Week 10 Game-by-Game DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the game-by-game DFS breakdown for Week 10 of the NFL season. In this writeup, I’ll walk you through the players, stacks, one-offs, etc., that I’ll be targeting weekly in DFS. My aim here is that you can apply this encyclopedia of stats and my word vomit to a variety of sites and contests with everything from cash to your GPP entries.

With plenty of words ahead to peruse, let’s dive into this week’s action. 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys

DAL -9, O/U 55

Pace and playcalling

This game will be one of the faster ones on the main slate. The Cowboys are eighth in neutral-script pace, followed by the Falcons that sit at 11th. The passing rate should also be healthy here. Both teams have been trending up in this department. Atlanta is 11th in neutral passing rate (58.9%) for the season. Since Week 5, Dallas is also leaning on the aerial attack, ranking 12th (59.2%) in passing percentage in close games.

Injuries

Atlanta

• No notable injury designations

Dallas

• Amari Cooper (WR) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Ezekiel Elliot (RB) – (Knee – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Randy Gregory (DE) – (Calf – LP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Tyron Smith (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Cedrick Wilson (WR) – (Shoulder – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Falcons

As nauseating as it seems, Matt Ryan is in play for GPPs this week. Crazy to say, but Ryan has been quite good in the last five games. Over that span he has four games weeks with 283 or more passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns. He’s surpassed 21 fantasy points in three of his last five games. Dallas is tied for the fifth-most turnovers generated, but for our purposes that matters little. The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game (19.5) to opposing quarterbacks. They have given up 7.8 yards per attempt (10th) while showing a vulnerability to play-action passing. Dan Quinn’s defense has surrendered a 7.8% passing touchdown rate (seventh) and a 74.6% adjusted completion rate (third highest) on play-action throws. With Arthur Smith calling the shots play-action has been a staple for Atlanta. Ryan has 87 play-action dropbacks (11th) in only eight games. He’s been surgical on play-action passes with the second-highest adjusted completion rate (78.3%).

Despite the hollow window dressing of rushing attempts, Mike Davis isn’t rosterable with his nonexistent red-zone role. We again turn our attention to Cordarrelle Patterson. Since Week 5, he’s averaging 16.5 touches and 95.7 total yards per game. Last week, he played 56.8% of his snaps at running back and 28% at wide receiver. Patterson should have ample opportunities to make plays in all facets of the game against a defense that since Week 5 is ranked 25th and 28th in explosive rush and pass rates allowed. The Cowboys have given up the eight highest gash rate (12.3%) and fantasy points to wide receivers (26.4). Patterson is a strong play regardless of the role he is playing snap to snap. 

Weeks 7-9

Over the last two weeks, Kyle Pitts has led the team with a 22.5% target share and 37.5% air yard share. In that stretch since Calvin Ridley’s departure, Pitts has played 83.9% (45.2% slot, 38.7% outside) of his snaps as a wide receiver. Pitts will match up with Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown when outside and Jourdan Lewis when he’s in the slot. Diggs has shadowed on four occasions this season, but not since Week 5. Diggs isn’t likely to follow Pitts, especially with his high slot rate. Diggs has played 8.7% of his snaps in the slot overall this season and only four snaps inside over his last four games. Diggs is allowing a 54.7% catch rate and 69.8 passer rating. Brown is conceding a 59.3% catch rate and 85.9 passer rating. Lewis allows a 69.7% catch rate and 89.2 passer rating.

Last week Pitts, Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe were the only full-time receivers running 27-30 routes. Olamide Zaccheaus only ran 19 routes while drawing three targets, so don’t chase his two-touchdown performance in Week 10. Russell Gage has drawn a 14% target share and zero red-zone targets in the last two weeks. He’ll run about 53% of his routes from the slot against Lewis. The stacking options (in order of GPP interest) are Pitts and then Patterson. Gage doesn’t make the cut with his lack of a red-zone role. 

Cowboys

The Falcons remain one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (28th in DVOA), and with the Cowboys’ rising passing rates, we can go back to Dak Prescott as a DFS option. The Falcons are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.9) to opposing quarterbacks. Much of this is due to allowing 17 passing touchdowns (third-most) and downfield production. Atlanta is 25th in DVOA against deep passing, surrendering the ninth-highest deep completion rate (44.8%). Prescott is 13th in deep passing rate (12.9%) with five deep passing touchdowns (tied for second-most). Prescott makes core plays this week. 

**Update: Elliott’s full practice on Friday is reassuring for his outlook for this weekend. He’s a leverage play this week and nothing more.**

We’ll have to monitor Ezekiel Elliott’s practice reports this week. Elliott sustained a knee injury during last week’s game that led to him matching a season-low in touches with 13 and playing on 53% snaps. This isn’t a glittering matchup on the ground for Dallas. While Atlanta allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game (21.0) to opposing running backs, other underlying metrics aren’t as kind. Atlanta has the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the third-lowest gash rate allowed. The Falcons have hemorrhaged production to pass-catching backs, and Elliott does fit the bill there with his 13.6% target share over the last three weeks. If (or when) Prescott and the passing attack becomes popular, Elliott is a fine leverage play if he is going to be a full-go. If he’s limited all week and possibly a 50-55% snap player, he’s an easy fade. 

Week 9

Weeks 5-8

If Michael Gallup returns this week, he’ll move into the starting LWR role and move around the formation. He played 60% of the snaps in his only game before the injury, drawing a 12% target share. Gallup will run about 90% of his routes on the outside against Fabian Moreau and A.J. Terrell. Moreau is allowing a 62.5% catch rate and 120.6 passer rating. Terrell has continued his stellar play for Atlanta allowing a 46.4% catch rate and 65.2 passer rating. If Gallup returns to the starting lineup, CeeDee Lamb should take over the primary slot receiver role. In Week 1, he played the slot 40% of his snaps which could have arguably been higher if Gallup had played the entire game. Lamb leads the team with a 22% target share, 32% of the team’s air yards, and a 24% first read share. Lamb will match up against Avery Williams in the slot. Williams is conceding a 66.7% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating. Amari Cooper will run about 70% of his routes on the outside against Moreau and Terrell. Cooper has been the team’s preferred red zone (22%) and end zone target (23%). Cooper and Lamb are tied for the team lead with 15 deep targets. 

Last week with no Blake Jarwin (IR), Dalton Schultz ran a route on 90.6% of Prescott’s dropbacks. He’s garnered an 18.6% target share this year with a 9% red zone target share. His red-zone volume is tied for fifth on Dallas with Malik Turner and Blake Jarwin. Atlanta is an average to below-average matchup for the tight end position. The Falcons are 18th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders), allowing 40 receptions (19th) and 417 receiving yards (19th). Schultz is viable in a game stack. His red-zone role is too puny, and the matchup isn’t eye-popping enough to put him in the mini-stack conversation or one-off territory. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb/Amari Cooper (prefer single stacking one with Prescott), Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts
GPP only: Michael Gallup (leverage if Cooper or Lamb become chalk), Dalton Schultz (game stack only), Matt Ryan

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

TEN -2.5, O/U 44

Pace and playcalling

At first glance, this game looks like a disgustingly slow rushing extravaganza, but recent developments could flip that on its head. After playing like a slug all season, Sean Payton has finally broken that mold over the last two weeks. Since Week 8, the Saints are 11th in neural-script pace. Their passing rate remains low (25th, 52.2%), but the increased pace can help. 

