Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
NFL Articles
NFL
Bets
Week 20 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards Player Props – Week 20 Bills vs. Chiefs Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-115/-115). The public has bet the UNDER down to 258.5 (-115) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115). O/U 258.5 -115/-115 O/U 255.5 -110/-110 O/U 258.5 -117/-117 O/U 258.5 -115/-115 Pros Given their […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashee Rice from EV Insight
Rashee RiceReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 20 Bills vs. Chiefs Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110). The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-114). O/U 70.5 -130/100 O/U 69.5 -110/-110 O/U 70.5 -131/-104 O/U 70.5 -115/-115 Pros Given their […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 20 Bills vs. Chiefs Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110). The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114). O/U 40.5 -115/-115 O/U 40.5 -110/-110 O/U 40.5 -121/-113 O/U 40.5 -115/-120 Pros Accounting for […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Fantasy
What Changed in 2023 for Fantasy Football: Tight Ends
Michael Dolan
NFL
DVOA
Texans at Ravens: DVOA Preview
The problem is that the Baltimore Ravens are just that good. The Baltimore Ravens finished the 2023 regular season with the No. 5 highest DVOA ever. Their season stood out for the huge victories over other good teams. They beat San Francisco 33-19 and it wasn’t that close. They beat Miami 56-19. They beat Detroit […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Packers at 49ers: DVOA Preview
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys, becoming the first seventh seed to win a playoff game in NFL history. No, that’s not right. The Packers didn’t beat the Cowboys – they annihilated them. Jordan Love and the Packers put up a passing DVOA of 189.9%, the best in Green Bay franchise […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DFS
NFL First-Look FanDuel Slate Breakdown: Divisional Round
We’re down to just eight NFL teams remaining to play in this year’s Super Bowl, and we have two games each Saturday and Sunday this weekend. FanDuel has elected to split the DFS slates into two games for each day, at least as far as the largest prize pools. That’s how we’re going to tackle […]
Adam Strangis
CFB
NFL
Fantasy
2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Adonai Mitchell
Last Updated: 1/17/2024 Adonai Mitchell burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2021, posting over 400 yards and 4 scores, but he suffered a setback as a sophomore, as an ankle injury forced him to miss most of the year for Georgia. He transferred to Texas for his junior year where he exploded […]
Jeremy Popielarz
NFL
DVOA
Can Lamar Jackson Break His Playoff Curse?
Lamar Jackson is a one-time MVP, looking like he’s going to be a two-time MVP in a couple of weeks. He is a regular feature in the Pro Bowl when healthy, and by any measurement or consideration is one of the best quarterbacks in football today. He is at the helm of the fifth-best team […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Divisional NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 20 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
Fantasy
Dynasty Fantasy Football: Players Whose Value Could Change This Offseason
With 2023 in the rearview mirror, we have to get into the nitty-gritty of the dynasty offseason, when fantasy football championships are won. One of these key moves is stashing players who could see a significant role increase in the coming year. Every year, players emerge from out of the shadows to become weekly fantasy […]
Jeremy Popielarz
NFL
Fantasy
What Changed in 2023 for Fantasy Football: Wide Receivers
It’s important to have a core set of beliefs in anything, fantasy football included. Just as important, though, is a willingness to reevaluate those beliefs when presented with new information. That’s what we’ll be doing this week, looking at what changed and what we learned for fantasy football in the 2023 NFL season that we […]
Daniel Kelley
NFL
Bets
Divisional Round NFL Moneyline Underdogs
The NFL Wild Card Weekend never disappoints, and it persevered even through the most aggressive of snowstorms in Buffalo. We are now onto the NFL Divisional Round with four fantastic matchups scheduled this weekend: Houston at Baltimore: Saturday, 4:30 pm ET Green Bay at San Francisco: Saturday, 8:15 pm ET Tampa Bay at Detroit: […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DVOA
Most Aggressive Coaches of 2023
Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coaches should go for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actually do go for it based on NFL history. Our current AI […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
Fantasy
Fantasy Crossroads Revisited: The Biggest Draft-Day Conundrums of 2023 and What We Learned
When it comes to fantasy football analysis, it is exciting to see what you got right at the end of the season. However, it is more important to see what you got wrong. It is a very important part of the process to see why things went a certain way for players over the […]
Adam Pfeifer
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card DVOA: Packers Passing Party
Now updated with Monday games! The Green Bay Packers had a huge victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, much larger than the 48-32 final score. DVOA downweights the Dallas scores in the fourth quarter because they came with such a huge gap between the teams. As a result, Green Bay finished the game with […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card Quick Reads: Love Has Won
