NFL best bets for Week 6

I tend to bet sides and totals early in the week — usually Sunday night or Monday morning — in the expectation that lines will move as the week progresses.

You can find all my bets in the FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.

Given the line movement we’ve already seen, the following plays are my current best bets — the ones I think offer the most value right now.

Game odds via our Week 6 betting odds page.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles Week 6 Odds

• Bet: Over 52.5
• Odds: -110, BetMGM

The Bucs on defense are without linebacker Lavonte David (ankle), cornerbacks Carlton Davis (quad, IR) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow, IR), and safety Antoine Winfield (concussion).

As a result, the Bucs are vulnerable on defense, especially against the pass, where they have allowed a league-high 314.4 yards per game.

With an injured defense and elite offense (No. 2 with 0.192 expected points added per play, per Ben Baldwin’s RBs Don’t Matter website), the Bucs have a 4-1 over/under record this year.

And under head coach Bruce Arians, the Bucs have a 27-14 over/under record overall. 

Pick: Over 52.5

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Week 6 Odds

• Bet: Packers -4
• Odds: -110, DraftKings Sportsbook

This line is -4.5 at every other sportsbook, so there’s decent line-shopping value in grabbing it at DraftKings. 

Throw out Week 1, when the Packers suffered a burn-the-tape 38-3 road loss to the Saints. Since Week 2, the Packers are No. 3 with 0.175 EPA/play on offense and 4-0 ATS.

Meanwhile, the Bears are No. 25 with -0.047 EPA/play on offense in rookie quarterback Justin Fields’ three starts.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 124-86-5 ATS for his career and 47-27 ATS within the division.

In a head-to-head matchup between the two coaches, the clear edge goes to the Packers, as Matt LaFleur is 4-0 ATS vs. Matt Nagy, who is 14-23-1 ATS in the post-hype era following his first season with the Bears.

Pick: Packers -4 

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots Week 6 Odds

• Bet: Cowboys -3.5
• Odds: -105, FanDuel Sportsbook

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS … and I’m 0-5 betting against them — so I clearly have no good read on this team. In fact, given that I’ve finally capitulated to the Cowboys, you should probably bet on the Patriots.

The Patriots are No. 7 with 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt allowed on defense — but I think that number is artificially low, given that the Pats have faced quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, Tom Brady (in the rain, and a player they know well) and Davis Mills.

In Dak Prescott, the Patriots defense will likely have its most challenging quarterback test of the year so far.

The Cowboys have a great balance: On offense, they are No. 5 with 0.157 EPA/play. On defense, they are No. 6 with -0.035 EPA/play.

Granted, they are No. 30 with 6.3 yards allowed per play, which highlights the boom/bust nature of their defense. They are No. 2 with 12 turnovers created — and it’s hard for a stop unit to live solely on turnover luck.

But maybe this is simply who the Cowboys are on defense — a bunch of ball-hawking swashbucklers led by second-year breakout cornerback Trevon Diggs, who has league-high marks with six interceptions and 10 passes defended.

But even if the Cowboys defense is more lucky than good, I still don’t believe the Patriots offense is dynamic enough to make a boom/bust defense actually bust.

Pick: Cowboys -3.5 

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans Week 6 Odds

• Bet: Bills -5.5
• Odds: -110, Caesars

I bet this at -3.5 Monday morning, but I like this number up to -6.

In our official FTN Power Rankings, the Bills are No. 1, and the Titans are No. 19. In my personal power rankings, I have the Bills at No. 1 and the Titans at No. 22.

I think a massive difference exists between these two teams.

The Bills just beat the Chiefs 38-20 Sunday night. They’re No. 1 with -0.265 EPA/play on defense and No. 7 with 0.129 EPA/play on offense (No. 2 with 0.214 if we remove their Week 1 no-show performance against the Steelers).

The Titans, meanwhile, are No. 25 with 8.6 AY/A allowed and No. 26 with 4.5 yards per carry allowed on defense.

I don’t see how the Titans stop the Bills.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 30-19-2 ATS for his career and 14-5-2 ATS on the road.

Pick: Bills -5.5