Freedman's Week 6 fantasy football breakdown

The bye weeks are here. The fantasy gawds are merciful.

And we have another London game. The fantasy gawds are just.

In the main 10-game weekend slate for NFL Week 6, here are the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who stand out to me the most based on our expert rankings and fantasy projections as well as the Week 6 betting odds and our wealth of football content across FTN Fantasy, FTN Daily and FTN Bets.

Note: As NFL news breaks and Week 6 NFL inactives are announced Sunday morning, my perspective on some players in this piece may change. For my most up-to-date thoughts on players, consult our rankings.

To see all my Week 6 bets, check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.

Freedman’s favorite quarterbacks for Week 6

Below, I take a look at my favorite quarterbacks for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 6.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Cleveland)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 3
Spread: +3
Total: 49.5

We’re six weeks into the season, and Kyler Murray is deservedly one of the MVP frontrunners for the undefeated 5-0 Cardinals.

Check out our Prop Shop to find the best value for any player or team in any market at any sportsbook. Murray is +500 at BetMGM.

With his league-leading 75.2% completion rate, Murray has passed for 1,512 yards and 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. He trails only Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford with his 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt. On top of that, Murray is 30-110-3 rushing.

With his dual-threat ability, Murray is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback in the league with 26.3 DraftKings and 25.1 FanDuel points per game.

It’s not as if his top-tier performance this year is unexpected.

With his strong play to date, Murray has recaptured the MVP-caliber form he owned last year before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.

Prior to that season-altering event, Murray was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in the league with 31.4 DraftKings and 30.2 FanDuel points per game (per our Splits Tool).

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With their 5-0 record, the Cardinals have steadily climbed up our official FTN Power Rankings, and I have them at No. 5 in my personal power rankings.

By reputation, the Browns have a good defense. And I must admit that some of their underlying numbers are good. They’re No. 6 in yards per play (5.1) and No. 11 in points per game (22.8). On a per-drive basis, the Browns defense is No. 2 in time (2:23), yards (28.2) and plays (5.6).

But the Browns are much stronger in run defense (No. 3, 3.4 yards per carry) than pass defense (No. 20, 8.1 AY/A).

Despite having a favorable stretch of quarterback matchups in Weeks 2-4 — Tyrod Taylor (mid-game injury), Davis Mills (first NFL action), Justin Fields (first NFL start), Kirk Cousins (coaching staff familiarity) — the Browns are top-six in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 24.1 DraftKings and 22.9 FanDuel points allowed per game.

The two quarterbacks they’ve faced to whom Murray is most comparable have absolutely gone off.

Patrick Mahomes (Week 1): 337-3-0 passing | 5-18-1 rushing
Justin Herbert (Week 5): 398-4-0 passing | 4-29-1 rushing

On top of that, the Browns are currently fragile in their secondary: Cornerback Greg Newsome (calf) missed Week 5, and cornerbacks Denzel Ward (neck) and Greedy Williams (shoulder) both exited Week 5 early due to injuries. If all three of them were to miss Week 6, the Browns would be extraordinarily thin at the position.

As a road underdog, Murray is on the negative side of his splits — and that gives me pause.

At home: 25.5 DraftKings points | 24.3 FanDuel points
On road: 20.7 DraftKings points | 19.8 FanDuel points
As favorites: 25.8 DraftKings points | 24.5 FanDuel points
As underdogs: 21.4 DraftKings points | 20.5 FanDuel points

And in Murray’s 14 games as a road dog, he has averaged a situationally career-low 20.7 DraftKings and 19.9 FanDuel points.

Here’s the thing: Those numbers aren’t actually bad. They’re just bad for him. And his matchup is advantageous.

Additionally, under head coach Kliff Kingsbury the Cardinals are an overachieving 9-3-2 against the spread as road underdogs. Murray and the Cardinals have the potential to surprise against the vaunted Browns. And this year underdogs are 45-35 ATS.

As is the case most weeks, I expect Murray to be one of the top quarterbacks in my Week 6 DFS Cheat Sheets.

Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team (vs. Kansas City)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 11
Spread: +6.5
Total: 54.5

The Chiefs have a 4-1 over/under record, and this game easily has the highest total of the week, so we could witness a lot of fantasy goodness in Washington Sunday.

