100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (Baltimore Ravens)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The Baltimore Ravens.

Since the start of the 2022 season, the average NFL team has had a two-score lead (9 or more points) in about 14 games (14.8). The Ravens have done it in nearly double that average, a cool 28 of 34 games (82.4%). No team has done it as often. The 49ers are at 27. The Eagles are at 25. The two-time defending champion Chiefs are at 31. (The Cardinals and Giants are last, at 7 apiece.)

So they have the best record in the last two years, right? Nope! The Ravens have a .676 winning percentage in that span (23-11). That’s sixth worst in that span, behind the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Bills and Cowboys. I made the point in this space a year ago that the Ravens are really good at jumping out to a hot start to the season before fading late, but the same is true of their in-game prowess. Someone connect the Ravens with Mariano Rivera, because they desperately need a closer.

The Questions

11. Is He Derrick Henry, Or Is He Still King Henry?
12. Is Mark Andrews Still a Top-Tier Tight End?
13. So Can Zay Flowers Take the Next Step?

100 Questions for 2024: Baltimore Ravens

Is He Derrick Henry, Or Is He Still King Henry?

In 2023, Derrick Henry put up a career-low in yards per carry (4.17) and led the league in carries for the second straight year and fourth of the last five (so, you know, a lot of miles on those legs). He turned 30 in January, and now he’s on a new team where he’ll run behind our No. 26-ranked offensive line. It is very easy to paint a picture of pessimism for Henry in 2024.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 02: Tennessee Titans Running Back Derrick Henry (22) runs past Indianapolis Colts Safety Rodney McLeod (26) and goes in for the touchdown during an NFL game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts on October 02, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire) — INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 02: Tennessee Titans Running Back Derrick Henry (22) runs past Indianapolis Colts Safety Rodney McLeod (26) and goes in for the touchdown during an NFL game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts on October 02, 2022 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis IN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

You know what’s also easy? Doing the opposite. At age 29, Derrick Henry led the league in carries despite playing his fewest snaps per game (18.6) since 2018, owing to the presence of a good No. 2 back (Tyjae Spears) for the first time since the days of DeMarco Murray. He scored double-digit touchdowns for the sixth straight year and has become at least a bit of a receiving weapon, catching 28 balls, his second year over 20 after being under that in his first six years. He has a rushing quarterback (which means defense attention will be divided) for the first time, and the offense he’s joining produced a 13-rushing-TD back last year in Gus Edwards who is certainly at least a notch or two below Henry as a rusher.

So a big factor in 2024 is picking your paragraph there. Me? I think Henry is unequivocally worse than he used to be … and I don’t really think it matters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Henry’s 2024 works out to something like 1,000 yards on 260 carries (so 3.85 yards per carry) and only 15 or so receptions … but 20 rushing touchdowns and a handful of 50-plus-yard runs. He’s not at his peak, but the presence of Lamar Jackson will certainly clear lanes for Henry a few times, and we know the Ravens are more likely to hand the ball off to Henry at the goal line than anything else. Is that a great NFL season? Eh, it’s inefficient. But is it great fantasy output. He’s not the King, but he’s still a figurehead.

Is Mark Andrews Still a Top-Tier Tight End?

Counting the Ravens’ first playoff game, Mark Andrews missed seven straight games down the stretch last year with his ankle injury before returning in the Conference Championship Round (and even then, barely — 18 snaps, 2 targets). He also missed Week 1 with an injury. Considering we saw less of him last year than we had in several years, and the last we saw of him was a shadow of himself hobbling through a playoff game, it’s easy to think 2023 was a down year for Andrews overall. But he was the PPR TE3 from Week 2 until his injury in Week 11. Take out the game where he was hurt after only 7 snaps, and Andrews’ 17-game pace last year was 111.4 targets, 81.2 receptions, 984.1 yards, 11.3 touchdowns and 247.6 PPR points, which would have been overall TE1 numbers for the year.

Working against Andrews is that Isaiah Likely popped in his absence (so maybe the Ravens divide the work up a bit more) and Zay Flowers developed as well (so there’s another mouth to feed). Those … don’t strike me as big concerns. The No. 2 wide receiver in Baltimore is either Nelson Agholor or Rashod Bateman, which is another way of saying we aren’t very worried about the No. 2 wide receiver in Baltimore. Sure, Isaiah Likely should get more run (he was my Ravens sleeper in our Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions series), but he’s still the No. 2. Andrews is the TE3 or TE4 in early ADP, and I think that’s a very safe play — I could argue him for TE2 pretty easily.

So Can Zay Flowers Take the Next Step?

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 17: Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Zay Flowers (4) reacts during an NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 17, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 17: Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Zay Flowers (4) reacts during an NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 17, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

There was a clear tier break among rookie wide receivers last year. Six of them averaged at least 8.0 PPR points per game, and then no one else even reached 6.0. At 8.1, Zay Flowers was at the bottom of the former list, although that misses that his best game of the season (at least from a fantasy-production standpoint; we’ll ignore some of the other circumstantial stuff) came when he caught 5 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens’ playoff loss to the Chiefs. He was the PPR WR30, and he’s now being drafted as the WR25. I’d like to pump the brakes, though. Yes, Flowers put up 206.4 PPR points as a rookie, so maybe there’s room for growth. That said, the ceiling of a Lamar Jackson receiver, especially with Derrick Henry and a healthy Mark Andrews, is certainly low — Flowers’ 2023 was the second-best fantasy receiver a Baltimore receiver has had since drafting Jackson, and the No. 1 was Marquise Brown’s 2021, a “whopping” 226.3 points. There’s just not a lot of upside for a Ravens receiver, and while a solid WR3/flex performance is just fine, you want someone who can go above that, and I’m not at all sure Flowers can.