NHL Best Bets for Thursday (1/9)
Kenneth Le
This is my fifth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro Team and the end-of-season awards. Each year, after the All-Pro team is officially announced, I write an article listing who I voted for at each position and giving some reasoning where appropriate. All of my choices were based on play through Week 17 and all stats below are through Week 17 unless otherwise noted.
You can find the full list of winners announced here.
OFFENSE
Quarterback: 1) Lamar Jackson, BAL; 2) Josh Allen, BUF
Last year, I wrote a huge piece about why I picked Josh Allen (and Dak Prescott) over Lamar Jackson for my All-Pro Team. The runaway freight train narrative said that Jackson was the obvious MVP, but the stats all pointed to Allen having a more efficient season. This year, things are different. The advanced stats do not clearly point to one of these two quarterbacks over the other one, and the runaway freight train narrative that had Allen as the MVP slowed down in the last couple weeks of the season as Allen had a couple of less impressive games (and then sat Week 18) while Jackson had some big performances on national television.
Let’s compare Jackson and Allen using a series of stats. I believe that everything here except for pass DVOA incorporates rushing value.
- ESPN QBR: Lamar Jackson 78.0 (1) and Josh Allen 76.7 (3).
- EPA per play: Josh Allen .321 (1) and Lamar Jackson .304 (3).
- Kevin Cole’s adjusted EPA per play: Lamar Jackson .247 (1) and Josh Allen .241 (2).
- Ben Baldwin’s adjusted EPA per play (including Week 18): Josh Allen .23 (3) and Lamar Jackson .19 (5).
- DAKOTA (EPA and CPOE composite): Lamar Jackson .192 (1) and Josh Allen .171 (4).
- SIS Total Points: Lamar Jackson 148 (2) and Josh Allen 136 (3).
- PFF Grade: Lamar Jackson 93.7 (1) and Josh Allen 91.9 (3).
- Pass DVOA: Lamar Jackson 51.2% (1) and Josh Allen 27.0% (3).
- Adjusted DYAR with extra value for rushing: Lamar Jackson 2,126 (1) and Josh Allen 1,618 (2).
Note that both Kevin Cole and Ben Baldwin base their EPA adjustments on data from the FTN StatsHub.
So you have a case where most of the advanced stats pretty much have a tie between these two players. The exception? My stats. My stats have Jackson way ahead of Allen. Jackson had one of the top 10 seasons by a quarterback in DVOA history. The Ravens had one of the best offenses in DVOA history. Certainly, this isn’t a situation where I’m picking stats over “the eye test,” because Jackson was just as impressive this year as he was last year. If my stats said one thing and all the other advanced stats said something else, I would definitely consider the idea that perhaps I was missing something with DVOA. That’s not the case this year. I’ll let DVOA and DYAR break the tie here.
Running Back: 1) Derrick Henry, BAL; 2) Saquon Barkley, PHI
Derrick Henry led the league in rushing DYAR, at least through Week 17. Yes, Saquon Barkley had more rushing yards. I’ve harped on this all year, but perhaps this is the first time you’re reading something from me this season. Barkley had a very easy schedule this season. Henry had a hard schedule this season. That’s a big difference between the two of them.
Derrick Henry faced a top 10 run defense by DVOA in six different games. He faced a team in the top half of run defense DVOA in 11 different games, because Pittsburgh was 13th and Cleveland was 15th. Henry only faced a team in the bottom 10 in four games: Washington, Dallas, and Cincinnati twice.
Saquon Barkley faced a top 10 run defense by DVOA only three times: Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay. He faced a team in the top half of run defense DVOA six times, because he only faced the New York Giants once. However, he faced a team in the bottom 10 of run defense DVOA in nine different games: Carolina, New Orleans, Dallas twice, Cincinnati, Washington twice, Jacksonville, and Atlanta.
When we add in Week 18, Derrick Henry had the best rushing DYAR season of the entire 21st century, surpassing the best Priest Holmes seasons and Jonathan Taylor from a couple years ago. NFL Next Gen Stats put him ahead of Barkley in Rushing Yards Over Expected as well. That makes him this year’s best running back, as far as I’m concerned. Although Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson also had more rushing DYAR than Barkley through Week 17, I did feel that breaking 2,000 yards was enough for me to put Barkley ahead of those guys and into my second spot.
Fullback: 1) Patrick Ricard, BAL; 2) Alec Ingold, MIA
I had Scott Spratt run me some on-off splits for rushing EPA/play with fullbacks. I know on-off splits aren’t the most trustworthy thing in the world, but how else are you supposed to judge fullbacks? Anyway, Ricard was very clearly No. 1 among the five fullbacks with the most snaps. Ingold was No. 2 and also had more receiving value this year than Kyle Juszczyk based on Route DYAR.
