Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Houston Texans are on their way to building a special secondary. The Denver Broncos are in dire need of a secondary rebuild. The NFC South teams are benefiting wildly from beating up on the Panthers. And if 2023 was any indication, the Ravens and Browns are going to duke it out again for the league’s best secondary in 2024.
Closing out our series on slot/wide DVOA splits, we flip to the other side of the ball and look at defensive performances. If you missed our previous discussions on wide receiver, quarterback, and tight end/running back play, they serve as good primers for how we will be discussing the topic. However, this is the first time where we pretty much start from scratch when it comes to discussing performance. Past articles had the chance to build off previous understandings of offensive scheme and how that dictates performance at respective positions. This, however, allows us a brand-new perspective on how teams are addressing offensive attacks, which teams are excelling, and which teams are in need of a fix. Even our previous lists on defensive DVOA didn’t give us the best indication of performance here. Differentiating between slot and wide splits requires a pass, eliminating some degree of a team’s pass rush from the equation.
Our work begins with a look at all targets each defense faced to players lined up in the slot and out wide. We have listed each team’s total passes to each receiver position, their respective DVOA, the total interceptions forced at each alignment, the percentage of slot and wide targets as a portion of all total passes faced, and the difference between slot and wide DVOA performance. Because we are on the defensive side of the ball, negative DVOA indicates better defensive performances.
Slot/Wide Difference by Team
At the league level, the difference between slot and wide DVOA performance is as close as it has been in recent years. In 2021 and 2022, DVOA performances were significantly better out wide than they were in the slot. 2021 DVOA out wide was -3.7% compared to 3.6% in the slot, while 2022 saw a -4.8% DVOA out wide and a 4.2% in the slot. This year, though, the difference is less than a percent – 0.1% wide and 1.0% in slot. Part of that additional production comes from an improved receiver talent across the board, along with a sizable difference in completion percentage (5.7% more in the slot) and yards after the catch (0.5 more yards per catch in the slot). The gap is also closing on air yards, with 2.5 yards difference in average depth of target.
Teams in this next table are in order by how much their DVOA vs. the slot was better than DVOA against receivers lined up wide.
| Defensive DVOA vs. Slot/Wide, 2023 | |||||||||
| Team | Slot DVOA | Slot Tgt | Slot INT | Wide DVOA | Wide Tgt | Wide INT | Slot% | Wide% | DVOA Dif (Slot – Wide) |
| DEN | -14.8% | 155 | 5 | 6.3% | 220 | 5 | 28.1% | 39.9% | -21.1% |
| CAR | -7.0% | 115 | 6 | 11.8% | 211 | 1 | 24.8% | 45.6% | -18.8% |
| TEN | -11.3% | 159 | 2 | 6.4% | 267 | 3 | 28.5% | 47.8% | -17.7% |
| IND | -12.2% | 143 | 7 | 5.2% | 237 | 4 | 25.6% | 42.5% | -17.4% |
| ARI | -10.0% | 126 | 1 | 6.8% | 233 | 7 | 25.9% | 47.8% | -16.8% |
| HOU | -15.1% | 188 | 6 | -0.3% | 192 | 8 | 33.6% | 34.3% | -14.8% |
| JAX | -6.7% | 161 | 3 | 2.8% | 251 | 10 | 27.1% | 42.2% | -9.5% |
| NYJ | -5.1% | 157 | 7 | 3.2% | 169 | 5 | 31.6% | 34.0% | -8.3% |
| LAR | -2.1% | 163 | 3 | 5.3% | 267 | 6 | 28.0% | 45.9% | -7.4% |
| MIN | 2.7% | 177 | 2 | 8.3% | 257 | 8 | 30.5% | 44.3% | -5.6% |
| NE | -2.0% | 152 | 4 | 3.6% | 249 | 4 | 27.7% | 45.4% | -5.6% |
| SF | -2.3% | 183 | 6 | 2.2% | 261 | 14 | 30.0% | 42.9% | -4.5% |
