100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Minnesota Vikings)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Minnesota Vikings.

Regression is a known thing, and when massive outliers happen, you can almost always count on them to reverse course.

It just usually doesn’t happen immediately.

In the 2022 season, the Vikings went 13-4 and got the 3 seed in the NFC playoffs. They played well enough, but with a point differential of -3, it was pretty clear that they also got lucky. It was made even clearer as soon as you looked at their record in one-score games, as the Vikings went an unfathomable 11-0 in games decided by 8 or fewer points. Everyone who fancies him or herself a ball knower said that the team overperformed and would slide.

Then the Vikings lost their lone playoff game by 7 and opened 2024 0-3 with losses by 3, 6 and 4.

By the end of the 2023 season, Minnesota’s one-score record had more or less normalized, putting up a .412 overall winning percentage with a .429 in one-score games. But the fact that the team went from 11-0 to losing its next four will always feel like the ultimate in “see, we told you so” for a certain class of football folk.

The Questions

65. Is Aaron Jones Again Going to Have to Cede Time to a Lesser No. 2?
66. Is It Worth It to Spend a Pick on T.J. Hockenson?
67. How Much Do We Care About the Quarterback Room?

100 Questions for 2024: Minnesota Vikings

Is Aaron Jones Again Going to Have to Cede Time to a Lesser No. 2?

DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 29: Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) runs down the sidelines for a long gain during the Detroit Lions versus Green Bay Packers game on Thursday December 29, 2019 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire) — DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 29: Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) runs down the sidelines for a long gain during the Detroit Lions versus Green Bay Packers game on Thursday December 29, 2019 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

There are only four running backs in NFL history with at least 1,000 career carries and a yards-per-carry average of 5.00 or better — Jamaal Charles (5.4), Nick Chubb (5.3), Jim Brown (5.2) and Aaron Jones (5.0). (Honorable mention to Barry Sanders, who put up a 4.99.) The problem is that Jones’ career high in carries is 236, and the only other two guys in the top 10 of the career YPA rankings with a career high that low (a) were fullbacks and/or (b) played 60 years ago. So Jones has been borderline historically efficient while being borderline historically timeshared — guys who are as efficient as Jones has been just don’t have to share backfields as much as he has been, especially considering his running mates in Green Bay were mostly Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon, hardly paragons of backfield efficiency themselves.

Now, Jones is in Minnesota, but he is also 29 (30 in December), and his new teammate Ty Chandler actually (barely) bested Jones by overall PFF grade last year, 76.3 to 76.0. If Jones getting out of Green Bay means he can be a bell cow or close to it, his current ADP (RB18) is going to seem like a bargain. If Jones’ increasing injury concerns (he missed six games last year) and Chandler’s presence mean Jones will continue to be the heavy side of a committee, then you’re overpaying for him (last year he was RB26 by PPR points per game, and even if you take out the games he left injured it only gets about to his current ADP).

For some guidance, I’m turning to the FTN Fantasy projections, where we have Jones projected for almost exactly 200 PPR points, with 184.5 rush attempts and 57.3 targets. By comparison, Chandler’s workload in the projections is 94.7 attempts and 22.0 targets, almost exactly in line with his 2023 (102 carries, 25 targets). Jones’ projection is for 225.5 total touches, a number that would have ranked 28^th last year. Maybe we’re under, but unless you think we’re under by something like 50 touches, then the only conclusion is that, as efficient as Jones has been for his career, his ADP for 2024 is simply too high.

Is It Worth It to Spend a Pick on T.J. Hockenson?

T.J. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL in Week 16 last year. Through that point (even including the Week 16 game when he left just after halftime), Hockenson was the fantasy TE1. Give him two more games at his 14.6 PPG rate, and he’d have gotten to 248.2 points on the year, almost 10 points clear of Sam LaPorta. That Hockenson could put up numbers like that despite playing with a mess of a QB situation for half the year says a lot, and there would be conversations about him as the No. 1 tight end in drafts this year if not for the injury.