Yes, this means I picked Baltimore Ravens for the first three spots on my All-Pro offense. This was one of the best offenses ever according to DVOA so I don’t think that’s a ridiculous idea, and this does it for Baltimore Ravens on my All-Pro offense anyway. We’ll see Baltimore again when we get to the end of the defense.
Wide Receiver: 1) Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, Justin Jefferson, MIN, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET; 2) A.J. Brown, PHI, Mike Evans, TB, and Puka Nacua, LAR
For the first team, I picked the top three wide receivers in Route DYAR. Hard to argue with those guys. Nacua is an interesting pick because he missed several games, but he was first in Route DVOA and first among wide receivers in SIS Total Points. A.J. Brown was fifth in Route DYAR and led the ESPN receiver tracking metrics again. I went with Evans over Drake London, who had more Route DYAR but wasn’t as efficient on a per-route basis.
Tight End: 1) George Kittle, SF; 2) Brock Bowers, LV
Kittle, of course, challenged the all-time record for receiving DYAR by a tight end. Bowers didn’t do so well in regular ol’ receiving DYAR but finished third in Route DYAR. I picked him over Trey McBride because Bowers had to carry so much of the load in that Las Vegas offense. I switched that vote back and forth like 10 times before settling on Bowers.
For the offensive line, I started with the players mentioned by Brandon Thorn and Duke Merriweather on their All-Pro Team podcast, then moved guys around a little bit based on stats such as ESPN pass block win rate and FTN Data pressures allowed.
Left Tackle: 1) Tristan Wirfs, TB; 2) Dion Dawkins, BUF
Thorn and Merriweather liked Rashawn Slater of the Chargers as the No. 2 left tackle but Dion Dawkins was better in the ESPN blocking stats and Mitchell Schwartz picked him as his top offensive lineman of the year.
Left Guard: 1) Joe Thuney, KC; 2) Landon Dickerson, PHI
Center: 1) Creed Humphrey, KC: 2) Frank Ragnow, DET
At center, I considered giving one of my spots to Hjalte Froholdt of the Arizona Cardinals, who was surprisingly the top center in the league by SIS Total Points. They had him as the best run-blocking center and seventh overall in blown block rate. But the FTN charting of blown blocks and pressures allowed didn’t have him quite that strong, and he wasn’t near the top of the league in the ESPN block rate stats, so I gave my second spot to Ragnow.
Right Guard: 1) Quinn Meinerz, DEN; 2) Trey Smith, KC
Right Tackle: 1) Lane Johnson, PHI; 2) Penei Sewell, DET
This was the toughest one of the offensive line positions. At one point I wanted to put Penei Sewell on my Offensive Player of the Year top five. Then I looked closer and while I know that the Detroit offense is built around him, especially the running game, the numbers just aren’t there. He ranked 19th among tackles in pass block win rate and surprisingly his run block win rate is not at the top either. I still wanted him on my ballot but Lane Johnson had a more impressive year according to advanced metrics. (Note: After I made my votes, Kevin Cole came out with his adjusted plus/minus numbers and had Sewell as the No. 2 offensive player in the entire league other than quarterbacks. It’s an interesting analysis, I think heavily based on PFF grades for offensive linemen.)
DEFENSE
Edge Rusher: 1) Trey Hendrickson, CIN and Myles Garrett, CLE; 2) Danielle Hunter, HOU and Andrew Van Ginkel, MIN
Trey Hendrickson not only led the NFL in sacks but did it without really having a strong teammate to earn attention on the other side of the defensive line. Myles Garrett was first among edge rushers in Brandon Thorn’s True Pressure Rate, which looks at not just pressures but how often a player has a high quality pressure against real blocking. Danielle Hunter led the NFL in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, with Hendrickson second and Garrett sixth. Van Ginkel is a jack-of-all-trades who can rush the passer or drop into coverage, and was a huge mover behind Minnesota’s excellent defensive season. He was tied for third in defeats with T.J. Watt at 31, and I decided to pick him and Hunter over Watt bceause Watt’s pass rush win rate and sack total were not as good as in years past. Watt would be on my third team with Micah Parsons.
Interior Lineman: 1) Zach Allen, DEN and Chris Jones, KC; 2) Leonard Williams, SEA and Cameron Heyward, PIT
Man, where do I start with Zach Allen this season? He had 46 quarterback knockdowns including nullified plays, and nobody else had more than 36. He was third in ESPN pass rush win rate among interior linemen. He was tied for second among interior linemen with 25 defeats. The guy was quietly dominant from start to finish. Chris Jones led all interior linemen in pass rush win rate and Brandon Thorn’s True Pressure Rate. Leonard Williams and Cameron Heyward were excellent all season and had 27 and 25 defeats, respectively.
Linebacker: 1) Zack Baun, PHI, Frankie Luvu, WAS, and Fred Warner, SF; 2) Blake Cashman, MIN, Daiyan Henley, LAC, and Robert Spillane, LV
Linebackers are really a feel based on a ton of different stats plus the eye test of how much they seem to take over games. Baun was an easy choice who led the NFL with both 34 defeats and being involved in 19.8% of Philadelphia’s defensive plays. (Arizona safety Budda Baker was second at 19.7%.) Warner is still at the heart of a strong defense and had a -27.6% coverage DVOA to lead all linebackers with at least 200 routes covered. Bill Barnwell made a great case for Luvu in his All-Pro team article. On to the second team, Cashman was second in the league with 32 defeats and Henley was at the heart of a significantly improved Chargers defense. Spillane is not someone often talked about but he had 27 defeats and ranked fourth in the percentage of team defensive plays with a -17.9% coverage DVOA.
Outside Cornerback: 1) Pat Surtain II, DEN and Christian Benford, BUF; 2) Jaylon Johnson, CHI and Byron Murphy Jr., MIN
These were four of the top five cornerbacks by coverage DVOA through Week 17. I went with Murphy over Chargers rookie Tarheeb Still based on man coverage. This was quite a surprise given that Minnesota is primarily a zone team, but Murphy had the highest coverage DVOA of any cornerback this season if you isolated only the snaps with man coverage!
Slot Cornerback: 1) Devon Witherspoon, SEA; 2) Garrett Williams, ARI
Witherspoon didn’t have the best coverage DVOA among slot cornerbacks, but he does so much besides just cover guys. He led all cornerbacks in run tackles but also in “pass tackle stops,” the number of times he stopped a receiver after a catch but prevented a successful gain. We know he’s excellent when blitzing as well. For the second spot, Williams was neck and neck with rookies Cooper DeJean and Tykee Smith, and I ended up going with the eye test on this one. Whenever I watched Arizona this year, I was always thinking, “Oh, there’s Garrett Williams with another incomplete pass again.”
Safety: 1) Kyle Hamilton, BAL and Kerby Joseph, DET; 2) Xaiver McKinney, GB and Budda Baker, ARI
Sports Info Solutions had Joseph as the most valuable defensive player in the league according to their Total Points formula. He made a ton of big plays, not just the nine interceptions to lead the league but also fourth-down stops like a PD on a pass to Trey McBride on a fourth-and-6 in Week 3. I went with Kyle Hamilton not because of individual stats but because of what his move to full-time safety (instead of moving around the defense all the time) meant for the Baltimore defense. From Week 1 through Week 10, the Ravens ranked 15th with -2.2% DVOA on defense. From Week 11 onwards, the Ravens had -17.3% defensive DVOA, second behind Philadelphia, and led the NFL in pass defense DVOA. On the second team, Xavier McKinney was a huge part of making the Packers defense No. 2 in DVOA on deep passes, and Budda Baker led the NFL (including Week 18) by taking part in 19.4% of Arizona’s defensive plays, with no other safety above 16.0% (Kevin Byard).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker: 1) Chris Boswell, PIT; 2) Brandon Aubrey, DAL
The top two kickers in my FG/XP values.
Punter: 1) Jack Fox, DET; 2) Corey Bojorquez, CLE
OK, so Corey Bojorquez was by far the most valuable punter this year in gross punting value according to my metrics. Gross punting value assigns an average return to each punt based on the line of scrimmage and where the punt comes down. But Bojorquez didn’t actually allow average returns. The Browns were horrible in punt coverage and actually ended up with negative net punting value. I reached out to ESPN Browns reporter Daniel Oyefusi and he definitely felt the issue was more the coverage, not Bojorquez outkicking his coverage. That made me comfortable choosing him for one of my spots. However, he also punted 84 times through Week 17. Jack Fox, who was sixth in total gross punting value, punted only 43 times because the Lions don’t punt very much. Fox was more valuable on a per-punt basis, so I went with Fox in my top spot and Bojorquez as number two.
Kick Returner: 1) KaVontae Turpin, DAL; 2) Ihmir Smith-Marsette, NYG
The top two return men in my kick return values.
Punt Returner: 1) Kalif Raymond, DET; 2) Marvin Mims, DEN
The top two return men in my punt return values. Here’s to the local kid from Holy Cross!
Special Teamer: 1) J.T. Gray, NO; 2) Jeremy Reaves, WAS
Gray led the league with 20 special teams tackles and had a blocked punt as well. Reaves was second with 17 special teams tackles and also had a marriage proposal. I may have to give up my Patriots fan credentials for not choosing Brenden Schooler for either spot.
Long Snapper: 1) Andrew DePaola, MIN; 2) Ross Matiscik, JAX
