Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Buffalo Bills.
In 2021, the Bills were coming off a 13-3 season. They started 0-1 and were 3-1, 4-2 and 7-6 before ending the season on a winning streak to get to 11-6 and win the AFC East. They gave up 17 points in the Wild Card Round before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round in a close game (42-36 in overtime).
In 2023, the Bills were coming off a 13-3 season. They started 0-1 and were 3-1, 4-2 and 7-6 before ending the season on a winning streak to get to 11-6 and win the AFC East. They gave up 17 points in the Wild Card Round before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round in a close game (27-24).
Do I think that means anything? Nah, beyond “Man, the Bills have been good.” I just think the parallels are kind of crazy. And if the Bills go 13-3 this year (it’s a 17-game schedule, but they pulled off that trick before) … well, we know how 2025 will go.
The Questions
14. Who Is the WR1 Here, and Should We Care?
15. So, Dalton Kincaid … How High’s His Upside?
16. Is Ray Davis Ready for the Spotlight?
100 Questions for 2024: Buffalo Bills
Who Is the WR1 Here, and Should We Care?
The Bills let Gabe Davis leave in free agency this offseason, and they traded away Stefon Diggs. They addressed that in free agency and the draft, adding (deep breath) Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and KJ Hamler. With Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield also moving on this offseason, the only wide receiver left on the roster who caught even one pass for Buffalo last year is Khalil Shakir, whose 39 catchers and 611 yards last year were a big jump over his 10 and 161 as a rookie in 2022.
Here’s the thing, though: Yes, they added a lot of potential receivers. What they didn’t do was prioritize that task. Samuel and Hollins weren’t signed until several days into free agency. Claypool and Valdes-Scantling, even later. Yes, they used their first pick in the draft on Coleman, but not before trading down from two earlier spots (that the beneficiary teams used on other receivers) before doing so. To me, that reads as a team filling the ranks, not a team gunning before a new lead dog. And the only reason a team wouldn’t be hunting for a new lead dog is if that team thinks it already has a lead dog.
Yes, that means Khalil Shakir. Shakir, despite the presences of Diggs and Samuel, put up 2.0 yards per route run last year (per the FTN Fantasy StatsHub) and scored in each of the team’s playoff games. He’s got the familiarity with Josh Allen. And despite all that, he’s cheaper than Coleman (WR46 by current ADP) and Samuel (WR50) at WR57. Give me Shakir as the Bills’ WR1 in 2024 (with Samuel just behind), and give me him as a fairly reliable flex play.
So, Dalton Kincaid … How High’s His Upside?
The argument against a lot of what I said above about Shakir is that yes, he’s the only wide receiver on the roster to catch a pass from Allen last year, but that’s because 91 targets and 73 receptions of Allen’s work went to the team’s first-round draft pick last year at tight end in Dalton Kincaid. Despite being a rookie and sharing time for much of the season with veteran Dawson Knox, Kincaid managed a TE11 finish behind the 10th-most yards and the fifth-most targets for a rookie TE ever (or since 1992 in the case of targets).
So can Kincaid take the next step and go from “solid back-end TE1” to “no-doubt starter with elite upside”? The drafting community appears to think so, with Kincaid sitting at TE5 by current ADP. And if you can tell me Dawson Knox will disappear between now and the season, I have no problem with that. But Knox exists. At this point in his career, Knox isn’t much of a receiver, but what he is is a very good blocker, an area that (as a rookie at least) Kincaid struggled last year (45th of 46 qualified tight ends in PFF blocking grade). The Bills value Knox’ blocking. That’s why more than half of Kincaid’s fantasy scoring (56.3%) came during the six weeks Knox missed last year, when Kincaid averaged 14.1 PPR points per game, compared to 6.6 when Knox was around. Kincaid is an excellent receiver. But there’s more to a tight end’s job than that, and unless/until he shows he can improve at the rest of the job, he’s overrated in fantasy.
Is Ray Davis Ready for the Spotlight?
OK, that’s not the real question, I’m just the father of a boy who literally told me I should have named him “Jordan Ray Davis Kelley” last year because he fell in love with the guy.
Anyway, the real question is whether James Cook has “solid RB1” upside, or if his RB12 finish last year is more like his long-term value. And the answer to that is … I think there’s room for growth! Cook averaged 12.0 carries, 61.5 rushing yards and 11.8 PPR points per game last year through Week 10. The rest of the way, those averaged climbed to 16.7 carries, 72.4 yards and 16.4 PPR points after that. Cook topped 16 PPR six times last year, and four of those came in the smaller end-of-season sample. What happened after Week 10? Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady took over, and the Bills went far more run-heavy the rest of the way. The love of my children aside, Ray Davis is not (yet?) much of a threat to unseat Cook, nor are Ty Johnson or Frank Gore Jr. Maybe he doesn’t carry Christian McCaffrey/Breece Hall upside, but James Cook can easily climb to the middle of the RB1 ranks this year, RB5 or RB6 firmly in his range of outcomes.
