100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Jacksonville Jaguars)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars went to the AFC Championship Game in the 2017 season (and yes, Myles Jack should have scored a touchdown and the Jags should have gone to a Super Bowl) on the heels of a 10-6 season. It was the Jags’ first season with double-digit wins since 11 wins in 2007 … and, as it turns out, their last so far.

Despite a first overall pick at quarterback, a playoff appearance (and postseason win!) and minus odds to take the division last year, the Jaguars have maxed out at 9 wins in recent history. They’ve gone six years without 10-plus wins, 16 without more than 10. Put it in a table and it doesn’t look good:

Years Since 10+ Wins	Team
11	WAS
8	DEN NYJ
6	ATL CAR JAC NYG
5	CHI
3	IND NO SEA
2	ARI GB LV NE TB TEN
1	CIN LAC
0	BAL BUF CLE DAL DET HOU KC LAR MIA PHI PIT SF

Years Since 11+ Wins	Team
32	WAS
16	JAC
13	NYJ
8	DEN
7	ATL LV NYG
6	CAR
5	CHI HOU LAC
4	NE
3	IND NO PIT SEA
2	ARI GB LAR TB TEN
1	CIN MIN
0	BAL BUF CLE DAL DET KC MIA PHI SF

(Come on, Washington, that’s silly)

The sportsbooks have the Jags’ win total over/under at 8.5 for 2024. By that measure, a 9-win season would be a success. But this is a franchise that really needs to show it can compete-compete. They need to get to 10 wins, probably 11, if this generation of Jaguars football is going to be a success.

The Questions

47. Can Trevor Lawrence Take the Next Step at Last?
48. Do We Care About Brian Thomas Jr. Right Away?
49. Is Evan Engram Going to Do That Again?

100 Questions for 2024: Jacksonville Jaguars

Can Trevor Lawrence Take the Next Step at Last?

“At last” feels bold here, but one of the tenets of recent football (and, frankly, sports at large) is that the best guys are very good right away, and Lawrence is not doing that. His average season-long fantasy finish over his three years is QB14, with a QB8 finish in 2022 his high mark. He’s averaged under 20 touchdowns and 13.0 interceptions a year. Six quarterbacks have at least 35 interceptions since Lawrence entered the league, and his 58 touchdowns is second worst in that time to only new teammate Mac Jones’ 46. The other four (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr) all have at least 72. And Lawrence hasn’t displayed as much rushing ability as promised, with not even 340 yards in a season. Lawrence was never expected to be Lamar Jackson, but he was expected to have a high floor in part because of his legs, and instead, he’s scored 21.5% of his career fantasy points as a runner, the same percentage as Zach Wilson and lower than Sam Howell.

Of course, Lawrence has some understandable excuses. He had the Urban Meyer mess in 2021. He showed some good growth in 2022. His receivers dropped or stepped out of bounds on every third pass in 2023 (approximately), and of course he was pretty darn injured:

Trevor Lawrence was hurt in 2023, dog pic.twitter.com/xwdItK0zQ7

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 15, 2024

All that, combined with the athletic profile we know Lawrence has, paints the picture of a guy who should have a slightly depressed ADP but a nice ceiling. And all of that is true … except the word “slightly.” Because after a QB8 ADP and QB13 finish last year (despite playing through injury), Lawrence in 2024 is being drafted as the QB17. That ADP screams of drafters who have been burned in the past just passing on Lawrence for heart reasons over head ones. I have absolutely no issue drafting Lawrence at not only QB17, but something like QB10 or QB11. Maybe you pair him with someone, maybe you partner him with someone or use him as an insurance policy for an Anthony Richardson or a Joe Burrow, but someone with his ability at QB17 is kind of ridiculous.

Do We Care About Brian Thomas Jr. Right Away?

ORLANDO, FL - SEPTEMBER 03: LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) runs with the ball after catching a pass during a college football game against the Florida State Seminoles on September 03, 2023 at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire) — ORLANDO, FL – SEPTEMBER 03: LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) runs with the ball after catching a pass during a college football game against the Florida State Seminoles on September 03, 2023 at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

In our breakdown of each team’s team needs this offseason, our Dan Fornek said the Jags needed to overhaul their offensive line. In my offseason wish list for each team, I had the Jaguars signing an offensive lineman. So naturally, the Jaguars spent their first-round pick on a wide receiver, not drafting a lineman until Day 3. To be fair, Calvin Ridley departed the team between our writeups and the draft, but still, you’d have to think that means the team really likes that receiver (Brian Thomas Jr.), especially given they had already signed a poor man’s version of him in free agency in Gabe Davis.

Christian Kirk is the WR1 in Jacksonville, and he should be. But given the weakness of the team’s line, the Jags need (a) more good receivers and (b) more fast receivers. Well, Thomas had 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns at LSU last year and ran a 4.33-second 40 at the NFL Combine. He’s not a sure thing by any means, especially given Davis offers a similar-if-lesser skillset and thus could steal targets away. But Thomas is available at WR49 in drafts, behind names like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keon Coleman and Courtland Sutton who are all interesting but have lower ceilings. Maybe Thomas has a lower floor, but in the 120s of drafts, I’m targeting ceiling, and Thomas offers that in spades.

Is Evan Engram Going to Do That Again?

I heard a podcast recently debate the merits of David Njoku and Evan Engram in fantasy in 2024, and the host who was arguing in favor of Njoku asked the other hosts, “If I told you one of these guys finished as a top-two tight end this year, who would you choose?” That was ostensibly an argument for Njoku’s ceiling, but … Evan Engram was literally the TE2 in PPR leagues last year, guys. I feel like that’s been overlooked because of the Sam LaPorta explosion and the Travis Kelce continued amazement and the T.J. Hockenson surge and so many other things.

So we know what Engram can do, at least in a vacuum. The question is just whether he has any real chance of actually doing that again. And for that, we need to look at one very specific thing: Using the FTN Fantasy splits tool, let’s look at how Engram fared in games with and without Christian Kirk last year (using “more than 1 snap” for Kirk, since he played 1 snap in Week 13 against Cincinnati before getting hurt and Engram went 9-82-1 on 9 targets in that game after the injury):

With Kirk, Engram was fine! 10.6 PPR points per game is on the fringe of the TE1 conversation, a guy you get late in drafts and are perfectly happy with, even if he’s not the reason you win your league. Without Kirk, Engram is a superduperstar — 19.6 PPR points per game over a full season would be third all time behind Kelce’s 2020 (20.9) and Rob Gronkowski’s 2011 (20.7). So if Kirk is healthy for 2024 (and he appears to be), it seems clear the Jags want him to be the focus of targets over Engram. The tight end will still get enough work to be a borderline fantasy starter by sheer quantity, but a TE8 spent on Engram is a pick that thinks Kirk misses at least some time and/or the Jaguars will be changing their receiver/tight end strategy in 2024, and neither of those is a bet I think is wise to make.