100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Green Bay Packers)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Green Bay Packers.

Hall of Fame first baseman Jimmie Foxx debuted in 1925. He played until 1945. Warren Spahn debuted in 1942, then returned in 1946 after World War II, playing until 1965. The next year was 1966, when Nolan Ryan debuted, and he played until 1993. That cleared the way for Alex Rodriguez’ 1994 debut through to 2016. So we look to the 2017 rookies. We want one to last a long time in the league. Someone like Rafael Devers, Ozzie Albies, Cody Bellinger. If we can find one who can play 15-20 years — like Foxx, like Spahn, like Ryan, like Rodriguez — we could trace a line of something like 110, 120 years of Major League Baseball through just five players. That’s hilarious and awesome.

You’re smart and can probably tell how I’m going to relate this to the Green Bay Packers. But just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it any less remarkable that the Packers are now set to make it up to something like 40 years with only three quarterbacks — Brett Favre (1992 to 2007), Aaron Rodgers (2005 to 2022) and Jordan Love (2021 to question mark, but now armed with a fancy new four-year extension and the potential for longer). The last time the Packers went into a year relying on someone other than those three at quarterback, the NFL MVP was Thurman Thomas, the Cardinals were the “Phoenix Cardinals” and there were only 28 NFL teams. The Browns have started 44 different quarterbacks in that time.

Again, you know this. But just knowing something doesn’t always mean seeing it in print, and that needs to be in print. Because it’s freaking amazing.

The Questions

38. Do We Just Put these Receivers into a Yahtzee Shaker?
39. So How Do We Sort the Tight Ends?
40. Does Josh Jacobs Still Have Elite Ceiling?

100 Questions for 2024: Green Bay Packers

Do We Just Put these Receivers into a Yahtzee Shaker?

Counting the playoffs, guys who led Packers receivers in a game in 2024 in:

• PPR points — Jayden Reed 9 times, Romeo Doubs 6, Christian Watson 3, Dontayvion Wicks 1
• Targets (counting ties) — Romeo Doubs 8, Jayden Reed 6, Christian Watson 4, Bo Melton 3, Dontayvion Wicks 2
• Receiving yards — Romeo Doubs 8, Jayden Reed 4, Dontayvion Wicks 4, Christian Watson 2, Bo Melton 1
• Offensive snaps (counting ties) — Romeo Doubs 15, Christian Watson 4, Bo Melton 1

Most anyone looking at those numbers would conclude that Doubs, maybe Reed is the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense. But it ignores some extenuating circumstances. Jayden Reed was a rookie. Christian Watson missed eight games. It was a new offense with a new quarterback and a lot of new faces, and many of Doubs’ big games came early in the season, so maybe things settled into a less-Doubs-y place later on.

If Watson can stay healthy, there’s an argument for him to be the No. 1. If Reed can perform like he did down the stretch, maybe it’s him. Doubs is the steady option. So the answer to the question is … yep! Yahtzee shaker! Our FTN Fantasy projections have Reed, Watson and Doubs all within 6 targets, 11 receptions and 90 yards of one another (with Wicks not that far off). Anyone pretending they can confidently say which will finish best over the course of 17 games is lying. Oddsmakers would make it like 35%-34%-31%, and I don’t even know which is which. And given there is an 18-spot gap in WR ADP between Reed (WR35) and Doubs (WR53, with Watson in the middle at WR42), the savvy play is just opt for the latest of the three. That’s Doubs.

So How Do We Sort the Tight Ends?

This is sort of a repeat of the last question, just with a smaller field of options. But the Packers rolled into 2023 with a duo of rookies at tight end in second-rounder Luke Musgrave and third-rounder Tucker Kraft. Musgrave opened 2023 with the heavy advantage in playing time, but then when he got hurt and missed six games in the middle of the season, Kraft took over.

Ultimately though, I don’t care as much about when they played as I do about how they were used. Musgrave was actively bad as a pass-blocker (37^th among 40 qualified tight ends in PFF grade) but operated as a deeper threat (7.4-yard aDOT). Kraft was utilized in short target (5.3-yard aDOT) and was an above-average pass-blocker (16^th among TEs). Well, think about the Green Bay offense. As mentioned above, it has a wealth of receivers. Meanwhile, the receiving out of the backfield now that Aaron Jones is gone could be lacking. And while the offensive line should still be good (still No. 8 in our offensive line rankings), it’s more of a question in 2024 than it’s been in a generation, and having Kraft’s blocking acumen on the field can only help. Translation: In current ADP, Musgrave is TE17 and Kraft is TE40, but give me Kraft to outscore Musgrave this year, just by virtue of filling a role in the offense no one else does.

(Very important caveat: Kraft opened camp on the PUP list with a torn pec. He’s since been activated but is being eased into work. It’s not expected to cost him much time if any, but if it does, this advice could change in a hurry.)

Does Josh Jacobs Still Have Elite Ceiling?

There are 13 running backs with at least 500 career carries who were active last year and have a career yards per carry of 4.2 or below. Four of those (Leonard Fournette, Jerick McKinnon, Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray) appear to be done or close. Five more (Jamaal Williams, Alexander Mattison, AJ Dillon, D’Onta Foreman, Antonio Gibson) are only backups, with Chuba Hubbard set to join them as soon as Jonathon Brooks is up to speed. The other four:

• Najee Harris — battling Jaylen Warren for work because of his inefficiency
• David Montgomery — elite goal-line option
• Joe Mixon — lost his job in Cincinnati to Zack Moss, but has the benefit of having basically no competition in Houston
• Josh Jacobs — considered one of the prizes of free agency, RB12 in ADP despite a third-round rookie behind him

And it’s not like Jacobs offers big-time receiving production to offset his inefficiency on the ground — he’s never scored a receiving touchdown despite 197 career receptions, with only one PFF receiving grade of even 60.0 (64.8 in 2022). Yes, Jacobs has his virtues, but as soon as we realized the Packers had a one-year out on Jacobs’ deal that was initially called a four-year, $48 million contract, we should have realized that he’s not likely to be his bell cow self, especially on a Packers team that steadfastly refused to use Aaron Jones as one. Josh Jacobs, RB12? No thank you very much.