On top of that, the main slate is rather thin at the position — that’s what happens when the bye weeks are in full effect, two teams are playing in London, and the NFL stacks the primetime games — so quarterbacks who otherwise might have been undesirable are suddenly viable this week.

But, really, Taylor Heinicke would have been someone to consider anyway — regardless of slate dynamics — because of his mouth-watering matchup.

You should want Heinicke this week.

The Chiefs have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks with 31.1 DraftKings and 28.7 FanDuel points per game. On defense, they are No. 32 in yards allowed per play (7.1) and overall DVOA (29.3%).

Baker Mayfield didn’t have an elite fantasy performance against the Chiefs in Week 1 (16.6 DraftKings, 13.6 FanDuel points), but he did pass for 321 yards — and every quarterback since him to face the Chiefs has exploded for 30-plus fantasy points.

Lamar Jackson (Week 2): 37.3 DraftKings points | 34.3 FanDuel points
Justin Herbert (Week 3): 30.8 DraftKings points | 30.8 FanDuel points
Jalen Hurts (Week 4): 31.2 DraftKings points | 28.2 FanDuel points
Josh Allen (Week 5): 39.5 DraftKings points | 36.5 FanDuel points

Clearly, we shouldn’t expect Heinicke to do in Week 6 what Jackson, Herbert, Hurts and Allen did in Weeks 2-5 — but it’s notable that all four quarterbacks, despite being top fantasy options, outproduced their seasonal averages against the Chiefs. Jackson, Herbert, Hurts and Allen didn’t go off against the Chiefs merely because they’re all elite fantasy quarterbacks: They went off because the Chiefs are exquisitely bad on defense.

Heinicke is almost certainly not a good NFL quarterback: For his career, he has massively underperformed in the betting market (1-4 ATS record in the regular season) — a tell-tale sign of a subpar quarterback — and his 2021 mark of 7.2 AY/A is mediocre.

But he has a high Konami Code floor. In his six NFL starts (including playoffs), Heinicke has 33, 46, 6, 21, 43, and 40 yards rushing. And this year he has multiple touchdowns passing in 3-of-4 starts.

Heinicke is disadvantaged in that he will be without tight end Logan Thomas (hamstring, IR) and maybe wide receivers Curtis Samuel (groin), Dyami Brown (knee) and Cam Sims (hamstring), which means that Heinicke might be forced to throw to guys the likes of Dax Milne, who is definitely a real-life human and not a random name that I just invented. Honest.

But even with a thinned-out pass-catching corps, Heinicke is likely to put up fantasy points. The Football Team is a significant underdog, and the horridness of the Washington pass defense (No. 26, 8.7 AY/A) should ensure that Heinicke will be forced into a fast-paced pass-leaning game script — and that’s a beautiful thing.

Heinicke loves every YOLO ball he has ever seen, and the Chiefs defense hasn’t met a YOLO ball it can’t misplay.

Heinicke is my top Week 6 quarterback streamer.

Upside quarterbacks for Week 6

Here are some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington): Mahomes is a top-three fantasy quarterback with 28.8 DraftKings and 27.4 FanDuel points per game, and the Football Team is No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, with 29.8 DraftKings and 28.1 FanDuel points per game. Like a hand in a glove. Mahomes is the No. 1 player in our NFL DFS Simulation Model.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (vs. LA Chargers): The Chargers defense is No. 32 with 788 yards rushing allowed and 5.6 yards allowed per carry. Jackson is the best running quarterback in NFL history (63.7 yards per game), and this year he is passing better than he ever has (9.2 AY/A). Jackson will be single-entry DFS chalk.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Baltimore): Herbert has either 300 yards or three touchdowns passing in every game this year, and the Ravens just allowed a career-high 402 yards passing to Carson Wentz.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at NY Giants): Every quarterback or quarterback unit (Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill in Week 4) to face the Giants has scored multiple touchdowns, and Stafford has 300 yards or multiple touchdowns passing in every game with the Rams. It doesn’t hurt that the Rams are giving Stafford excellent starting position on drives off kickoffs.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Detroit): With running back Joe Mixon (ankle) hobbled last week, Burrow had a season-high 38 pass attempts, and the Bengals could lean more on the passing game this week if running back Samaje Perine (COVID-19) is out. The Lions defense is No. 31 in the league with a 10.1 AY/A allowed.

Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas): The Raiders defense is respectably No. 14 with a 4.5% pass DVOA, but the organization may be in turmoil with the recent resignation of former head coach Jon Gruden. Bridgewater has career-high marks with a 69.8% completion rate and 8.6 AY/A. Bridgewater is 39-16 ATS.

Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston): Wentz just passed for a career-high 402 yards on Monday Night Football, and the Texans are No. 28 with 2.58 yards allowed per drive. Wentz is one of our top Week 6 value DFS plays.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots (vs. Dallas): Jones has been competent with his 71.1% completion rate, and the Cowboys are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, with 25.8 DraftKings and 23.4 FanDuel points per game.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs. Cincinnati): Goff is No. 5 with 196 pass attempts, and the Bengals have allowed 300 yards passing to the three quarterbacks who have attempted 30-plus passes against them (Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers). The Bengals will be without starting cornerback Trae Waynes (hamstring, IR).

Freedman’s favorite running backs for Week 6

Below, I take a look at my favorite running backs for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 6.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (at NY Giants)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 12
Spread: -9.5
Total: 48.5

In his four games this year, Darrell Henderson is 60-294-3 rushing and 10-90-0 receiving on 13 targets — and he has missed significant time in two of those games due to injuries.

In his two full games, Henderson has played 94% and 90% of the snaps and averaged 15 carries and 3.5 targets.

That’s the stuff of a fantasy RB1 — especially during the bye weeks.

The Rams have a league-best over/under record of 4-1 and a slate-high spread of -10.5. They are likely to put up points and could strongly rely on the running game if they establish a big lead in the second half.

The Giants are top-eight in fantasy points allowed to running backs with 29.4 DraftKings and 24.7 FanDuel points per game. The Giants are extremely vulnerable in the defensive trenches.

Henderson isn’t Cam Akers: He’ll never be the prince who was promised. But he’s good enough.

He has 12-plus carries in every game this year, and in the 10 career games in which he has hit that mark he has averaged 74.1 yards rushing, 17.9 yards receiving, and 0.7 touchdowns.

Henderson is one of our top Week 6 DraftKings DFS plays.

Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 18
Spread: -6.5
Total: 54.5

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee, IR) suffered an injury last week. He will miss at least the next three games. After he exited the game, Darrel Williams served as the lead back for the Chiefs ahead of Jerick McKinnon, so he seems likely to be the short-term inheritor of Edwards-Helaire’s role — and that makes him an elite option off waivers this week.

Although Williams is the backup, he already has 100% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line, so he’s the goal-line guy. And for a big back (he’s listed at 5-foot-11, 219 pounds, but he looks significantly bigger), Williams is an above-average receiver with a 74.1% catch rate and 6.1 yards per target for his career — and the Washington defense is No. 31 with a 64.1% pass DVOA against running backs.

So he’s getting all the goal-line carries, and he’s an option in the receiving game — and the Chiefs offense is No. 1 in the league with 0.197 expected points added per play (per Ben Baldwin’s RBs Don’t Matter website).

What’s not to like?

The Chiefs are significant road favorites with a week-high implied total of 30.5 points, and the Football Team is No. 31 with 31.0 points allowed per game.

In his seven career games with at least eight carries and a target, Williams has gone over 50 scrimmage yards six times and scored five touchdowns.

And I’m willing to bet he sees more than eight carries and a target this weekend.

Upside running backs for Week 6

Here are some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (at Baltimore): Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, and the Ravens are No. 29 with a 49.1% pass DVOA against the position. Ekeler is the No. 2 fantasy back with 24.9 DraftKings and 22.0 FanDuel points per game, and he’s my No. 1 running back this week, including the primetime and London games.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago): Since their Week 1 nothingburger against the Saints, the Packers are 4-0 ATS and continue to exceed the betting market’s expectations. Over the past month, Jones is 65-300-2 rushing and 15-119-3 receiving on 17 targets. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 47-27 ATS against the NFC North.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (vs. Arizona): He doesn’t catch the ball, but Chubb has 80-plus yards rushing in each game and four touchdowns. He could see expanded usage as a home favorite.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston): The Colts are significant home favorites, and the Texans have a back-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 9 in pass DVOA (-2.2%) but No. 30 in rush DVOA (-2.4%). With 524 yards and three touchdowns through three games, Taylor is a Week 6 slate breaker.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (vs. Cincinnati): Even as a timeshare back on an 0-5 team, Swift still has 442 yards and three touchdowns on 52 carries and 35 targets. Swift leads the league in high-value touches, and he has a Week 6 matchup to target against the Bengals, who are No. 2 in most targets (51) and receptions (41) allowed to running backs.

