Ravens at Bills: DVOA Preview

This is it: The marquee game of the weekend. The MVP Bowl. The top two teams in offensive DVOA are here. The Ravens were historically good, one of the top teams in DVOA history despite five losses. The Bills were also excellent, yet another great year when their window was supposed to be closing. We’ve talked all year about the AFC Big Three, the three teams with by far the best chance of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Two of them were going to have to play each other in the Divisional Round. The Kansas City Chiefs got the No. 1 seed, and so it’s the Ravens and the Bills facing off in Buffalo. Only one can advance.

These teams have already played once, back in Week 4. The Ravens won that game 35-10. It was a total domination with Derrick Henry putting up more rushing yards (199) than Josh Allen had passing yards (180). However, that Bills team was missing a number of important defensive players, primarily linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard as well as slot cornerback Taron Johnson. Those players will be back this Sunday, while the Ravens will likely be missing wide receiver Zay Flowers. Is that enough to even things out between the two teams and get Buffalo on to the AFC Championship Game?

Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

Except for WEIGHTED DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games, all stats are regular-season only unless noted.

The Ravens’ Week 4 win in Baltimore started when Derrick Henry had an 87-yard touchdown on the first play with a big Patrick Ricard block. The Bills also got killed with passes to Justice Hill: screens, dumpoffs, and one real pass pattern where Hill caught a 19-yard touchdown in the end zone. The Bills ranked 21st in DVOA against running backs as receivers this year.

Early on, the Bills had a lot of the penalties we tend to associate with the Ravens, such as offensive holding and unnecessary roughness, and it put them behind the sticks. For the season, of course, it is the Ravens who were third in the NFL in penalties, including declined and offsetting. The Bills were third in penalties drawn by their opponents.

That game is also famous for a Bills trick play that led to a strip-sack by Kyle Van Noy, but the role of that play is a bit overstated, as the game was already 21-10 midway through the third quarter. Each team fumbled twice in Week 4 and each team recovered one fumble and lost one fumble.

Since the Bills got run over by Derrick Henry in Week 4, we need to go deeper into explaining the Bills run defense here. Bills fans are generally shocked that the team ranks in the top 10 for run defense DVOA, as they were 12th in rushing yards allowed and 19th in yards allowed per carry. The issue here is that the Bills defense presented the mirror image of a “boom and bust” style running back: big gains and stuffs at the line.

Buffalo ranked fifth in adjusted line yards on defense. They were first in success on short-yardage conversions (53%) and second in stuffing runners for a loss or no gain (25%). However, the Bills were 24th in second-level yards (those that come 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and 31st in open-field yards (those that come over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage). The Bills ranked 15th in run defense DVOA on first down but ninth on second down and fourth on third/fourth down.

The Bills allowed not just the 87-yard touchdown and a 38-yard run by Henry in Week 4 but also a 58-yarder by Jonathan Taylor and a 42-yarder by Breece Hall.

The Bills were third in run defense DVOA with a stacked box. If they want to stack the box to stop Henry, they probably can. The Bills were also sixth in pass defense when there were at least seven men in the box. In fact, the Bills had a lower pass defense with seven or eight men in the box (-5.3% DVOA) than they had overall (4.3% DVOA).

The Ravens, however, were first in pass offense DVOA against a stacked box. (They were first in pretty much everything on offense this year.) Their pass offense against a stacked box (including scrambles) was 75.1% DVOA compared to an NFL average of 18.7%. (It is good to throw against stacked boxes, which will surprise nobody.)

Of course, the Ravens’ running game also includes Lamar Jackson. The Bills had an average defense against quarterback runs if you remove aborted plays. (In case you are wondering about Josh Allen running with the ball, the Ravens ranked fourth in defense against quarterback runs.)

I also checked how the Bills did against runs with fullbacks on the field, because of Ricard. They faced 30 such runs this year and were roughly average.

The Bills defense ranked 31st against passes up the middle and 30th against short passes, but they were eighth against deep passes (16+ air yards). Lamar Jackson was No. 1 in DVOA on both passes up the middle and short passes this season. Yes, the pass up the middle problem was less of a problem in the four games Matt Milano played. They were league-average in those four games. However, the weakness against short passes was not better in the four games Milano played.

