100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2024 (New England Patriots)

As we head toward the start of the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season, FTN Fantasy editor-in-chief Daniel Kelley is asking (and attempting to answer) the 100 most pressing questions in fantasy football. This is 100 Questions. Today: The New England Patriots.

From 2001 to 2019, the Patriots averaged 12.2 wins per season. You knew it was good, but that number is still crazy to see. Literally, a 12-4 season in Tom Brady’s final season in New England lowered the team’s average win total.

Since Brady’s departure, they’ve averaged 7.3 wins per season. That’s not actually terrible! But it is a heck of a departure, even worse that the most recent season was 4-13.

But there’s a more fun way to look at it, at least from my perspective. From 2001 to 2019, the Patriots averaged 2.2 playoff games per season. And that’s with 13 first-round byes in that time. Give them 13 “wins” in the Wild Card Round to account for their “we were too good to even play those games,” and they averaged 2.8.

In four years since, they’ve played exactly one playoff game (0.25 per year), and they lost 47-17 in that game to the Bills, in a game that wasn’t even that close.

Everything good ends — otherwise it wouldn’t end. That’s the saying. And nothing illustrates that as well as the 21^st century New England Patriots.

The Questions

68. Can Rhamondre Stevenson Rebound to His 2022 Performance?
69. If You Have (Approximately) 114 WR2s and WR3s, do you have a WR1?
70. Cut to the Chase — Do We Care About Any Patriots?

100 Questions for 2024: New England Patriots

Can Rhamondre Stevenson Rebound to His 2022 Performance?

ATLANTA, GA Ð NOVEMBER 18: New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs past Atlanta cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) during the NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons on November 18th, 2021 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Not much was expected out of the Patriots for fantasy entering 2023. They didn’t have a quarterback drafted in the top 25, a wide receiver in the top 40, a tight end in the top 25. The exception was at running back, where Rhamondre Stevenson, coming off a season with 1,461 scrimmage yards and a PPR RB7 finish, was the RB11 in ADP. And boy, did we mess up, with Stevenson finishing as RB35 and missing the last five games of the season (he was only RB27 in points per game).

Stevenson has never been a big touchdown guy, with 15 in three years (he only scored 6 in his RB7 season). His contributions stemmed from (a) being on the field — he played 699 snaps in 2022, with Damien Harris at 238 and no other Patriots RB over 53, (b) being efficient — his 5.0 yards per carry ranked sixth among backs with at least 100 carries, and (c) catching passes — he was third among running backs with 88 targets and fourth with 69 receptions.

So we need to figure out if Stevenson can rebound in any or all of those categories. Let’s go by the letter!

Availability. Obviously, injuries are unpredictable, but the fact that the Patriots gave Stevenson a four-year extension this offseason (at age 26) tells me that at the very least the Patriots think he’ll be healthy and on the field. We’ll give him a yes on this one.
Efficiency. After 5.0 yards per carry in 2022, Stevenson fell to 4.0 last year, dropping by a yard per carry after contact (3.8 to 2.8). And now Trent Brown is gone to Cincinnati and our FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings have the Patriots’ line at No. 19. New head coach has already said the line is “still under construction.” Things can come together quickly, but there’s no way to call this anything but a no.
Receiving. In three years in the league, Stevenson is 13^th among running backs with 121 receptions. One of the backs ahead of him? New teammate Antonio Gibson, 11^th with 136. Gibson doesn’t have a season with 69 receptions and 88 targets like Stevenson’s 2022, but he’s had between 50 and 60 targets and between 40 and 50 receptions each of the last three years. Stevenson ceded receiving work to Ezekiel Elliott last year, so Gibson is going to run away (pun sort of intended) with the passing-down work here. Definite no.

The best ability is availability, and we have to (at least for now) give Stevenson the nod there. But that’s just about the only thing to be excited about for Stevenson in 2024, and it’s not nearly enough. He’s RB23 in current ADP, and that’s too high.