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (at Carolina): Mattison was chalky last week, but he paid off with 25-113-0 rushing and 7-40-1 receiving on seven targets in relief of starter Dalvin Cook (ankle), who is uncertain this week. He has a tough matchup against the Panthers, who are bottom-two in fantasy points allowed to running backs with 13.3 DraftKings and 11.3 FanDuel points per game — but whenever Cook is out, Mattison is a must-start RB1. He’s very much the arbitrage Cook.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (vs. Arizona): In the barren desert of a bye week, Hunt’s 444 yards and five touchdowns on 55 carries and 21 targets are as good as food and water. The Browns run a league-high 34.8 rushing plays per 60 minutes (per our NFL Pace & Run/Pass Report): There should be enough production to go around for both Nick Chubb and Hunt.

Devontae Booker, New York Giants (vs. LA Rams): Starter Saquon Barkley (ankle) is almost certainly out, so Booker is high-stakes dominator Nelson Sousa’s No. 1 waiver running back this week. He’s also the top back in Vlad Sedler’s Week 6 FAAB strategy breakdown. Great minds, and all that. Last week Booker had 16 carries and four targets on an 88% snap rate as a mid-game injury

To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (vs. Dallas): Harris (chest, ribs) has a day-to-day injury and a newfound penchant for fumbling inside the 10-yard line, so he’s far from a sure thing, but the Patriots could seek to shorten the game against the Cowboys by relying on their rushing attack. In his three games this year with 10-plus carries, Harris has either 100 yards or a touchdown rushing.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas): Although he has been outproduced by veteran Melvin Gordon (378 yards vs. 322), Williams has still averaged 10.8 carries and 2.4 targets per game. Over the past two weeks, the Raiders defense has been exposed by Austin Ekeler (15-117-1 rushing, 3-28-1 receiving), Damien Williams (16-64-1 rushing, 2-20-0 receiving), and Khalil Herbert (18-75-0 rushing).

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (vs. Cincinnati): Williams has 10-plus touches in every game. That makes him a viable bye-week bro. (That’s a technical term.)

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (vs. Kansas City): The Chiefs defense is No. 32 in rush DVOA (10.2%) and No. 28 in pass DVOA (46.7%). McKissic could see significant playing time with the Football Team likely to have a trailing game script as underdogs.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay): Starter David Montgomery (knee, IR) is out, and No. 2 backup Damien Williams (COVID-19) has been placed on the reserve list and seems unlikely to play this weekend. Herbert had 18 carries for 75 yards on a 53% snap rate last week, and the Packers defense is No. 29 with a -2.4% rush DVOA.

Freedman’s favorite wide receivers for Week 6

Below, I take a look at my favorite wide receivers for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 6.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 1
Spread: -4.5
Total: 44.5

Hey, everyone! Here’s a blurb telling you how good Davante Adams is!

In the 2016-20 half-decade timeframe, Adams averaged 1,127.8 yards and 11.6 touchdowns receiving on 91.6 receptions and 136.6 targets in 14.2 games per year. For that five-year period, Adams was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 20.3 DraftKings and 16.1 FanDuel points per game (min. 12 games per year).

He’s the best receiver in the league and has been for longer than many people appreciate.

Despite a terrifying 38-3 Week 1 road loss to the Saints that had everyone questioning everything they thought they knew about the Packers, Adams has more or less been his typical self in 2021: He’s No. 1 in targets (61), receptions (42), and yards (579).

Last week, Adams had an outrageous career-high 206 yards receiving.

Right now, Adams is in a tier of his own relative to all other pass catchers. He is the No. 1 wide receiver in Tyler Loechner’s fantasy trade value chart.

He has just two touchdowns on the year — but getting touchdowns has never been a problem for Adams. Where there are targets, receptions, and yards, the touchdowns will follow.

Adams leads all wide receivers with 109.4 expected fantasy points.

At a glance, this isn’t a great matchup for Adams: The Bears defense is No. 4 with a -8.6% pass DVOA. But with additional inspection, the matchup looks good: The Bears are No. 30 with a 32.1% pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers.

Adams has the highest ceiling projection among all wide receivers in our new state-of-the-art optimizer, and he’s the No. 1 overall player in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 6 fantasy football flex rankings.

Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams (at NY Giants)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 49
Spread: -9.5
Total: 48.5

Although we have Van Jefferson ranked well outside the fantasy WR4 range, I want to highlight him because I think he’s flexible as a deep, desperation flyer — especially in a bye week.

First, he’s on the field. Through five games, he has a 72.4% snap rate.

Second, this year he has already had two peak performances that highlight the upside he owns within the high-scoring Rams offense.

Week 1 (vs. CHI): 2-80-1 receiving, three targets
Week 4 (vs. ARI): 6-90-1 receiving, six targets

Third, the matchup is generally good. The Giants are top-10 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 41.9 DraftKings and 34.1 FanDuel points per game.

Fourth, the matchup is specifically good for him. The Giants are No. 31 with a 39.6% pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers. Next to teammates Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, Jefferson has a real chance to exploit the soft coverage he’ll see.

Look, I didn’t wake up this morning thinking I’d write a featured blurb on Jefferson, and you didn’t wake up thinking you’d read one. But here we are.

For a guy so far down our rankings, he offers valuable upside.

Upside wide receivers for Week 6

Here are some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington): Hill is having another typically terrific season with 37-516-4 receiving on 51 targets and 4-45-0 rushing. The Football Team is top-six in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 45.4 DraftKings and 36.9 FanDuel points per game. Against Washington, Hill gets an obvious matchup upgrade (per Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 6 WR/CB matchups breakdown).

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (at Baltimore): Williams has balled out this season with 31-471-6 receiving on 51 targets and is top-five with 44 first-read targets and six end-zone targets (per our Advanced Receiving Stats Tool). Williams is one of our top Week 6 SuperDraft DFS plays.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (at Carolina): Jefferson was a “good process, good outcome” play in single-entry DFS tournaments last week. As good as they are overall on defense, the Panthers rank No. 32 against No. 1 wide receivers with a 38.2% pass DVOA. Jefferson has either 100 yards or a touchdown in 4-of-5 games — and he was straight-up robbed of a touchdown in the fifth game.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (at NY Giants): Kupp is 37-523-5 receiving on 56 targets, and he ranks No. 1 with 50 first-read targets and 10 red-zone targets. Kupp is one of our top Week 6 FanDuel DFS plays.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. Minnesota): In Week 5, Moore had season-low marks with seven targets, five receptions, 42 yards, and zero touchdowns, but he still has 10 targets per game this year, and this week he faces cornerback Patrick Peterson, who gifts him an NFL-best 80.2 matchup rating in our WR/CB Matchup Tool. Naturally, I’m betting on the Panthers as underdogs.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (vs. Kansas City): McLaurin is averaging 11.25 targets in quarterback Taylor Heinicke’s four starts, and the Chiefs defense is No. 31 with a 44.3% pass DVOA.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (at Detroit): Chase is No. 1 in the league with 13.0 yards per target (min. 20 targets) and No. 2 with five touchdowns receiving. The Lions are No. 32 in the league 10.0 yards allowed per pass attempt. Chase is one of our top Week 6 Yahoo DFS plays.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (at Baltimore): Allen doesn’t have the sexy statistics of teammate Mike Williams (471 yards, six touchdowns vs. 369 yards, one touchdown), but he has an incredibly and consistently high floor with eight-plus targets in every game. Allen is a good matchup in the slot against cornerback Tavon Young, who has allowed an 83.3% catch rate and 9.5 yards per target this year. Allen is one of Javier Prellezo’s “Must Jav” Week 6 DFS plays.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (at NY Giants): The buy-low window for Woods crushed many greedy little fingers last week as it slammed shut with his 12-150-0 receiving performance. Woods has downside this week — last year he was just 6-36-0 receiving against the Giants while spending much of the game in cornerback James Bradberry’s coverage (per our 2020 Shadow Index) — but his upside is apparent.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas): Sutton (ankle) is dealing with an injury, but he practiced fully on Wednesday, so he’s in no danger of missing Week 6. Sutton has a tough matchup — cornerback Casey Hayward is a longtime AFC West nemesis — but Sutton is 21-316-1 receiving on 28 targets in his three full games with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (ankle, IR).

