Chargers at Texans: DVOA Preview

The Houston Texans effectively won the AFC South by default. They are the worst of the 14 playoff teams based on weighted DVOA, with their offense declining in recent weeks. There have been all kinds of offensive line problems and they are missing wide receiver Tank Dell. The Chargers went out in Jim Harbaugh’s first season and played some real Harbaugh ball, running the ball more (not necessarily efficiently) and playing strong defense. They are favored on the road. Can they bounce the Texans out of their traditional Saturday 4:30pm playoff spot?

Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

The Chargers rank eighth in DVOA passing but only 21st running, and they are even worse when running on early downs. The Chargers are 23rd in DVOA on first-down runs and 27th on second-down runs. However, they are fifth when running on third or fourth down.

The Chargers will need to pass protect, as the Texans are No. 1 in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Their weakness is on the interior of the offensive line, as Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are both excellent at the tackle positions.

The Chargers have a good pass defense without a great pass rush, despite the presence of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Texans offensive line has had problems all season.

Chargers rookie Tarheeb Still was one of the top cornerbacks in the league with a -36.5% coverage DVOA, in part because he drew difficult coverage assignments. Derwin James had -12.4% coverage DVOA and actually spent more time this year as a slot cornerback than he did as a safety. The Texans also had one cornerback who stood out over the others; in their case it was Derek Stingley Jr. with a coverage DVOA of -27.9%.

The Chargers are second in DVOA against short passes but 21st against deep passes. However, C.J. Stroud was well below average on deep passes this season.

Stroud had the worst DVOA in the league among qualifying quarterbacks facing zone coverage. The Chargers ranked second on defense in zone coverage — and they played zone coverage 61% of the time, which ranked fifth in the NFL.

These are the two best defenses in the NFL against passes to running backs according to DVOA.

The Chargers were only 17th against the run but the Texans were poor running the ball despite Joe Mixon making the Pro Bowl. The Texans faced the highest rate of stacked boxes on offense according to FTN charting, while the Chargers ranked 31st in using stacked boxes on defense, so something will have to give.

The Texans run a lot of outside zone, while the Chargers were one of the best defenses against outside zone, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.

Will Justin Herbert run a little? The Texans defense ranked 31st in DVOA on scrambles. Only the Giants were worse.