NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
After one of the most tumultuous offseasons on record, baseball is back, and at FTN Bets we are previewing the 2022 season. We’ll walk you through the entire league, division by division and team by team, filling you in on anything you might have missed over the winter.
We have our best bet for each club, and even mention the effects of a couple humidors. Grab some peanuts and crackerjacks and let’s cash some futures. Below, check out the American League. Click here for the National League.
(All win total over/unders come from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
2021 results:
- Record: 52-110 (Fifth)
- ATS: 70-92
- Over/Under: 79-77-6
Park Factor: 102
Key Additions: Jordan Lyles
Key Departures: Cole Sulser
Vegas Win Total: 62.5
FTN Best Bet: John Means under 10.5 wins, -105 (BetMGM)
FTN’s Take: It will be another long season of suffering for Orioles fans. They’ll certainly finish last in the AL East once again. Fans can look forward to Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez making it to the show once the front office is done manipulating their service time. It’s important to note the Orioles moved the left-field fence way back — Camden Yards should go from a hitters paradise to more of a neutral stadium.
Boston Red Sox
2021 results:
- Record: 92-70 (Second, Lost in ALCS)
- ATS: 91-82
- Over/Under: 82-87-4
Park Factor: 105
Key Additions: Trevor Story, Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Matt Strahm
Key Departures: Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Schwarber
Vegas Win Total: 85.5
FTN Best Bet: Nathan Eovaldi Over 11.5 Wins (BetMGM)
FTN’s Take: The Red Sox improved their pitching staff with a handful of free agent signings. Their biggest move was going out and getting Trevor Story. Story should be a middle-of-the-order bat, but more importantly, he should improve the worst defensive infield in the majors. We’d have a more positive outlook on this club if they weren’t playing in the toughest division in baseball; it’s difficult to envision them finishing higher than third or fourth in the AL East.
New York Yankees
2021 results:
- Record: 92-70 (Third, Lost in AL Wild Card Game)
- ATS: 76-87
- Over/Under: 69-89-5
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Key Departures: Luke Voit, Gary Sánchez
Vegas Win Total: 91.5
FTN Best Bet: Giancarlo Stanton most regular season home runs, +2800 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: It was a tough offseason for Yankees fans, as they expected the Steinbrenners and the team to be bigger players in the free agent market. A healthy Donaldson should provide their offense with another legitimate bopper in the middle-of the lineup. The Yankees will be counting on the return of Luis Severino to add another top-end arm to their rotation. We’ll see if Nestor Cortes Jr. is able to take another step forward for the Yankees and solidify the rest of their rotation. They’ll be fighting with the Red Sox for third place in the AL East. This team simply isn’t as talented as Toronto or Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay Rays
2021 results:
- 100-62 (First, Lost in ALDS)
- ATS: 98-68
- Over/Under: 86-72-8
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Corey Kluber
Key Departures: Nelson Cruz, Collin McHugh, Michael Wacha, Austin Meadows
Vegas Win Total: 89.5
FTN Best Bet: Shane McClanahan Cy Young, +2500 (Caesars)
FTN’s Take: The defending 2021 AL East champions should be carried by their uber-talented young arms once again. Even with Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz missing time with injuries, the Rays system is simply stacked with electric arms that will certainly make an impact this season. It’s going to be a treat to watch Wander Franco over 162 games. We’re counting on them to hold off the Blue Jays and repeat as AL East champs.
Toronto Blue Jays
2021 results:
- Record: 91-71 (Fourth)
- ATS: 86-76
- Over/Under: 69-84-9
Park Factor: 99
Key Additions: Kevin Gausman, Matt Chapman, Yusei Kikuchi
Key Departures: Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien
Vegas Win Total: 92.5
FTN Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. MVP, +550 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Blue Jays are the most improved team in the toughest division in baseball and are certainly viewed as the offseason champs. They signed Kevin Gausman from the Giants to help lead their rotation. Toronto swung a trade for 3B Matt Chapman, who was able to have a normal offseason after hip surgery two years ago. We’re expecting Chapman to have a bounceback year at the plate and fit in nicely with this stacked Blue Jays lineup. It’s safe to say this lineup is one of the deepest in baseball, led by 2021 MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The biggest question mark is the Blue Jays bullpen.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
2021 results:
- Record: 93-69 (First, Lost in ALDS)
- ATS: 82-84
- Over/Under: 73-83-10
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Kendall Graveman, AJ Pollock
Key Departures: Carlos Rodón, Craig Kimbrel
Vegas Win Total: 91.5
FTN Best Bet: Dylan Cease MLB Strikeout Leader, +1500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The White Sox will need Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech to take a step forward this season if they’d like to repeat as AL Central champs. We’ll see if the South Siders end up regretting not giving Carlos Rodón a qualifying offer. Luckily, they have one of the best offenses in the league. Chicago’s righty-heavy offense should continue to rake against lefties.
Cleveland Guardians
2021 results:
- Record: 80-82 (Second)
- ATS: 88-74
- Over/Under: 85-72-5
Park Factor: 102
Key Additions: Literally nobody
Key Departures: None
Vegas Win Total: 76.5
FTN Best Bet: Shane Bieber Cy Young, +800 (BetMGM)
FTN’s Take: The Guardians only spent what money they could find in the couch cushions on free agents over the winter. The rotation will certainly carry the club. Their offense will have trouble scoring runs, and that’s with superstar José Ramírez in the lineup (and he has been mentioned in trade rumors all winter). We’re expecting this club to finish behind the Royals in the Central. Don’t forget: Progressive Field will see a bump in offense with the installation of a humidor.
