100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Seattle Seahawks)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Seattle Seahawks.

The only team with a perfect distribution of results in the last four years — a first place in the division, a second, a third and a fourth — is the Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC West in 2020, finished last in 2021, second in 2022 and then third last year. It’s actually a fairly big departure from the Seahawks’ history, because that fourth-place finish in the NFC West in 2021 is the only fourth-place finish in the NFC West the Seahawks have ever had.

The last time the Seahawks finished last in their division, they were in the AFC, going 6-10 in 2000. But even with that last place in 2021, the Seahawks haven’t won fewer than 7 games in a season since going 5-11 way back in 2009. Despite a little run during the Russell Wilson era as one of the league’s powerhouses, the Seahawks don’t have that reputation over the long term, but while they haven’t maintained a high ceiling, this team carries on with a higher floor than just about anyone, and that’s nothing to sneeze at.

Now, there’s a new coaching staff in Seattle for the first time since that 2009 season, so we’ll see if that run of competence-plus continues with Pete Carroll out the door. But in an NFL where teams that contend often end up having to rebuild and teams that have a high floor usually match it with a low ceiling, the Seahawks have bucked that trend by staying generally competent and complementing it with some dominant years.

The Questions

89. Can Geno Smith Rebound to His 2022 Performance?
90. Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
91. How Much Does Zach Charbonnet Matter?

100 Questions for 2024: Seattle Seahawks

Can Geno Smith Rebound to His 2022 Performance?

Geno Smith was fantasy’s QB5 in 2022, winning the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award after having started five games in total between 2015 and 2021. He led the league in completion percentage. He was fourth in the league in passing touchdowns with 30, nearly equaling the 34 he had in eight career seasons before that. He led the Seahawks to a Wild Card berth.

Geno Smith was fantasy’s QB19 in 2022. He was only 19^th in the league in completion percentage and fell from 30 touchdowns to 20. He and the Seahawks finished in third place, out of the playoffs.

NEW ORLEANS, LA - OCTOBER 09: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) calls out assignments during second half action during the football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 9, 2022 in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire) — NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 09: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) calls out assignments during second half action during the football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 9, 2022 in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire)

Pretty steep dropoff, yeah? Well let’s frame these things a bit differently!

In 2022, Smith had an overall PFF grade of 79.8. In 2023, it was 82.9. His adjusted completion percentage (accounting for drops) was 77.8% in 2022, 77.4% in 2023, in part because he went from having 14 drops to 22. His aDOT was an identical 8.2 yards each year. His turnover-worth throw rate (per the FTN Fantasy StatsHub) dropped from 4.3% in 2022 to 3.7% in 2023. Yes, the Seahawks went from a second-place Wild Card team to a third-place no-playoffs team, but … they went 9-8 both years.

In other words, the perception of a big dropoff on Smith’s seasons is far more just that — perception — than it is reality. He was more or less just as good last year as he had been the year before, and it wouldn’t take too much effort to argue he was actually better. The big differences between his seasons were (a) pressure — the Seahawks line couldn’t get healthy in 2023 — and (b) rushing — he ran for a single touchdown each year, but 366 yards in 2022 and only 155 in 2023.

Before last year, I had Smith pegged as one of my busts of the season, owing to his low ceiling (only four top-five weekly finishes and a down year for fantasy quarterbacks in general, with a point total that would have been QB10 in 2021 or QB12 in 2020). This year, it’s the opposite — after a QB19 finish last year, we can expect Smith to improve in 2024. He’s not as good as his QB5 finish. He’s not as bad as his QB19. He’s the quintessential mid-range QB2 who won’t make your season, but you can slide him into your lineup and more or less forget about him, and when you check back late in the season you’ll say “That’s all right then.” And considering he’s QB25 by current ADP, he’s actually a bargain.

Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

From 2018 to 2022, Tyler Lockett was comfortably the most underrated player in fantasy, drafted on average at WR28 and finishing on average as the WR13.2, never finishing worse than WR16 and beating his ADP every single year. He finally dipped a bit last year, the WR27 in ADP and finishing as WR32. He set six-year lows (basically since Doug Baldwin retired) in yards (894), touchdowns (5) and yards per route run (1.61).

BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 05: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) makes reception against Baltimore Ravens cornerback Arthur Maulet (10) during the Seattle Seahawks game versus the Baltimore Ravens on November 5, 2023 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire) — BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 05: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) makes reception against Baltimore Ravens cornerback Arthur Maulet (10) during the Seattle Seahawks game versus the Baltimore Ravens on November 5, 2023 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

It would be tempting to credit Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a good portion of that drop. After all, when a team drafts a receiver in the first round, it’s not a surprise if he steals production from the aging veteran. And sure, maybe JSN did take some of Lockett’s work, but he still only got to a not-that-remarkable 628 yards and 4 touchdowns himself.

Heading into 2024, we know DK Metcalf is the clear WR1 in this offense, but the answer of who is the second-best Seahawks receiver is an important one to answer. And for me, the answer is … both of them!

Well, sort of. Ryan Grubb is in now as the Seahawks’ new offensive coordinator, and while the team did re-sign Noah Fant, the Seahawks let both Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson go in free agency. This is a team that is screaming a dedication to more 11 personnel with three receivers on the field. And that means more work for all three of them. But the biggest beneficiary is undoubtedly Smith-Njigba. After being almost exclusively a slot receiver at Ohio State (88.8% of his snaps from the slot in his one healthy season), JSN was only mostly a slot receiver last year (67.9%). But with Grubb all but certain to run the three of them at the same time more in 2024, he can spend more of his time out of the slot. And while Lockett could easily repeat his WR32-or-close season, there’s a path in PPR for Smith-Njigba to have a true second-year breakout, to the tune of a top-25 season or better. At WR45 by ADP, he’s one of my biggest draft-day bargains.

How Much Does Zach Charbonnet Matter?

There are a certain number of fantasy points available to each team’s position groups. It’s different for each team and each position group, of course, so that alone doesn’t say much, but it’s a nice way to think about divvying up the pie. You can claim Player X is going to improve, but generally speaking it will be at the expense of Player Y, and even if you forecast the overall team to produce more, there’s a cap on the ceiling there.

In 2022, the Seahawks didn’t have much at running back behind Kenneth Walker after Rashaad Penny got hurt, leading to a situation where Travis Homer had to start and they were claiming the likes of Tony Jones Jr. in desperation. So they drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. And as a result, Walker went from an RB18 finish and 202.5 PPR points in 2022 to … RB19 and 199.4 points in 2023.

CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 15: Seattle Seahawks Running Back Zach Charbonnet (26) runs a route during the NFL game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Cincinnati Bengals on October 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – OCTOBER 15: Seattle Seahawks Running Back Zach Charbonnet (26) runs a route during the NFL game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Cincinnati Bengals on October 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

Charbonnet just wasn’t that relevant. He had 141 touches, the No. 65 total among rookie running backs in the last decade, fewer than guys like Wayne Gallman and Thomas Rawls, despite being the third back off the board in last year’s draft (the first not named Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs). He did have 33 receptions, but at a much lower yards per reception than Walker (8.9 to 6.3), and he only scored 1 touchdown all year.

To buy into a second-year breakout from Charbonnet, we have to believe he’ll get a lot more work than he did last year, and considering his profile (61 receptions, 518 receiving yards his last two years in college), it would be much more likely to come as a receiver. Well, we already established that the Seahawks are very likely to be throwing the ball a lot more in 2024 and keep DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the offense, with Ryan Grubb treating the offense like he treated the Washington one in college last year. That means Charbonnet isn’t likely to get the receptions necessary to be a big factor that way.

But maybe there’s room for more work on the ground? Well, Walker missed two games last year and most of a third. Those games (Weeks 11-13) were the only three games Charbonnet reached double-digit carries last year. Combined, he ran for 154 yards on 48 carries in those games, 3.21 yards per carry.

This is a back who maxed out at 60 rushing yards last year and 39 receiving yards, who scored only one touchdown, who never topped even 10 touches (not carries, touches) in games his starter was healthy and available. The selling point for Charbonnet is “he was a second-round pick,” and that’s not nearly enough. There’s no real reason to invest in Charbonnet in 2024, and Walker is one of the more secure bell cows out there, albeit with a lower ceiling than some of the others.