First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
One of the easiest ways to tear down or prop up a quarterback is to point to the surrounding talent or system and call them a <blank> merchant. Of course, Quarterback on Our Rival is doing great – they’re throwing to a receiver with no one within five yards of them! System Coordinator We Hope Coaches Our Team Next Year gets receivers so open, a trained monkey could run the system? Quarterback on My Team, meanwhile, is constructing an offense from a box of scraps, and should have his numbers adjusted accordingly. Throw out Overpromoted Playcaller, and his numbers would be just as good as anyone else’s numbers!
Well, never let it be said that we won’t use our numbers to help stoke fights and arguments. The FTN StatsHub allows us to split our numbers by charting stat, so we can see who is generating tons of DYAR throwing solely to open receivers, and who is making apples out of applesauce. Let’s start with some raw numbers, and then see if we can’t shape them into some sort of context.
Here’s a list of every qualified quarterback with their stats throwing to receivers we have marked as open. OS% is percentage of throws targeted at receivers charted as open, while WO% is throws to wide-open receivers. The open% rank combines the two, ranking the quarterbacks in terms of how often they’re targeting players with more than one step of separation between them and the closest defender. Open DYAR and DVOA is their passing DYAR on such throws, while covered DYAR and DVOA is the combined total for targets charted as “one-step” or “tight” separation. (Total DYAR is a lot higher here because it doesn’t include sacks or passes thrown away with no intended receiver.)
| Player | Team | OS% | WO% | Open% Rank | Open DYAR | Open DVOA | Covered DYAR |
| Jared Goff | DET | 39.4% | 14.4% | 4 | 2074 | 111.3% | -42 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 44.3% | 5.9% | 9 | 1846 | 85.3% | 224 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 36.8% | 20.1% | 2 | 1701 | 103.2% | 428 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 42.5% | 13.8% | 3 | 1600 | 66.3% | -325 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | 42.7% | 9.5% | 6 | 1534 | 78.6% | -86 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 41.0% | 7.9% | 12 | 1533 | 90.3% | -251 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 36.2% | 11.1% | 15 | 1516 | 89.4% | 52 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | 32.5% | 9.3% | 28 | 1460 | 109.2% | 334 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 43.4% | 9.4% | 5 | 1451 | 81.6% | -3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 40.2% | 8.4% | 13 | 1321 | 71.4% | -73 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | 39.6% | 10.2% | 10 | 1307 | 91.2% | 115 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 39.6% | 10.0% | 11 | 1301 | 83.6% | -163 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 42.8% | 8.5% | 7 | 1249 | 69.1% | -494 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 47.1% | 12.0% | 1 | 1244 | 71.5% | -148 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 35.3% | 8.5% | 22 | 1236 | 70.7% | -113 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 34.8% | 7.4% | 27 | 1219 | 97.9% | 70 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | 32.2% | 11.7% | 21 | 1217 | 90.2% | -49 |
| Player | Team | OS% | WO% | Open% Rank | Open DYAR | Open DVOA | Covered DYAR |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 27.5% | 15.2% | 25 | 1180 | 74.4% | -20 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 32.3% | 14.2% | 17 | 1128 | 65.9% | -329 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 35.8% | 11.0% | 16 | 1017 | 84.6% | 119 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 39.6% | 6.1% | 19 | 957 | 79.0% | 248 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | 34.8% | 8.8% | 23 | 823 | 88.7% | -489 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 33.6% | 8.0% | 30 | 815 | 96.4% | -229 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | 30.2% | 13.1% | 24 | 772 | 95.1% | 108 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 41.9% | 8.5% | 8 | 732 | 66.4% | -99 |
| Derek Carr | NO | 38.0% | 10.0% | 14 | 649 | 65.3% | 101 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 34.6% | 7.6% | 26 | 631 | 60.4% | -37 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 28.5% | 10.8% | 32 | 622 | 67.8% | -34 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | 37.5% | 7.7% | 20 | 550 | 86.1% | -254 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | 28.0% | 9.8% | 33 | 521 | 75.1% | -395 |
| Will Levis | TEN | 32.7% | 6.7% | 31 | 519 | 66.6% | -353 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | 33.7% | 12.7% | 18 | 483 | 42.0% | 1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 26.1% | 6.5% | 35 | 482 | 62.3% | -212 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | 37.1% | 4.6% | 29 | 462 | 48.9% | -85 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 18.5% | 14.8% | 34 | 99 | 13.2% | -27 |
Quarterbacks are better when throwing to receivers who are not covered – this is the sort of in-depth analysis you’ve come to expect from the experts at FTN.
Jared Goff sitting at the top is not going to quiet those who think of him as a system quarterback, though the fact that Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are also near the top of the list would at least indicate that finding the open guy shouldn’t be a knock on your performance. It’s not just a factor of this being a counting stat, either. Goff is first with an 111.3% DVOA targeting open receivers. That always seems to be the book on Goff, doesn’t it? Goff is great when receivers are open, or when he’s not pressured, or when using play action or other tricks. Goff’s numbers always jump out in perfect situations, and then come tumbling back to Earth when things aren’t working well. He has the fifth-largest dropoff between his open DVOA and his covered DVOA, and the four players ahead of him either are backups forced into action (Jameis Winston and Mac Jones) or are struggling quarterbacks who have missed chunks of the year (Dak Prescott and Anthony Richardson).
