First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Jayden Daniels had the finest single game of the Divisional Round in Washington’s upset of Detroit on Saturday night. He is the top quarterback. Behind him are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who come in close to tied in DYAR after opponent adjustments even though Jackson had twice as many passing yards as Allen.
The big shocker is that Saquon Barkley is not the top running back of the week by DYAR for his 205-yard rushing performance against the Rams. In fact, he’s not even one of the top three running backs of the week. I was preparing to run a list of the best rushing performances in DYAR history but Barkley doesn’t even come close.
The main reason for this is that so much of his value is tied to just two runs, the 62-yard and 78-yard touchdowns, and the extra yards on those runs have smaller marginal gains when you get to the extra length. On the other hand, Barkley had only 1 yard or less on 10 different runs, including a 1-yard gain on third-and-goal from the 2 and a 2-yard loss on third-and-4. There’s also an opponent adjustment, as the Rams had a below-average run defense during the regular season.
Compare this game to something similar such as Freeman McNeil of the Jets running for 202 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries in the 1982 Wild-Card Round. That was worth 100 DYAR against an average Cincinnati Bengals run defense. McNeil had only three carries that gained a yard or less. While he didn’t have any carries as long as Barkley, he had seven different runs that gained at least 10 yards, while Barkley only had the two. McNeil’s only attempt on a third down was a 20-yard touchdown on third-and-4.
This is not to belittle Barkley’s accomplishments, but often the only difference between a 76-yard touchdown and a 56-yard touchdown is that one starts at the 24-yard line and the other starts at the 44-yard line. Once you’re in the open field, it’s goodbye.
The best rushing performance in the playoffs is the same game that has the most actual rushing yardage, Eric Dickerson with 248 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries against an excellent Dallas run defense in the 1985 Divisional Round.
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