| DAL | -2.4% | 139 | 3 | 1.2% | 224 | 11 | 27.9% | 44.9% | -3.6% |
| MIA | -4.9% | 181 | 5 | -2.9% | 237 | 7 | 33.0% | 43.2% | -2.0% |
| WAS | 2.2% | 159 | 1 | 3.6% | 252 | 7 | 27.8% | 44.1% | -1.4% |
| PHI | 3.1% | 227 | 5 | 3.3% | 270 | 4 | 35.3% | 42.0% | -0.2% |
| Team | Slot DVOA | Slot Tgt | Slot INT | Wide DVOA | Wide Tgt | Wide INT | Slot% | Wide% | DVOA Dif (Slot – Wide) |
| CLE | -1.0% | 142 | 5 | -0.9% | 231 | 10 | 27.3% | 44.3% | -0.1% |
| NYG | 3.6% | 173 | 8 | -0.7% | 246 | 9 | 30.8% | 43.9% | 4.3% |
| BAL | 2.5% | 189 | 8 | -2.0% | 269 | 7 | 30.6% | 43.6% | 4.5% |
| BUF | 0.3% | 176 | 4 | -6.2% | 202 | 9 | 33.1% | 38.0% | 6.5% |
| GB | 6.6% | 139 | 4 | -0.2% | 217 | 3 | 27.5% | 43.0% | 6.8% |
| LV | 5.7% | 144 | 3 | -1.5% | 228 | 10 | 26.7% | 42.3% | 7.2% |
| KC | 3.5% | 179 | 4 | -4.3% | 207 | 3 | 33.0% | 38.2% | 7.8% |
| CIN | 4.3% | 167 | 4 | -4.9% | 227 | 9 | 31.1% | 42.3% | 9.2% |
| DET | 7.5% | 183 | 4 | -2.7% | 244 | 9 | 31.8% | 42.4% | 10.2% |
| LAC | 9.7% | 165 | 4 | -2.4% | 235 | 5 | 28.2% | 40.1% | 12.1% |
| NO | 0.1% | 180 | 8 | -12.3% | 221 | 7 | 33.3% | 40.9% | 12.4% |
| CHI | 8.4% | 170 | 8 | -4.7% | 252 | 11 | 28.5% | 42.3% | 13.1% |
| SEA | 8.0% | 181 | 4 | -5.1% | 230 | 5 | 31.5% | 40.0% | 13.1% |
| PIT | 11.4% | 155 | 4 | -1.8% | 242 | 11 | 27.9% | 43.5% | 13.2% |
| TB | 8.9% | 191 | 5 | -5.5% | 259 | 5 | 32.3% | 43.8% | 14.4% |
| ATL | 7.8% | 187 | 1 | -12.2% | 197 | 4 | 35.3% | 37.2% | 20.0% |
| NFL Tot | 0.3% | 5306 | 144 | 0.1% | 7504 | 221 | 29.9% | 42.3% | 0.2% |
The Houston Texans’ concerted effort to improve their secondary is still a work in progress, but it’s beginning to show signs of life in the slot. The Texans have finished 20th or worse in defensive passing DVOA five straight seasons, with a slight dip year-over-year between 2022 and 2023. However, Houston finished 2023 with a league-leading -15.1% DVOA while still seeing the fourth-most targets to the slot in the league (188) and allowing a top-10 highest air yards to the slot (9.2). Part of that coincides with the Texans’ drafting effort in the last few years, most notably beginning with the drafting of Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre in 2022. Slot responsibilities in Houston, though, almost exclusively fell on journeyman cornerback Tavierre Thomas last season. Thomas saw a team-high 203 snaps in the slot in 2023 and posted a -23.6% DVOA on those snaps, fourth best in the league defending the slot. Thomas has since joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished 2023 allowing a third-worst 8.9% DVOA. Houston will have to replace Thomas’ slot production with a combination of Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson, and Myles Bryant (we’ll talk about why he’s not the answer later).
Pittsburgh comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum, a league-worst 11.4% DVOA despite seeing a below-average number of slot targets in 2023. The Steelers spent 2023 in less of a secondary rebuild and more of a secondary re-tooling, balancing young talent with veteran free agent plug-ins. Of the four Pittsburgh cornerbacks who qualified for coverage DVOA last year, though, only Joey Porter Jr. remains on the roster this season. The Steelers shed a combined 2,600 defensive snaps this offseason through cuts and free agency. Some, like Chandon Sullivan, were situationally exceptional. His -40.4% DVOA in the slot led all defensive backs with at least 100 slots snaps last year. Others, like Levi Wallace, are gone for good reason. His 109.8% performance in the slot single-handedly dragged the Steelers’ coverage DVOA up, ranking fifth-highest among any player with at least 15 slot snaps.