In their first game without Derrick Henry, the Titans changed the diagram, ranking eighth in natural passing rate (63.6%) after sitting at 54.0% (25th) in Weeks 1-8. They remain a below-average play volume team ranking 20th in pace in neutral situations. 

Injuries

New Orleans

• Alvin Kamara (RB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• C.J. Gardner-Johnson (CB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Terron Armstead (OL) – (Knee/Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Tennessee

• Bud Dupree (LB) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Chris Jackson (CB) – (Foot – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Harold Landry (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Jeffery Simmons (DT) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Rashaan Evans (LB) – (Ankle – LP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Julio Jones (WR) – (Hamstring – / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Saints

The only options on New Orleans worth discussing for DFS are the ground game and Tre’Quan Smith. With Alvin Kamra out, Mark Ingram will lead the rushing attack this week. The Titans are ranked 26th in adjusted line yards and 18th in second-level and open-field yards allowed. They have given up the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt. They are an average to slightly above average for opposing rushers. Most of the production against this defense should be expected from what these backs do on the ground because they are eighth in DVOA against pass-catching backs. The target volume can help, but don’t expect big numbers through the air for either player. 

Weeks 8-9

In Weeks 1-6, the Titans started out pummeling opposing ground games, allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate. Since Week 7, though, they have been much more giving, ranking 24th in explosive run rate allowed. The coincides with facing the Chiefs, Rams and Colts, who all have top-shelf offensive lines. This year, the Saints are not playing up to that level in 19th in yards before contact per attempt and 26th or lower in second-level and open-field yards. The efficiency might not be there for Ingram, but he projects as a core play and cash viable with Kamara out. Ingram ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel, 1.6x SuperDraft) is in line for 15-20 touches with nearly all the red-zone work against a 24th-ranked red-zone rush defense. 

Marquez Callaway has seen a 14% target share with Trevor Siemian under center, but if Kristian Fulton makes his return this week, that’s not a matchup to attack. Callaway would run about 53% of his routes against Fulton, allowing a 39% catch rate and 72.2 passer rating. Deonte Harris might lead all wideouts in target share with Siemian, but he hasn’t been a full-time player. He’s averaged 18.5 routes per game over his last two, so if the routes or the high target per route numbers take a dip, he’s a trap. Tre’Quan Smith has only drawn a 9.5% target share, but he’s second among the wideouts in routes (66), playing 80% snaps last week. Since returning to the starting lineup, he leads the team in slot snaps (66) and draws a plus corner matchup. He’ll draw either Elijah Molden or Chris Jackson in the slot. Molden is allowing a 72.7% catch rate and 122.3 passer rating. Jackson is allowing only a 60% catch rate and 72.9 passer rating in slot coverage this season, but he gave up an 83.3% catch rate (24 targets) and 131.1 passer rating in the same role last season. 

Titans

With the Titans’ increased passing rate last week and the New Orleans Saints’ recent vulnerabilities, Ryan Tannehill returns to the GPP conversation. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan have destroyed this secondary after the Saints started the season with a cakewalk quarterback schedule, including Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke and Geno Smith in the last two weeks. Brady and Ryan completed 72.8% of their passes, averaging 359 passing yards with 10.2 yards per attempt. Tannehill can recreate this type of performance through play-action passing Sunday. This season, the Saints have allowed 9.2 yards per attempt (10th highest) and a 7.2% passing touchdown rate (ninth highest) on play-action throws. Both of Ryan’s touchdown passes in Week 9 came on play-action throws. Tannehill is ninth in play-action dropbacks with the eighth-highest yards per attempt (9.3) on these play designs. With New Orleans’ elite run defense, this is a pass funnel matchup. 

The Titans’ backfield without Derrick Henry dissolved into a three-way committee with Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman all seeing at least five touches. The Saints are top four in every defensive line yard metric I care about and have allowed the fewest rushing yards (590) in the NFL. Don’t roster a Titans’ running back in Week 10. 

Brown has dominated the passing work in the last three games that A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have been active (Weeks 6, 7 and 9). He’s seen a ridiculous 37% target share (63.6% of the team’s air yards), averaging 9.6 targets and 88.6 receiving yards per game. Brown has played RWR about 39% of his snaps while also running out of the slot on about 39%. This would match him up with Paulson Adebo and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (if active) for most of the game. Marshon Lattimore has shadowed three times this season, so it’s possible he does this week, but it’s unlikely with Julio Jones on the other side. Adebo is allowing a 64.3% catch rate and 109.9 passer rating. Gardner-Johnson is giving up a 73.3% catch rate and 97.6 passer rating in slot coverage. If Gardner-Johnson is out, then P.J. Williams will cover Brown when he rolls inside. Williams has allowed all eight of his targets to be secured this season while covering the slot with a 102.1 passer rating. 

Julio Jones has only seen a 16.6% target share and two red-zone targets over his last three games. Jones hasn’t seen more than five targets since Week 2. He’s averaged a paltry 4.3 targets, three receptions, and 44 receiving yards since Week 6. He’ll run about 55% of his routes against Lattimore if he doesn’t shadow Brown. Lattimore has had equal amounts of stellar and shaky play this season, allowing a 52.1% catch rate but also giving up five receiving touchdowns and a 114.8 passer rating. For Jones, at this juncture, it’s more of a question of health than effectiveness. Among 98 wide receivers with 20 or more targets this season, Jones is 16th in yards per route run (2.18), immediately behind Tyreek Hill and Diontae Johnson. Jones is a leverage play off Brown or a large field GPP target. His mid-week hamstring issue could take him out of play for me in GPPs depending how Friday’s practice and his designation are set. 

**Update: Jones injury worries me enough to cut him out of the GPP pool for this week.**

The Saints have been second in DVOA against the tight end position in the last two seasons, so don’t bother with the Titans’ tight end crapshoot. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: A.J. Brown, Mark Ingram
GPP only: Ryan Tannehill, Tre’Quan Smith

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

IND -10.5, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

This game environment won’t surprise anyone as one that projects to limp along. The Jaguars are 14th in neutral pace, but the Colts will tie an anchor to their paws at 26th. We flip the script when we look at passing rates, though. Jacksonville has been a run-oriented offense under Urban Meyer, passing on 55.0% (23rd) of their plays when the score is within reach. With a healthier Cason Wentz, the Colts have passed more and now sit at 12th in neutral passing (58.7%) percentage. 

Injuries

Jacksonville

• James Robinson (RB0 – (Heel – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Indianapolis

• Xavier Rhodes (CB) – (Calf – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• DeForest Buckner (DT) – (Back – / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence isn’t in play for GPPs. He’s only surpassed 280 passing yards twice this season and he hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 1. The match up with the Colts’ secondary is a good one though, so we can look to the Jaguars for stacking partners. Indy is allowing a 77.0% adjusted completion rate (seventh highest), 8.0 yards per attempt (sixth highest), and the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (23). 

James Robinson sounds like he could return this week. In Weeks 4-6, after he reclaimed his every-down role (68-95% snaps), Robinson averaged 20 touches and 101.7 total yards per game. With Robinson possibly less than 100%, it can’t be ruled out he is staring down a role more similar to Weeks 1-3 (59-63% of snaps in two of those three games). Whether it’s Robinson or Carlos Hyde starting in the backfield this week, I’m not interested in the Jaguars’ ground game against a defense ranked second in rush DVOA. The Colts have the 10th-highest stuff rate per FTN Data. This defense has also been stout inside the 20, ranking eighth in red-zone run defense allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns (two) in the NFL. 