If You Have (Approximately) 114 WR2s and WR3s, Do You Have a WR1?

Last year’s sixth-rounder, DeMario Douglas, didn’t score a touchdown as a rookie, but he was a fine quantity-if-not-quality guy for the team, catching 4-plus balls seven times in 14 games. Kendrick Bourne missed much of 2023 with a torn ACL (and isn’t back yet), but he’s had flashes in his New England tenure. K.J. Osborn scored 15 touchdowns the last three years in Minnesota, Jalen Reagor and Tyquan Thornton are former top-two-round draft picks. And the Patriots added two receivers in this year’s draft in Ja’Lynn Polk (second round) and Javon Baker (fourth).

There’s not a receiver here who is a star now, and the only one who seems like “star” is even in his potential range of outcomes is Polk, who had 1,159 yards and 9 touchdowns last year at Washington (albeit after 1,072 yards in three years before that). There’s something to be said for quantity (just look at last year’s Packers), but it’s like how modern baseball has moved away from small ball and stringing together singles in favor of the long ball — with singles, you have to get it right several times in a row, but with home runs, you only have to nail it once. You can succeed if you figure out all your second- and third-tier wide receivers, but man, if you start with a CeeDee Lamb or a Justin Jefferson, the rest is that much easier.

Our FTN Fantasy projections don’t have any Patriots receiver (any Patriot at any position, in fact) slated for even 82 targets, with Douglas (81.6) and Polk (81.4) leading the way. No one projects for even 650 yards or 4 touchdowns. In other words, there’s no fantasy factor here. The drafting community agrees, with Polk at WR67 the highest-drafted receiver. And if I am dumpster diving for a New England receiver, that’s the one I’m aiming for, because of what I said in the last paragraph. Douglas has a higher floor. Bourne might as well, if healthy. But if you told me there was some receiver in New England who managed a top-25 fantasy season in 2024, I’m putting every dollar on Polk. That late in the draft, that’s a shot worth taking, even if the odds are way against him.

Cut to the Chase — Do We Care About Any Patriots?

Rhamondre Stevenson is fine, a flex player. Antonio Gibson will probably catch a reasonable share of passes, enough that he’ll be a bye-week option, but never exciting. The best wide receiver is just about anonymous. The quarterback is either going to be a veteran retread known for holding the fort until something better comes along or a rookie who isn’t considered ready, and in the worst case they’ll split time so we can’t even capitalize on either one. And the tight end is entering his ninth year and still hasn’t even had 700 yards in a season.

FOXBOROUGH, MA - SEPTEMBER 17: New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) checks with the line judge during a game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on September 17, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire) — FOXBOROUGH, MA – SEPTEMBER 17: New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) checks with the line judge during a game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on September 17, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

So the short answer to the question is “Uh, not really.” But the longer answer is “maybe”! Hunter Henry is the TE18 in drafts right now, and there’s a real chance he climbs to the back end of the TE1s. There has already been buzz about his connection with Jacoby Brissett. Brissett was fourth in the league in 2022 (he barely played in 2023) in targeting tight ends, throwing to the position 25.7% of the time. The only wide receiver taller than 6-foot-1 on the Patriots roster is Tyquan Thornton who is shaped like a particularly tall letter I and is there for his speed, not his end zone presence. Meanwhile, Henry is 6-5 and fourth in touchdown receptions at the tight end position over the last five years with 26, behind Travis Kelce’s 42, Mark Andrews’ 37 and George Kittle’s 30. He’s the only red zone threat in New England, he tied for fifth among tight ends last year with 5 touchdowns on balls in the red zone, and now Mike Gesicki (who commanded nearly half of the team’s TE red zone targets) is gone, replaced by whatever remains of Austin Hooper (his yards per route run and PFF receiving grade dropped to career lows last year and he scored 0 touchdowns). Am I targeting Hunter Henry in drafts? No. Are my ears perked that he could catch something like 10 touchdowns in 2024 and sneak his way into the back of the TE1 ranks? Yep.