Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
At this point, I’m running out of accolades for the Baltimore Ravens, which is going to be embarassing if they lose in the playoffs again — and despite their fantastic DVOA, that is a significant possibility.
The Ravens had a huge 31-2 victory over Houston on Christmas to boost their DVOA rating even more. All year long, the Ravens have been ranked as one of the top offenses ever tracked by DVOA since 1978. However, their defense also turned things around starting with Week 11 when they moved Kyle Hamilton to more of a typical safety role. The Ravens defense is now up to sixth in the league in DVOA, and therefore the whole package is above 40%. With one game remaining on the schedule, the Ravens are the No. 6 team in DVOA history.
| Best Total DVOA in Regular Season, 1978-2024 | |||
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | DVOA |
| 2007 | NE | 16-0 | 52.3% |
| 1991 | WAS | 14-2 | 49.5% |
| 1985 | CHI | 15-1 | 45.8% |
| 2010 | NE | 14-2 | 45.7% |
| 2023 | BAL | 13-4 | 45.5% |
| 2024 | BAL | 11-5* | 41.8% |
| 1987 | SF | 10-2** | 41.5% |
| 1996 | GB | 13-3 | 39.7% |
| 2023 | SF | 12-5 | 39.4% |
| 1995 | SF | 11-5 | 39.0% |
| 2022 | BUF | 13-3 | 38.9% |
| 2019 | BAL | 14-2 | 38.5% |
| 1995 | DAL | 12-4 | 37.6% |
| 1999 | STL | 13-3 | 36.4% |
| 2004 | NE | 14-2 | 35.9% |
| *with one game remaining | |||
| **does not include strikebreaker games | |||
Obviously, there is going to be skepticism about the Ravens given that three of the recent John Harbaugh/Lamar Jackson Ravens teams appear on this table and the other two did not even advance to the Super Bowl. Is there something linking these three teams that DVOA seems to be missing? Not that I can figure out.
One theory is that the problem with DVOA is that I don’t include most penalties, and this year’s Ravens are near the top of the league in penalties. The problem with that theory is that last year’s Ravens were below average in the number of penalties they drew, wihle the 2019 Ravens were about league average.
Another theory is that the problem with DVOA is that it overvalues big wins over bad opponents and doesn’t do enough to measure games against good opponents who might gameplan better. But that seems like an absurd complaint about the 2023 Ravens, who beat the 49ers 33-19, the Lions 38-6, and the Dolphins 56-19.
A third theory is that Lamar Jackson just sucks in the playoffs. And while Jackson has played badly in the playoffs in the past, history is filled with players who couldn’t get it done in the playoffs until the year they finally did.
Even with the Ravens DVOA so high, we’re only giving the Ravens a 17.6% chance to win the Super Bowl in our playoff odds report. They don’t get a bye. If they win their first game, they have to go on the road for the next two. They’ll probably have to play very good Buffalo and Kansas City teams to make it to the Super Bowl. There’s a very good chance that the No. 1 team in DVOA is not going to win it all, yet again. There’s a lot that goes into a quality playoff run that ends with a Super Bowl championship, and there’s a lot of random variation involved.
The Detroit Lions remain No. 2 after beating the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. Buffalo moves up one spot to No. 3, or more accurately, Green Bay moves down a spot to No. 4. However, the Packers are still second in weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games. Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Minnesota make up the rest of this year’s “Big 7.” Those are the teams with realistic chances to win the Super Bowl. There’s a possibility of a big upset, of course, but we only give the rest of the playoff teams 10.5% chance to win the Lombardi Trophy.
There has been some shifting on the level below the Big 7, however. The Chargers and Buccaneers are up this week, while the Steelers and Broncos are down. If the Broncos and Buccaneers get the final two playoff spots, as expected, it will mean that all 14 playoff teams rank in the top half of the league in DVOA. The exceptions are the 49ers, who still rank 10th, and the Bengals, who are 16th and will probably pass the Rams if they play to win and the Rams possibly sit starters in Week 18.
Also note the importance of defense this year. Usually, there are a couple of teams with terrible offenses but very good defenses hanging around the bottom half of our table. This year, the top nine defenses by DVOA are all probably going to the playoffs, assuming Denver makes it in. The top seven teams in DVOA all rank in the top nine for defense, with the other two defenses being Houston and Denver.