There’s a variety of pass-catching options to look at for Jacksonville for runbacks or mini-stack partners, with Marvin Jones, Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold each standing out. Since Week 5, Jones has seen an 18% target share and three red-zone targets running about 66% of his routes on the outside. Jones leads the team with eight end-zone targets (fourth in the NFL) and a 28% red-zone target share. Jones will match up with Isaiah Rodgers and Rock Ya-Sin on the outside. Ya-Sin has been his usual burnable self giving up a 69.2% catch rate and 114.6 passer rating. Rodgers is allowing a 63% catch rate and 67.7 passer rating in coverage.

Since taking over as the starting slot receiver in Week 5 (73.6% slot), Jamal Agnew has drawn a 16.6% target share and three red-zone looks. He will match up with a corner we have picked on all year in Kenny Moore. Moore is giving up a 76.9% catch rate and 101.8 passer rating. Moore has conceded the most receptions (39) and receiving yards (406) out of any slot corner in the NFL. 

Since Week 5, Dan Arnold has led the team in target share (20.6%) with two targets inside the 20-yard line. He’s run a route on 72.1% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks over that stretch. Arnold is pulling off his best Mike Gesicki and Kyle Pitts impression lining up as a wide receiver on 70% of his snaps (55% slot, 15% outside), so he’ll see plenty of linebackers and Moore in coverage. The Colts are 20th in DVOA against the position allowing 544 receiving yards (eighth highest) and six receiving touchdowns (second most). 

Colts

Carson Wentz makes the GPP list this week against Jacksonville. He’s been ultra-consistent in the touchdown department with two or more passing touchdowns in each of his last six games. Over that span the problem has been the passing yardage as Wentz has surpassed 270 yards through the air only twice. This hasn’t crushed his fantasy production though as he has 20 or more DraftKings and FanDuel points in each of his last three games. Jacksonville is 32nd in pass defense DVOA allowing the second-highest yards per attempt (8.3). They have also been wretched against the deep ball giving up the fourth-highest deep completion rate (53.1%) and sixth-most deep passing yards (564) per FTN Data. Wentz has 41 deep attempts (second highest) and the eighth-highest deep passer rating (116.1). 

Jacksonville stacks up as a tough run game opponent on paper. They rank fourth and first in second-level and open-field yards allowed. That said, they have not seen an offensive line as talented as the Colts or a rusher as explosive as Jonathan Taylor so far this season. Indy is ninth in adjusted line yards and top five in second-level (fourth) and open-field yards (first). The Colts are also third in yards before contact per attempt (2.07). Even the great Derrick Henry, who ripped this defense apart with 130 rushing yards (4.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns, has not been as explosive as Taylor. Taylor is 10th in breakaway run rate (Henry 26th) and second in yards created per touch (Henry 43rd). 

Jacksonville has not faced a team with an offensive line inside the top 10 in adjusted line yards. Six of the eight teams they have played are 18th or lower in adjusted line yards. Taylor should rip multiple long runs this week and find success near the goal line. Jacksonville has surrendered the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (ten) and now face the league leader in rushing attempts inside the red zone and 5-yard line. 

Week 9

If Marlon Mack is scratched again, Nyheim Hines is in play for MME. His splits without Mack this season (above, per the FTN Daily splits tool) are notable. Last week he turned his ten touches into 108 total yards and a score. With Taylor owning the red-zone role, Hines is nothing more than a multi-entry play though. The Jaguars are 10th in DVOA against pass-catching backs, allowing only 35 receptions (24th) and 341 receiving yards (15th). 

The two standout pass catchers to consider pairing with Wentz are Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Pittman has seen a 23.2% target share running about 79% of his routes on the perimeter. Pascal has a 16.8% target share playing 79% of his snaps from the slot. In Week 9, Nevin Lawson took over starting slot corner duties. This year he’s allowed a 70% catch rate and 98.8 passer rating in coverage. 

The high-value usage for both of these players is neck and neck. Pittman and Pascal are tied with a 27% end zone target share, and Pittman holds a slight lead in the red-zone target share (28% vs. 25%). Pittman also leads the team in deep targets (13), noting that Pascal is second with seven and led the team in deep targets (three) in Week 9. Pittman could see a shadow from Shaquill Griffin, who has followed the top opposing receiver over the last two weeks. Overall, Griffin isn’t a corner to fear, though, allowing a 69% catch rate and 108.5 passer rating. If Pittman isn’t shadowed, he’ll see an equal amount of Tyson Campbell on the perimeter who is allowing a 77.1% catch rate and 128.0 passer rating. 

If T.Y. Hilton returns. he is play for MME. In his limited action he’s been targeted on 19.1% of his routes while playing on the outside on about 76% of his routes. He’ll matchup with Griffin and Campbell. 

Weeks 5-9

The matchup for the Colts’ tight ends is fantastic, with Jacksonville ranking 31st in DVOA against the position, but there’s no clarity here on volume. Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox have continued to trade spots for the weekly lead routes, while Doyle has been more active in the red zone since Week 5. Get your exposure to this position and the matchup by rostering Wentz. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman
GPP only: Carson Wentz, Zach Pascal, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, Jamal Agnew, Nyheim Hines (MME)

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots

NE -2.5, O/U 45

Pace and playcalling

This game could be the slowest one on the slate. Cleveland is 30th in neutral-script pace while New England sits at 22nd. Both teams will lean on their ground games as well. The Browns continue to feed their running backs weekly with the third-highest neutral script rushing rate (48.1%). New England is a newcomer to the run-heavy ranks. Since Week 4, they have been calling rushing plays at the fourth-highest rate (47.7%). 

Injuries

Cleveland

• Nick Chubb (RB) – COVID-19 List
• Demetric Felton (RB) – COVID-19 List
• John Kelly (RB) – COVID-19 List
• Nick Harris (OL) – COVID-19 List
• Greedy Williams (CB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Questionable

New England

• Damien Harris (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Jalen Mills (DB) – (Thigh – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jonnu Smith (TE) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kyle Van Noy (LB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Browns

Baker Mayfield isn’t in play on most weeks for DFS, and Week 10 is no different. Mayfield takes on a New England secondary ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA. The Patriots have allowed the third-lowest adjusted completion rate (69.8%) and sixth fewest passing touchdowns (12). 

The Patriots are not a pushover run defense, but they can be run on. New England ranks 17th in adjusted line yards allowed, 19th in open-field yards. They have allowed the second-highest yards after contact per attempt and sit at 22nd in stuff rate per FTN Data. These metrics matter more to me when looking at the overall quality of a run defense than counting stats which also don’t take into account the strength of the opposing offensive line. Cleveland is top three in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards, so I won’t question their ability to bully a defensive line. New England has already faced three top-10 offensive lines (Dallas, Tampa Bay, New Orleans) in adjusted line yards. The running backs for those teams have averaged 26.3 rushing attempts and 109.3 rushing yards per game with 4.1 yards per carry. That type of volume could be needed here, but with the entire running back room out this week, D’Ernest Johnson could get it. In Week 7, Johnson exploded with 24 touches and 168 total yards. He ran a route on 44.4% of dropbacks in that game, which should rise in Week 10 with the newly signed Brian Hill as his probable backup. The elevated passing-game usage would be fantastic against a Patriots team that struggles to cover running backs. New England ranks 29th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing 61 receptions (fourth most) and 593 receiving yards (second most). 