Detroit Tigers
2021 results:
- Record: 77-85 (Third)
- ATS: 95-67
- Over/Under: 68-88-6
Park Factor: 98
Key Additions: Eduardo Rodríguez, Javier Báez, Austin Meadows
Key Departures: None
Vegas Win Total: 77.5
FTN Best Bet: Over 77.5 Wins, -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Tigers have certainly improved after spending $235M on free agents in the offseason. Eduardo Rodríguez joins a young talented rotation that will certainly be better than they were last season. Detroit lit up left-handed pitching last season and their offense should improve with top hitting prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene (once he’s healthy) joining the club. This will be one of the more exciting teams to watch in 2022.
Kansas City Royals
2021 results:
- Record 74-88 (Fourth)
- ATS: 81-81
- Over/Under: 68-82-12
Park Factor: 97
Key Additions: Zack Greinke, Amir Garrett
Key Departures: None
Vegas Win Total: 74.5
FTN Best Bet: Adalberto Mondesi most regular season stolen bases, +250 (BetMGM)
FTN’s Take: This young Royals team will certainly be fun to watch in 2022. They’ll feature a deep lineup with 2019 No. 2 overall pick Bobby Witt Jr. making the club. The real question is whether the Royals will have enough pitching talent to push the club over .500.
Minnesota Twins
2021 results:
- Record: 73-89 (Fifth)
- ATS: 66-96
- Over/Under: 86-67-9
Park Factor: 97
Key Additions: Sonny Gray, Carlos Correa, Gary Sánchez, Gio Urshela
Key Departures: Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda
Vegas Win Total: 81.5
FTN Best Bet: Byron Buxton to win MVP, +3300 (SugarHouse)
FTN’s Take: The Twins made some solid moves in the offseason. Their young starting pitchers will have to take a step forward for them to challenge the White Sox in the Central. Minnesota’s offense should improve with the addition of Correa and (hopefully) Buxton staying healthy. We know their bullpen will certainly be a strength.
AL West
Houston Astros
2021 results:
- Record: 95-67 (First, Lost in World Series)
- ATS: 86-92
- Over/Under: 95-75-8
Park Factor: 105
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Carlos Correa, Zack Greinke
Vegas Win Total: 91.5
FTN Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez most regular season home runs, +2200 (Caesars)
FTN’s Take: The Astros are once again the favorites to bring home the AL West crown. However, they’ll have some more competition in the division this year, with both the Mariners and Angels improving their teams over the offseason. This offense will produce even with the loss of Carlos Correa to the Twins. They might not be household names yet, but Framber Valdez, José Urquidy and Luis García are talented arms that can keep the Astros among the elite teams in the American league.
Los Angeles Angels
2021 results:
- Record: 77-85 (Fourth)
- ATS: 74-88
- Over/Under: 87-72-3
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Noah Syndergaard
Key Departures: Alex Cobb
Vegas Win Total: 83.5
FTN Best Bet: Over 83.5 Wins, -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The return of an injured Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon should make the Angels offense one of the best in the league, along with MVP Shohei Ohtani at the top of the order. The Angels added a potential ace in Noah Syndergaard who would give the pitching staff a big boost if he’s able to make 25-plus starts. Los Angeles will certainly hit — we’ll just have to see how far their arms are able to take them.
Oakland Athletics
2021 results:
- Record: 86-76 (Third)
- ATS: 85-77
- Over/Under: 74-83-5
Park Factor: 94
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Starling Marte
Vegas Win Total: 68.5
FTN Best Bet: Under 68.5 Wins, -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: We’ve seen a fire sale in Oakland over the last month or so. The Guardians were cheap this offseason; the A’s were downright Scroogelike in their (lack of) spending. It shouldn’t be long until Frankie Montas is dealt. Oakland will have to depend on their extraordinary player development to avoid being one of the worst teams in the league. Don’t forget: The addition of the humidor should increase offense at the Coliseum.
Seattle Mariners
2021 results:
- Record: 90-72 (Second)
- ATS: 92-70
- Over/Under: 83-75-4
Park Factor: 97
Key Additions: Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suárez, Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker
Key Departures: James Paxton, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson
Vegas Win Total: 83.5
FTN Best Bet: Julio Rodríguez to win Rookie of the Year, +450 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Mariners shocked the baseball world by winning 90 games last season. They spent the offseason adding a bunch of talent to their lineup and the 2021 AL Cy Young winner to their rotation. They feature a handful of exciting rookies, including the electric Julio Rodríguez. Another one of their top prospects, starting pitcher Matt Brash, made the club out of spring training. Seattle will be an exciting team to watch in 2022, as they make a strong push in the AL West.
Texas Rangers
2021 results:
- Record: 60-102 (Fifth)
- ATS: 74-88
- Over/Under: 78-74-10
Park Factor: 96
Key Additions: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Mitch Garver, Jon Gray
Key Departures: Jordan Lyles, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Vegas Win Total: 74.5
FTN Best Bet: Corey Seager MVP, +4000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Rangers made a couple big splashes in free agency, spending a whopping $580M on free agents, the most in baseball. They’re certainly more talented than they were in 2021, but it’s difficult to see them finishing better than fourth in this much-improved AL West. Texas simply doesn’t have the pitching to be a legitimate contender.
