2024 Fantasy Football Busts

What follows are the 10 potential fantasy football busts that scare me the most in the top 125 in Underdog ADP. After all, as the old proverb goes, you cannot win your fantasy football drafts in the first few rounds, but you can lose them.

Fantasy Football Busts 2024

QB Fantasy Bust Candidates

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 47.4

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) leaps over Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) during the first half of a NFL football preseason game, Thursday, Aug. 15, 2019, in Baltimore. The play was called back on a penalty on the Ravens. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

I’m optimistic that Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken can evolve in a way that his predecessor Greg Roman couldn’t after Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season in 2019. But Monken cannot control where Jackson starts his drives, and the star quarterback enjoyed an all-time head start thanks to the takeaway machine that was the Ravens defense in 2023. The Ravens started 32 of their drives in opposing territory last season, three more than the Saints in second place and six more than the Jaguars in third place. The Ravens are the only team to hit that 30 benchmark in the 2020s. And the 2021 Bucs team that came the closest — they had 29 drives that started in opposing territory — saw their quarterback Tom Brady decline from 45 to 26 total touchdowns the following year. Jackson could continue his MVP-caliber play and still lose a chunk of his 29 touchdowns. And even with his higher rushing floor, that would undermine his top four quarterback ADP.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

ADP: 69.9

C.J. Stroud seemed destined for greatness in his rookie season. But his top six quarterback ADP assumes he has already reached that full potential, and I’m not convinced he has. Stroud was sensitive to his matchups as a rookie. He beat up on bottom-third DVOA defenses with 648 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in two games against the Colts and 336 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. But he struggled in starts against top 10 opponents, throwing for a modest 242 and 91 yards and no touchdowns against the Ravens and Jets. That’s very normal for even the best young quarterbacks. But it threatens a Year 2 letdown when Stroud faces more top 10 defenses in the Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Chiefs and Ravens in what looks like the biggest strength of schedule ramp-up among returning starters. By all means, build some best ball Texans stacks. But in season-long fantasy, I would skip Stroud for some later value picks like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert.

RB Fantasy Bust Candidates

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 23.4

As the most efficient runner in 2023 with an injury-limited workload, Achane is a prototypical “league winner” pick. But he is also a leading bust candidate, and not just for injury concerns with his undersized 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame. Achane racked up a ridiculous 54.3% of his rushing yards on breakaway carries of 15 or more yards. That was miles ahead of Breece Hall in second place at the position at 40.4%. Meanwhile, Achane enjoyed his two most prolific rushing performances with 354 rushing yards and five total touchdowns in two games against the Giants and Broncos, both bottom four teams in run defense DVOA. With a little less luck and a bit harder schedule, Achane could perform more like Jaylen Warren in 2024. And while that wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Dolphins, it would sting the fantasy players who select him in the first round.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 69.0

INGLEWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 23: Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) during the Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers on October 23, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire) — INGLEWOOD, CA – OCTOBER 23: Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) during the Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers on October 23, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Walker is much more elusive. He doubled up his teammate Zach Charbonnet with a 26.9% versus a 13.9% avoided tackle rate in 2023 and ranked second among backs with 100 or more carries. Charbonnet is more powerful. He bested Walker with 2.6 versus 2.4 yards after contact per attempt last season and tied for 12th best at the position. As a football watcher, it’s no contest. Walker plays a more visually appealing brand of running back. But for a football coach, it’s less definitive. Walker spurs shorter drives with more negative and more explosive runs. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb may prefer to try to stay ahead of the sticks and run complement to his conservative and accurate quarterback Geno Smith. We can only guess. Grubb is a first-time NFL coordinator, and his stated desire to be a “physical team” is a Press Conferencing 101 cliché. But Walker is the rare RB2 with a threat to his starting role. And that makes him a bust risk.

D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

ADP: 92.6

Swift saw the second-highest 2.61 yards before contact per attempt among regular backs in 2023, playing behind a standout Eagles offensive line and the RPO read king Jalen Hurts. This year, he’ll have less certain circumstances on a new-look Bears team with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. It could work out. Swift doubled up his 2023 receiving yardage in his peak pass-catching season in Detroit. But the veteran’s supporting cast shift mirrors that of his Eagles predecessor Miles Sanders. Sanders saw a top-five yards before contact season in 2022 cut in half on a less talented Panthers team in 2023, and he lost his presumed starting job to an ascending new teammate in Chuba Hubbard. Swift is priced like an unquestioned starter. But Bears incumbent Khalil Herbert matched Swift with 4.6 yards per attempt in 2023 despite more difficult rushing attempts, and Roschon Johnson has a stellar reputation as a pass protector. Swift could easily split backfield reps, and a time share would render him a bust at his fantasy draft position.