I’m only considering Donovan Peoples-Jones from this passing game as an MME play. In Weeks 1 and 9, Peoples-Jones (with no Odell Beckham) was the starting LWR, running a little over half of his routes on that side of the field, which puts him matching up with Jalen Mills. Mills has allowed a 60.5% catch rate and 118.5 passer rating. Peoples-Jones led the team in air yards last week while also finishing second in target share. 

The Brown’s tight end room remains a messy situation to avoid, especially against a Patriots team ranked sixth in DVOA against the position. New England has allowed only 22 receptions and 241 receiving yards to the position. Both of those marks are the lowest in the NFL. 

Weeks 6-9

Patriots

New England isn’t a high-flying offense that we look to weekly for double stacks or anything of that nature. This Patriots offense has been the source for mini-stack plays or Damien Harris as running back play all season, which holds in Week 10. 

Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are currently in concussion protocol, but this backfield is a full fade even if they clear before Sunday. The Browns are a top-tier run defense, ranking seventh in adjusted line yards, third in second-level yards, and sixth in open field yards allowed. Cleveland has allowed 763 rushing yards (fifth lowest) with the sixth-highest stuff rate (52.2%). 

This week’s only viable ministack partner for New England is Jakobi Meyers, but even he is only a large-field play. Meyers leads the team with a 23.8% target share and 30.2% of the team’s air yards. Before last week’s four-target dud, he was averaging 8.5 targets per game. Meyers is second on the team in deep targets (nine), which could prove useful against a Brown’s secondary ranked 28th in DVOA against deep passing. He’ll run about 66% of his routes from the slot against Troy Hill, allowing a 70.6% catch rate and 103.8 passer rating. 

Hunter Henry is a touchdown or bust play that’s likely to bust this week. Henry has scored in five of his last six games, but he hasn’t surpassed four targets and 33 receiving yards since Week 5. The Browns are 11th in DVOA against the position allowing 36 receptions (23rd) and 368 receiving yards (24th). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: D’Ernest Johnson
GPP only: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jakobi Meyers

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

BUF -12.5, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

This game could be a sneaky one for play volume. Currently, our offensive efficiency tool has this contest as fifth best for projected pace. The Bills are sixth in neutral-script pace. The path for play-volume ceiling lies with Buffalo gaining a sizable lead early. Since Week 5, New York is 10th in negative-script pace. Any added volume will flow through both passing games. Buffalo is first in neutral-script passing rate (67.1%) while the Jets 15th in trailing passing rate (71.4%).

Injuries

Buffalo

• Tremaine Edmunds (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Dawson Knox (TE) – (Hand – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Zack Moss (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

New York

• Tevin Coleman (RB) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) – (Toe – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Corey Davis (WR) – (Hip – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Bills

OK, so let’s try this again. Josh Allen smash week hopes remain despite him flopping in Week 9. He failed to surpass 13 fantasy points on either DraftKings or FanDuel last week as the Bills only put up six points in an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville. The Jets should allow Allen to post a top-tier fantasy outing this week. New York is 30th in pass defense DVOA. They have allowed a 72.2% adjusted completion rate and 8.0 yards per attempt, which are both the sixth-highest marks in the league. Over their last four games, this secondary has let Joe Burrow, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan complete 69.7% of their passes, averaging 291 passing yards with 8.0 yards per attempt. Wentz and Burrow both tossed three scores as well. 

The matchup is nice for the Bills’ running backs, with New York allowing the most fantasy points per game (31.2) to opposing running backs. The Jets have surrendered 1,067 rushing yards (tenth-most), 15 rushing touchdowns (most in the NFL), and the third-highest gash rate (13.8%) per FTN Data. Zack Moss is questionable at best to play this week as he recovers from a concussion. In Weeks 3-8, he has been the lead back for the offense playing 55-74% of the snaps, but sadly only averaging 13.6 touches and 68.2 total yards per game with two total touchdowns. He hasn’t crossed 15 fantasy points scored since Week 2.

Weeks 3-8

If Moss misses, Devin Singletary will operate as the lead back, but his numbers over the last two seasons without Moss have not seen a massive bump. This leaves both backs as only large field or leverage plays despite the mouth-watering matchup. 

While the Stefon Diggs target share is down (29%, 2020) from last season his air yard share (35%) and red zone target share (19%) are in the same neighborhood. The fact that Diggs has only one 100 yard receiving game this season has been a result of this offense coming back to earth this season after setting the league ablaze last season. With all that said there’s no reason Diggs can’t erupt this week. He’ll run 77% of his routes on the perimeter against Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols. Hall is allowing a 62.2% catch rate and 115.1 passer rating. Echols has also been a fantasy point-allowing machine, giving up a 64.8% catch rate and 97.2 passer rating. 

If you’re looking for a secondary receiver to target on the Bills in Allen stacks, mini stacks or a one-off I lean Cole Beasley over Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders has operated as the field stretching option in this offense leading the team with 16 deep targets. He’s third among the trio in first read share but leads the team in air yard share and end zone target share. The Jets are a team that like many before them will force Buffalo to attack underneath. They are 21st (37.1%) in deep completion rate allowed but 31st in DVOA against short passing. 

Beasley leads the team with a 28% target share over the last two weeks without Dawson Knox while also seeing his numbers skyrocket across the board. Beasley will run about 87% of his routes from the slot against Michael Carter. Since Week 5, Carter has allowed significant production to opposing slot receivers giving up a 76.5% catch rate and 112.1 passer rating. 

**Update: Sweeney wasn’t in play, but Knox might make his return this week. Monitor the discord for how we pivot if Knox is a go.**

Gabriel Davis and Tommy Sweeney don’t make the GPP radar this week. Without Knox, Gabriel Davis’ snaps have not changed as he’s still played on only 28-44% of snaps seeing an 8% target share. Sweeney has seen a drastic increase in playing time, but the target volume hasn’t followed. He has played 82-87% of snaps running a route on 78% of Allen’s dropbacks but still averaged 3 targets, 2.5 receptions and 20 receiving yards per game.

Jets

It’s a difficult conversation talking yourself into rostering a Jets player against the Bills. Buffalo ranks first in pass defense DVOA and third against the rush. Currently, Michael Carter is the only player in consideration for the Jets. The softest spot in the Bills’ defense is against the run, and I also want to note that they are still very good against running backs. Buffalo has allowed 2.51 yards after contact per attempt (13th-highest), and they are 22nd in open-field yards allowed. Carter is the safest source for volume in the Jets’ offense averaging 19 touches and 120.6 total yards since Week 7. He has seen a 25.5% (11.5 targets per game) from Mike White.

Weeks 7-9

If Taron Johnson gets ruled out, I’ll possibly revisit Jamison Crowder during my update of this article. I have no interest in Corey Davis or Elijah Moore against these Bills’ outside corners. Tre’Davious White is allowing a 52% catch rate and 66.8 passer rating. Levi Wallace has been just as good, giving up only a 59.5% catch rate and 80.5 passer rating. Between the two of them, opposing receivers have only scored two touchdowns. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley
GPP only: Michael Carter

Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -8.5, O/U 42.5

Pace and playcalling

This is another slugfest with two teams that crawl from a pace perspective. Detroit is 27th in neutral-script pace. The Steelers have slowed to 24th in close games since Week 5. The Lions prefer to hide Jared Goff (seventh in neutral rushing rate, 46.1%), but they will throw a ton if they get down as this line suggests. Detroit is seventh in negative script passing rate (76.5%). Pittsburgh has been leaning on Najee Harris with the fifth-highest rushing rate (48.2%) over their last four games. 

