100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Washington Commanders)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Washington Commanders.

I’ve spent a lot of the intros to the various teams in this series talking about the last time they did X or how long it’s been since they did Y. No team is more fun (or, if you’re a fan, more depressing) to do that with than Washington.

For example:

Last time they had a winning record: 2016. Only the Jets and Broncos have stretches as long.
Last time they won 10-plus games: 2012. Comfortably the longest stretch.
Last time they won more than 10 games: 1991. Twice as long as anyone else at 32 years, only Jaguars (16) and Jets (13) have more than eight straight seasons without one.
Last time they won a playoff game: 2005. Only the Raiders (2002) and Dolphins (2000) have stretches as long.
Last time they had the same Week 1 starting quarterback in consecutive years: 2016-2017, Kirk Cousins. Only the Colts (2015-2016, Andrew Luck) have a stretch even close to as long.

Everyone knew the Commanders needed change at the top, and in the last few years, the team has changed owner, general manager and head coach (in some cases multiple times). Now it’s a whole new group of leadership, including a new offensive coordinator, and there’s a new quarterback in place. That doesn’t guarantee these trends will end (Robert Griffin III was supposed to have ended the futility as well, and we know how that went). But at the very least, there’s long-term optimism in Washington that hasn’t been there in a while.

The Questions

98. What Is Jayden Daniels’ Most Likely Outcome?
99. How Will Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. Co-Exist?
100. Is This Just the Terry McLaurin Show?

100 Questions for 2024: Washington Commanders

What Is Jayden Daniels’ Most Likely Outcome?

I originally wrote this quest as “What is Jayden Daniels’ ceiling?” But we know the answer to that, because that feels like all anyone has talked about. His ceiling is the latest superhero Konami Code QB, with a path to being the overall QB1 or close. A final college season of 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns will have people seeing fireworks.

TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 01: LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) reacts from the sideline during the ReliaQuest Bowl against the Wisconsin Badgers on January 1, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire) — TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 01: LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) reacts from the sideline during the ReliaQuest Bowl against the Wisconsin Badgers on January 1, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)

But it’s more helpful (I think) to discuss Daniels without the rose glasses on. Yes, the sky’s the limit, but he’s also a late-developing college quarterback who never topped 17 passing touchdowns in his first four years before a fifth-year eruption, and whose slight frame and potential for injury were mentioned in virtually every single scouting report about him coming into the draft. There’s room for Daniels to be a paradigm-shifter, but there’s also room for Marcus Mariota to start 12 games in 2024 and the Commanders to expand all their bullet points above.

Most likely? Well, if you recall the opener to this whole series, I’m in on rookie quarterbacks performing earlier than ever before. The drafting community is in as well, with him climbing from QB14 when I wrote that (less than three weeks ago) to QB12 now. I am very skeptical of Daniels’ real-football upside, but as a fantasy asset, there’s little doubt in my world that he will be a big-time contributor …

… As long as he’s healthy, and that’s where I get scared. We saw Anthony Richardson get hurt three different times last year, and while yes, some of Richardson’s injury issues certainly come from his inexperience, which is a problem Daniels doesn’t have, he’s 35 pounds heavier than Daniels at the same height, so Daniels could struggle with the hits he takes at the NFL level.

The ceiling makes Daniels a fine draft pick, even at his elevated ADP. But he’s one of those quarterbacks for whom you absolutely have to draft a companion. Maybe get a Jared Goff around the same ADP as Daniels, maybe get a Trevor Lawrence or an Aaron Rodgers a few rounds later, but the risks around Daniels mean you have to have a backup plan in place.

How Will Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. Co-Exist?

