100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (New Orleans Saints)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The New Orleans Saints.

Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season, and the New Orleans Saints haven’t made the postseason in the three seasons since. That sounds extremely failure-y. But just for another way to look at it, here is the three-year record for the eight teams with no postseason appearances in that time:

Team	W	L	T	W%
New Orleans Saints	25	26	0	0.490
Indianapolis Colts	22	28	1	0.441
Atlanta Falcons	21	30	0	0.412
Denver Broncos	20	31	0	0.392
Washington Commanders	19	31	1	0.382
New York Jets	18	33	0	0.353
Chicago Bears	16	35	0	0.314
Carolina Panthers	14	37	0	0.275

The Saints have no postseason appearances since Brees’ retirement, but they’re also basically a .500 team in that time, with two 9-8 records sandwiched around a 7-10 2022. They and the Colts are the only teams in the league with even one over-.500 season in the last three but no playoff appearances, let alone two such seasons.

This is clearly a product of the Saints’ financial strategies, with them mortgaging the future to avoid tearing it down and starting over. And it’s the kind of approach that makes a team spend most of the second half of the season bouncing around the back half of the TV “in the playoff hunt” graphics without ever being taken seriously as a contender. This is not a support of tanking, because that carries its own very frustrating fallout, but it is a statement that the Saints have maybe been a better team than you thought since Brees’ retirement while also saying they’ve maybe been further away from a title than they think.

The Questions

71. What Is Chris Olave’s Upside?
72. Can Rashid Shaheed Truly Break Out?
73. Do We Still Need to Remember Kendre Miller’s Name?

100 Questions for 2024: New Orleans Saints

What Is Chris Olave’s Upside?

GREEN BAY, WI - AUGUST 19: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a touchdown pass during an NFL preseason game between the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints on August 19, 2022, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire) — GREEN BAY, WI – AUGUST 19: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a touchdown pass during an NFL preseason game between the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints on August 19, 2022, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Chris Olave has been about as good as reasonably could have been expected through two years, with over 1,000 yards and at least 119 targets each year.

He’s not even a top-20 fantasy receiver in that time.

Olave has only 9 touchdowns the last two years. The only top-20 receivers with fewer are Michael Pittman Jr. (8) and Chris Godwin (5). Pittman has 49 more receptions than Olave, Godwin 28. Inside the top 30, you can only add Garrett Wilson (7) to that list. Olave has five top-10 weekly PPR finishes in his two years, or as many as A.J. Brown had just between Week 4 and Week 9 last year.

There aren’t many receivers who have a higher floor than Olave. Assuming health (he’s missed games in two years), Olave is very likely to finish as a top-25 PPR receiver (he’s been the WR25 and WR16 in his two seasons). But among those likely to finish as a top-25 receiver, there aren’t many less likely to finish as a top-10 one, owing both to his own limitations (weekly ceiling) and those of his quarterback/overall offense. And without any reasonable expectation he’ll give you weekly pops or season-long numbers, drafting Olave at cost (he’s the WR11 in current ADP) is one of those picks that won’t devastate you but is very likely to feel underwhelming for the next six months. Aim higher.

Can Rashid Shaheed Truly Break Out?

After some truly electric moments despite minimal usage as a rookie in 2022, Rashid Shaheed became closer to a full-time receiver in 2023 alongside Olave and Michael Thomas. He underwhelmed, finishing with 756 scrimmage yards and 5 touchdowns en route to a WR44 finish, with three top-12 weeks and only one better than 12^th.

Now, Thomas is gone, and there are even fewer sure things in this receiving offense behind Olave. It’s Shaheed, and then in some order it’s A.T. Perry, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson. Of course, Alvin Kamara, the tight ends and the perpetual Taysom Hill will command targets, but no matter what, there will be targets to receivers in 2024 — per the FTN Fantasy Football Game Plan, the Falcons (and Arthur Smith, and Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts) were the only team to target wide receivers less than 50% of the time last year, with the Saints at 57%. If we assume 57% is a good rough estimation of the distribution in 2024 (the roster hasn’t changed much), we need to look at how many passes Derek Carr might attempt.

Per our FTN Fantasy projections, Carr is slated for 520.3 pass attempts. At 57%, that means almost exactly 300 targets for wide receivers. Even if Olave accounts for 150 of that (he’s had 119 and 138, but let’s build in a bump), there are about 150 more. But 150 targets for a whole secondary part of a receiver room, even a shallow one like New Orleans’, requires one person to dominate that work to reach fantasy prowess. Shaheed would need something like 50-60% of those targets, or a 20%-plus overall Saints target share, to be a fantasy factor. That’s hard to imagine. Perry, Wilson or fifth-round rookie Means will get too much.

If you’re playing best ball, Shaheed’s individual-play upside (he has 10 career games with a play of at least 40 scrimmage yards) makes him an intriguing option. If your league includes return yards (shout out my Scott Fish Bowl 14 roster), go nuts. But in a normal, season-long league without return yards, counting on Shaheed is not likely to work out.

Do We Still Need to Remember Kendre Miller’s Name?

FOXBOROUGH, MA - OCTOBER 08: New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (25) catches a swing pass during a game between the New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints on October 8, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire) — FOXBOROUGH, MA – OCTOBER 08: New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (25) catches a swing pass during a game between the New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints on October 8, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Kendre Miller was a popular sleeper pick last year, with Alvin Kamara suspended and Jamaal Williams a plodder. Instead, Miller dealt with injuries, played only eight games and finished with 273 scrimmage yards, 1 touchdown and a No. 70 PPR finish among running backs. Heading into 2024, Kamara is still around and not suspended, and Williams is still there as well. Both are a year older, but there’s no real sign the Saints are going to be moving on any time soon.

So where does that leave Miller? Well, he’s already been banged up in camp, and head coach Dennis Allen has been critical of Miller’s injury issues (then again, Allen is critical of a lot). Kamara is entrenched as the No. 1 and likely to get bell cow-level work, though more as a receiver than as a rusher. Williams will get some run as well. And of course the Saints are more addicted to Taysom Hill than I am to Reese’s Fast Breaks. Hill has set new career highs in touches and scrimmage yards each of the last two years at ages 32 and 33. He’s likely to get 70-100 carries again this year with a dose of targets as well. Add it up, and Miller’s extremely modest ADP (RB52) is, even with that “extremely modest,” an overpay. He can’t stay on the field, lacks the support of his coach and doesn’t have a path to significant touches. Maybe he surprises, but there’s no strategic reason to invest in Kendre Miller for 2024.