Injuries

Detroit

• Jamaal Williams (RB) – (Thigh – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Pittsburgh

• Chase Claypool (WR) – (Toe – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Lions

Jared Goff has not scored above 20 fantasy points since his outlier performance in Week 1. Goff will crumble against the Steelers pass rush (third highest pressure rate) as he is currently 29th in pressured completion rate. If you read my showdown article for the Bears and Steelers game, you already know Pittsburgh struggles to cover deep, ranking seventh in deep completion rate allowed and first in deep passer rating allowed. This week, they can rest easy as Goff is 30th in deep completion rate and ranks 26th in deep-ball attempts. 

Jamaal Williams isn’t in play even if he’s active. D’Andre Swift is also not making the GPP pool this week. Swift has been amazing this season as the RB9 ranking first in targets and fourth in weighted opportunity among running backs. This isn’t the week to look to him for DFS glory, though. The Steelers have given up big plays on the ground (fifth-highest gash rate allowed), but there are real concerns for Swift to be able to take advantage of that. The Lions’ offensive line is 21st and 29th in second-level yards and open-field yards, so the likelihood of Swift ripping off chunk gains is slim. For as good as Swift has been, he has not been an elusive runner. Among 48 running backs with 50 or more rushing attempts, Swift ranks 47th in yards after contact per attempt ahead of only Darrel Williams. With his 19.8% target share (first among running backs), he can rack up dump-offs, but don’t expect him to do much with them. The Steelers have allowed only 33 receptions (26th) and 296 receiving yards (22nd) to opposing backs.

None of the Lions are appealing options for DFS this week, so I’ll likely be looking to the Steelers as one-offs, but if you’re looking for a mini-stack option in larger fields, it’s Kalif Raymond. I’ve discussed Goff’s struggles against pressure and with deep passing, but if there’s one player on the Lions that can get behind the defense for a long score, it’s Raymond. Since Week 6, he’s seen a 15.3% target share running about 65% of his routes on the outside. He’ll draw Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton in coverage when on the perimeter. Haden is allowing a 65.5% catch rate and a 106.7 passer rating. Sutton has been equally beatable, giving up a 70.6% catch rate and 108.1 passer rating. Raymond leads the team in deep targets with eight. 

Despite T.J. Hockenson’s 30% target share since Week 6, I’m avoiding him this week. The Steelers have defended, receiving tight ends well, holding Darren Waller, Noah Fant and Cole Kmet to an average of 6.3 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 57.3 receiving yards per game with zero touchdowns. Overall, they have allowed only 39 receptions (20th) and two receiving touchdowns (24th) to the position. Hockenson’s price as the TE2 on DraftKings ($5,500) and FanDuel ($6,500) is steep considering the matchup. 

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t come close to sniffing the exposure list this week. The matchup is amazing for the offense as a whole, with Detroit ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass and 25th against the ground game, but Roethlisberger has no ceiling. He’s only topped 280 passing yards and thrown for multiple touchdowns twice this season. He’s still yet to log a week with 20 or more fantasy points. The Lions have allowed 9.3 yards per attempt (32nd) and a 79.1% adjusted completion rate (second highest), so we can look to this game for one-offs. 

With the rising rushing rate Matt Canada knows where his bread is buttered and that’s in Najee Harris’ kitchen. Harris has an elite role in this Steeler’s offense with 26.4 touches, 116.9 total yards, and 0.9 touchdowns per game since Week 3. He leads all running backs with 77% of the teams’ red-zone rushing share (17 red-zone rushing attempts) while tying Aaron Jones for the league lead in red-zone targets (10). The Lions have given up 1,076 rushing yards (eighth highest), 2.6 yards after contact per attempt (sixth highest), and ten rushing scores (fifth highest). Detroit is 28th in red-zone rushing defense and 32nd in DVOA against pass-catching backs. Regardless of which way you slice it Harris is due for a monster day. Harris popping up with a midweek foot issue does bear watching. 

**Update: Harris carries no injury designation with this game. Play him as you usually do.**

With Chase Claypool taking care of a throbbing toe and week to week, the Steelers will trot out a starting trio of Diontae Johnson, James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud. When Johnson has been on the field, he’s continued as a target vacuum with a 27.7% target share and 37% of the team’s air yards. He’s averaged 9.9 targets, 6.4 receptions, and 75.7 receiving yards per game. Since Week 8, he has run nearly all of his routes (97.4%) on the perimeter, so he’ll see Amani Oruwariye and Jerry Jacobs all game. Oruwairye has conceded a 70% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating. Jacobs has been an easier target allowing a 68.4% catch rate and 118.5 passer rating. Johnson makes core plays this week. 

Washington will operate on the outside opposite Johnson. He returns to the perimeter after serving as the team’s starting slot receiver, which is a role McCloud will operate in this week. Washington has only seen a 6.8% target share this season, so he’s only in play for MME. He is third on the team with four deep targets, so there’s upside here against a team ranked 32nd in DVOA against deep passing. McCloud is too thin of a play. He’s only seen a 5.4% target share, and while that’s not much different than Washington, he has only one deep target. The team could also move Pat Freiermuth, Eric Ebron (if back) and Harris into the slot at times, as they have each played 11.4-29.3% of their snaps in the slot this season. 

Freiermuth’s splits with Ebron active are notable. In Weeks 1-6, with Ebron active, Freiermuth’s routes and routes per dropback were massively different from the last two games. Without Ebron, Freiermuth ran a route on 71.4% of Roethlisberger’s dropbacks with a 21% target share (Weeks 1-6, 8.5% target share). Freiermuth is in play against the Lions (29th in DVOA) only if Ebron is out. Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert averaged seven targets, 5.5 receptions, and 90.5 receiving yards against this defense. Freiermuth could get a bump without Claypool, but Ebron will still hinder his production. 

Weeks 1-6

DFS Plays

Core plays: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson
GPP only: James Washington, Pat Freiermuth (if Ebron out)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team

TB -9, O/U 51

Pace and playcalling

If you’re looking for a pace-up game, this is one of the best this week. Currently, our offensive efficiency tool has this game as the second-fastest for Sunday. The Buccaneers are 13th in neutral pace while Washington is fifth. Tom Brady keeps chucking it at a ridiculous clip, with Tampa Bay sitting at second in passing rate (66.8%) in close games. While the Football team plays fast, they aren’t allowing Taylor Heinicke to let it rip when the score is competitive. Washington is 18th in neutral passing rate (57.4%). 

Injuries

Tampa Bay

• Antonio Brown (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Chris Godwin (WR) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Rob Gronkowski (TE) – (Back – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jason Pierre-Paul (LB) – (Shoulder/Hand – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Washington

• Curtis Samuel (WR) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Montez Sweat (DE) – (Jaw – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Dyami Brown (WR) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Sam Cosmi (OL ) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Benjamin St. Juste (CB) – (- / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Buccaneers

Tom Brady will tee off on this Washington pass defense this week. The Football Team is ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA and against deep passing. They have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (ninth highest) and 20 passing touchdowns (second most). Brady sits at fifth with 39 deep passing attempts with 509 deep passing yards (seventh highest). Washington’s 31.6% (seventh highest) blitz rate would be concerning in previous seasons, but Brady has been carving the blitz up this season. He has the 10th-highest yards per attempt (8.7) and third-most passing touchdowns (eight) versus the blitz. Brady is a core play this week. 