Of all the good quarterbacks – and to be clear, we’re including Goff as a good quarterback, with one of the best claims to the elusive “fifth-best passer in the league” spot that no one can agree on – Goff is the one who needs things to go right in order to go off the most. And kudos to Ben Johnson and the Lions for providing him that framework – they’ve created a scheme where Goff can stand in the pocket and go through his progressions, and he’s rewarded them with a top-10 passing offense. And it should be noted that he still has an above-average DVOA when throwing into tighter coverages, but it’s just not exactly his style. He only has 10 turnover-worthy throws in tight coverage this year – that’s 4.9% of his throws, again a better-than-average number. Goff’s making smart decisions and the Lions don’t ask him to try to throw the ball into pinpoint coverage, and the result has been a really good year. It just is something that separates him from the best of the best: that lack of creation when things go poorly. It’s also why everyone with a question mark on offense is trying to bring Johnson in to run their team. If he can make Jared Goff look like a worldbeater, think what he could do for you?
The bottom of the open DYAR rankings are, again, mostly backups and bad passers. There are a couple names that jump out, however – Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence. Both are in the top 10 in open percentage, so targets are there. And yet both are in the bottom 10 in DVOA targeting open receivers, which has to be worrisome.
Some of Mahomes’ poor performance comes from route selection. A league-high 135 of his 306 open targets were on screens and quick outs, and even wide-open screens aren’t great plays. Mahomes has an DVOA of 47.4% on wide-open screens and quick outs, and 82.2% on other wide-open targets … but that still places him in the bottom five when you remove those routes from all passers! There’s no doubting this has been an off year from Mahomes, but I think what we’re seeing there to some degree is a lack of trust in receivers. There are a lot of manufactured short catches because of a lack of anyone who can go out and win a route one-on-one. Yet this is the second year in a row Mahomes has had some questionable numbers, and we’d like to see a quarterback of his pedigree put up bigger stats regardless of who is being trotted out there. Mahomes has probably lost his status as undisputed best quarterback in football this year, and while he’s still one of the Big Four, he may only be one of that quartet until he once again has a Mahomesian season.
Lawrence, on the other hand, is running out of chances. His chances of being the generational player he was touted as when he was a prospect have long since vanished, and now he’s just trying to prove he belongs as a starting quarterback – and frankly, it’s borderline. A worse DVOA than Will Levis when targeting open receivers isn’t going to cut it. Lawrence has the second-lowest completion rate targeting open receivers, just behind Anthony Richardson, and just 77.9% of his air yards towards open targets are catchable. Not every pass to an open receiver needs to be on target, but Lawrence’s aDOT is sandwiched right between Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert, both of whom have about 85% of their air yards catchable. Sam Darnold has 94% of his air yards charted as catchable, and he airs the ball out towards open targets more than anyone not named Anthony Richardson or Jameis Winston. Lawrence’s accuracy issues are simply not acceptable, and they’ve been going on long enough that he’s running out of excuses. Lawrence needs to find a way to get on the same page as his receivers, and fast, or that $55 million APY contract is going to be an albatross around the Jaguars’ neck.
Darnold deserves some more flowers here, too, because he’s not just succeeding with open receivers. Darnold is one of five players in the top 10 in DVOA to both open and covered receivers, joining Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Jayden Daniels and Russell Wilson. It certainly helps that some of those open and covered receivers are frequently Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but the Darnold we saw in New York and Carolina wasn’t able to target players like this. Darnold has earned himself a hefty pay raise for 2025, and while I’d still be hesitant about giving him any sort of long-term deal considering his history, something in Kirk Cousins’ price range (around $45 million APY) sounds far less insane than it would have at this point last season. Darnold, Wilson and Purdy will all likely see significant pay boosts next season – it’s been a significant bounce-back season for Russ and a confirmation year for Purdy – while Daniels already looks like he’s the real thing. Being able to both take advantage of open receivers when you have them and make something happen when you don’t is about all you can ask out of a quarterback.
And then there’s Lamar Jackson. Darnold, Purdy, Daniels and Wilson are all hovering around a 0.0% DVOA targeting covered receivers, which is impressive enough. Jackson is up to 31.1%, leading the league in DYAR despite ranking 34th in targets to covered wideouts. These aren’t quite unheard of numbers – C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy were both between 25% and 30% last season – but it is the highest DVOA we’ve seen for a qualified passer since we’ve started using FTN’s charting. Jackson’s ability to make something happen when plays go bad is what puts him above the other MVP candidates this year, and this is just one example of it – Josh Allen’s -11.4% when targeting covered receivers isn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but Jackson is in another stratosphere. We’re mostly talking very tight coverage here, too, as opposed to a full step of separation. Jackson is the only quarterback in the league this year with positive DVOA against tight coverage. Jackson also only has six turnover-worthy throws to covered receivers, and his 3.7% turnover-worthy percentage is fifth-best among qualified receivers. No matter what stat you look out, Jackson comes out amazing, and this is just another feather in the cap of his MVP argument.
Though, if you are a Josh Allen supporter, we do have one more number here for you to use. Allen has 17 highlight-worthy throws to covered receivers – passes that require a high level of accuracy, usually into a tight window, that maximize the result of a play. No one else has more than 15, and Jackson only has seven. Allen’s 8.1% highlight throw rate to covered receivers is also first by a large margin, and well ahead of Jackson’s 4.3%. Jackson may be the frontrunner in our stats, but surely, it won’t be another 49-1 blowout for MVP … right?
