First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
The Minnesota Vikings are the first 14-win team in NFL history to lose out on their division and go on the road as a wild card. But they aren’t quite going on the road as usual, due to the dangerous fires breaking out all over Los Angeles. The game between the Vikings and Rams will be played in Arizona instead. The Rams will miss out on the home-field advantage but they know they’ve beaten Minnesota before, back in Week 8. Can they do it again, or will the Vikings bounce back from last week’s disappointing loss to Detroit that cost them the NFC North?
Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.
Weighted DVOA numbers for the Rams in the table below omit Week 18 where they sat starters, but the other numbers include Week 18.
| MIN (14-3) | LAR (10-7) | |
| DVOA | 16.1% (7) | 5.1% (17) |
| WEI DVOA | 9.5% (11) | 14.8% (8)* |
| Vikings on Offense | ||
| MIN OFF | LAR DEF | |
| DVOA | 2.9% (15) | 4.4% (26) |
| WEI DVOA | 5.5% (14) | -0.4% (13)* |
| PASS | 24.7% (12) | 12.5% (25) |
| RUSH | -9.6% (20) | -5.0% (21) |
| Rams on Offense | ||
| MIN DEF | LAR OFF | |
| DVOA | -15.5% (2) | 9.8% (10) |
| WEI DVOA | -8.2% (6) | 13.5% (9)* |
| PASS | -12.8% (1) | 28.8% (10) |
| RUSH | -20.2% (5) | -2.6% (11) |
| Special Teams | ||
| MIN | LAR | |
| DVOA | -2.3% (27) | -0.2% (19) |
| *Removes Week 18 game. | ||
As well as the Vikings have played all year, they are now behind the Rams if we look at weighted DVOA (more strength to the last two months) adjusted for sitting starters in Week 18. The Rams are eighth in this metric and the Vikings are 11th. The Rams have improved on both sides of the ball over the second half of the season while the Vikings defense was No. 1 in September and October but has fallen off a bit since then.
The Rams defeated the Vikings at home in Week 8. Puka Nacua announced he was coming off injured reserve and playing just a couple hours before the game, so the Vikings were not prepared for him at all. He had 106 yards. Demarcus Robinson had two touchdowns. For the Vikings, Justin Jefferson had 115 yards but all other receivers combined for only 125 yards.
Brian Flores and the Vikings love to blitz, but Matthew Stafford was either the best quarterback in the league against the blitz or No. 2 (behind Aidan O’Connell of all people) depending on what you use as your minimum number of attempts. Nacua led the NFL in yards per route run against the blitz (Jefferson was second for the Vikings). In the first game between these teams, Stafford was 13-of-15 against the blitz for 9.9 yards per reception which was worth 83 DYAR.
Although the Vikings usually play zone coverage behind their blitzes, they were actually the most efficient defense in the NFL in man coverage. Byron Murphy Jr. had the best cornerback coverage DVOA in the league in man coverage. And Stafford ranks only 21st in DVOA when the opponent is in man coverage.
The Rams offense is a surprising No. 1 in short-yardage runs (80% conversions) but Vikings are seventh on defense (59%).
The Rams are one of the most frequent teams using inside zone run concepts, and the Vikings were fourth in the NFL against inside zone runs.
The Vikings defense was only 21st in DVOA in the red zone despite being near the top of the league overall.
Although Darnold’s passing DVOA went up slightly in the second half of the year, this wasn’t because he was finding his wide receivers more. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor all saw their DVOA and DYAR drop in the second half of the season. Instead, the major difference was the return of T.J. Hockenson, who was back in the lineup the week after the Vikings lost to the Rams.
The Rams ranked first in the NFL defending wide receivers in the slot (-33.6% DVOA) and ranked 30th in the NFL defending wide receivers lined up wide (+23.7% DVOA). Sam Darnold ranked fourth in DVOA throwing to receivers in the slot, although he was only 3-of-6 against the Rams in the first game for 38 yards throwing to receivers in the slot.
Rams were 29th against deep passes and Darnold led the NFL in DYAR on deep passes. Darnold also led the NFL in DYAR on passes to the right side and the Rams are much better against passes to the middle than passes on the sides.
The Rams were tied for 27th in penalties (115) but the Vikings had the most penalties by opponents (166). The Rams drew the most DPI penalties (21, nobody else above 17) but the Vikings drew the most DPI yardage (328 on 15 penalties). Both defenses were relatively average when it came to DPI penalties.
