Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
NFL training camps started July 20, which means we are getting a steady stream of beat reports and highlight plays on social media. That, combined with the uptick in people starting to draft in fantasy football, is causing some big swings in ADP ahead of the 2024 season.
The preseason is just around the corner and roster cuts will be happening quickly after. This week’s iteration of the ADP Rumblings will be focused on the biggest movers since training camps kicked off.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (7/31)
Biggest Riser
Audric Estimé, RB, Denver Broncos
ADP: 190.7 (-17.5), RB58
Early beat reports have speculated that Javonte Williams is on the roster bubble, which has led fantasy managers to invest in late-round picks in Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estimé. Estimé has seen the biggest rise in fantasy rankings since the start of training camp, jumping up a round and a half since July 20.
Estimé was a fifth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after posting two strong seasons at Notre Dame. He played sparingly as a freshman (seven carries for 60 yards) before posting 366 carries for 2,261 yards and 29 touchdowns in his final two years. Estime didn’t provide much as a pass catcher (26 receptions for 277 yards and a score) but is far from a zero in that regard as well.
For fantasy, there is some risk in overinvesting in a fifth-round running back with the belief that he will overtake the backfield as a rookie. There will be many weeks for Denver to sort out the backfield and early training camp is peak news blurb season. At this point, Estimé is as likely to dominate the backfield as he is to be a third option behind Williams and McLaughlin (or Samaje Perine) on the depth chart.
The good news for fantasy managers is that even with a round-and-a-half increase over the last few weeks, Estimé’s price tag (RB58) is far from devastating if he doesn’t hit. Historically, the Sean Payton backfield is valuable in fantasy football, so taking a shot on him late in drafts is a shot worth taking.
Biggest Faller
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 160.2 (+15.8), RB50
The Kendre Miller hype has cooled considerably after he suffered an injury on the first day of training camp, eliciting a quote from the head coach stating how hard it is to make a team from the training room.
It certainly isn’t great news considering Miller’s well-documented struggles with health during his rookie season. In total, his rookie year ended with 41 carries for 156 yards and a touchdown on the ground with another 10 receptions for 117 yards in the air. There were high points (13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown in Week 18), but for the most part, it was a lost season.
The most recent injury (and quotes) has resulted in a 15-spot drop in ADP for Miller, which has made him more valuable for his believers in fantasy. However, Miller will need to heal quickly (and put together some strong preseason performances) for anyone to have faith in his ability to contribute to fantasy next season.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 157.1 (-3.7), QB20
There hasn’t been much movement among the quarterback ranks, making Deshaun Watson the biggest mover with just 3.7 spots gained since the kickoff to training camp.
Watson’s second season with the Browns was like his first, with Watson limited to just six games played. Statistically, there was very little difference between 2022 and 2023 for Watson. In two seasons with Cleveland, he’s attempted 341 passes for 2,217 yards and 14 touchdowns with nine interceptions. Watson attempted exactly one more pass in his second season for 13 more yards and one fewer interception. The reason for optimism for Watson (aside from his general health) is the resurgence of his rushing ability.
In 2023, Watson had 26 carries for 142 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaged over 20 yards per game as a rusher over his last six seasons. He also never had less than 4.9 yards per attempt on the ground in his career.
Watson is also entering one of the best passing situations of his career. The Browns have a strong offensive line and return their starters and key depth in the trenches. They also have their top three returning receivers (Amari Cooper, David Njoku and Elijah Moore) and added Jerry Jeudy to the receiving corps.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 166.9 (-8.4), RB53
Hope springs eternal once again as J.K. Dobbins enters training camp healthy and getting hyped up. It certainly helps that his new offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, is familiar with his play style and explosive running style after spending years together with the Baltimore Ravens.
Dobbins is practicing after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury after just 10 touches during the 2023 season. In four career seasons, Dobbins has played in just 10 games. His statistical production in that condensed time is impressive (234 carries for 1,347 yards and 12 touchdowns with 27 receptions for 177 yards and a receiving score), but he’s never found the ability to stay healthy. Dobbins has just one season (his rookie year) with more than eight games played and more than 100 carries.
Many will look at Dobbins and remember his explosive-play ability (he is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt in his career) compared to the rest of the Chargers’ running back depth chart and wonder if this could be the year that Dobbins can stay healthy and produce. However, Dobbins has now suffered several critical lower body injuries at the NFL level, any of which could have sapped his explosiveness.
At this point, Dobbins is a fine late-round flier to add to your team with hope for fantasy production, especially if you are willing to churn your bench if he starts slow. However, if his price continues to creep higher, it may be better to let somebody else assume the risk of an injury-prone running back competing with more reliable options.
Wide Receiver
DJ Chark Jr., Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 196.4 (-13.8), WR83
Like J.K. Dobbins, veteran receiver DJ Chark Jr. has seen his ADP climb now that training camp is providing clarity about the Chargers’ offense. During the first week, Chark ran with the starters after signing with the Chargers in May. Chark has primarily been getting first-team snaps with Joshua Palmer and rookie Ladd McConkey, ahead of 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston.
Chark’s best season was in 2019 when he caught 73 of 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. There have been many inconsistencies (and injuries since then), but he’s been able to provide some level of fantasy value during his last two seasons with the Lions and Panthers. Chark has at least 30 receptions and 500 receiving yards in the previous two years. He also has eight receiving touchdowns, five of which came in a bad Panthers offense.
Even though Chark is far from a great receiver, he’s beaten his current ADP in three of the last four seasons, including two seasons as a top-50 finisher. We don’t know how the Chargers passing attack will truly shake out, but taking the field stretcher attached to Justin Herbert isn’t the worst gamble to take.
Chark is certainly worth taking a shot on late in the draft for teams that are willing to be patient to see how his role with the Chargers will shake out in 2024.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
ADP: 170.5 (-2.9), TE20
Finding a late-round tight end this year is certainly a struggle after the youth resurgence at the position last year pushed all of the league’s young tight ends into the early rounds of the draft. One player who can provide upside at the position in the later rounds is Jets’ veteran Tyler Conklin.
Conklin has posted three straight seasons with 87 targets after a slow start to his career (43 targets in three seasons). He has also produced on that workload, posting three straight seasons with at least 58 receptions and 550 receiving yards. He also hit three touchdowns in both 2021 and 2022 before failing to find the end zone in 2023.
Garrett Wilson will certainly end up as the top target earner with the Jets in 2024 if he’s healthy, but the team’s target share is far less certain after that. Mike Williams is coming off an ACL injury and started training camp on the PUP list (he should be good by Week 1). Malachi Corley is a rookie from a small school who will need time to adapt to the NFL game. Conklin could very well establish himself as a secondary read in the passing attack and has shown the ability to be effective in the red zone.
There isn’t a ton of target competition for the Jets at the wide receiver position, so Conklin has an excellent chance to finish in the top-three in targets next season at the tight end position. He’s one of the last tight ends on the board that isn’t a total dart throw and is worth considering for teams that fade the tight end position until late in the draft.
