Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Training camps have started, are starting and will start around the NFL, meaning the NFL and fantasy football season is almost upon us. And while performance in the preseason only matters so much, one thing fantasy managers definitely need to watch through training camp and the preseason is the battle for playing time.
This time a year ago, we broke down the training camp position battles to watch, and a lot of times, the winner didn’t matter that much, but also … Jake Ferguson won the Cowboys TE battle and finished as TE9 in fantasy. Raheem Mostert emerged over Jeff Wilson and was RB5. D’Andre Swift over Rashaad Penny, Brian Robinson over Antonio Gibson, Baker Mayfield over Kyle Trask, Sam Howell over Jacoby Brissett… just being in a position battle in training camp doesn’t mean the winner can’t become a big fantasy factor in the season, and so as fantasy managers we need to stay on top of those battles.
So we’re taking a look at the position battles to watch in training camp. Sometimes, there’s an incumbent who doesn’t have a firm hold on the starting job. Sometimes, there’s a rookie pushing for a gig. Sometimes, it’s an underwhelming group of options. Regardless, whoever grabs the job has a shot in fantasy, and we need to know it.
Today: Running backs
Follow along with the series: QB | WR | TE
Training Camp Position Battles to Watch: Running Back
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris vs. Jaylen Warren
Would you be surprised to learn that there was no point in the 2023 season where Najee Harris had more PPR points than Jaylen Warren? Because it’s true:
Harris made it close at the end, with the backs ending as the RB22 (Warren, 196.4 points) and RB23 (Harris, 195.5) in PPR leagues. Every expectation is that the Steelers will give Harris the lion’s share of the work in 2024, almost certainly his last year in Pittsburgh as he enters free agency. But if we get into camp and Warren is running ahead of Harris, he has a high ceiling in fantasy.
Carolina Panthers
Jonathon Brooks vs. Chuba Hubbard vs. Rashaad Penny vs. Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders was supposed to solve the backfield in Carolina, at least for a few years. Instead, he kind of ruined it. Sanders, who never ran for under 4.6 yards per attempt in four years in Philadelphia, ran for a lowly 3.3 for the Panthers. That was the fourth worst among 53 players with at least 100 carries last year. 14th worst on that list? The guy who had to take over for Sanders, Chuba Hubbard. And Rashaad Penny could only earn 11 carries as an Eagle last year. In other words, comfortably the most talented back in Carolina this year is rookie second-rounder Jonathon Brooks, except that he’s recovering from a torn ACL. There are already reports out of Carolina that Brooks might not be ready for camp. So we’ll have to watch his status throughout the preseason, because if Brooks is healthy, he’s got big upside, but if he’s not, this might be a backfield to avoid altogether.
Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss vs. Chase Brown
On the surface, you’d expect the Bengals to deploy Zack Moss and Chase Brown as a 1-2 punch, with Moss taking the lead ball carrier role and Brown the primary pass-catcher — in only 15 targets last year, Brown came in only 41 yards of Moss’ career high in receiving yards. That depends on the version of Moss (793 yards) being the version we get again (never more than 481 in any other season). If Moss regresses and Brown can sneak his way into the No. 1 job, maybe a Joe Mixon-esque ceiling isn’t on the table, but it’s closer.
Los Angeles Chargers
Gus Edwards vs. J.K. Dobbins vs. Kimani Vidal
J.K. Dobbins (probably) has the most raw talent, but he’s never shown an ability to stay on the field and is now trying to come back from an Achilles injury. Kimani Vidal is the youngest and freshest, but he’s a sixth-round rookie who enters without much fanfare. Gus Edwards ran for 13 touchdowns last year, but he’s six years into his NFL career and hasn’t topped 810 yards on the ground and has only 30 career receptions. Right now, Edwards appears to have a lead on the job, but that appears to be the high-floor option, and if Dobbins shows he’s healthy and/or Vidal can surprise as a sixth-rounder, they could jump Edwards in a hurry.
Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard vs. Tyjae Spears
Are the Titans getting the 2023 version of Tony Pollard or the 2022 version? Tyjae Spears is unquestionably better than the Pollard the Cowboys got for most of 2023, but then that Pollard was recovering from a pretty significant leg injury he suffered in the playoffs only a few months earlier. In the department of “Pollard should be back to normal,” I present to you this, Pollard’s four-game rolling average of forced missed tackles per rush the last two seasons:
Early last season, Pollard was recovering from injury and struggled to evade tackles. Over the course of the year, he got healthier and beat the tacklers more. To me, that says he’ll be back to normal in 2024. But it’s worth monitoring Pollard’s elusiveness in camp, because if he struggles to break tackles, Spears could jump him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White vs. Bucky Irving
As I mentioned in the Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rachaad White ran for 3.6 yards per carry last year, the lowest average for any back with at least 250 PPR points in the last decade. Bucky Irving enters the league coming off 6.4 yards per carry at Oregon last year. White will still be the primary pass-catching back in Tampa, but if we see Irving getting a lot of work in camp, we might have a 1A/1B situation.
Honorable Mention
These battles might not be that heated, but the backup names have at least been floated, so they warrant a small note.
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner vs. Trey Benson
This isn’t so much a battle as a high-upside handcuff situation. James Conner has the job unless/until he gets injured. But Benson could make things interesting.
Las Vegas Raiders: Zamir White vs. Alexander Mattison
Zamir White certainly has the inside track to the starting role, but it’s in a situation pretty similar to the one Alexander Mattison flamed out in a year ago, as the handcuff who got the starting gig and disappointed. And it’s only a year ago that Mattison was being taken high.
Cleveland Browns: D’Onta Foreman vs. Jerome Ford (vs. Nick Chubb?)
If Chubb were out for the year, this one would be far more interesting. But the threat of Chubb’s return (whether early in the season or late) means that these guys are better suited as DFS plays or short-term roster fillers rather than long-term investments.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones vs. Ty Chandler
The Vikings pounced on Aaron Jones this offseason when the Packers moved on. Jones is better than Chandler, but he also turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in three of the last four years. Camp will show us whether Minnesota envisions this as a starter/backup or as a fancy committee.
Washington Commanders: Austin Ekeler vs. Brian Robinson Jr.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where these two are both healthy and it isn’t a situation where Brian Robinson Jr. is the ball carrier and Austin Ekeler the pass-catching option. But we’ll definitely want to watch how Ekeler looks in camp, because he struggled in Los Angeles last year.