The Buccaneers will turn to the passing game to move the ball because Lombardi Lenny is in for a long day against Washington. The Football Team has allowed 821 rushing yards (seventh lowest). They have given up only 1.87 yards after contact per attempt (31st) while also sporting the third-highest stuff rate and the fifth-lowest gash rate. Leonard Fournette will have productive DFS Sundays moving forward, but this doesn’t look like it’ll be one of them. 

With Antonio Brown out and Chris Godwin looking like he might join him this week, Mike Evans will be the leading target for Tom Brady. Evans has seen an 18% target share and 32% of the team’s air yards. He is tied with Godwin for the team lead in end-zone target share (22%) and is second in red-zone target share (18%). William Jackson could shadow Evans, but he’s only done it twice this season, so it’s unlikely. When Jackson did shadow, he only followed the opposing receiver on 48-53% of their routes. Evans will run about 61% of his routes on the perimeter against Jackson and Benjamin St-Juste. Jackson is permitting a 51.4% catch rate and 92.3 passer rating. 

**Update: With St. Juste ruled out, Fuller will either transition to the outside and Danny Johnson covers the slot or Fuller stays in the slot and Torry McTyer plays outside. Johnson is allowing a 77.8% catch rate and 127.3 passer rating. McTyer has allowed a 71.4% catch rate and 130.4 passer rating in his career (35 targets). This is just another bump up for Brady and his receivers.**

St-Juste has been the corner to pick on for Washington allowing a 64.9% catch rate and 114.5 passer rating. Evans could see elevated slot time this week with no Godwin. He has three games this season in which he’s played 41% or higher snaps from the slot. Kendall Fuller will return to the inside covering the slot this week. Fuller has given up a 67.9% catch rate and 84.8 passer rating in coverage. 

The remainder of the Buccaneers starting wide receivers remains a mystery with the signing of Breshad Perriman and possible activation of Scott Miller. Tyler Johnson likely takes over Godwin’s role as the RWR in two receiver sets and moving into the slot in three wide looks. Johnson is third in slot snaps this season behind only Evans and Godwin. Johnson has only seen a 6% target share and three red zone targets in limited duty this season. He has three career games with 64% snaps or higher played. In two of those three games he has seen six targets and surpassed 60 receiving yards. If he hits those marks and finds the end zone, he’s likely to finish the week as one of the best values on the slate. 

Weeks 4-7

In Rob Gronkowski’s absence, Cameron Brate has taken over as the lead tight end, running a route on nearly 60% of Brady’s dropbacks. Washington has allowed 47 receptions (12th) and 541 receiving yards (ninth-most) to opposing tight ends. The problem is they have only conceded two receiving touchdowns (24th), and with Brate being more of the touchdown or bust variety leaves him a thin play. 

Football Team

Taylor Heinicke doesn’t make the GPP playbook this week. He’s been playing horrendous football lately. Over his last four starts, he’s only completing 59.6% of his passes with 6.2 yards per attempt. He hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 4 against Atlanta. Tampa Bay blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Heinicke will melt under pressure. Among quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, he has the eighth-lowest yards per attempt (6.7) against the blitz. He’s 22nd in blitz passer rating (88.4). 

A less than 100% version of Antonio Gibson isn’t making my DFS rosters against Tampa Bay’s elite run defense. The Buccaneers have allowed only 624 rushing yards and four scores on the ground this year which are the second-lowest marks in the league. They are also seventh in stuff rate (51.4%). 

J.D. McKissic does make some sense in a game or mini-stack. In his last three games, he’s averaging 11.7 touches, eight targets, and 86.4 total yards with a 21.6% target share. The Buccaneers are 23rd in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against pass-catching running backs. They have allowed 58 receptions (fifth-most) and four receiving touchdowns (third-most) to running backs. 

Terry McLaurin is in play in a game stack only. He’s seen a 27.3% target share and 44.6% air yard share, ranking tenth and second among wideouts. He’s seventh in weighted opportunity at the position. He’ll run about 71% of his routes on the outside. Jamel Dean will be one of the corners he sees regularly, but it’s up in the air if Richard Sherman or Dee Delaney starts opposite him. Dean has been nasty this year, allowing only a 43.3% catch rate and 39.6 passer rating. Delaney has also played well, allowing a 75% catch rate and 75.8 passer rating. If Sherman gets the nod, I’ll feel better about McLaurin’s prospects this week. Sherman is giving up a 76.9% catch rate and 99.2 passer rating. 

Ricky Seals-Jones could get another start this week. Since assuming the starting gig, he’s played 93-100% snaps in every game seeing a 15.1% target share and eight red-zone looks. Tampa Bay has allowed 53 receptions (third-most) and four receiving touchdowns (eighth) to tight ends. In terms of interest level in Washington, pass catchers in mini or game stacks it’s McKissic, Seals-Jones and then McLaurin.

DFS Plays

Core plays: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson
GPP only: J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones

Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals

ARI -10.5, O/U 44.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be one of the slowest on the slate. Carolina is 20th in neutral-script pace, followed by Arizona that has sunk to 24th. Each team will lean on its ground game in Week 10. Arizona has climbed to fourth (48.2%) in neutral rushing rate, with Carolina also creeping inside the top 12 (42.6%, 12th). 

Injuries

Carolina

• Brian Burns (DE) – (Foot – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Arizona

• Budda Baker (S) – (Knee/Concussion – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Rondale Moore (WR) – (Neck/Concussion – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kyler Murray (QB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jordan Phillips (DE) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Justin Pugh (OL) – (Calf – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jonathan Ward (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Panthers

Despite the Cam Newton signing, Phillip Walker remains the Week 10 starter with Sam Darnold out. With the laundry list of top quarterbacks in play this week and Walker staring down a tough pass defense, there’s no reason to go to Walker in DFS. Arizona ranks 23rd (73.5%) in adjusted completion rate and 30th (6.5) yards per attempt allowed. The Cardinals are ranked second in pass defense DVOA. 

Last week, Christian McCaffrey was eased back in, only playing 49% of snaps but still racking up 18 touches with 106 total yards. Expect those numbers to climb this week against an Arizona run defense that’s quietly one of the worst in the league. Arizona is allowing the second-highest yards per attempt (4.8), and they are 32nd in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey can also get it done via the passing game against a defense that’s given up 57 receptions (seventh) and 407 receiving yards (tenth-most) to backs. 

DJ Moore is still seeing elite volume with his 28.7% target share and 41.8% air yard market share, but it’s still tough to roster him this week. The tough defense assignment, Walker’s career 49.3% completion rate, and 5.6 yards per attempt don’t inspire confidence. Carolina will likely play slow and lean on McCaffrey while trying to squeeze out a win. 

Cardinals

The Arizona depth chart is the walking wounded with DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore possibly out and A.J. Green not a definite to suit up. With two starting offensive linemen also on the injury report, we need final injury designations to dive through what this starting lineup will look like for Sunday. Check back for my update after Friday injury designations are known. 

**Update: Kyler Murray is off the radar even if he suits up. As for options from this game, the only players from Arizona I’m trusting are Christian Kirk and James Conner. I doubt that Hopkins plays this week and Rondale Moore isn’t sure to see the field. Last week Kirk saw a 23% target share and 47% of the team’s air yards, running about 68% of his routes as an outside wide receiver. He’ll match up with Donte Jackson and Keith Taylor on the perimeter this week. Jackson is giving up a 65.1% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating. Taylor is allowing a 75% catch rate and 112.5 passer rating. Stephon Gilmore is still not a full time player, so any concerns about him are overblown. 