Instead, Hockenson is the TE13 by current ADP, a reflection of concern about his status for 2024. The Vikings just this week said they expected him back … “at some point during the first half of the season.” That is damning with faint praise there, because usually around this time of year the hype is that guys are ahead of schedule and blowing everyone away. Hockenson’s tepid “hype” feels telling.

And then there’s one more thing that I feel is going underdiscussed: Justin Jefferson’s absence. T.J. Hockenson is a good tight end no matter who is around him, but per the FTN Fantasy splits tool, his difference in production in games Jefferson was or was not on the field was dramatic:

Hockenson scored twice in games Jefferson missed last year, and both came in Week 2 against the Eagles. He had double-digit target four times, and three came with Jefferson out. He’s a mid-range TE1 with Jefferson on the field (particularly if the QB situation works out), but it takes Jefferson being gone for Hockenson to reach his potential, and of course we have to proceed as though Jefferson is going to be there all season.

Add it all up, and I am perfectly ready to be proven wrong here, but I’m not touching Hockenson outside of the very end of drafts as depth, and even then only if I know I have an available IR slot.

How Much Do We Care About the Quarterback Room?

This section looked different about a day ago, before it came out that J.J. McCarthy has a torn meniscus and will have knee surgery, with his return date a big question mark. I’ll still hit the quick beats, but now we know that Sam Darnold is a virtual lock to at the very least open the season as the starter, but beyond that is a mystery.

In theory, “rookie 10^th overall pick vs. draft bust entering his seventh year” shouldn’t be a big position battle. Sam Darnold has never had a 20-touchdown season! He has a 78.3 career passer rating! JJ McCarthy just quarterbacked the national champion!

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - DECEMBER 03: Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) celebrates after the Big 10 Championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and Purdue Boilermakers on December 3, 2022, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire) — INDIANAPOLIS, IN – DECEMBER 03: Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) celebrates after the Big 10 Championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and Purdue Boilermakers on December 3, 2022, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)

In practice, McCarthy is only 21, might need some seasoning and now has a knee injury, while Darnold is entering his third (fourth? fifth?) season as a “Maybe this is the time guy, having spent his career in the messiest of possible situations in New York and Carolina before spending a year as a little-used backup in San Francisco. After McCarthy had extended run and looked competent in the team’s first preseason game (with Darnold starting and playing the first drive), it seems inevitable that the rookie will take over eventually, but we now have to figure out (a) when, and (b) whether we as fantasy managers really care.

The “when” is even harder to answer since news of the knee injury. Week 1 appears to be off the table. I originally thought Week 7 was a logical point — the team has a Week 6 bye, and they play the Giants, 49ers, Texans, Packers and Jets before the bye. I’d much rather have my rookie quarterback face the secondaries of the Lions, Rams, Colts, Jaguars and Titans (their post-bye slate) than that pre-bye run (particularly the 49ers and Jets). That obviously depends on McCarthy’s health coming out of his surgery, so we can’t plan on it yet, but at least as of the second week of August, that seems like a very clear line of demarcation.

Now, do we care? Not really! The Vikings have one true difference-making weapon (pending how you feel about Jordan Addison, but he’s the complement, not the feature), at least until T.J. Hockenson’s return. It doesn’t take a star quarterback to figure out “Yo, throw it to Justin Jefferson.” Nick Mullens did it 44 times in four games in Weeks 15-18 last year, and Jefferson rewarded him with 30 receptions for 476 yards and 2 touchdowns over four games, the WR3 in that time. Heck, Mullens was the fantasy QB10 in that stretch, and his “didn’t throw it to Jefferson” stat line was 61-for-91 for 747 yards and 5 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. Mullens’ passer rating over that month was 88.6, but it was 98.5 when targeting only Jefferson. If you’re a former draft bust on his last chance as a starter, are you going to do anything but “throw it to that superstar”? If you’re a young first-rounder eager to prove he’s ready, why would you do anything else? You aren’t roster Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy outside of superflex/dynasty formats (if that, in Darnold’s case), and Jefferson’s fantasy upside is still solidly in the top tier, and he’s my WR3 heading into the season, with an argument to climb to WR2 if the CeeDee Lamb situation doesn’t improve.