Commanders at Buccaneers: DVOA Preview

The Washington Commanders are once again relevant. For the first time since 2020, they’re in the playoffs. For the first time since 2015, they’re in the playoffs with a winning record. Their 11.5% DVOA is their highest since 2005, the last time they won a playoff game – which just so happened to be against Sunday’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s been a roller-coaster season filled with last-second comebacks and Hail Marys, and only one game where they’ve lost by more than one possession – again, which just so happened to be against Sunday’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We’ll see if they can avoid a first-round exit like they did the last time they reached the playoffs – once again, which just so happened to be against Sunday’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Small world.

Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

One of the more interesting storylines in this game is the return of Marshon Lattimore, just in time to renew his feud with Mike Evans. This is a battle that’s not only seen a top wideout going against a top corner, but also multiple suspensions, ejections, personal fouls and unsportsmanlike conduct. Lattimore arrives just in time as Washington ranked 22nd against WR1s and 25th against WR2s. One cornerback is not going to save an entire defense, but bumping everyone down a slot has to help at least somewhat.

Not that Tampa Bay is much better in that department. The Buccaneers rank 23rd against WR1s as they’ve struggled all year long defensively as well. They’ve allowed 100-yard days to Drake London, Rashad Bateman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Adam Thielen, CeeDee Lamb and Darnell Mooney. And now they’ll be without Jordan Whitehead (out for the year after his car accident) and possibly Jamel Dean (limited in practice with a knee injury), though it looks like Antoine Winfield Jr. will return. These teams ranked 20th and 23rd in pass defense this year for a reason. They may be the shakiest secondaries in the entire postseason field.

What do you do when you’re not sure you can cover? You blitz the heck out of people, but that’s been a poor strategy against both teams this year. Tampa blitzes more than any other team in the league, but Jayden Denials ranks ninth in DVOA versus the blitz this year. Washington blitzes the third most, but that’s even worse – Baker Mayfield ranks fifth in DVOA against the blitz. These are defenses that like to gamble, and quarterbacks who like to make you pay for gambling. The over/under on this game is 50 points, the highest of the weekend, and it may not be high enough.

Washington may have to win this solely on the back of Jayden Daniels doing amazing things. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in pass defense but sixth in rush defense. In their Week 1 matchup, Tampa Bay held Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson to 50 rushing yards, while Jayden Daniels scrambled his way to 88 and took some big shots along the way. It’s tough to get a standard rushing game going with Vita Vea lined up on the other side! Despite Washington ranking seventh in rush DVOA themselves, they may want to find alternative ways to move the ball on the ground rather than running up the gut, and focus more on their passing attack.

Tampa Bay ranks 27th against passes up the middle, but that isn’t Daniels’ game. He ranked 36th out of 39 qualified passers with a 7.9% passing DVOA over the middle, including six of his nine interceptions. He’s much more comfortable throwing to the sides of the field, especially the left, where his 54.2% DVOA is second to only Baker Mayfield. Daniels throws more to his right, but the left is where he goes when he wants to make a big play – his aDOT jumps from 7.0 to 8.7. The fact that Terry McLaurin has 63 targets on the left and just 26 on the right may have something to do with that, but it’s not a classic case of Kliff Kingsbury refusing to move receivers around the formation, as McLaurin plays an even amount on both sides of field.

On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield is having a career year. His 16.8% DVOA and 1,114 passing DYAR are both career highs by a sizeable margin. A lot of it has come from being shorter and quicker than he was under previous regimes. Mayfield has seen his aDOT drop more than a yard and a half and his time to throw drop to 2.52 seconds, and that’s really increased his efficiency. Last year’s Buccaneers offense was a case of getting stuffed on the ground on first and second downs and then Baker launching a moonshot in the general direction of Mike Evans or Chris Godwin on third downs. Under Liam Coen, this year’s offensive production feels more sustainable and repeatable.

Part of that comes from the ground game not being a total vacuum as well. Tampa’s 1.9% rushing DVOA is their highest in three years. It remains to be seen if Bucky Irving can match the postseason heroics of Playoff Lenny, but the fact that first and second downs aren’t a wasteland any more for Tampa has been a huge boost to their offense as a whole. In 2024, they’re third with an 18.8% DVOA on first down, and rank a respectable 11th rushing on first. Last season, they were 25th with a -12.4% DVOA on first down, and ranked 30th when running, something they did with alarming frequency.

If Washington has a flashing weak point, it’s the amount of explosive runs they give up. Their defense allows a 12.2% explosive run rate, 31st in the league. Tampa Bay has an 11.4% explosive run rate, fifth in the league. Irving may or may not be Playoff Lenny, but Washington’s tendency to allow big plays both on the ground and the air may be their downfall in this one.