Out wide, you don’t want to step foot in the NFC South … unless it’s to play the Panthers. Three of the top four teams by DVOA out wide hail from the division, with New Orleans and Atlanta really separating themselves from the rest of the division. Carolina, on the other hand, is dead last. Are the Saints, Falcons, and Buccaneers getting a bit of juice from playing against the Panthers offense twice a year? Absolutely. Carolina put up combined DVOAs of -41.9% (vs. New Orleans), -53.6% (vs. Tampa Bay), and -65.3% (vs. Atlanta) against their division rivals. New Orleans and Atlanta also benefited from playing some of the easiest schedules in the league last year. That doesn’t mean they are slouches, though. The Saints combination of Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu is a highly formidable pair, while Atlanta boasts three different corners with a DVOA out wide of -8% or better. Carolina, on the other hand, has to pretty much improve all over the field. A midseason acquisition of Shaq Leonard gave the Panthers their first cornerback with a negative DVOA out wide (min. 100 snaps).
Looking at slot/wide DVOA differential, the Denver Broncos secondary finished 2023 as the most slot-heavy group in the league. What used to be such a strength for the Broncos began to deteriorate in 2023 and might get even worse after this past offseason. Denver finished with the second-best DVOA (-14.8%) out of the slot, although it comes on a slightly reduced sample size (155 slot targets vs. a 165 league average). That performance coincided with the third-lowest completion percentage allowed in the slot and a top-ten lowest YAC per reception. Most of that responsibility fell on the shoulders of 2022 UDFA Ja’Quan McMillian, who saw 377 slot snaps last season. However, the Broncos were decimated by teams out wide. Despite having some positive performances in two Easton Stick-led Chargers outings and a Browns team juggling P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Denver still managed to allow DVOA performances of 25% or better to seven different teams. Part of this comes from an uncharacteristic statistical down year from Pat Surtain II, but weak safety play and a lack of corner depth led to tough assignments all season. That issue only gets exacerbated by an overhaul in the secondary. Sean Payton cut Kareem Jackson shortly after the more notable Russell Wilson release, then let Fabian Moreau and Justin Simmons walk in free agency. Those roles are now being plugged by Levi Wallace and Brandon Jones.
Atlanta finished as the most wide-heavy team in the league. Part of it gets exaggerated by just how good the Falcons were out wide, but there really wasn’t any good option for Atlanta covering the middle of the field. AJ Terrell, Atlanta’s best cornerback, got gashed for an 82.3% DVOA on 33 snaps in the slot. Richie Grant (68.0% DVOA in slot) and Dee Alford (13.3%) were the only two Falcons secondary members with at least 100 coverage snaps in the slot. Jeff Okudah, posting Atlanta’s only negative DVOA in the slot at -9.0%, saw just 20 snaps lined up there.
Individual DB Performances
Let us now take a look at individual defensive back performances. Defensive backs across the league are becoming increasingly specialized, either mostly playing slot or out wide. Differentiating DVOA performance across slot and perimeter coverage gives us an idea of player utilization and where some of the league’s best performers do their best work.
| Top 15 DBs In Slot By DVOA (min. 200 Coverage Snaps in Slot) | |||||
| Player | Team | Cov Snp | DVOA | Slot Snp | Slot% |
| Kenny Moore | IND | 533 | -40.0% | 418 | 78.4% |
| Greg Newsome | CLE | 429 | -35.7% | 246 | 57.3% |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | 400 | -32.6% | 353 | 88.3% |
| Tavierre Thomas | HOU | 216 | -23.6% | 203 | 94.0% |
| Ja’Sir Taylor | LAC | 335 | -23.0% | 289 | 86.3% |
| Kyle Hamilton | BAL | 310 | -22.9% | 251 | 81.0% |
| Taron Johnson | BUF | 541 | -11.1% | 455 | 84.1% |
| Jalen Thompson | ARI | 279 | -10.4% | 225 | 80.6% |
| Devon Witherspoon | SEA | 484 | -9.7% | 281 | 58.1% |
| Ja’Quan McMillian | DEN | 410 | -8.6% | 377 | 92.0% |
| Deommodore Lenoir | SF | 609 | -8.1% | 238 | 39.1% |
| Quentin Lake | LAR | 278 | -7.6% | 242 | 87.1% |
| Troy Hill | CAR | 270 | -6.7% | 209 | 77.4% |
| Cobie Durant | LAR | 396 | -6.1% | 225 | 56.8% |
| Christian Izien | TB | 445 | -5.4% | 397 | 89.2% |
| Bottom 15 DBs in Slot By DVOA (min. 200 Coverage Snaps in Slot) | |||||
| Player | Team | Cov Snp | DVOA | Slot Snp | Slot% |
| Myles Bryant | NE | 431 | 19.5% | 349 | 81.0% |
| Dee Alford | ATL | 309 | 13.3% | 279 | 90.3% |
| Josh Metellus | MIN | 380 | 10.2% | 262 | 68.9% |
| Kader Kohou | MIA | 543 | 9.5% | 372 | 68.5% |
| Jourdan Lewis | DAL | 401 | 8.0% | 355 | 88.5% |
| Alontae Taylor | NO | 535 | 7.9% | 427 | 79.8% |
| Cordale Flott | NYG | 295 | 7.2% | 250 | 84.7% |
| Nate Hobbs | LV | 426 | 6.6% | 327 | 76.8% |
| Arthur Maulet | BAL | 265 | 6.1% | 246 | 92.8% |
| Benjamin St-Juste | WAS | 569 | 3.3% | 212 | 37.3% |
| Tre Herndon | JAX | 341 | 1.6% | 303 | 88.9% |
| Kyler Gordon | CHI | 412 | 1.3% | 358 | 86.9% |
| Keisean Nixon | GB | 462 | 0.6% | 394 | 85.3% |
| Trent McDuffie | KC | 514 | -1.1% | 331 | 64.4% |
| Mike Hilton | CIN | 477 | -2.0% | 410 | 86.0% |
Houston might be the best defense in the slot, but the third-best Indianapolis Colts defense boasts the best slot defender. Kenny Moore’s -40.0% DVOA performance in the slot is not just an impressive peak performance, it also flexes Moore’s consistency. Moore edges out Greg Newsome in the DVOA department while playing 418 slot snaps to Newsome’s 246. On the other end, Myles Bryant should probably have starting corner responsibilities stripped from him. The player was a victim of the Patriots’ injury-riddled defensive back room, but that does not make up for a league-worst 19.5% DVOA out of the slot, six percentage points worse than second place Dee Alford.
As an aside, hats off to the do-it-all defensive back Kyle Hamilton. Baltimore lined up Hamilton everywhere from the slot to out wide, the box, free safety, and even on the line of scrimmage. Being able to line up anywhere is one thing, but actually performing at an elite level is another. Hamilton finished sixth among all defensive backs (first among safeties) in the slot. His six total snaps out wide also resulted in a league best -70.3% DVOA.
| Top 15 DBs Out Wide By DVOA (min. 200 Coverage Snaps Wide) | |||||
| Player | Team | Cov Snp | DVOA | Wide Snp | Wide% |
| Jaylon Johnson | CHI | 490 | -53.3% | 469 | 95.7% |
| Marcus Peters | LV | 380 | -42.4% | 360 | 94.7% |
| Rasul Douglas | GB/BUF | 536 | -39.4% | 497 | 92.7% |
| Jack Jones | NE/LV | 286 | -36.7% | 265 | 92.7% |
| Marlon Humphrey | BAL | 343 | -34.8% | 306 | 89.2% |
| Denzel Ward | CLE | 360 | -33.8% | 339 | 94.2% |
| Ahmad Gardner | NYJ | 516 | -32.9% | 472 | 91.5% |
| Ronald Darby | BAL | 280 | -30.6% | 275 | 98.2% |
| Derek Stingley | HOU | 373 | -29.7% | 347 | 93.0% |
| Jalen Ramsey | MIA | 338 | -29.4% | 326 | 96.4% |
| Marshon Lattimore | NO | 371 | -27.5% | 349 | 94.1% |
| Martin Emerson | CLE | 499 | -24.9% | 473 | 94.8% |
| Kendall Fuller | WAS | 573 | -23.1% | 544 | 94.9% |
| L’Jarius Sneed | KC | 543 | -21.3% | 506 | 93.2% |
| Christian Benford | BUF | 492 | -20.8% | 481 | 97.8% |
| Bottom 15 DBs Out Wide By DVOA (min. 200 Coverage Snaps Wide) | |||||
| Player | Team | Cov Snp | DVOA | Wide Snp | Wide% |
| Marco Wilson | ARI/NE | 350 | 60.9% | 327 | 93.4% |
| Benjamin St-Juste | WAS | 569 | 48.0% | 317 | 55.7% |
| Kristian Fulton | TEN | 356 | 38.9% | 336 | 94.4% |
| Michael Davis | LAC | 500 | 37.9% | 457 | 91.4% |
| Emmanuel Forbes | WAS | 303 | 37.1% | 281 | 92.7% |
| Eli Apple | MIA | 323 | 34.5% | 305 | 94.4% |
| J.C. Jackson | LAC/NE | 301 | 30.6% | 251 | 83.4% |
| Tyson Campbell | JAX | 346 | 27.3% | 311 | 89.9% |
| Darrell Baker | IND | 285 | 25.3% | 260 | 91.2% |
| James Bradberry | PHI | 638 | 21.4% | 520 | 81.5% |
| Mekhi Blackmon | MIN | 293 | 17.9% | 259 | 88.4% |
| Tyrique Stevenson | CHI | 506 | 17.7% | 455 | 89.9% |
| Adoree’ Jackson | NYG | 412 | 13.8% | 331 | 80.3% |
| Donte Jackson | CAR | 430 | 12.7% | 401 | 93.3% |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | TEN | 467 | 12.1% | 417 | 89.3% |
The Chicago Bears defensive rebuild is in good hands with Jaylon Johnson in the secondary. He has settled into one of the best perimeter roles in the league, tacking on a career-high four interceptions to a league-best -53.3% DVOA out wide. Damarri Mathis from Denver, on the other hand, is one of the central reasons why the Broncos were absolutely sunk in coverage out wide.
If these team lists tell you anything, it should let you know just how incredible both the Ravens and Browns secondaries were in 2023. The Ravens and Browns each boast two players in the top 15 of out wide DVOA and an additional defensive back in slot coverage. They are two of three teams with multiple defensive backs with a negative coverage DVOA (the other being Buffalo, with Las Vegas not included because of the in-season acquisition of Jack Jones from New England).
| Versatile DBs (Players with at least 100 snaps in the slot and out wide) | |||||||
| Player | Team | DVOA | Cov Snp | Slot | Slot Snp | Wide | Wide Snp |
| Greg Newsome | CLE | -24.0% | 429 | -35.7% | 246 | 1.9% | 154 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | SF | -12.4% | 609 | -8.1% | 238 | -15.6% | 340 |
| Patrick Peterson | PIT | -10.5% | 463 | -15.0% | 138 | -18.6% | 295 |
| Devon Witherspoon | SEA | -8.9% | 484 | -9.7% | 281 | -5.6% | 189 |
| Byron Murphy | MIN | -7.2% | 510 | -12.0% | 176 | -3.9% | 319 |
| Cobie Durant | LAR | -6.5% | 396 | -6.1% | 225 | -2.9% | 150 |
| Trent McDuffie | KC | -0.6% | 514 | -1.1% | 331 | 8.2% | 135 |
| Roger McCreary | TEN | 2.3% | 503 | -5.3% | 351 | 25.0% | 105 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | WAS | 26.6% | 569 | 3.3% | 212 | 48.0% | 317 |
| Kader Kohou | MIA | 29.9% | 543 | 9.5% | 372 | 80.0% | 146 |
Just 10 players have at least 100 snaps in both lineup positions, and only five of those have negative DVOAs at each position. Of those five, only one has a double-digit negative DVOA in both positions. Of course, it’s none other than … 34-year-old Patrick Peterson? Yes, the 13-year NFL veteran is continuing what has until lately been a career renaissance at corner, building off a career 2022 season in Minnesota with a one-off season in Pittsburgh. Peterson led the team with 11 passes defensed and two interceptions, the kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s able to get plugged in anywhere. On the flip side, Benjamin St-Juste and Kader Kohou are the only two players to finish with a positive DVOA on both sides of the ball. Kohou served as a primary slot corner in his rookie UDFA season, and his 146 snaps out wide buried him. St-Juste, on the other hand, is a primary perimeter corner. The big-bodied corner holds his own on contested catches, but he can get blown by on the outside.
