-level (fourth) and open-field yards (first). The Colts are also third in yards before contact per attempt (2.07). Even the great Derrick Henry, who ripped this defense apart with 130 rushing yards (4.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns, has not been as explosive as Taylor. Taylor is 10th in breakaway run rate (Henry 26th) and second in yards created per touch (Henry 43rd). 

Jacksonville has not faced a team with an offensive line inside the top 10 in adjusted line yards. Six of the eight teams they have played are 18th or lower in adjusted line yards. Taylor should rip multiple long runs this week and find success near the goal line. Jacksonville has surrendered the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (ten) and now face the league leader in rushing attempts inside the red zone and 5-yard line. 

Week 9

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Jonathan Taylor 19 7 2 16
Nyheim Hines 6 0 6 14

 

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If Marlon Mack is scratched again, Nyheim Hines is in play for MME. His splits without Mack this season (above, per the FTN Daily splits tool) are notable. Last week he turned his ten touches into 108 total yards and a score. With Taylor owning the red-zone role, Hines is nothing more than a multi-entry play though. The Jaguars are 10th in DVOA against pass-catching backs, allowing only 35 receptions (24th) and 341 receiving yards (15th). 

The two standout pass catchers to consider pairing with Wentz are Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Pittman has seen a 23.2% target share running about 79% of his routes on the perimeter. Pascal has a 16.8% target share playing 79% of his snaps from the slot. In Week 9, Nevin Lawson took over starting slot corner duties. This year he’s allowed a 70% catch rate and 98.8 passer rating in coverage. 

The high-value usage for both of these players is neck and neck. Pittman and Pascal are tied with a 27% end zone target share, and Pittman holds a slight lead in the red-zone target share (28% vs. 25%). Pittman also leads the team in deep targets (13), noting that Pascal is second with seven and led the team in deep targets (three) in Week 9. Pittman could see a shadow from Shaquill Griffin, who has followed the top opposing receiver over the last two weeks. Overall, Griffin isn’t a corner to fear, though, allowing a 69% catch rate and 108.5 passer rating. If Pittman isn’t shadowed, he’ll see an equal amount of Tyson Campbell on the perimeter who is allowing a 77.1% catch rate and 128.0 passer rating. 

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If T.Y. Hilton returns. he is play for MME. In his limited action he’s been targeted on 19.1% of his routes while playing on the outside on about 76% of his routes. He’ll matchup with Griffin and Campbell. 

Weeks 5-9

Player Targets Routes Red zone targets
Jack Doyle 7 88 3
Mo Alie-Cox 15 75 1

The matchup for the Colts’ tight ends is fantastic, with Jacksonville ranking 31st in DVOA against the position, but there’s no clarity here on volume. Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox have continued to trade spots for the weekly lead routes, while Doyle has been more active in the red zone since Week 5. Get your exposure to this position and the matchup by rostering Wentz. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman
GPP only: Carson Wentz, Zach Pascal, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, Jamal Agnew, Nyheim Hines (MME)

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots

NE -2.5, O/U 45

Pace and playcalling

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This game could be the slowest one on the slate. Cleveland is 30th in neutral-script pace while New England sits at 22nd. Both teams will lean on their ground games as well. The Browns continue to feed their running backs weekly with the third-highest neutral script rushing rate (48.1%). New England is a newcomer to the run-heavy ranks. Since Week 4, they have been calling rushing plays at the fourth-highest rate (47.7%). 

Injuries

Cleveland

  • Nick Chubb (RB) – COVID-19 List
  • Demetric Felton (RB) – COVID-19 List
  • John Kelly (RB) – COVID-19 List
  • Nick Harris (OL) – COVID-19 List
  • Greedy Williams (CB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Questionable

New England

  • Damien Harris (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
  • Jalen Mills (DB) – (Thigh – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
  • Jonnu Smith (TE) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
  • Kyle Van Noy (LB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Browns

Baker Mayfield isn’t in play on most weeks for DFS, and Week 10 is no different. Mayfield takes on a New England secondary ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA. The Patriots have allowed the third-lowest adjusted completion rate (69.8%) and sixth fewest passing touchdowns (12). 

The Patriots are not a pushover run defense, but they can be run on. New England ranks 17th in adjusted line yards allowed, 19th in open-field yards. They have allowed the second-highest yards after contact per attempt and sit at 22nd in stuff rate per FTN Data. These metrics matter more to me when looking at the overall quality of a run defense than counting stats which also don’t take into account the strength of the opposing offensive line. Cleveland is top three in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards, so I won’t question their ability to bully a defensive line. New England has already faced three top-10 offensive lines (Dallas, Tampa Bay, New Orleans) in adjusted line yards. The running backs for those teams have averaged 26.3 rushing attempts and 109.3 rushing yards per game with 4.1 yards per carry. That type of volume could be needed here, but with the entire running back room out this week, D’Ernest Johnson could get it. In Week 7, Johnson exploded with 24 touches and 168 total yards. He ran a route on 44.4% of dropbacks in that game, which should rise in Week 10 with the newly signed Brian Hill as his probable backup. The elevated passing-game usage would be fantastic against a Patriots team that struggles to cover running backs. New England ranks 29th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing 61 receptions (fourth most) and 593 receiving yards (second most). 