Conner deserves any steam he gets this week. In Week 9, he played 77% of the snaps with 26 touches and 173 total yards. He ran a route on 68% of McCoy’s dropbacks. Carolina will not jump off the page as a matchup to target for running backs, but if you have been reading this article weekly you already know they allow big plays. The Panthers are 27th in explosive run rate allowed and give up the seventh-highest gash rate (12.4%) per FTN Data. Conner makes it into the core play list.**

DFS Plays

Core plays: Christian McCaffrey, James Connor
GPP only: Christian Kirk

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3, O/U 53.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be blazing fast and filled with all of the passing volume your heart could desire. Minnesota and Los Angeles are third and fourth in neutral-script pace. The Chargers lead the way passing the ball on 62.5% (fifth) of their neutral situation plays. The Vikings aren’t far behind with 60.3% (ninth). Per our offensive efficiency tool, this is the fastest projected pace game on the main slate. 

Injuries

Minnesota

• Anthony Barr (LB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Michael Pierce (DT) – (Elbow – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Bashaud Breeland (CB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Los Angeles

• Keenan Allen (WR) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Michael Davis (CB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Justin Jackson (RB) – (Quad – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Joey Bosa (LB) – (Ankle – / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Vikings

Kirk Cousins doesn’t make the short list this week against the Chargers’ vaunted pass defense. Los Angeles is ninth in pass defense DVOA and third against deep passing (per Football Outsiders). They have allowed only ten passing touchdowns (second fewest) and 7.0 yards per attempt (21st). In a high total and pace game though we can pick apart Minnesota for one-offs. 

Dalvin Cook is arguably my favorite running play of the slate. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 23 touches and 111 total yards with two 100-yard rushing games. The Vikings rank eighth and third in second-level and open-field yards, so opening massive holes for Cook to sprint through shouldn’t be an issue. The Chargers have allowed the most rushing yards (1,292) and highest yards per attempt (5.03) in the NFL. They are 32nd in stuff rate while also giving up the tenth highest gash rate. Cook’s pass game usage has dried up as he hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Week 4, but it matters little here when he could break the slate with his rushing output alone. 

Deciding between Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen weekly when looking at receiver plays can be maddening. Jefferson holds the lead in target share and air yard share, but Thielen has the edge in the end-zone target share and red-zone target share. Jefferson will run about 40% of his routes as the LWR, and close to 32% of his snaps will come in the slot. He’ll see a mix of Tevaughn Campbell and Asante Samuel on the perimeter. Campbell has allowed a 64.8% catch rate and 105.3 passer rating in his career. Samuel started his rookie season playing exceptionally, but since Week 5, he’s hit a rookie wall. In his last three games played, he’s allowed 90.9% of the targets in his coverage to be secured with a 140.9 passer rating. Thielen will spend about 41% of his snaps as the RWR, with nearly 24% of his routes also coming from the slot. When either receiver moves inside, they’ll tangle with Chris Harris, who has shown his age again this year, giving up a 73.7% catch rate and 125.3 passer rating. Both Jefferson and Thielen are in play for GPPs, but if you’re asking me to pick one, it’s Thielen this week. The Chargers are more susceptible to short passing, and Thielen edges Jefferson in short targets (25 vs. 21) and passer rating when targeted within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (128.8 vs. 105.1). Jefferson has been the deep threat, leading the team in deep targets (15). K.J. Osborn isn’t playable with his non-existent red-zone role.

Tyler Conklin is in a beautiful spot this week. He’s seen a 15.8% target share this season (19% over his last three games) with a 13% red zone target share. The Chargers are 31st in DVOA against the position with 565 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns allowed (both are the sixth highest in the NFL). 

Chargers

When the Vikings haven’t faced quarterbacks like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff, they have been crushed. Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow completed 72.7% of their passes with 9.0 yards per attempt. Justin Herbert can also carve up this secondary if his offensive line can keep him clean. Without Michael Pierce (likely to sit this week) and Danielle Hunter (IR), the Vikings still pressured Jackson on 30.2% of his dropbacks. The Chargers line has allowed Herbert the fourth lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season. When kept clean, Herbert is 14th in completion rate, but that drops to 33rd when pressured. The scoring environment of this game screams nuclear week if the line holds. 

**Update: Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce being ruled out are more feathers in Ekeler’s cap.**

Austin Ekeler is stackable with Herbert this week. The Vikings have allowed 1,093 rushing yards (sixth-most) and 4.77 yards per attempt (third highest). Minnesota is also 24th in stuff rate. Since Week 2, Ekeler has averaged 17.4 touches and 106.7 total yards per game with a 17.1% target share. The Vikings might be second in DVOA against pass-catching backs, but they have allowed production through the air to rushers. Joe Mixon, Chase Edmonds and Ezekiel Elliott averaged five targets, 4.3 receptions, and 25 receiving yards against this defense. That should be the floor for Ekeler. The only back with a similar pass game role as Ekeler that faced Minnesota is D’Andre Swift, who turned his six targets into six receptions and 53 receiving yards. 

On the surface, Keenan Allen’s and Mike Williams’ seasons look quite similar. If you have rostered Mike Williams in DFS after Week 5, you know this is false. Since Week 6, Mike Williams has seen no more than five targets in any game and not surpassed 60 yards receiving. Slowly the role that he was crushing the competition in Weeks 1-5 has evaporated while Allen’s target share has remained constant. Against the Vikings’ defense, the Chargers should look to attack with short passing. Minnesota is 19th in DVOA against short passes, but they are ninth against downfield throws. The Vikings have limited opposing passing attacks to a 34.1% deep completion rate (25th) and a 91.8 deep passer rating (18th). 

Mike Williams production

Mike Williams will run about 85% of his routes on the perimeter against Cameron Dantzler and Bashaud Breeland. Dantzler is allowing a 55.2% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating. Breeland left last week’s game with a groin issue, but he looks like he will play. If he can’t, Kris Boyd will start in his place. Breeland has permitted a 66.7% catch rate and 116.5 passer rating. Boyd has allowed a 68.8% catch rate and 131.3 passer rating. Williams is due for a bounceback game, and I want to be ahead of the curve on that regression. The match-up says it’s likely not this week, but I will sprinkle in large field exposure on Williams as a hedge. 

Allen is the primary stack option with Herbert again. He’ll run about 60% of his routes from the slot against Mackensie Alexander. Alexander is giving up a 70.6% catch rate and 107.4 passer rating. 

**Update: Allen’s questionable tag is worth watching although he is expected to play. If he somehow misses this game Mike Williams vaults into the core play list.**

This week we don’t have to worry with the Chargers tight end roulette wheel against a pass defense ranked sixth in DVOA against the position. Minnesota has conceded only 378 receiving yards (23rd), and they have yet to allow a receiving touchdown to tight ends. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Tyler Conklin
GPP only: Justin Jefferson

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos

DEN -2.5, O/U 45.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be exhaustingly slow. Denver is ranked 31st in neutral-script pace and over the last two weeks the Eagles have slowed to 17th. Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have gravitated to the run. Philadelphia have been calling rushing plays on an absurd 68.4% of their snaps in close games since Week 8. Denver also has the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate (45.7%) over the last two weeks. 