If you said before the 2023 season that Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler would be backfieldmates, the conclusion would be fairly obvious: Ekeler would be the main back, dominating receiving work and getting a fair number of carries, with Robinson being the bruiser who gets short-yardage and goal-line work. And it’s possible things still go that way, but after a 2023 season that saw Ekeler hit career lows in basically every efficiency metric (yards per carry 3.5, previous low 4.2; yards per route run 1.25, previous low 1.55; overall PFF grade 60.2, previous low 74.6; 13.2 PPR points per game, lowest since he was Melvin Gordon’s backup), the bloom came off Ekeler’s rose. Meanwhile, Robinson ran for 95 more yards than Ekeler despite one fewer carry. And crucially, Robinson established himself as a receiving threat. He was still behind then-teammate Antonio Gibson as a receiver out of the backfield in Washington, but after a rookie year that saw Robinson catch only 9 balls on only 12 targets for 60 yards and a score, he jumped to 36-368-4 last year on 43 targets.

LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 18: Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson (8) rushes up field during the New York Giants game versus the Washington Commanders on December 18, 2022, at FedEx Field in Landover, MD. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire) — LANDOVER, MD – DECEMBER 18: Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson (8) rushes up field during the New York Giants game versus the Washington Commanders on December 18, 2022, at FedEx Field in Landover, MD. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire)

So if Robinson is more efficient on the ground, a threat as a receiver, and nearly four full years younger than Ekeler, why are they only four spots apart in ADP? Why is Robinson RB29 and Ekeler RB33?

I would like to hype myself as one of the first “Yo, Austin Ekeler is good” voices out there, writing my first article to that effect in February of 2018, just after his 74-touch rookie campaign. So this pains me to say, but I would be surprised if we ever again see another version of Austin Ekeler who needs to be on fantasy rosters, let alone in fantasy lineups. As I said in our Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions about the Commanders, I not only think Robinson is a strong sleeper (a top-20 back in 2024), but I think 2024 is Austin Ekeler’s final NFL season.

Is This Just the Terry McLaurin Show?

We more or less know what Terry McLaurin is. High floor, low ceiling, potential for more if he can get competent quarterbacking. Pencil him in for 80-ish receptions, a little over 1,000 yards and a few touchdowns and get excited if he beats that. (Look at his career stat lines. That’s who he is.)

Year	Tgt	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPR PPG
2019	93	58	919	7	13.7
2020	134	87	1118	4	14.9
2021	130	77	1053	5	12.6
2022	120	77	1191	5	13.5
2023	132	79	1002	4	12.0

But as far as known quantities go in the Washington pass-catcher room, that’s it. Former first-rounder Jahan Dotson was supposed to be the running mate, but that was based on an obviously unsustainable scoring rate as a rookie (7 touchdowns on 61 targets in 2022), and he’s now two years into a career of 1.0 yards per route run and 4 or fewer targets 13 times in 29 career games (including each of his last four last year), and the team saying in camp that they are looking for their No. 2 receiver. Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus are a combined eight seasons into their career and have topped 500 yards once (Zaccheaus in 2022). Luke McCaffrey is a rookie second-rounder, and while the future is bright, there are worries about whether he will be ready for big work right away. Zach Ertz is a few days older than electricity and was last anything we’d call good in … 2018? And then Ben Sinnott is interesting but also a 22-yard-old rookie tight end who totaled just over 1,000 yards in three years in college.

Given Jayden Daniels’ likely propensity to tuck it and run, at least at the start of his career, the pass-catching in Washington might not be much beyond McLaurin, and even he is more of the known quantity/not much upside pick in the middle rounds who won’t wow anyone. Early in the season, I would expect Dotson to be the WR2, but that’s such a low-value role with a running quarterback that I wouldn’t even consider him worth a draft pick. If I’m drafting a receiver or tight end in Washington not named McLaurin (and I probably am not), it’s one of the rookies — McCaffrey, for the chances he secures a bigger role later in the season when Daniels is more comfortable, or Sinnott, for the chances Ertz actually does disintegrate and he has the job to himself. But even then the advice is to draft a rookie with no guaranteed role and stash him until one develops, which it might never do. So no, I’m not targeting anyone in Washington after Daniels, McLaurin and Robinson.