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I’m only considering Donovan Peoples-Jones from this passing game as an MME play. In Weeks 1 and 9, Peoples-Jones (with no Odell Beckham) was the starting LWR, running a little over half of his routes on that side of the field, which puts him matching up with Jalen Mills. Mills has allowed a 60.5% catch rate and 118.5 passer rating. Peoples-Jones led the team in air yards last week while also finishing second in target share. 

The Brown’s tight end room remains a messy situation to avoid, especially against a Patriots team ranked sixth in DVOA against the position. New England has allowed only 22 receptions and 241 receiving yards to the position. Both of those marks are the lowest in the NFL. 

Weeks 6-9

Player Targets Routes Red zone targets
Austin Hooper 13 72 3
David Njoku 9 63 3
Harrison Bryant 6 37 0

Patriots

New England isn’t a high-flying offense that we look to weekly for double stacks or anything of that nature. This Patriots offense has been the source for mini-stack plays or Damien Harris as running back play all season, which holds in Week 10. 

Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are currently in concussion protocol, but this backfield is a full fade even if they clear before Sunday. The Browns are a top-tier run defense, ranking seventh in adjusted line yards, third in second-level yards, and sixth in open field yards allowed. Cleveland has allowed 763 rushing yards (fifth lowest) with the sixth-highest stuff rate (52.2%). 

This week’s only viable ministack partner for New England is Jakobi Meyers, but even he is only a large-field play. Meyers leads the team with a 23.8% target share and 30.2% of the team’s air yards. Before last week’s four-target dud, he was averaging 8.5 targets per game. Meyers is second on the team in deep targets (nine), which could prove useful against a Brown’s secondary ranked 28th in DVOA against deep passing. He’ll run about 66% of his routes from the slot against Troy Hill, allowing a 70.6% catch rate and 103.8 passer rating. 

Hunter Henry is a touchdown or bust play that’s likely to bust this week. Henry has scored in five of his last six games, but he hasn’t surpassed four targets and 33 receiving yards since Week 5. The Browns are 11th in DVOA against the position allowing 36 receptions (23rd) and 368 receiving yards (24th). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: D’Ernest Johnson
GPP only: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jakobi Meyers

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

BUF -12.5, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

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This game could be a sneaky one for play volume. Currently, our offensive efficiency tool has this contest as fifth best for projected pace. The Bills are sixth in neutral-script pace. The path for play-volume ceiling lies with Buffalo gaining a sizable lead early. Since Week 5, New York is 10th in negative-script pace. Any added volume will flow through both passing games. Buffalo is first in neutral-script passing rate (67.1%) while the Jets 15th in trailing passing rate (71.4%).

Injuries

Buffalo

  • Tremaine Edmunds (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
  • Dawson Knox (TE) – (Hand – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
  • Zack Moss (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

New York

  • Tevin Coleman (RB) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) – (Toe – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
  • Corey Davis (WR) – (Hip – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Bills

OK, so let’s try this again. Josh Allen smash week hopes remain despite him flopping in Week 9. He failed to surpass 13 fantasy points on either DraftKings or FanDuel last week as the Bills only put up six points in an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville. The Jets should allow Allen to post a top-tier fantasy outing this week. New York is 30th in pass defense DVOA. They have allowed a 72.2% adjusted completion rate and 8.0 yards per attempt, which are both the sixth-highest marks in the league. Over their last four games, this secondary has let Joe Burrow, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan complete 69.7% of their passes, averaging 291 passing yards with 8.0 yards per attempt. Wentz and Burrow both tossed three scores as well. 

The matchup is nice for the Bills’ running backs, with New York allowing the most fantasy points per game (31.2) to opposing running backs. The Jets have surrendered 1,067 rushing yards (tenth-most), 15 rushing touchdowns (most in the NFL), and the third-highest gash rate (13.8%) per FTN Data. Zack Moss is questionable at best to play this week as he recovers from a concussion. In Weeks 3-8, he has been the lead back for the offense playing 55-74% of the snaps, but sadly only averaging 13.6 touches and 68.2 total yards per game with two total touchdowns. He hasn’t crossed 15 fantasy points scored since Week 2.

Weeks 3-8

Player Rushing attempts Red-zone opportunities Targets Routes
Zack Moss 54 19 19 104
Devin Singletary  43 7 11 74
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If Moss misses, Devin Singletary will operate as the lead back, but his numbers over the last two seasons without Moss have not seen a massive bump. This leaves both backs as only large field or leverage plays despite the mouth-watering matchup. 

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