Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Entering training camp, I wrote up a few of my favorite “Late-Round Dart Throws” for best ball, picking out a handful of players who are going undrafted in most lobbies. My goal was to avoid dead roster spots as much as possible, while also targeting players with ambiguous roles on their respective offenses who could see their stock rise the closer we get to the start of the season.
If you’re in the best ball weeds, you may have heard of the phrase “scroll the eff down,” which is basically a term promoting drafters to get weird with their final pick and gain some leverage against the field. In a large field tournament like Best Ball Mania, differentiating yourself from your opponents is critical, especially once you get to the playoffs where the players with the highest advance rate appear on multiple rosters. We only have to look back at last season, to see the value of hitting on an 18th-rounder who was undrafted for most of the offseason, with players such as Kyren Williams and Puka Nucua (contentedly from the same team) who finished inside the top six in their positions.
With more information and further clarity, I wanted to add a few more players I’m tacking on to the end of my rosters to close out the draft season. As I mentioned in the previous article, players with an ADP outside of the top 210 are the ones to attack, left for dead for the majority of the offseason.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 211.9, RB66
The Jaguars have been adamant about scaling back Travis Etienne’s workload, who started to fade down the stretch, handling the third most touches (325) on the third-highest snap share (73%) among all running backs in 2023. Head coach Doug Pederson has gone to bat for second-year back Tank Bigsby on numerous occasions, speaking glowingly on his progression throughout the offseason, looking to expand his role and keep Etienne healthy.
We saw similar hype behind Bigsby as a rookie, who opened the season as the clear RB2, slowly getting phased out of the offense, eventually losing his job to D’Ernest Johnson. Over his last eight games, Bigsby was outsnapped by Johnson seven times, listed as a healthy scratch in favor of the veteran in Week 16. There is still a risk that Johnson, who was brought back in free agency again vaults his way up the depth chart. However, as things stand, the 2023 third-round pick has a pole position as the backup to Etienne.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 213.9, WR95
The Bengals’ 2023 sixth-round pick, Andrei Iosivas was largely a non-factor as a rookie, totaling just 15 grabs on 25 targets for 116 yards and four touchdowns. He was the fourth on the team in snaps among wide receivers, posting a 30%-plus snap share just three times in 16 games, finding it difficult to see the field with everyone healthy. However, over his last two games, Iosivas exceeded a 70% snap share twice, finding the end zone twice on a season-high five grabs in the season finale. Entering the 2024 NFL Draft, Iosivas looked to be the favorite to take over the Tyler Boyd role in the slot until Cincinnati spent a Day 2 pick on Jermaine Burton in the third round (No. 80). Burton fell down the board due to off-field concerns but was a former four-star prospect, coming off a career-year, totaling 39 receptions for 798 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while averaging a ludicrous 20.5 yards per catch in his final season at Alabama.
Both Iosivas and Burton had seen meaningful playing time with the first-team offense throughout training camp in the absence of not only Boyd but also Ja’Marr Chase, who is currently “holding in,” seeking an extension. Per The Athletic beat reporter Paul Dehner, Isovas may have played his way into a starting role calling the “offensive star” of training camp. Dehner went on to say, “The more Iosivas stacks practices, the more you wonder whether he won’t just soak up nearly all of Boyd’s 824 vacated snaps from last season.” The second-year receiver has a chance to further widen the gap between himself and the rookie, with Burton set to miss an undisclosed amount of time after suffering an ankle injury earlier this week. Iosivas has already won the confidence of his quarterback Joe Burrow, who is expecting “a big year” from his wideout.
Dylan Laube, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 214.6, RB70
After unsuccessful talks of an extension with Josh Jacobs, the Raiders did very little to address the running back position this offseason, signing Alexander Mattison in free agency and selecting University of New Hampshire product Dylan Laube at 208 overall. It’s hard to get too excited about a sixth-round pick, but Laube was phenomenal in his last two collegiate seasons, leading the entire FCS in scrimmage yards in 2022 and 2023. He did a little bit of everything for the Wildcats, leading the team in both rushing and receiving last season, while also contributing on special teams as the primary punt and kick returner. However, what separated Laube from the rest of the class was his prowess as a pass catcher, totaling a career-high 68 receptions for nearly 699 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, averaging nearly 70 receiving yards (69.9) and a receiving touchdown per game. With an all-around skill set, he seems to be a lock to make the roster despite the less-than-ideal draft capital. When asked about the rookie back, head coach Antonio Pierce stated he’s been “making the most of his opportunities,” looking like he belongs at the next level.
Per Vegas Nation beat reporter Vincent Bonsignore, Laube has already been getting reps on third downs with the first-team offense, making his way up the depth chart.
It wouldn’t at all be surprising to see Laube usurp 31-year-old veteran Ameer Abdullah as the primary pass-catching back — Abdullah outsnapped Zamir White 113-8 on third downs last season.
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