Injuries

Philadelphia

• No notable injury designations

Denver

• Garett Bolles (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Bobby Massie (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Albert Okwuegbunam (TE) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Tim Patrick (WR) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Patrick Surtain (CB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Dalton Risner (OL) – (Foot – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Eagles

With the Eagles’ laughable passing rate, Jalen Hurts is off the DFS map until further notice. Hurts has attempted only 31 passes total over the last two weeks averaging 132.5 passing yards per game. 

Jordan Howard is the OG Damien Harris. Howard has zero pass game involvement (although that could work as a blanket statement for all Eagle’s backs currently), and you’re praying he rushes for 100 yards or multiple scores to hit a ceiling. This week, Howard is only in play in large fields if we don’t get Mark Ingram and D’Ernest Johnson available as starters. Ingram and Johnson are easy calls to play over Howard this week if Kamara and Chubb are out. Both backs project to have a pass game role and a path to more total volume. The Broncos might be 32nd in red zone rushing defense, but outside the 20-yard line, they are not a beautiful matchup. Denver is 23rd in rushing yards (885), and yards after contact per attempt (2.2) allowed. Denver has allowed the tenth lowest explosive run rate. 

Weeks 8-9

The Eagles’ passing attack is a full fade with the limited passing volume available to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert over the last two weeks. Goedert finished Week 8 with a reasonable 72 yards receiving, but he needed a 44% target share and 34% air yard share to achieve it. His receiving yardage total accounted for 70.8% of Hurts’ overall passing yardage. That’s incredibly difficult to do, except we saw Smith do it in Week 9. His 116 receiving yards required a 38% target share and 51% of the team’s air yards. His receiving yardage total accounted for 71.6% of Hurts’ overall passing yardage total. Those two players ran incredibly hot and garnered nearly all of the passing volume in a given week. Those are unsustainable figures regardless of how you slice them. 

Broncos

Teddy Bridgewater was a thinner play earlier in the NFL season, but you could rationalize it with Denver’s high passing rates. Now with the Broncos playing slow and moving to a run-centric approach he’s not rosterable. He’s failed to attempt 30 passes or throw for more than 250 yards in each of the last two weeks. 

Even with Melvin Gordon nudging ahead of Javonte Williams over the last two weeks, the Denver rushing attack can also be added to the fade list. After opening the season as a matchup to target, the Eagles’ run defense has improved significantly. Overall, they are no allowing the sixth-lowest yards per attempt (3.9) and are 11th in explosive run rate allowed. Over the last four games they have held opposing rushing attacks to 3.8 yards per carry. Denver could also be without multiple starting offensive lineman this week, so don’t worry with Gordon in Week 10. 

Weeks 8-9

Since Jerry Jeudy’s return, he has led the team in target share (24%) with very little meat left on the bone for other pass catchers. Philadelphia’s defensive design is to limit deep shots which takes Courtland Sutton and his 12% target share over the last two weeks off the table. The Eagles have seen the second-fewest deep passes and have allowed the ninth lowest deep passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Jeudy leads the team in short area targets (five) over the last two games. He’ll run about 75% of his snaps against Avonte Maddox. Maddox has allowed a 75% catch rate and 83.6 passer rating. 

Noah Fant is the other viable one-off. In his two games played with Jeudy he’s seen a 19.5% target share. Fant leads the team in short area targets (32). The Eagles are a dream matchup for the tight end position ranking 26th in DVOA. They have allowed 597 receiving yards (fourth-most) and eight receiving touchdowns (most in the NFL) to tight ends. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers

GB -3, O/U 49

Pace and playcalling

This game will crawl as Green Bay is dead last in neutral pace and Seattle is 18th. With Russell Wilson under center, the offense was only throwing on 55.7% (21st) of their neutral script plays. Green Bay resides in the same neighborhood with Aaron Rodgers in uniform passing on 58.5% (14th) of their plays in close games. 

Injuries

Seattle 

• Marquise Blair (S) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Green Bay

• Eric Stokes (CB) – (Knee – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Seahawks

The Packers will pose enough problems for Russell Wilson to keep me from rostering him this week. Green Bay is 12th in pass defense DVOA allowing a 74.4% adjusted completion rate (20th) and 6.6 yards per attempt (fifth lowest). Wilson’s passing volume before the hiatus is also massively concerning as he averaged only 27.3 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-4. 

Alex Collins will draw another uninspiring start. In his four games as the lead back he is averaging 16.6 touches and 64.6 total yards per game. The Packers are not a glitter matchup for an early down grinder like Collins. Green Bay is 28th in yards after per attempt and 25th in gash rate allowed. Another 15-17 empty calories touches are waiting for Collins in Week 10. 

The weekly question with Seattle is always whether it is Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf week. Just so we’re clear … this is Metcalf week. Lockett and Metcalf are splitting hairs when it comes to target share, air yard share, etc., but Metcalf has the clear lead in red zone target share with an eye-popping 44%. Metcalf will run about 57% of his routes this week against the always torchable Kevin King. King is allowing a 73.3% catch rate and 132.9 passer rating. Metcalf is an elite one-off play this week. 

Packers

Green Bay’s sluggish pace will hamper Aaron Rodgers’ upside all year. He’s averaging 32.3 pass attempts per game and has surpassed 280 passing yards only once. Rodgers has at least two passing touchdowns in each of his last seven games, but he’s only thrown for three or more twice. 

AJ Dillon has been a thorn in Aaron Jones’ side. Over the last two weeks, Jones has retained the upper hand in the passing game, but Dillon has eaten into more of the early-down work and the red-zone looks. Jones is a fantastic GPP target not for his immense volume, but his explosive play ability. Those big plays likely won’t be there this week. Seattle is 22nd in yards after contact per attempt allowed. The Seahawks are also giving up the sixth-lowest gash rate. 

Weeks 8-9

The rule is Marquez Valdes-Scantling is in play against teams that struggle against deep passing. That is not this week. Seattle is fourth in DVOA against downfield passing allowing a 22.9% deep completion rate (31st). Seattle also has a good chance to hold Davante Adams in check this week. Seattle is 19th in yards per attempt (7.1) allowed and have giving up only 12 passing touchdowns (sixth fewest) all season. Adams will run about 69% of his routes on the outside against Tre Brown and D.J. Reed. Brown is allowing a 50% catch rate and 56.8 passer rating. Reed has also been stout allowing a 52.5% catch rate and 87.3 passer rating. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: DK Metcalf
GPP only: N/A

Core DFS Plays

Quarterback

• Dak Prescott
• Josh Allen
• Tom Brady
• Justin Herbert

Running Back

• Jonathan Taylor
• Cordarrelle Patterson
• D’Ernest Johnson (GPP/Cash)
• Najee Harris
• Christian McCaffrey
• Dalvin Cook
• Austin Ekeler
• Mark Ingram  (GPP/Cash)

Wide Receiver

High-priced:

• A.J. Brown
• Stefon Diggs
• CeeDee Lamb
• Diontae Johnson
• DK Metcalf
• MIke Evans
• Adam Thielen
• Michael Pittman
• Amari Cooper
• Keenan Allen

Mid-priced/cheap:

• Cole Beasley
• Tyler Johnson

Tight End

• Kyle Pitts
• Tyler Conklin

Favorite GPP Stacks

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Dallas Cowboys
• Buffalo Bills
• Atlanta Falcons