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (vs. LA Chargers): In the 13 games since his three-target, zero reception Week 11 letdown last year, Brown is 65-985-11 receiving on 95 targets and 3-24-0 rushing (including playoffs) — and last week he put-up a career-best 9-125-2 receiving performance.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at Indianapolis): Degenerate that I am, I’m betting on the Texans at +10. Cooks did little last week (3-23-0 receiving, five targets) in rookie quarterback Davis Mills’ best NFL game (312 yards, three touchdowns passing) — and that’s incredibly frustrating — but Cooks is still No. 1 in the league with a 50.6% market share of his team’s air yards and No. 2 with a 34% target share and 86.4% WOPR (per our Air Yards Tool). The Colts defense is No. 30 with a 40.6% pass DVOA.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight. It combines market shares of targets and air yards.

Kadarius Toney, New York Giants (vs. LA Rams): Wide receivers Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) seem likely to return to action this week, but No. 1 receiver Kenny Golladay (knee) is almost certain to be out, so Toney should continue to play with the starters. Toney is 16-267-0 receiving on 22 targets with an NFL-high 141 yards after catch. Toney was the No. 1 priority in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 6 waiver wire rankings.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston): Pittman has averaged 9.8 targets over the past month with at least seven targets in each game, and the four players to hit that threshold have all been serviceable at worst: Laviska Shenault (7-50-0, 10 targets), D.J. Chark (3-86-1, 12 targets), DJ Moore (8-126-0, 12 targets) and Stefon Diggs (7-114-0, 11 targets).

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (at Detroit): In his 11 full games with quarterback Joe Burrow, Higgins has averaged a respectable 68.5 yards and 0.55 touchdowns receiving on 7.6 targets. The Lions defense is No. 27 with a 25.7% pass DVOA.

Odell Beckham, Cleveland Browns (vs. Arizona): “What happens to a dream deferred? Does it dry up like a raisin in the sun? Or fester like a sore — and then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? Or crust and sugar over — like a syrupy sweet? Maybe it just sags like a heavy load. Or does it explode?”

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay): Mooney is No. 6 in the league with a 28.7% target share and No. 11 with a 66.6% WOPR over the past three weeks with quarterback Justin Fields. The Packers are without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder, IR) and might be without No. 2 cornerback Kevin King (shoulder), who exited last week with an injury and is yet to return to practice.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (vs. Cincinnati): Wide receivers Tyrell Williams (concussion, IR) and Quintez Cephus (collarbone, IR) are out, so St. Brown could be the team’s No. 1 receiver. St. Brown is 13-135-0 receiving on 16 targets over the past two weeks with a 71% snap rate, and he could see more playing time this week. Start St. Brown.

Mecole Hardman. Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington): Hardman had a career-high 12 targets last week, and the Chiefs are No. 1 in our NFL Stacking Model.

Adam Humphries, Washington Football Team (vs. Kansas City): If both wide receivers Dyami Brown (knee) and Curtis Samuel (groin) miss Week 6, then Humphries coul-ugh blurgh … sorry, I just threw up in my mouth.

Freedman’s favorite tight ends for Week 6

Below, I take a look at my favorite tight ends for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 6.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 1
Spread: -6.5
Total: 54.5

We’ve reached that point in the article where I cut and paste a previous blurb I’ve written about Travis Kelce and then make some minor updates to fit it to the occasion.

Cutting … pasting … done!

Death, taxes, Kelce No. 1 fantasy tight end.

Kelce’s superiority is almost boring at this point. He has been the No. 1 fantasy tight end in each of the past five years.

For the season, he’s 30-369-4 receiving on 42 targets. He has either 100 yards or a touchdown in 4-of-5 games.

With an average of 1,327 yards and 8.7 touchdowns per year, Kelce essentially provided wide receiver production with tight end eligibility for the 2018-20 seasons.

And that has been the case this year as well.

With 19.4 DraftKings and 15.2 FanDuel points per game, Kelce is a low-end WR1.

Washington’s linebackers have collectively allowed 9.2 yards per target this year and the safeties have allowed 9.3 yards per target.

Yeah … I don’t see them stopping Kelce, who is on the positive side of his career-long splits as a favorite.

Favorite (97 games): 17.3 DraftKings points | 13.6 FanDuel points
Underdog (26 games): 14.1 DraftKings points | 10.9 FanDuel points

In the 16 games since Week 8 last year, when the Chiefs made a point of emphasizing Kelce within the offense after his three-target game the week before, Kelce is 126-1,644-13 receiving with a 2-point conversion on 171 targets (including playoffs).

Kelce is the No. 1 tight end in Kyle Murray’s Week 6 NFL Model.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team (vs. Kansas City)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 13
Spread: +6.5
Total: 54.5

The thesis for playing Ricky Seals-Jones is simple: No. 1 tight end Logan Thomas (hamstring, IR) is out. As an in-game injury fill-in, Seals-Jones had a 93% snap rate in relief of Thomas in Week 4 — and then in Week 5 he had a 99% snap rate as the starter.

With his every-down role, Seals-Jones was basically a one-for-one Thomas replacement last week, ranking No. 2 on the team behind wide receiver Terry McLaurin in route run (43 vs. 42) and targets (11 vs. 8).

And for the season he’s No. 1 on the Football Team with four red-zone targets and No. 2 with three end-zone targets.

He could be your answer at tight end off waivers.

This week Seals-Jones has a strong matchup against the Chiefs, who are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 18.5 DraftKings and 14.8 FanDuel points per game.

Safety Daniel Sorensen will be the defender most responsible for Seals-Jones throughout the game.

Here are five tweets that tell you all you need to know about Sorensen.

Sorensen has allowed an 80% catch rate, 10% touchdown rate and 14.2 yards per target in his coverage this year.

In all fairness, it’s not as if linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Nick Bolton have done much better. Collectively, they have allowed a 79.4% catch rate and 8.7 yards per target.

Whether he’s facing Sorensen or a linebacker, Seals-Jones should have an edge. He was Nelson Sousa’s preferred pickup at the position this week.

Finally, he played for the Chiefs last year, so this is a #RevengeGame. That’s obviously the most important factor. I probably should’ve led with that.

Seals-Jones is one of Chris Meaney’s Week 6 starts (sponsored by TopProp).

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Upside tight ends for Week 6

Here are some tight ends I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (at Broncos): Waller is the No. 1 tight end with 39 first-read, nine red-zone, and four end-zone targets as well as a 24.0% target share and 53.6% WOPR. In his four games against the Broncos under head coach Vic Fangio, Waller is 25-331-1 receiving on 33 targets.

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Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs. LA Chargers): On the one hand, the Chargers have All-Pro shutdown safety Derwin James. On the other hand, they are top-two in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 20.5 DraftKings and 16.3 FanDuel points per game. In back-to-back-to-back weeks, they have been imposed upon by Travis Kelce (7-104-0, 11 targets), Darren Waller (4-50-1, seven targets), and David Njoku (7-149-1, seven targets). Andrews is No. 1 on the team with 38 targets and 29 receptions and is one of Chris Meaney’s top Week 6 DFS plays.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (at New England): I’m betting on the Cowboys — so that might be reason enough to fade Schultz and the rest of his teammates. Even so, Schultz has six-plus targets in 4-of-5 games and is top-three on the team with 31 targets, 26 receptions, 280 yards receiving, and three touchdowns.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas): With No. 2 tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (hamstring, IR) on the sideline for most of the past two weeks, Fant has played a 96% snap rate and gotten 14 targets. The Raiders are No. 25 with a 22.4% pass DVOA against tight ends. Fant is one of David Jones’ Week 6 “Tenacious Targets” for DFS tournaments.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (vs. Dallas): Henry is what I hoped Jonnu Smith would be. Well, almost. He’s 15-143-2 receiving on 19 targets over the past three games. The Cowboys are No. 31 with a 46.6% pass DVOA against tight ends.

Evan Engram, New York Giants (vs. LA Rams): “The warmth of your love is like the warmth of the sun. This will be our year: Took a long time to come. Don’t let go of my hand now that darkness has gone. This will be our year: Took a long time to come.” Etc.

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings (at Carolina): Since Week 14 last year (when then-starter Kyle Rudolph missed the end of the season), Conklin has averaged 5.1 targets per game. If I had something else more inspiring to say about Conklin, I’d put it here.

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers (at Baltimore): Cook is No. 3 on the team with 26 targets as well as four red-zone and three end-zone targets. The Ravens are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 20.4 DraftKings and 15.6 FanDuel points per game.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (vs. Packers): Kmet has a 90% snap rate and 19.3% target share over the past three weeks with quarterback Justin Fields, and he’s actually No. 1 at the position — tied with Travis Kelce — with a 29.3% market share of air yards over that time. Kmet is streamable.