Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Week 5 main slate is officially in the books. The 1 p.m. EST window was wacky, highlighted by the Packers vs. Bengals. Neither team wanted to win, with the two kickers combined for five missed field goals at the end of regular and overtime. Things weren’t quite as wild in the late afternoon games, but the Browns and Chargers delivered an entertaining contest.
There were plenty of DFS fireworks as well. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from the Week 5 main slate, as well as some of the million-dollar winners on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Winners
The Chalk
What a smash week for the chalk. Alexander Mattison was the highest owned player on the slate, checking in with nearly 50% ownership across DraftKings tournaments, and he definitely did not disappoint. He took advantage of his spot start for Dalvin Cook, racking up 30.3 DraftKings points thanks to 113 rushing yards, seven catches, 40 receiving yards, and a touchdown. He’s now smashed in both of his starts this season, so he’s proven himself to be a must-play whenever Cook is inactive.
Derrick Henry and Davante Adams were the next highest-owned players, and they were outstanding as well. Henry finished with 130 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while Adams dominated with 11 catches for more than 200 receiving yards and two scores.
Overall, if you just locked those three players into your lineups, you were rewarded with 104.9 DKFP. There is definitely merit to fading some of the chalk in tournament lineups, but on certain weeks, that’s going to leave you with egg on your face. This was one of those weeks.
Buccaneers stacks
They say that Father Time is undefeated, but Tom Brady is giving him a run for his money. He was sensational on Sunday, racking up 411 passing yards and five touchdowns. He even added 13 rushing yards for good measure, bringing his fantasy total to more than 40 fantasy points for the day.
Even better, his passing production was correlated around two of his pass-catchers. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown each caught two touchdowns, and both players also finished with more than 100 rushing yards. That made a Brady-Evans-Brown stack pretty optimal on this slate.
The best part? This wasn’t a very popular stack on this slate, with just 0.3% of lineups utilizing all three players in the DraftKings $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. Those who did utilize that stack were able to rocket up leaderboards, especially if they ate some of the chalk that smashed.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Williams was coming off his worst game of the season last week vs. the Raiders, but he bounced back in a big way vs. the Browns. He had a monster game, racking up eight catches for 165 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 39.5 DKFP for the week. That made him the second-highest scoring receiver on the slate.
Williams wasn’t cheap at $7,200, but he will most certainly be more expensive next week. He should also command more ownership after checking in at approximately 3% in Week 5.
This game in general deserves some love. The Browns and Chargers combined for 89 points, so there was plenty of fantasy scoring to go around. Williams was the big winner, but Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt also did well for their fantasy owners.
Losers
New York Giants
What a brutal season it’s been for the Giants. Instead of taking a bus to the game, they should start taking an ambulance. They were already down Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, and they lost Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay this week. Jones was the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings, so his injury was particularly brutal for fantasy owners.
Those injuries did allow Kadarius Toney to shine — he racked up 10 catches for 189 yards and looked absolutely electric — but even his day ended on a sour note. He was ejected after throwing a punch, which won’t sit well with disciplinarian Joe Judge.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Moore has been one of the best fantasy receivers to start the year, but he struggled in Week 5. He finished with just five catches for 42 yards, which disappointed a lot of fantasy players. He was owned in nearly 15% of DraftKings tournament lineups and was a popular choice in cash games as well.
That said, it wasn’t exactly Moore’s fault. Sam Darnold has played well to start his tenure with the Panthers, but he turned back into a pumpkin this week. He finished with just 177 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions vs. the Eagles, which was massively disappointing. The Eagles have not been a good defensive team this year, so more was expected out of him.
Tennessee Titans passing attack
The Titans have never been a pass-first offense, but things have been particularly grim recently for their passing attack. Derrick Henry has become the first, second and third option for this team, which hasn’t left any fantasy value for the rest of the offense.
Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown were both drafted as solid fantasy starters this offseason, but neither player has lived up to expectations. Their struggles were magnified in an exploitable matchup vs. the Jaguars. Tannehill finished with just 197 passing yards and one touchdown, while Brown managed just three catches for 38 yards. Julio Jones didn’t even suit up in this contest, so Brown’s poor showing was particularly disappointing.
The Titans lack of a passing attack didn’t hurt them in this matchup, but it does cap their ceiling as far as contending for a title. It’s hard to imagine them beating good teams if they’re not going to get any production out of their passing game.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $4M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
This lineup didn’t have Henry or Williams, but it had basically every other big play this week. This was one of the few teams to utilize the Brady-Evans-Brown stack, and they didn’t bring it back with anyone on the Dolphins. That ended up being the correct decision. I would imagine that most people that utilized that roster construction went with someone like Jaylen Waddle or Mike Gesicki for the Dolphins, but the Dolphins’ passing attack didn’t hold up their end of the bargain.
Mattison, Adams and Toney rounded out the stud performances in this lineup, while Chuba Hubbard was good enough. He racked up 21.4 DKFP at just 6.4% ownership in what was likely his last startable week.
Hunter Henry and the Vikings D finished up this lineup, and both players did well considering their ownership.
NFL $3M MEGA MILLIONAIRE
This contest features far fewer entries than the previous Milly Maker, so perfection wasn’t required. Still, this is obviously a very good lineup.
This team also utilized a Bucs’ stack, albeit with Leonard Fournette instead of Evans. Fournette wasn’t quite as good as his teammate, but he still finished with a very respectable 21.0 DKFP. They also chose to go with the traditional approach and ran things back with Gesicki, who did just enough to justify his price tag.
Ja’Marr Chase was the difference-maker for this squad. His struggles from over the summer feel like they were a million years ago at this point. He has dominated to start the year, racking up 17 catches for 297 yards and four touchdowns through his first four games, and he added another 159 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 5.
James Robinson also managed to deliver value despite the Jaguars losing by nearly three touchdowns.
$2.5M NFL Sunday Million
Congratulations to captain_insaino. It’s nice to see a guy without a blue star next to his name take down a GPP on FanDuel.
This lineup utilized an interesting roster construction. They played both Brown and Evans without Brady, which is not something you usually see from a “professional” DFS player. They also used Evans in the flex despite having a player with a later start time at wide receiver, which is a big no-no in DFS. I’m not the type of person to flex shame someone — especially someone who just won $1M — but that’s something you should be actively avoiding. Having your latest player in the flex spot gives you more flexibility on slates where you don’t hit the nuts.
This lineup employed a Chargers’ stack with Herbert, Ekeler and Williams, which was an awesome combination when paired with the Bucs’ receivers. That allowed this lineup to overcome a subpar performance from Tony Pollard.
This team ultimately sealed the deal with a late pick-six from the Cowboys’ defense, but this lineup was so good that they didn’t even need it. They cleared the field by nearly 12 points, which is extremely impressive in a contest with more than 553,000 entries.
This lineup probably doesn’t belong in the DFS Louvre, but that’s the beautiful thing about fantasy football. Anyone can win on any single week, and captain_insaino is the latest person to become a millionaire through DFS. Who knows, maybe you’ll be next.