Full DVOA Table Through Week 17
These are the FTN DVOA ratings through 17 weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41.8% | 1 | 46.1% | 1 | 11-5 | 36.0% | 1 | -7.4% | 6 | -1.7% | 23 |
| 2 | DET | 33.1% | 2 | 30.0% | 3 | 14-2 | 20.6% | 3 | -6.9% | 7 | 5.6% | 2 |
| 3 | BUF | 27.7% | 4 | 29.6% | 5 | 13-3 | 23.7% | 2 | -6.8% | 8 | -2.8% | 28 |
| 4 | GB | 26.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 2 | 11-5 | 17.9% | 4 | -7.5% | 5 | 1.4% | 12 |
| 5 | PHI | 23.0% | 5 | 29.6% | 4 | 13-3 | 6.2% | 12 | -16.2% | 1 | 0.6% | 15 |
| 6 | KC | 21.4% | 7 | 19.7% | 6 | 15-1 | 13.1% | 8 | -6.6% | 9 | 1.7% | 10 |
| 7 | MIN | 19.4% | 6 | 14.8% | 8 | 14-2 | 5.9% | 14 | -15.3% | 3 | -1.8% | 24 |
| 8 | WAS | 11.9% | 8 | 15.5% | 7 | 11-5 | 13.2% | 7 | 3.4% | 21 | 2.1% | 9 |
| 9 | LAC | 11.7% | 12 | 13.6% | 10 | 10-6 | 6.1% | 13 | -4.7% | 11 | 0.8% | 13 |
| 10 | SF | 10.5% | 11 | 6.9% | 13 | 6-10 | 12.5% | 9 | -3.7% | 13 | -5.7% | 31 |
| 11 | TB | 10.4% | 14 | 9.2% | 12 | 9-7 | 13.4% | 6 | 1.1% | 17 | -1.9% | 26 |
| 12 | DEN | 9.9% | 9 | 13.8% | 9 | 9-7 | -4.6% | 18 | -10.0% | 4 | 4.6% | 4 |
| 13 | PIT | 6.6% | 10 | 4.6% | 15 | 10-6 | -3.9% | 17 | -4.5% | 12 | 6.0% | 1 |
| 14 | HOU | 5.6% | 13 | 0.9% | 17 | 9-7 | -12.6% | 25 | -15.4% | 2 | 2.8% | 6 |
| 15 | LAR | 5.3% | 16 | 12.2% | 11 | 10-6 | 9.1% | 10 | 2.3% | 20 | -1.4% | 22 |
| 16 | CIN | 5.3% | 17 | 5.0% | 14 | 8-8 | 15.4% | 5 | 8.8% | 29 | -1.3% | 21 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | ARI | 5.1% | 15 | -0.2% | 18 | 7-9 | 6.4% | 11 | 1.1% | 18 | -0.2% | 17 |
| 18 | SEA | 0.9% | 18 | -3.3% | 19 | 9-7 | -6.2% | 19 | -5.7% | 10 | 1.4% | 11 |
| 19 | ATL | -6.0% | 20 | -13.7% | 22 | 8-8 | 2.6% | 15 | 4.7% | 26 | -3.9% | 29 |
| 20 | MIA | -7.2% | 22 | 4.3% | 16 | 8-8 | -7.1% | 21 | 1.0% | 16 | 0.8% | 14 |
| 21 | IND | -8.2% | 19 | -9.8% | 21 | 7-9 | -6.3% | 20 | 1.2% | 19 | -0.8% | 19 |
| 22 | NO | -10.9% | 21 | -23.4% | 27 | 5-11 | -9.2% | 23 | 3.9% | 23 | 2.2% | 8 |
| 23 | DAL | -10.9% | 23 | -6.4% | 20 | 7-9 | -12.1% | 24 | 3.6% | 22 | 4.8% | 3 |
| 24 | NYJ | -15.7% | 24 | -16.9% | 26 | 4-12 | -7.5% | 22 | 6.9% | 27 | -1.2% | 20 |
| 25 | CHI | -15.8% | 25 | -14.7% | 25 | 4-12 | -13.5% | 26 | 4.7% | 25 | 2.4% | 7 |
| 26 | JAX | -16.6% | 26 | -14.4% | 23 | 4-12 | -1.5% | 16 | 18.0% | 32 | 2.9% | 5 |
| 27 | LV | -19.0% | 27 | -14.6% | 24 | 4-12 | -18.1% | 29 | 0.3% | 14 | -0.5% | 18 |
| 28 | NYG | -23.4% | 28 | -26.8% | 28 | 3-13 | -13.8% | 27 | 7.7% | 28 | -1.8% | 25 |
| 29 | TEN | -33.6% | 29 | -36.0% | 31 | 3-13 | -23.4% | 31 | 0.9% | 15 | -9.4% | 32 |
| 30 | NE | -34.2% | 30 | -34.6% | 30 | 3-13 | -19.9% | 30 | 14.8% | 30 | 0.5% | 16 |
| 31 | CAR | -35.6% | 31 | -30.1% | 29 | 4-12 | -15.3% | 28 | 18.0% | 31 | -2.3% | 27 |
| 32 | CLE | -39.7% | 32 | -37.5% | 32 | 3-13 | -30.9% | 32 | 4.5% | 24 | -4.3% | 30 |
