100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Pittsburgh Steelers)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers lost 13-10 to the Ravens on Dec. 28, 2003. It dropped them to 6-10 and ended their season, earning them the 11^th overall pick, which they spent on 2004 Offensive Rookie of the Year Ben Roethlisberger. Notably, it’s also the last time the team ended a season under .500.

For comparison’s sake, the Jets spent their fourth-round pick in this year’s draft on Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen, who was born Jan. 20, 2004. The Steelers’ .500-or-better streak is now older than some NFL players. Calvin Johnson was drafted in the fourth season of their streak and has since played a whole career and been a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

There have been some close calls — they won in Week 17 of 2012 to get to 8-8, won their last three of 2013 to get to 8-8, won their last four, six of their last seven and seven of their last nine in 2022 to get to 9-8 — but even as every last little thing about the NFL has changed dramatically in the last 21 years, the one thing that has remained the same is the Steelers do not finish under .500.

How long can it last? Who knows. But I’m not even a Steelers fan, and that’s still fun.

The Questions

83. Is There a Pick Between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren?
84. How Good Can George Pickens Be?
85. Who Do We Want to Be This Team’s Quarterback?

100 Questions for 2024: Pittsburgh Steelers

Is There a Pick Between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren?

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 12: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) is upended by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Steven Nelson (3) during the preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 12, 2021 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire) — PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 12: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) is upended by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Steven Nelson (3) during the preseason game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 12, 2021 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

Jaylen Warren was the RB22 in PPR leagues last year, Najee Harris the RB23 (Warren actually led Harris literally every week of the season, if you can believe it). By current ADP, Harris is the RB25, Warren the RB27. So it’s a split, right? We can take either one, they’re worth about the same, on to Question No. 84?

I do not believe that to be the case!

For starters, Warren’s advantage over Harris is that he is a far better receiver — last year, Harris had 255 rush attempts vs. 29 receptions, while Warren had 149 rushes and 61 receptions. That’s very valuable in PPR, but then the team will now be rolling Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields at quarterback, and those two have combined for one running back season with even 50 receptions (Samaje Perine last year). Quarterbacks who run just don’t dump off to their running backs as often. Second, the Steelers did not pick up Harris’ fifth-year option but did keep him around and have him in place as the No. 1 back. That signifies a guy who the team will be fine to run into the ground this year with no concerns for his future.

Now, some conjecture: Warren and Harris each have 5 career fumbles, only Warren has almost exactly one-third the touches of Harris (so he fumbles three times as often). New Steelers OC Arthur Smith has a history as a vindictive coach (take out his illness game last year, and Falcons RB Bijan Robinson saw about 20% fewer snaps and 25% fewer touches in games he fumbled). With the Steelers having two competent running backs, any fumble is likely to cost these guys playing time, and Warren is clearly the more likely one to fumble.

And finally, the Steelers have been diligent in attempting to improve their offensive line the last couple of years, and they appear to have succeeded, with the line 10^th in our offensive line rankings entering the 2024 season. The back who benefits from a better line is the between-the-tackles runner, and that’s definitely Harris.

Neither back here will be irrelevant, but it seems clear to me that after years of being overrated, the pendulum has swung the other way and Harris is now underrated in fantasy. He won’t be exciting, but he’s the one in this backfield who can beat his ADP.

How Good Can George Pickens Be?

Everything that follows here assumes Brandon Aiyuk never makes his way to the Steelers, first because that’s the most likely outcome at this point, and second because I’m 37,000 words into this project and don’t want to have to envision a whole new scenario at this point.

Assuming no Aiyuk, then, the Steelers have one of the shallowest WR depth charts in the league. Sure, there are a lot of guys there you’ve heard of, but after George Pickens, it’s, in some order, Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III, Quez Watkins and Scotty Miller. Every player there has pinged in our collective consciousness at some point, but also, Jefferson, Austin, Watkins and Miller combined for 692 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. Wilson, the team’s third-round pick this year, did have 789 yards and 12 touchdowns at Michigan, but 789 yards isn’t exactly blowing anyone out of the water, and he’s already week-to-week with an ankle injury in camp.

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 11: Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 11, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 11: Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 11, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

So this team’s wide receiver room will live and die with Pickens, who had a fine rookie year with 801 yards and rose to 1,140 last year. It was wildly inconsistent — he had four weeks inside the top 12 (including WR2 in Week 16) and 10 outside the top 40, including WR92 in Week 9 and WR121 in Week 18. That’s an acceptable best ball profile I guess, but as a fantasy roster anchor (not to mention a real team’s roster anchor) you really need more weekly reliability.

The departure of Diontae Johnson could really boost Pickens’ targets, but even our FTN Fantasy projections have him at 98.2 in 2024 (he had 106 last year). The mess of second-tier names, a full season from Pat Freiermuth, a more-active running game (hi, Arthur Smith) and two quarterbacks who either run a lot or run a lot-lot all add up to the likelihood of a disappointing season from Pickens. At WR28 in ADP, maybe you draft him if you think you can handle the weekly volatility, but for most season-long roster constructions, I’m out.

Who Do We Want to Be This Team’s Quarterback?

The “we” in that question is fantasy managers. Steelers fans probably want Russell Wilson to start, because while we might be at the point where neither is good, there’s more of a chance that Wilson can remember his previous success than that Fields will unlock a new level to his game.

As fantasy managers, though, we have very different desires. And for fantasy … it’s the same answer.

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 01: Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) and Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) shake hands after a game between the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos on October 01, 2023 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire) — CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 01: Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) and Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) shake hands after a game between the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos on October 01, 2023 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

“But Fields rushes so much! It’s fantasy dynamite!” Yeah, true. And you know what Fields teams have almost universally had in common? Good fantasy numbers from Fields … and that’s pretty much it. Fields is such a good runner and such a bad passer (or at least has been) that he gets himself to fantasy stardom while not doing that much for his teammates. DJ Moore had a great season. That’s about it. Russell Wilson has made fantasy factors out of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin and Marshawn Lynch and Chris Carson, and sure, those guys are probably better than the options Fields had during his Bears tenure, but it’s clear through Fields’ career so far that he’s not going to create fantasy stars out of non-stars. He’ll need the stars to pre-exist.

It sounds like Wilson will be the starter in Pittsburgh. As fantasy managers, that should make us happy, not sad.