WR Fantasy Bust Candidates

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

ADP: 15.0

INGLEWOOD, CA - SEPTEMBER 18: Atlanta Falcons Wide Receiver Drake London (5) runs the ball during an NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams on September 18, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire) — INGLEWOOD, CA – SEPTEMBER 18: Atlanta Falcons Wide Receiver Drake London (5) runs the ball during an NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams on September 18, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire)

A healthy Kirk Cousins should transform the Falcons offense, but he may not help all of his receivers equally. Previous quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke had their hardest times targeting tight end Kyle Pitts. The former No. 4 pick saw a meager 64.0% catchable target rate in 2023, easily the lowest among tight ends with 50 or more targets. In contrast, the No. 1 wideout London saw a 71.6% catchable target rate that was a bit above average — 37th among the 80 receivers with 50 or more targets. London will see more targets and score more touchdowns if Cousins throws as often and as often in the red zone as he did in Minnesota. But the third-year wideout has not suffered the same sabotage as his teammate Pitts. And that spurs his bust potential if he cannot play like the next Justin Jefferson his top 10 receiver ADP is asking him to be.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 57.3

Injuries aside, Reed played with the same pass catchers in 2023 that he is poised to play with in 2024:

Christian Watson, 6-foot-4, 208 pounds
Romeo Doubs, 6-2, 201
Dontayvion Wicks, 6-1, 206
Jayden Reed, 5-11, 187
Luke Musgrave, 6-6, 253
Tucker Kraft, 6-5, 254

Who would you expect to lead that receiver room in touchdowns? Christian Watson? Romeo Doubs? End zone targets trended that way. Doubs and Watson paced the team with 15 and 14, well ahead of Reed with just 9. But somehow, Reed led the room with 10 touchdowns and even lapped most of his teammates. Doubs scored eight times, and no one else bested five touchdowns. Reed can belie his size with a slot role that keeps him clear of most top cover corners. But I believe it’s a bad bet for him to match and maybe even approach his rookie touchdown total in his sophomore season. A PPR format will help. But Reed’s ADP asks him to outperform some more well-rounded receivers like Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and his teammate Watson, and I think that’s a tall order.

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 63.7

Is there such a thing as too fast? Eleanor Roosevelt may have thought not, but the last decade of sub-4.32-second-40, top-two-round receiver prospects has me questioning that conventional wisdom. Breshad Perriman, John Ross, Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, Henry Ruggs and Tyquan Thornton ranged from mild disappointments to out-and-out busts, and almost all of them owe some blame to some combination of hamstring, knee, groin and foot injuries. Worthy has the highest fantasy ceiling of his contemporaries with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. But his string of offseason hamstring injuries has me too nervous to pull that trigger, especially with his veteran teammate Marquise Brown at a similar draft tier with a proven health track record and plenty of room to improve with his circumstances.

TE Fantasy Bust Candidates

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

ADP: 36.6

DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 17: Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs with the ball after catching a pass during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions on September 17, 2023 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire) — DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 17: Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs with the ball after catching a pass during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions on September 17, 2023 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

LaPorta invites a comparison to Rob Gronkowski. Both tight ends were early second-round picks, and both caught an impressive 10 touchdowns in their rookie seasons despite playing a position with a notoriously steep learning curve. Gronkowski answered his rookie year with 17 sophomore touchdowns and a Hall of Fame career. It’s little surprise then that LaPorta is the first tight end off draft boards. But I’m not convinced he should be. Gronkowski teased his touchdown barrage with a heavy rookie red zone role. He caught 7 of his 10 touchdowns that year inside of 10 yards from the end zone. In contrast, LaPorta scored 6 of his 10 rookie touchdowns from 10 or more yards from the end zone and racked up 4.31 expected touchdown surplus that was easily the highest at his position. A handful of players have beaten the regression odds consistently in their careers. But most players with LaPorta’s touchdown profile see their touchdown rates decline in their subsequent seasons. And if he scores 7 instead of 13 touchdowns in 2024, LaPorta will likely disappoint his third-round draft selectors.

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 47.2

McBride became a top-four tight end after teammate Zach Ertz strained his quad in Week 7. But even with Ertz out of Arizona, I wouldn’t assume that the sophomore’s exceptional second-half splits established a permanent new standard. McBride racked up nearly half of his 655 yards and scored two of his three touchdowns from his final 10 games with No. 1 receiver Marquise Brown out with a heel injury. McBride may have been a No. 1 target by default. The Cardinals will have more options in 2024 after spending a top four draft pick on Marvin Harrison, Jr. That won’t render McBride an afterthought. But the third-year tight end will likely need to excel to best the established stars like Mark Andrews and George Kittle behind him in ADP. And I think that’s a risky proposition.