Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our fantasy football rankers are some of the best in the business, but that doesn’t mean they always agree. Twice a week, our rankers will highlight some names they are furthest from the staff consensus fantasy rankings on and explain why you should either be targeting those players or steering clear in your 2024 drafts.
3 You’re Too High On for 2024
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
FTN Ranking: WR37
My Ranking: WR41
Jayden Reed is the most overvalued player in fantasy football right now. He is comfortably being drafted as Green Bay’s WR1, despite the fact that there is zero guarantee that’ll be his role in 2024. Sure, there were some good signs from Reed’s rookie year. And he’s a good player.
But he’s just being drafted much too high.
While Green Bay clearly made an effort to get the ball into Reed’s hands, it also didn’t result in a huge target share. Reed finished with a target share of 17%, which was right next to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. But we also saw Dontayvion Wicks come along down the stretch, and when you add the pair of tight ends, there are suddenly a lot of very viable pass-catchers in this offense. And if Watson can stay healthy, it is possible we see Reed max out at 5-6 targets per game. In nine games alongside Watson last year, Reed averaged just 4.9 targets, 3.4 receptions and 40.6 receiving yards per game. And although he was still productive, Reed wasn’t exactly a full-time player in year one. Over the course of the season, he ran a route on just 61% of Green Bay’s dropbacks. And during Watson’s healthy weeks (4-13, Reed was operating as the WR3 behind Watson and Doubs:
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