Teams blitzed Lamar Jackson a lot this year (third in blitz rate on offense) but he was the third-best quarterback in the league against the blitz.

This is a weird stat: the Bills defense was horrible this year on “mid” downs, 3-6 yards to go. They were 29th on second-and-mid and 32nd on third-and-mid.

Christian Benford was second in the league in coverage DVOA among qualifying cornerbacks behind only Pat Surtain II. However, Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson had slightly below-average coverage DVOA (i.e. a little bit above zero). This is a good example of how cornerback stats are inconsistent, as Douglas and Johnson were both very good in this stat in 2023.

Dorian Williams had the worst coverage DVOA among linebackers with at least 200 coverage snaps, but of course he’s not playing as much now with Milano and Bernard both healthy.

Flipping things around to the Baltimore defense, you probably know by now that the Ravens defense completely turned things around in Week 11 by moving Kyle Hamilton back to a full-time safety position while sitting Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams. Since Week 11 and including the wild-card round, the Ravens rank third in defensive DVOA and second in pass defense behind only the Philadelphia Eagles.

Everything that looked like a weakness for the Ravens defense looks much better since Week 11:

• The Ravens were 28th against deep passes but fifth in Weeks 11-18.
• The Ravens were 24th against passes up the middle but seventh in Weeks 11-18.
• The Ravens were 24th against wide receivers lined up outside but second in Weeks 11-18. (Their defense against receivers in the slot didn’t change, and was sixth for the entire season.)
• The Ravens were 29th in DVOA against WR1 but ranked 12th in Weeks 11-18, although this matters less against a Buffalo team that doesn’t really have a WR1.

Since Week 11, the Ravens defense ranks fourth in man coverage and third in zone coverage by DVOA.

Brandon Stephens was one of the most targeted cornerbacks in the NFL but also covered more routes than any other defender. He had a positive (a.k.a. below average) coverage DVOA, while Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins were much better.

One thing that didn’t change in Week 11 was the Ravens defense on first downs, where they are most susceptible. Even since Week 11, the Ravens rank 24th in defensive DVOA on first downs. They are below average against both passes and runs on first downs. On the other hand, since Week 11, the Ravens rank second in defense on second downs and first on third and fourth downs. Remember that DVOA compares situations to similar situations, so even if the Ravens have a strong defensive DVOA in second-and-short or third-and-short, it’s still better for the Bills to get into those short-yardage situations with successful first downs because the league average that we’re comparing the Ravens to is much better in short-yardage situations. Or, just get 10 yards on first down and skip the other downs altogether.

The Bills offense was surprisingly just 20th in DVOA passing on first downs compared to fifth rushing the ball. However, because passing is more efficient than rushing, this still meant the Bills had a higher DVOA passing (15.0%) than rushing (8.3%) on first downs. The Bills were much better passing on second and third downs. They ranked second on each one behind… Baltimore, of course.

These were also the top two offenses in the red zone by DVOA.

The Bills and Ravens did not take many sacks, ranking first and fourth in the league in adjusted sack rate, respectively. Jackson and Allen were also two of the top three quarterbacks in DVOA under pressure.

By adjusted line yards, the Baltimore run defense was much stronger against runs to the left and up the middle than against runs to the offensive right side. However, the Bills offense was also stronger on runs to the left and up the middle.

These were two of the top offenses on screen passes although the Bills were much better on defense against screens than the Ravens, and the Ravens are missing their top wide receiver screen guy with Zay Flowers likely out. Tylan Wallace takes over that role. Flowers led the Ravens in receiving yards but Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews had more value by DYAR. Nelson Agholor only caught 48% of his intended passes because he is Nelson Agholor.

A big reason why the Ravens ended up with some of those close losses: In late-and-close situations (second half or overtime, score within eight points) the Ravens ranked No. 2 on offense and No. 31 on defense.

Neither team was strong on special teams this season. Both kickers were particularly disappointing this year compared to their past performance. Tyler Bass had the worst negative value of his career (-2.4 points vs. expectation) and Justin Tucker had the first negative value of his career (-5.1 points vs. expectation).

The weather report is calling for a high of 13 degrees on Sunday night with a chance of snow. Will this favor the Ravens’ running game, or the Bills who are used to practicing in the cold? (Baltimore can get pretty cold, but it’s not Buffalo.) Winds should be light.