100 Questions: The Pressing Fantasy Football Issues Entering 2024

If you’re a nerd like me, you know that “42” is the ultimate answer to life, the universe and everything, and you also know that that answer was especially confounding because the people learned the answer before figuring out what the question was.

That’s because there’s an order to things. Ask something vague, get something vague back. That’s true in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, and it’s true in fantasy football. You can’t go about finding the answers in fantasy football before you know what the questions are.

Each year, I try to find the questions. I go team-by-team around the NFL to find the three biggest fantasy football questions for each franchise, plus four league-at-large questions, to get us to an even 100. I’m shooting for the things we actually need to worry about in fantasy, so this isn’t going to be “Is Lamar Jackson good?” Some questions have obvious answers, and that’s boring.

Each team will get its own article, so bookmark this page and follow along all through August as we cover all 32 teams around the league:

But first, we have to look big picture. Because there are some questions that can’t be covered in the team areas, and those might just be the most important ones:

100 Questions for Fantasy Football 2024

1. So Who Are We Taking First Overall?

Never in history has a question that matters for so few been discussed by so many. Only one person has the first overall pick in a fantasy draft, so definitionally, first overall only really matters for about 8-9% of drafters (figuring 12-team leagues are most common, but there are 10- and 14- and crazyhead 20-teamers out there). But still, it’s the foundation upon which a draft is built.

And of course, this year, there is, it seems, a very obvious answer. Christian McCaffrey was third overall in PPR points last year, and he did that in one fewer game than the two ahead of him (CeeDee Lamb and Josh Allen). Across the last two years combined, he’s nearly 200 points ahead of the No. 2 running back (McCaffrey 747.7 points, Austin Ekeler 558.1). Add in the depth at wide receiver at (especially) quarterback and the relative paucity of high-end running backs, and McCaffrey is the set answer here.

So, sub-question: Are there any challengers for first overall? Way more interesting, right? And by my figuring, we have a few candidates here:

• Breece Hall: Last year’s RB2 despite not even reaching 1,000 rushing yards or double-digit touchdowns and with a miserable quarterback situation, thanks in part to 76 receptions. Assuming Aaron Rodgers and the revamped Jets O-line boost the offense like they should, Hall has a sky-high ceiling.
• Bijan Robinson: We’re just going to pretend the whole Arthur Smith-ified Falcons offense of last year didn’t happen and remember what we thought about Robinson entering the league. Kirk Cousins should boost the offense, and a new coaching staff should know how to use him.
• CeeDee Lamb: Low-key the No. 17 PPR season of all time last year, including the No. 3 wide receiver season behind Cooper Kupp’s 2021 and Jerry Rice’s 1995. The Cowboys don’t have a lot of depth behind him, either.
• Tyreek Hill: Was on pace for a 2,000-yard season up until Week 14 (and had 12 touchdowns at that point), but late injuries forced him to miss a game and held him to a lowly (lol) 1,799 yards. If he’s healthy and still his elite self at 30 years old, there’s no real ceiling.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: Bold, maybe. But St. Brown is the best — and potentially only relevant — receiver on one of the best offenses with one of the best offensive lines. The Lions play almost all of their games indoors and/or in warm weather, and he has gotten steadily better over his three years. Relative long shot, but I’m in.

If I’m playing one league in 2024, I’m going McCaffrey first overall. But if I’m in, say, 10 leagues and somehow have the first pick in all of them (I’m a cheater and stacked the draft order draw, don’t tell anyone), I’m going McCaffrey first in about five of those 10 and sprinkling Hall, Robinson and, yes, St. Brown in the others. Eight or nine to running back and the other one or two to receiver.

2. Is Tight End Actually Deep Now?

Right to the answer, and it is: Sort of! (That’s the sort of hot takery you can only get around here, folks.) Last year’s TE6, David Njoku, put up 201.2 PPR points, the best point total for the No. 6 tight end in at least the last decade (and, who are we kidding, almost certainly ever). The same is true for the 177.1 points put up by the TE9, Jake Ferguson. In fact, every slot TE6-TE9 put up the most or second-most points for its slot in the last 10 years, and TEs 6-10 averaged 178.3 points, more than 30 points ahead of the same finishers in 2022. Sounds deeper than normal!

There’s a catch, though. Part of the sense of the position being deep is that the second tier at the position is scoring closer to the first tier. And that’s definitely true, in part because of everything I just said. But also, the second tier is closer to the top tier because we just didn’t get as many points from the top as normal. Sam LaPorta was the TE1 last year with 239.3 points, the first time since 2019 that the TE1 scored under 300 and the first time since 2017 it was under 250. Unless you think LaPorta has a whole new level to get to or that Travis Kelce rebounds to his younger self, the top tier is lower, and that artificially increases the appearance of depth.

