Packers at Eagles: DVOA Preview

On paper, the game of the weekend is the 2-7 game in the NFC. The 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles and 11-6 Green Bay Packers are both in the top five of DVOA, and have been rewarded with a tough match against one another. At 24.5%, the Packers have the best DVOA in the short history of seventh seeds, and would be the second best of all time if we included theoretical seventh seeds stretching all the way back to 1978. The Eagles, meanwhile, boast the best defense in the league and the best they’ve put together since 2008. It’s a rematch of the Brazil game from Week 1, but let’s hope their performance this week is a little less sloppy than that one was.

Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

The weighted DVOA below for the Eagles removes Week 18 defense and Weeks 16-18 offense (without Jalen Hurts).

The storyline leading up to the game has been the availability of the quarterbacks, but it looks like everyone will be good to go. Jordan Love was a full participant in practice on Thursday, coming off of the right elbow injury that knocked him out of Week 18. Jalen Hurts also was a full participant for the first time in two weeks. He’s still working through the concussion protocol as he has been for the past two weeks, but he’s well on track to be cleared by game time.

Hurts was very much missed in Philadelphia’s offense. They’re 13th in offensive DVOA on the season, but that jumps to ninth when he’s fully healthy. That’s not from passing, by the by – their passing DVOA only improves by 1% when you take out Tanner McKee and Kenny Pickett. Instead, the rushing DVOA jumps to 9.2% if you look at only Weeks 1-15. Some of that is the power of the Tush Push, but Saquon Barkley’s rush DVOA without Hurts was -11.5%, compared to 12.6% with him. The threat of Hurts both as a passer and a receiver opens up room for Barkley to run.

As for Barkley, analytics say that he’s had a standard very good season rather than what you’d expect from someone who nearly set the single-season rushing record. His 8.6% rushing DVOA ranks 10th this year and his 251 rushing DYAR ranks fourth. These are very good numbers and are the best totals of his career, but they’re not all-time great numbers. There is value in volume, however; no running back in football had a higher share of his team’s opportunities (rushes plus targets) than Barkley at 37.1%, and a run with Barkley is one not taken by Kenneth Gainwell or Will Shipley. Take out Barkley’s touches from Week 1-17, and Philadelphia’s offensive DVOA drops from 6.0% to 4.1%, and their rushing DVOA drops from 4.8% to -1.6%. That’s a larger drop-off than, say, Derrick Henry in Baltimore.

The Eagles have barely seen their full package of offensive weapons on the field this season. They have fewer than 125 snaps with Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert all together. Brown is nursing a knee injury, but looks to be good to go, while Goedert was activated from injured reserve in time for Week 18. In games were all four and Hurts were all healthy and active, the Eagles offensive DVOA rises to 9.3%. That’s not earth-shattering, but there’s reason to hope that Philly’s offense will be better than their season-long totals.

The Packers’ defense locks down deep shots, ranking second in DVOA on deep passes. That falls to 24th on short passes however, where Hurts’ passing DVOA rises to 32.3%, fourth in the league. Brown was third among wide receivers with 232 receiving DYAR on short passes, and DeVonta Smith wasn’t too far behind with 138 DYAR of his own. It could be a long day covering those two over the middle. Green Bay also falters some in the red zone, dropping from seventh to 24th in DVOA, while Philadelphia rises to ninth in goal-to-goal situations.

When the Packers have the ball, there’s a lot of strength versus strength to watch, especially when it comes to deep shots. Jordan Love was third in the league in DVOA on deep passes, while the Eagles were No. 1 in defense on deep passes. This is where the Packers will really miss Christian Watson, but it was actually Jayden Reed who led the team with 240 receiving DYAR on passes 15 or more yards downfield. Reed had four receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown in Brazil against Philadelphia, including a 70-yard score where he got completely lost in the Philadelphia secondary. The Eagles young corners have improved since then but those are the kinds of strikes Green Bay has excelled at this year.

In another strength-versus-strength battle, the Eagles have the No. 1 defense playing single-high safety while Love is second in DVOA against single-high safety. It will be interesting to see if Vic Fangio and company adjust here, but Philly is in single-high coverage 60.4% of the time – it’s a core part of their defensive identity.

For all the talk about throwing, however, the Packers are a team that want to run over you. They run on first down 62% of the time, second-most in the league … right behind the Eagles! Green Bay’s been a bit more successful at it than Philly, though – they have a 7.5% DVOA and 43% success rate on first-down rushes, compared to Philadelphia’s 1.1% and 40%, respectively. Barkley and Henry might get the lion’s share of the attention for running backs who switched teams and found success in their new homes, but Josh Jacobs is no slouch, either.

It’s been noted that Green Bay has come up short in their matchups against top playoff teams – not only did they lose to the Eagles in Week 1, but they went 0-4 against the Lions and Vikings, which has led some to wonder if their gaudy DVOA and advanced stats have been overly-influenced by beating up lesser opponents. This analysis misses that the Packers did beat the playoff-bound Rams and Texans, but it’s not entirely inaccurate. While the Packers’ defensive DVOA was mostly the same against playoff and non-playoff teams, their offensive DVOA dropped from 21.6% to 10.9% in their seven games against teams in the postseason.