100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Houston Texans)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Houston Texans.

In the 2023 season, the Cardinals, Panthers, Bears and Texans all started 0-2 (or worse). Because the Cardinals owned the Texans’ first-round pick (because of the Will Anderson trade) and the Bears owned the Panthers’ (Bryce Young trade), handicappers were pointing out the hilarious potential outcome that the Cardinals and Bears would make the draft’s first four picks in some order.

Of course, things changed from there, because the funniest possible outcome never works out for us. The Panthers still “earned” the first overall pick, but the Cardinals fell to fourth and the Bears to ninth. The Bears having two top-10 picks is interesting, but not nearly funny enough when “two teams, four picks” was on the table.

But the Texans were the ones who ran and hid. After starting 0-2 and 2-3, the Texans famously turned it on, going 8-4 the rest of the way and winning a playoff game before falling to the Ravens in the Divisional Round. So the team that was laughed at for maybe giving away a top-four pick after what was theoretically a failed trade ended up sending away the 27^th pick instead, and the trade turned out to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year, selected one player after the Texans took the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

I guess my points here are twofold:

What a surprising season from the Texans.
I wish funnier things would actually happen.

The Questions

41. What Is C.J. Stroud’s Ultimate Upside?
42. What Does the Stefon Diggs Addition Mean?
43. Does Joe Mixon Still Have It?

100 Questions for 2024: Houston Texans

What Is C.J. Stroud’s Ultimate Upside?

CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 29: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans runs with the ball during a football game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Oct 29, 2023. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire) — CHARLOTTE, NC – OCTOBER 29: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans runs with the ball during a football game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Oct 29, 2023. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)

In our Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions on the Texans, I compared Stroud’s hype to that of another rookie quarterback several years ago who played all but two games and surprised everyone for fantasy and whose team added a superstar receiver in the offseason, leading to his second-year ADP climbing all the way to QB4. Stroud played all but two games as a rookie and surprised everyone for fantasy before the Texans added Stefon Diggs this offseason, and now his ADP is QB5. Reasonable starting point for a comparison, right?

The comp is to Baker Mayfield.

No, I’m not saying Stroud’s career is going to follow Mayfield’s path. But it does illustrate how we as a drafting community can get caught up in the hype of a rookie who blows away our expectations, and also how the ceiling of a quarterback who doesn’t run is lower than you might otherwise believe. Stroud did offer 3 rushing touchdowns last year, but that was 3 more than he had in 25 starts at Ohio State in 2021-2022. He’s not slow, but he’s decidedly not going to be any kind of fantasy difference-maker on the ground. And without that, drafting him as QB5 means you are betting on him climbing from 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns to … 5,000 and 35? That would add 80-some fantasy points to Stroud’s total last year … and still be below Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts last year. We just drew up an absolute best-case scenario for Stroud in 2024 (I didn’t even take away his rushing touchdowns!) and he’d be QB3.

In other words, I can’t really formulate an argument where taking Stroud at QB5 makes sense. He appears to be a great quarterback, and he’s got excellent weaponry. But either taking him at QB5 is too high, or the gap between the top four quarterbacks and the rest is so great that you should wait past Stroud and take others in the lower tier. Either way, as good as he is, he’s not going to be a fantasy boon in 2024.

What Does the Stefon Diggs Addition Mean?

The argument against what I just said about Stroud is that, with the Stefon Diggs acquisition, the Texans signaled their efforts to force Stroud to get to that elite potential statline by hook or by crook. After all, Diggs (six straight 1,000-yard seasons) being added to Nico Collins (WR2 last year in yards per route run at 3.3, per the FTN Fantasy StatsHub) and Tank Dell (No. 3 rookie receiver in PFF grade at 83.3) makes for potentially one of the league’s best receiver rooms. Add in TE Dalton Schultz (PPR TE10 last year), and this unit came in fifth in our pass-catcher unit rankings.

The issue? This requires us to plan as though Stefon Diggs is still Stefon Diggs. Is he? The argument in favor is the fact that Diggs still had 1,256 yards last year, including 100-plus in five of the season’s first six games, and finished as the WR9. The cons have been well covered, but… he didn’t reach 100 yards again the rest of the season after Week 6 (despite never missing a game), counting the postseason. His yards per route run dropped off by more than half a yard last year. Counting the postseason, he had 205 fewer yards than Nico Collins despite 49 more targets and 26 more receptions. He only scored one more touchdown than Tank Dell (8-7) despite playing 19 games to Dell’s 11.

There is some reason to credit the Bills’ midseason offensive coordinator switch for Diggs’ slide in the second half, but at the least, if Diggs were still Diggs, you’d have expected that to reverse in the playoffs, when the team needed to rely on its studs. Instead, of only had 10 receptions and 73 yards across two games combined.

If those last two paragraphs aren’t clear enough, I’ll spell it out: Diggs is WR18 in ADP right now. I want no part of him there. There’s precious little chance Diggs, Collins and Dell all three can come through on ADP in 2024 (especially with Schultz and the backfield needing some looks as well), and drafters more or less need to take a stand. Give me Collins and Dell, who both have youth and more recent efficiency on their side. Diggs is one of the biggest busts of 2024.

Does Joe Mixon Still Have It?

Joe Mixon is entering his eighth season. He’s had at least 119 carries every year, at least 178 every year but one. He is still chasing his second season of more than 4.1 yards per carry. Take out his 2018 season (4.9 YPC), and Mixon is averaging 3.93 yards across 1,334 carries in his career. Efficiency has never been his thing, it’s been having the job to himself and getting some decent touchdown totals.

CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 04: Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) reacts during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on October 4, 2020, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – OCTOBER 04: Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) reacts during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on October 4, 2020, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

There’s good news! Because those qualifications seem to hold in 2024 even as Mixon moves from Cincinnati to Houston. The Texans don’t have any more reliable backups to Mixon than the Bengals did, and with what should be an elite offense, there should be plenty of scoring chances for Mixon in 2024. So if he can even be as good as he was in Cincinnati, that might be enough. I’m just skeptical that’ll happen. He was 52^nd of 63 qualified backs last year in yards after contact per attempt. He’s 28 now. He was a cut candidate at least the last couple years in Cincinnati. I think there’s a very real chance Mixon opens the season as the clear No. 1 in Houston, only to lose his job by October.

So who would be the beneficiary? I see two options:

Someone not on the roster. Maybe someone available after cutdown day, maybe someone they pick up in the first few weeks. It almost certainly wouldn’t be an exciting name, but it doesn’t have to be; workloads create fantasy points.
Jawhar Jordan. The Texans’ sixth-rounder from back in April is the only back currently on the roster who I think could take over a big role if Mixon fades. Dameon Pierce crashed and burned hard in his attempt last year; Dare Ogunbowale isn’t a ball carrier; J.J. Taylor, British Brooks, Troy Hairston and Andrew Beck are fullbacks and/or roster fillers. Jordan only has one year of excellent college production on his resume (hadn’t topped 815 yards or 4 touchdowns before 1,128 and 13 last year), but he did his work in an outside zone scheme at Louisville that matches what the Texans have. This is extremely far from a sure thing, but if I’m dumpster diving late in a deep draft, I’d toss a flyer at the Houston rookie.