On top of that, it’s really just that second tier of tight ends. The ranks of the TE2s, the non-starters, weren’t materially different from what that slot has done in the last decade:

The upshot of this? You can take a second-tier tight end maybe a bit earlier than you have the last few years. Go ahead and grab a Kyle Pitts or a George Kittle earlier than such tight ends have been going the last few years. But don’t necessarily expect that success to translate down. And, considering the likelihood that we won’t have a blow-it-out-of-the-water TE1, the aggregate ADP of the tight ends in 2024 should more or less match that of other recent seasons.

3. Should We Trust the Rookie QBs?

Something that you probably know but is fun to consider: Rank every quarterback my fantasy points scored in their rookie seasons, and you have to go down to No. 16 to find someone who debuted in a year that starts with “19” (Jim Kelly, 1986). Kelly and 1998 Peyton Manning are the only such seasons in the top 25. And then you have guys like Anthony Richardson, whose 72.7 points in four games would have worked out to over 300 in 17 games, and he missed time in all but one game.

This doesn’t mean that all the rookies are going to start right away, of course. Michael Penix Jr. is a big longshot to do so, and Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy increasingly look unlikely to start as well. But what it does mean is that we don’t really need to be gunshy about the ones who do start right away. Gone are the days where a rookie quarterback (or, let’s be real, most any rookie) needs to show it on the field before fantasy managers can invest. Yes, you’ll have the occasional Bryce Young, but then you’ll have the occasional Austin Ekeler who goes second overall and lets you down. And for at least another year or so, the “scared of a rookie” crowd is holding those guys in check. Jayden Daniels at QB14 in ADP, given what we know about his rushing? Absurd. Caleb Williams should be closer to the QB1 ranks than QB16. If we get confirmation Bo Nix will start, he’s a starter in superflex.

Don’t be scared of rookie quarterbacks. Becomes someone else won’t be, and they’ll reap the benefits.

4. What Else Could Change Between Now and the Start of the Season?

This is running at the start of August. The draft is behind us. The vast majority of free agency is as well. But still, the season is five weeks away. That’s plenty of time for news to come out that will change what (we think) we know now. Here are a few things to watch out for:

• Injuries. Obviously a big one. Around this time a year ago, we thought Nyheim Hines would have a pass-catching/return role in Buffalo. Tim Patrick was supposed to be a big part of the Denver offense. Then Hines had a jet ski accident and Patrick tore his Achilles. That gave James Cook more room for the Bills, and cleared a path for Marvin Mims Jr. to be the Broncos No. 3 receiver. No, those aren’t “change the whole tenor of football”-type moves, but we all remember things like Jordy Nelson’s preseason torn ACL in 2015, or when something like 47 different Ravens backs tore something in the preseason in 2021. We know most of the rosters right now. But one ill-fated step can screw up a season. And even if it isn’t a “change the course of history”-level injury, we saw Joe Burrow pull up lame in preseason last year, and that injury kept him from being himself at the start of the season.
• Trades. It doesn’t look like Brandon Aiyuk will be traded, but you never know. Beyton that, there’s no huge buzz right now on the trade market, at least as far as I’m aware of (unless you count the Davante Adams trade/not-a-trade talk, which seems far-fetched). Does that matter? Not really. Imagine if Jared Goff pulls up lame in preseason Week 1. Imagine if Garrett Wilson rolls his ankle and will be out a couple of months. There are teams with designs on competing but shallow depth charts at some positions where an injury will immediately spur action. Mac Jones, to pick a name, is a forgotten man as the backup to Trevor Lawrence. If he were to somehow be the starter in Detroit? He’s a fantasy asset. Root against it, but be ready to act.
• Job announcements. I broke down some of the training camp position battles to watch recently. The drafting community is torn on Zack Moss vs. Chase Brown, or on Keon Coleman vs. Khalil Shakir vs. Curtis Samuel. If we get clarity on how those jobs will shake out, those ADPs will separate.
• Suspensions and holdouts. As far as I know, the only noteworthy-for-fantasy player out there who might face a suspension is Rashee Rice, and even that one might be pushed back while the league waits for the legal process to play out. But if we suddenly have a month or more without the Chiefs’ WR1, Marquise Brown and/or Xavier Worthy become that much more valuable. And then there are the holdouts/hold-ins. Guys like Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase. If Aiyuk sits, well, hello Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and/or Jacob Cowing. You can do that exercise with every receiver and his next-men-up. Or Trent Williams! The 49ers line should be better this year, but it’s still anchored by the 36-year-old Hall of Famer. If his holdout extends, we might want to be a bit warier of Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey.