Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With training camp in full swing, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to monitor throughout the offseason.
The splits tool is a great way to dissect how certain environments and situations impact different players or teams based on spreads, locations, coaches, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.
The New-Look Raiders
After a 3-5 start to the 2023 season, the Raiders cleaned house, letting go of Josh McDaniels and promoting former linebackers coach Antonio Pierce. The team immediately rallied behind Pierce on both sides of the ball, picking up a 24-point victory against the Giants in their first game without McDaniels, allowing a season-low six points on defense while scoring 30 on offense. With Pierce at the helm, Las Vegas won five of their last nine games, finishing just above .500 during that stretch (5-4), posting notable wins against teams like the eventual Super Bowl champions Chiefs and going 3-1 against the AFC West to close out the year. Entering the offseason, the Raiders hired former Chargers GM Tom Telesco to run the front office, who immediately brought back Pierce on a full-time deal.
After Pierce took over in Week 9, fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell started each of the last nine games, playing well enough for the team to cut ties with Jimmy Garoppolo, who they had just signed last offseason. Although they didn’t address the quarterback position in the draft in April, they signed Gardner Minshew in free agency to compete with AOC for the starting gig. Minshew nearly led Indianapolis to a playoff berth last year after taking over for Anthony Richardson. Based on early reports out of OTAs and through training camp, the second-year signal-caller has a slight leg up on the journeymen veteran, currently listed as a -130 favorite to start Week 1 per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even if O’Connell starts, we could see both quarterbacks get meaningful playing time. They were nearly identical according to the FTN Fantasy StatsHub.
Below, I’ll be using the splits tool to look back at how the offense fared through 10 games with AOC as the starter.
Davante Adams, WR
Davante Adams had an up-and-down season in his second year in Las Vegas, falling outside the top 12 fantasy wide receivers for just the third time in his career when playing 16-plus games. Volume wasn’t an issue for Adams, who saw 175 passes come his way, trailing only CeeDee Lamb (181), leading the NFL in both target share (33.08%) and WOPR (81.15%). He was also 10th in receptions (103) and 15th in receiving yards (1,114), joining a short list of only six players to top 1,000 yards through the air in four consecutive seasons. 1,114 receiving yards through 16 games is nothing to scoff at but could have been significantly higher with better play under center. Adams was third among all players in unrealized air yards (1,091), seeing a league-high 54 targets that were deemed uncatchable, per PFF, most in the league. Since being traded to Vegas, Adams has seen 175-plus targets in back-to-back seasons despite playing with five different quarterbacks. Although the quality under center was a lot more stable in Green Bay, Adams never saw more than 169 targets in his eight-year tenure with the Packers. With O’Connell as the starter, Adams’s receiving production increased across the board, seeing 11 targets per game, averaging 6.4 receptions, 68.5 receiving yards and half a touchdown during that span.
Once Pierce stepped in as the interim head coach, the team prioritized getting Adams more involved, and his target share spiked up to 35% in the last nine games of the season versus 30% in Weeks 1-8. Better playcalling with stability under center bodes well for the 2024 outlook for Adams, who has been an advocate for O’Connell throughout the offseason.
With that said, there is some risk of a dropoff for Adams, who will turn 32 in December and is entering his 11th NFL season. However, a lot of the concerns can be mitigated by volume alone, especially for a target earner like Adams, who has finished top two in that category in three consecutive seasons with two different teams.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Jakobi Meyers fared well in his first year with the Raiders, topping 800 receiving yards for a third consecutive season and catching a career-high eight touchdowns, tied with Adams for first on the team. No other duo was responsible for a greater percentage of their teams’ targets than Meyers and Adams, who combined for a 53.5% target share last season. Although Meyers was the clear No. 2 in the passing offense, he still finished as a top-24 wide receiver, scoring 13.7 full-PPR points and 11.4 half-PPR points per game. However, unlike Adams, Meyers’ production dropped off with O’Connell as the starter, seeing 3.53 fewer targets per game, averaging 5.3 receptions, 43.6 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns during that span.
Following Josh McDaniels’ departure, Meyers saw a lot fewer opportunities, logging a 20% target share in the last nine games of the season vs. 25% in Weeks 1-8. It’s hard to envision Meyers returning WR2 value again this upcoming season, especially with the addition of 13th overall pick Brock Bowers in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’ll face much stiffer competition for targets barring an Adams trade, the murmurs of which has cooled off since the start of training camp but may still be within the realm of possibilities, potentially even midseason.
Michael Mayer, TE
Raiders’ 2023 second-round tight end Michael Mayer wasn’t much of a factor as a rookie, totaling just 27 catches for 304 yards and two touchdowns on the season and missing the final three games with a toe injury. He played behind Austin Hooper to start the season, outsnapped by the veteran 140-116 in the first four games. Starting in Week 5, Mayer usurped Hooper as the primary tight end, posting a 64%-plus snap share in each of his last 10 games. On the surface, Mayer’s production looks better with O’Connell as the starter, but the results are skewed by the increase in playing time.
Since making the transition from McDaniels to Pierce as head coach, Mayer ran a route on 66% of O’Connell’s dropbacks over his last five games compared to a 47% route participation in Weeks 1-8. Regardless of who is under center for Las Vegas next season, the biggest concern for Mayer is what his role and target share will be in the offense, playing alongside the newly acquired first-round tight end Brock Bowers. Early reports out of training camp suggest that the team has been running a lot of 12 personnel, with Mayer lining up as a traditional “Y” tight end and Bowers operating as more of a slot wide receiver, lined up as the “F” tight end. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Raiders shift toward two tight ends as their base set after letting Hunter Renfrow walk earlier in the offseason.
