100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Los Angeles Chargers)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Los Angeles Chargers.

The Packers have had Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love as their primary quarterbacks for more than 30 years now. They’ve turned that into 15 division titles and two Super Bowl wins. It’s an incredible run that seems like it ought to be impossible to pull off.

The thing is, that seems so ridiculous that it overshadows something nearly as ridiculous. Because the Chargers have played 355 games in the last 22 years, and all but 11 of those games have been started by Drew Brees, Philip Rivers or Justin Herbert. If the Packers didn’t exist, we’d be marveling at the Chargers going from a definite Hall of Famer to a borderline (at least) Hall of Famer to a potential Hall of Famer as the stuff of legends.

Except … while the Packers have won division titles in half of the seasons of their run and claimed two Super Bowls, the Chargers have only won five division titles in their 22 years of elite quarterbacking, never even reaching a Super Bowl and only getting to the Conference Championship Round one time, back in the 2007 season. The Packers have had a storybook run of quarterbacking, and they’ve been a model NFL franchise because of it. The Chargers have had a storybook run of quarterbacking, and they’ve been … the Chargers.

The Questions

56. The Chargers Promise to Run a Lot, And…?
57. Is There Even a Receiver to Care About Here?
58. Can Justin Herbert Thrive with This Receiver Room and This Coaching Staff?

100 Questions for 2024: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers Promise to Run a Lot, And…?

The Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh, who brought in Greg Roman. They retained their expensive players but let their top two wide receivers, their top tight end and their running back whose specialty was catching passes leave. They spent their first-round pick (fifth overall) on an offensive lineman, and their big offseason signings were two running backs and a tight end who was the No. 2 tight end in PFF run-blocking grades last year.

I feel like their strategy is pretty clear, y’all.

CINCINNATI, OH - JANUARY 03: Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) carries the ball during the game against the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals on January 3, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – JANUARY 03: Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) carries the ball during the game against the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals on January 3, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

The only holdovers in this backfield are Jaret Patterson (who came and went last year but never made the active roster), Elijah Dotson (4 carries for 6 yards!) and Isaiah Spiller (2.6 yards per carry on 37 carries, still looking for his first career touchdown). So if you’ll forgive the dismissiveness, I’ll scratch them off. That leave sex-Ravens Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins and sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal.

When Chris Meaney and I wrote the Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions on the Chargers, he identified Edwards as his Chargers sleeper, while my bold prediction was that Vidal would lead the backfield in PPR scoring. Chris’ argument for Edwards was that Harbaugh and Roman pounced on Edwards in free agency early, while mine on Vidal was that Edwards has never been explosive and Dobbins has been very injured.

Of course, that was two and a half months ago.

Since then, Vidal has been running behind Jaret Patterson in camp, while Dobbins has looked ready to go. Considering there’s never been a question about who is better when healthy between Dobbins and Edwards, if Dobbins is healthy, it seems like he’s the clear choice here. The problem is counting on Dobbins to be healthy. And this has been a lot of words to say it’s extremely hard to believe in a guy just back from a torn Achilles, but also the fact that he’s there makes it hard to believe in the other guys. And that means maybe I take a flyer on Dobbins at his RB42 ADP, but ultimately I’m not going to go out of my way to select any Chargers back in 2024.

Is There Even a Receiver to Care About Here?

The Chargers are going to run so much! Remember what I just said? They are pushing very hard to be maybe the run-heaviest offense in football.

So no receiver will be relevant, right? Well, not exactly. In the last decade, only one team (the 2022 Bears) has finished with fewer than 400 pass attempts. Just seven more were under 450. Jim Harbaugh can call runs at a ludicrous level, inspire Twitter jokes and Benjamin Solak writeups, and even with that Justin Herbert will still be throwing 450-500 passes. Heck, our FTN Fantasy projections have him throwing it 521.9 times.

Either the Chargers are going to have a receiver do enough work to be a fantasy factor, or the work is going to be spread out so much that no one can rise above the rest. Either way, there will be enough pass attempts for some receiver production. So is it rookie second-rounder Ladd McConkey, veteran holdover Joshua Palmer, last year’s first-round bust Quentin Johnston, or no one?

Let’s check back in on our fantasy projections. There, you’ll find Palmer and Johnston each projected for about the same number of targets (85.2 for Palmer, 81.7 for Johnston), with McConkey rising above, albeit to only 103.7. And given that we know what Palmer is at this point in his career and have seen absolutely nothing from Johnston to make us believe (yet?), McConkey also being the only one who can realistically be a breakout makes him the choice here. Maybe we shouldn’t be excited, but if you’re targeting a Chargers pass-catcher, make it Ladd McConkey.

Can Justin Herbert Thrive with This Receiver Room and This Coaching Staff?

INGLEWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 1: Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) rolls out during the NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angles Chargers on October 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire) — INGLEWOOD, CA – OCTOBER 1: Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) rolls out during the NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angles Chargers on October 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Our Michael Dolan ranked every pass-catching unit around the league earlier this offseason, and the Chargers came in … 32^nd. And that wasn’t even a factor of game plan or strategy, it was just a talent grading. And then of course the coaching staff appears hellbent on making this a running offense. So Herbert, one of the four of five quarterbacks you would choose to start a team from scratch, might be muted for fantasy. His current ADP is QB17, which would feel like a bad joke for anyone who spent the offseason in a coma and didn’t know about the Chargers’ machinations.

[Whispers] It’s still kind of a joke.*

Maybe that’s harsh! But Herbert remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the game. Maybe QB17 is a fine ADP for a generic decent starting quarterback in his situation, but Herbert warrants more respect. Our Jeff Ratcliffe has him at QB13 in his FTN Fantasy rankings, and that feels much closer. I’d be comfortable taking Herbert as a very back-end starter in a 12-team league. Not excited, but comfortable.

*Of course, this all assumes Herbert’s plantar fascia injury isn’t significant, and we don’t know that. If you’re drafting today, then the QB17 (or so) ADP Herbert is currently carrying might not only be right, it might be an overpay. If you draft closer to the season (and you should!), you can reevaluate then. And if the worst happens and Herbert is hobbled all year or actually misses significant time … you can put a big red X over the entire Chargers’ depth chart in your draft prep.