Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Arizona Cardinals.
As you read this (well, if you’re reading this the day it’s published — otherwise, add a few), it has been 1,013 days since the Cardinals beat the Houston Texans 31-5 on Oct. 24, 2021. That day, the Cardinals went to 7-0. They were the only unbeaten team in the league, averaging 32.1 points per game (fourth most) and allowing 16.3 (tied for the best).
What’s happened since? Well, they went 4-7 the rest of the 2021 season, then followed that up with consecutive 4-13 seasons. That’s 12-33 total. Kliff Kingsbury got fired, Kyler Murray tore his ACL, and guys like Joshua Dobbs, Clayton Tune and Colt McCoy have started games for them.
But now Murray is back, Marvin Harrison Jr. is in town, and Jonathan Gannon is entering his second season as head coach. Can the Cardinals turn their fortunes around?
The Questions
5. Is Trey McBride a True Top-Tier Tight End Now?
6. Is There a Second Receiver Here?
7. What Will Trey Benson Do to James Conner?
100 Questions for 2024: Arizona Cardinals
Is Trey McBride a True Top-Tier Tight End Now?
Zach Ertz injured his quad in Week 7, ending his Cardinals tenure. At the time, Trey McBride had 15 receptions on 21 targets for 170 scoreless yards through 7 games. He was TE30 in fantasy. It wasn’t very good!
The rest of the way, he had 655 yards on 66 receptions (85 targets). He only scored 3 touchdowns, but he had double-digit targets twice and at least 7 in eight of 10 games. Only David Njoku and Evan Engram outscored him in PPR the rest of the way. The drafting community believes, with McBride currently the TE3 in drafts heading into 2024.
Read what I wrote about his statline again, though. Massive target share, but low touchdowns. That’s a fine recipe for a quantity-over-quality fantasy producer if you need it. But it’s not the recipe Trey McBride has in 2024. Not with Marvin Harrison Jr. in town. It’s not a deep group of pass-catcher in Arizona, but Harrison will soak up a lot of what McBride got last year. Betting on McBride to get the workload he got last year is a bad bet. He’s a starting tight end. He’s not the No. 3 tight end.
Is There a Second Receiver Here?
This question is very related to the first one! So we know Harrison is going to get a buttload (technical term) of targets. And even if I’m not a big believer in Trey McBride, he’s due for a lot as well. So the question is whether that’s the extent of the target tree we need to care about in Arizona, or whether there’s anyone else in the passing game we need to keep an eye on.
Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Zay Jones have the best claims here. Jones is the biggest name, but his career has been mostly disappointing with a few blips. Dortch is the fun name, but as a certified itty-bitty (he’s 5-foot-7), he’s never gotten the kind of work that would make him worth a fantasy look (762 yards since entering the league five years ago). That leaves Wilson, last year’s third-round pick. He was very inconsistent as a rookie, but he had flashes (7-7-76-2 in Week 4, 10-12-130-1 in Weeks 17-18 combined). Is that enough for you to draft him in fantasy? Almost certainly not. But in deeper leagues, there are definitely worse flyers to take a shot on. And if he starts the season hot (if, say, Harrison struggles in his debut), Wilson has a shot at being a hot waiver claim early in the year.
What Will Trey Benson Do to James Conner?
Man, that phrasing sounds like I’m worried about Trey Benson taking a tire iron to Conner or something. (I suppose anything’s possible!) The Cardinals drafted Benson in the third round back in April, giving them their first real handcuff since adding Conner before the 2021 season. In three years with Conner, Chase Edmonds in 2021 is the only other running back in Arizona to top 300 rushing yards in a season, and of course he was primarily a receiving back. All the attention for Benson has been about his handcuff value — Conner has missed time in every season of his career, and our Dan Fornek ranked Benson as the No. 4 handcuff entering the season. And to be sure, Conner’s injury history makes Benson very appealing as a handcuff. But there’s another reason beyond just “he can play if No. 1 guy gets banged up” why a team might go out of its way to get a second running back. If the Cardinals want to guard against a Conner injury, the first thing to do is have a competent No. 2, but the second thing is to use that competent No. 2 to spell Conner and keep him fresh. Our FTN Fantasy projections have Benson slated for 139.8 carries and 30.2 targets compared to 184.4 and 37.4, respectively, for Conner. That would be a drop of more than 20 carries from Conner’s 2023, when he played only 13 games. In other words, Benson’s arrival makes Conner’s stock drop. The veteran finished last year as the RB18 and is being drafted as the RB21. Does that seem like enough of a drop to you? It doesn’t to me.
