Rams at Eagles: DVOA Preview

If you tuned into the NFL in October, you would have thought the Los Angeles Rams were d-e-a-d dead. 1-4 going into their bye week, a plethora of injuries on offense, and rumors of a Matthew Stafford trade and complete rebuild on the horizon. If you tuned into the NFL last week, you would have thought the Fearsome Foursome were back, as the Rams destroyed Sam Darnold and the Vikings 27-9, with a wild card-best 105% DVOA. And if you tuned in in between, you would have seen the Rams overwhelmed by the Philadelphia Eagles in a game not as close as the 37-20 final score would indicate. Now, we get the rematch, as Philadelphia is looking to build on a slightly stiff but still convincing win over the Packers last week. Can the Rams learn from their past mistakes and pull off the upset? Or will the Eagles reach their third NFC Championship of the past decade?

Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

Except for WEIGHTED DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games, all stats are regular-season only unless noted. WEIGHTED DVOA in this table does not include Week 18 for either team and removes Weeks 16-17 (with Jalen Hurts injured) for the Eagles.

The Week 12 Eagles-Rams game was a disaster for the Rams. Saquon Barkley had his way with their front, running for 255 yards and becoming the 12th player ever to top 300 yards total yards in a single game. Los Angeles’ run defense comes out to only a 11.5% DVOA because there was a lot of clock-chewing in the second half, but it was 46.9% specifically on runs by Barkley. Only the Giants had a tougher time shutting down Saquon than Los Angeles did. It didn’t stop there, either. A.J. Brown had six catches for 109 yards and a touchdown, Matthew Stafford was sacked five times, and only a garbage-time Cooper Kupp touchdown kept the final score respectable. Because of opponent adjustments, it is not the Rams’ worst game of the year – the Eagles are very good – but it ends up as their worst (non-Week 18) game of the year defensively and their second-worst game offensively if you look at VOA rather than DVOA.

Two major injuries may define how this game goes. Tyler Higbee was a major part of the Rams’ early game plan against Minnesota, but he was hospitalized and coughing up blood after taking a shot to the chest in the first half. Things are somewhat surprisingly trending towards him playing, which would help – the Eagles are third in DVOA against tight ends, but Higbee gives Los Angeles more of a fighting chance than Colby Parkinson. As for the Eagles, they will be missing Nakobe Dean, out with a knee injury. Dean’s 55 run stops were tied for ninth most in the league, so either Oren Burks or Jeremiah Trotter Jr. will have big shoes to fill.

49% of Philadelphia’s offensive yardage comes from the run, most in the league. That’s not all Barkley – his numbers dropped significantly when Jalen Hurts was out of the lineup – but with remnants of Barkley’s cleats still in their jerseys from November, stopping him will be priority one for the Rams. A significant chunk of Barkley’s yardage in the last game came on two big second-half runs, which is not the Rams’ normal problem.

Los Angeles’ adjusted line yards get progressively better the further away from the line you get – they rank 29th in stuffed rate, 19th in second-level yards, and 12th in open-field yards. You kill the Rams by consistent medium gains on the ground, not with huge plays. Los Angeles’ 10.3% explosive run rate allowed ranked eighth in the league.

Partly because they had a small lead, and partly because Hurts may have still been shaking off the rust after missing two weeks with a concussion, the Eagles had a hyper-conservative game plan against the Packers last week. They dropped back on just 42% of their snaps, and just 30% in the second half. Yes, the Eagles don’t drop back to pass as much as the rest of the league, but they usually average a 40% second-half dropback rate. Instead, they were content to let Hurts hand the ball off all day long. Their first-down play selection was 16 Barkley runs, one Kenneth Gainwell run, three Hurts designed runs, and just five passing plays. A 20% pass rate on first down is almost unheard of, especially in a game that had just a single-digit Eagles lead until late in the fourth quarter. Hopefully that is not a sign of Hurts being uncomfortable with his broken finger. While Hurts started the game with six straight completions, he then failed to pick up another completion until late in the third quarter.

The Rams’ defense is stronger against passes up the middle, where they rank 10th, than it is to either side, where they rank 26th and 24th. The trouble is, that’s not where the Eagles like to work. Hurts is last in the league with just 14% of his passes going to the middle of the field.

The Rams ranked first in the NFL defending wide receivers in the slot (-33.6% DVOA), but 30th in the NFL defending receivers lined out wide (23.7% DVOA). That is a terrible split to have against Philadelphia. A.J. Brown is third with 293 receiving DYAR when split out wide, and his 30.5% DVOA is third among receivers with at least 25 targets split wide. DeVonta Smith, who missed the first Rams game, is no slouch himself when split out wide, at 97 DYAR and a 11.3% DVOA. Smith does have more DYAR in the slot than out wide, but he should be perfectly fine matching up against Darious Williams or Ahkello Witherspoon lined up out wide.

When the Eagles are on defense, they need to remember one key thing: do not blitz Matthew Stafford Stafford is the best quarterback in the league against the blitz with a 32.5% DVOA, while Puka Nacua led the NFL with 5.1 yards per route run against the blitz. Stafford will rip you to shreds if you take people out of coverage. Fortunately, Vic Fangio doesn’t blitz much – the Eagles’ 23.4% blitz rate is 26th in the league.

The Eagles play mostly single-high coverage (59.0% of coverage snaps), and are very, very good at it, with the best DVOA and EPA in the coverage. That’s not great news for the Rams, either. Stafford ranks eighth in DVOA (14.3%) against two-high safeties but just 16th (6.8%) against single-high. He’s thrown five interceptions against single-high compared to just two against two-high. That being said, Puka Nacua was 11th with 153 DYAR against single-high coverage, so the Rams aren’t entirely weaponless.

The Eagles are the No. 1 defense versus both middle and deep passes, thanks to their revamped secondary. That suggests that Stafford and the Rams attack Philadelphia short and to the outside – they rank in the top 10 in those areas, too, but at least they’re not number one. Again, this is not ideal for Los Angeles, as Stafford is fifth in DVOA on deep passes and just 18th on short passes. But, once again, Puka Nacua ranked fifth with 131 DYAR on passes charted short left or short right. Nacua may need to have a monster game for the Rams to stay in this one.

The most surprising split? The Eagles rank first against the run in the red zone, but just 19th against the pass. But the Rams, surprisingly, rank just 15th in passing in the red zone! A lot of this comes from failed third and fourth downs. They have a passing DVOA of just -5.6% (22nd) and a terrible 27% success rate on late downs in the red zone.