Here’s Quick Reads for Wild-Card Weekend, now updated with the two Monday games! Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks TotalDYAR PassDYAR RushDYAR Opp 1. Jordan Love GB 16/21 272 3 0 0 224 224 0 DAL As noted in today’s DVOA commentary, this was the best passing DVOA game ever for the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
Fantasy
What Changed in 2023 for Fantasy Football: Running Backs
It’s important to have a core set of beliefs in anything, fantasy football included. Just as important, though, is a willingness to reevaluate those beliefs when presented with new information. That’s what we’ll be doing this week, looking at what changed and what we learned for fantasy football in the 2023 NFL season that we […]
Michael Dolan
NFL
DFS
Monday Night Wild Card DFS Showdown: Bucs vs. Eagles
Wild Card weekend is almost through, and we have the Philadelphia Eagles at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this evening. This article will give you my DFS showdown picks and strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel. I tend to go with a correlated build that tells a story. I find that wins more than it loses. The […]
David Jones
NFL
Fantasy
What Changed in 2023 for Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks
It’s important to have a core set of beliefs in anything, fantasy football included. Just as important, though, is a willingness to reevaluate those beliefs when presented with new information. That’s what we’ll be doing this week, looking at what changed and what we learned for fantasy football in the 2023 NFL season that we […]
Daniel Kelley
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125). The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-105) after it opened @ 35.5 (-125). O/U 36.5 -125/-105 O/U 34.5 -114/-114 O/U 36.5 -113/-121 O/U 35.5 -120/-110 Pros The leading […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Pickens from EV Insight
George PickensReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-140/+110). The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-140) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115). O/U 42.5 -140/110 O/U 41.5 -114/-114 O/U 42.5 -115/-119 O/U 42.5 -115/-115 Pros The Pittsburgh […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-118). The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-118) after it opened @ 21.5 (-112). O/U 20.5 -115/-115 O/U 20.5 -114/-114 O/U 20.5 -113/-121 O/U 20.5 -115/-115 Pros The Pittsburgh […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight
Najee HarrisRushing Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-140/+105). The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-140) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115). O/U 61.5 -115/-115 O/U 61.5 -113/-115 O/U 61.5 -127/-108 O/U 60.5 -140/105 Pros The leading […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight
James CookRushing Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110). O/U 64.5 -115/-115 O/U 61.5 -115/-113 O/U 64.5 -109/-125 O/U 64.5 -115/-115 Pros The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script. […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight
Josh AllenPassing Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 226.5 yards (-139/+102). The public has bet the OVER up to 226.5 (-139) after it opened @ 210.5 (-117). O/U 226.5 -115/-115 O/U 231.5 -114/-114 O/U 226.5 -139/102 O/U 225.5 -120/-110 Pros The Buffalo […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 19 Bills vs. Steelers Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-113/-115). The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-113) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114). O/U 66.5 -115/-115 O/U 69.5 -113/-115 O/U 66.5 -109/-125 O/U 70.5 -105/-125 Pros This week, […]
FTN Staff
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Sam LaPorta from EV Insight
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 19 Lions vs. Rams Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-120). The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-120) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115). O/U 23.5 -110/-120 O/U 25.5 -110/-110 O/U 23.5 -117/-117 O/U 23.5 -110/-120 Pros The predictive […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DFS
Sunday Night Wild Card DFS Showdown: Lions vs. Rams
The NFL Wild Card weekend is here, and we have the Los Angeles Rams at the Detroit Lions. This article will give you my DFS showdown picks and strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel. I tend to go with a correlated build that tells a story. I find that wins more than it loses. The […]
David Jones
NFL
DVOA
Eagles at Bucs: DVOA Preview
Our DVOA ratings have been down on the Philadelphia Eagles for much of the 2023 season, at least compared to their win-loss record. As the Eagles escaped the early season with some close wins over unimpressive opponents (25-20 over the Patriots, 38-31 over the Commanders, etc.), the DVOA ratings kept the Eagles around ninth or […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers at Bills: DVOA Preview
Edit: This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pm EST. That means lesser winds around 12mph and just a small chance of snow showers. It will still be very cold but not as cold as Kansas City on Saturday night. Get the shovels ready! Buffalo could be pelted with Lake Effect snow right at […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
Bets
Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeVonta Smith from EV Insight
DeVonta SmithReceiving Yards Player Props – Week 19 Buccaneers vs. Eagles Right now, DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-145/+106). The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-145) after it opened @ 64.5 (-117). O/U 68.5 -115/-115 O/U 69.5 -110/-110 O/U 68.5 -145/106 O/U 67.5 -115/-115 Pros As far […]
FTN Staff