NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
After one of the most tumultuous offseasons on record, baseball is back, and at FTN Bets we are previewing the 2022 season. We’ll walk you through the entire league, division by division and team by team, filling you in on anything you might have missed over the winter.
We have our best bet for each club, and even mention the effects of a couple humidors. Grab some peanuts and crackerjacks and let’s cash some futures. Below, check out the National League. Click here for the American League.
(All win total over/unders come from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
NL East
Atlanta Braves
2021 results:
- Record: 88-73 (First, Won World Series)
- ATS: 89-88
- Over/Under: 80-87-10
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Kenley Jansen, Alex Dickerson, Collin McHugh, Matt Olson
Key Departures: Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler
Vegas Win Total: 91.5
FTN Best Bet: Max Fried to win Cy Young, +2500 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: Coming off a great playoff run, the World Series champions have a real test on their hands with three legitimate contenders in the NL East. Atlanta has lost two huge power bats in the middle of their lineup, but the Braves were able to replace Freddie Freeman’s move to the Dodgers with rising star Matt Olson. The Braves are still a great team, but the Mets and Phillies are poised to challenge their World Series hangover.
Miami Marlins
2021 results:
- Record: 67-95 (Fourth)
- ATS: 82-79
- Over/Under: 72-80-10
Park Factor: 99
Key Additions: Jorge Soler, Avisaíl García, Jacob Stallings
Key Departures: Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson
Vegas Win Total: 77.5
FTN Best Bet: Sandy Alcantara to win Cy Young, +2500 (Caesars)
FTN’s Take: Despite winning 82 games against the spread last year, the Marlins had yet another disappointing season with 67 wins. They could only go as far as their solid, young pitching could take them. Jacob Stallings’ elite defense and framing should help the pitching staff. Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García should solidify the middle of the lineup. The supporting cast just isn’t quite good enough to get them over the hump, especially in this division.
New York Mets
2021 results:
- Record: 77-85 (Third)
- ATS: 70-92
- Over/Under: 83-75-4
Park Factor: 101
Key Additions: Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha, Adam Ottavino
Key Departures: Jeurys Familia, Marcus Stroman, Javier Báez, Michael Conforto
Vegas Win Total: 88.5
FTN Best Bet: Under 88.5 Wins, -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Mets have a ton of changes coming into this season, mostly upgrades. In true Mets fashion, though, they already might have lost Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer to injury to start the season. They have more depth than most teams, so they should be able to weather the storm. Nonetheless, those two arms will have to be around the majority of the season for any sustained success.
Philadelphia Phillies
2021 results:
- Record: 82-80 (Second)
- ATS: 75-86
- Over/Under: 77-80-5
Park Factor: 104
Key Additions: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Brad Hand, Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia
Key Departures: Héctor Neris, Freddy Galvis, Brad Miller
Vegas Win Total: 86.5
FTN Best Bet: Win NL East, +350 (BetMGM)
FTN’s Take: The Phillies have improved their biggest holes from last season. In recent years, they haven’t been able to overcome their historically terrible bullpen. The additions of Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Corey Knebel should improve last year’s performance. Defense is going to be their biggest struggle, but their hitting and pitching should be able to overcome it.
Washington Nationals
2021 results:
- Record: 65-97 (Fifth)
- ATS: 74-88
- Over/Under: 74-82-6
Park Factor: 101
Key Additions: Nelson Cruz, Aníbal Sánchez, Ehire Adrianza
Key Departures: Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Avila
Vegas Win Total: 71.5
FTN Best Bet: Under 71.5 Wins, -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: Washington made some sideways moves this offseason that likely didn’t make them any better. This will almost certainly be the last seasons for Nelson Cruz and Aníbal Sánchez, while the rest of their division somewhat improved. We would be shocked to see any sort of bump from the 65-win team we saw last year.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
2021 results:
- Record: 71-91 (Fourth)
- ATS: 82-80
- Over/Under: 77-78-7
Park Factor: 99
Key Additions: Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, Yan Gomes
Key Departures: Robinson Chirinos, Zach Davies, Matt Duffy
Vegas Win Total: 75.5
FTN Best Bet: Seiya Suzuki over 24.5 home runs, -110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Cubs are rebuilding. We shouldn’t expect much, but they did improve from last season with the additions of Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki and a number of other role players. We should consider this version one of their rebuild. It is safe to assume they’ll get above their 71-win season from last year. However, the depth is so thin that an injury or two could derail their somewhat average team.
Cincinnati Reds
2021 results:
- Record: 83-79 (Third)
- ATS: 72-90
- Over/Under: 81-73-8
Park Factor: 106
Key Additions: Tommy Pham, Brandon Drury, Colin Moran, Mike Minor
Key Departures: Amir Garrett, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suárez, Jesse Winker, Sonny Gray
Vegas Win Total: 74.5
FTN Best Bet: Over 74.5 Wins, -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Reds have made it clear they are also entering a rebuild phase. They sold as high as they could have on Nick Castellanos, Sonny Gray, Eugenio Suárez, Jesse Winker and others. There may be more trades to come, but they currently sit at just 74 wins in a horrendous division. The Reds have a decent top-end rotation with Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Vladimir Gutierrez and former second overall pick Hunter Greene. Their current starting lineup has seven players projected to hit at an above-average rate.
Milwaukee Brewers
2021 results:
- Record: 95-67 (First, Lost in NLDS)
- ATS: 88-78
- Over/Under: 76-19-10
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Renfroe
Key Departures: Avisaíl García
Vegas Win Total: 89.5
FTN Best Bet: Win Central Division, -165, and Over 89.5 Wins, -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Brewers are the best team in the worst division in baseball. They’ll rely on a bunch of unreliable hitters like Kolten Wong, Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe, but they won’t have to be particularly good for the Brewers to win games. The Brewers arguably have the best starting trio and best reliever duo in the entire league. They should have little issues mowing down the lineups throughout this division.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 results:
- Record: 61-101 (Fifth)
- ATS: 77-85
- Over/Under: 77-76-9
Park Factor: 100
Key Additions: Daniel Vogelbach, José Quintana, Roberto Pérez
Key Departures: Colin Moran, Jacob Stallings
Vegas Win Total: 65.5
FTN Best Bet: Under 65.5 Wins, -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Pirates have interesting, surprisingly good players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar and Chris Stratton. Four players can only get you so far in the majors, though, especially when they’re already listening on Bryan Reynolds trade options. Any of these guys who play well — other than Hayes, who has been discussing an extension — will likely be moved before the season ends. Sure, the division stinks, but they are a huge step down from the next-best team.
St. Louis Cardinals
2021 results:
- Record: 90-72 (Second, Lost in NL Wild Card Game)
- ATS: 85-78
- Over/Under: 74-81-8
Park Factor: 94
Key Additions: Corey Dickerson, Steven Matz
Key Departures: Kwang Hyun Kim, Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martínez
Vegas Win Total: 84.5
FTN Best Bet: Paul Goldschmidt over 158.5 hits, -110 (BetMGM)
FTN’s Take: The Cardinals continue with their annual devil magic after amassing 90 wins last season. Losing Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martínez won’t hurt them considering their recent struggles, while Corey Dickerson and Steven Matz improve their depth. They’ll need the pitching, which projects to be a struggle at best, to show up to reach the playoffs this season.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 results:
- Record: 52-110 (Fifth)
- ATS: 80-82
- Over/Under: 89-66-7
Park Factor: 102
Key Additions: Mark Melancon, Zach Davies
Key Departures: Kole Calhoun, Tyler Clippard
Vegas Win Total: 67.5
FTN Best Bet: Under 67.5 Wins, -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: Arizona won just 52 games last season. We could argue they got worse considering Madison Bumgarner, their ace, got a year older, and they only added Zach Davies to the rotation. Ketel Marte is the only clear above-average hitter on the team. The bullpen is backed by two 37-year-olds. A 15-win improvement in this division? That’s hard to believe.
Colorado Rockies
2021 results:
- Record: 74-87 (Fourth)
- ATS: 85-76
- Over/Under: 68-87-5
Park Factor: 111
Key Additions: Kris Bryant, Alex Colomé, José Iglesias, Randal Grichuk, Chad Kuhl
Key Departures: Jon Gray, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia
Vegas Win Total: 68.5
FTN Best Bet: Kris Bryant Under 30.5 HR. -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: There’s no real surprise here. The Rockies got worse despite adding Kris Bryant to their lineup. Bryant rebounded last season after a horrendous 2020 campaign, but there’s little reason to pitch to him all season considering the rest of the lineup. Germán Márquez and Austin Gomber are fun arms to watch, although they’ll likely never get enough credit for their home park. The rest of the rotation, including new addition Chad Kuhl, should struggle throughout the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 results:
- Record: 106-56 (Second, Lost in NLCS)
- ATS: 87-87
- Over/Under: 77-87-10
Park Factor: 99
Key Additions: Tyler Anderson, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel
Key Departures: Kenley Jansen, Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
Vegas Win Total: 98.5
FTN Best Bet: Julio Urías to win Cy Young, +3500 (PointsBet)
FTN’s Take: It’s difficult for any team to improve on 106 wins. I wouldn’t put it past the Dodgers, but there’s more question marks on this team than any of the other World Series contenders. Can Clayton Kershaw stay on the field? How does the back end of the rotation round out? Is the bullpen too old? Will Cody Bellinger continue to struggle at the plate? This is the best lineup in baseball with or without Bellinger, but there’s still some needed answers along the way.
San Diego Padres
2021 results:
- Record: 79-83 (Third)
- ATS: 75-87
- Over/Under: 86-72-10
Park Factor: 96
Key Additions: Sean Manaea, Luke Voit
Key Departures: Tommy Pham, Daniel Hudson, Adam Frazier
Vegas Win Total: 89.5
FTN Best Bet: CJ Abrams to win Rookie of the Year, +900 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Padres crashed out of the playoff hunt last year after the trade deadline. A combination of injuries, trades that didn’t work out and poor play lead them to just 79 wins. MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. will start the year on the IL. The rotation will need bouncebacks from Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, while the recent Sean Manaea trade should offer a nice upgrade. Much like the Dodgers, there are a lot of question marks for San Diego despite their elite status.
San Francisco Giants
2021 results:
- Record: 107-55 (First, Lost in NLDS)
- ATS: 100-67
- Over/Under: 76-86-5
Park Factor: 96
Key Additions: Matthew Boyd, Joc Pederson, Carlos Rodón, Alex Cobb
Key Departures: Alex Dickerson, Kris Bryant, Kevin Gausman
Vegas Win Total: 86.5
FTN Best Bet: Over 86.5 Wins, -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
FTN’s Take: The Giants shocked the entire league with 107 wins last year. They had the perfect match of a front office, manager and players willing to embrace a new analytical movement. They had notable losses with Kris Bryant and Kevin Gausman moving to free agency, but they were more than able to make up for them. Both Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb were underrated last year, while Carlos Rodón shocked the league. Their lineup is full of 30-somethings with injury concerns, but the pitching and their new approach should be enough to lock in a playoff spot.
